leprechaunlink727
Smash Ace
Personally, I don't believe we've seen anything yet that proves it fake beyond a shadow of a doubt. Nonetheless, as more info comes out about the game from official sources, it's starting to look dire.
A glance over the active threads in the leaks group proved to me that no, they don't have a bunch of info we haven't already discussed in this thread. **** the long analysis I posted a while back (thanks for adding it to the OP though, I'll PM you when/if I update it), here's a simple list of pros and cons and the common arguments detractors of each side use to discredit them.
Here's a quick list of what the leak has gotten right so far. All of this is confirmed directly by official sources, save for the return of Stage Builder, which came from Amazon:
-The November 21st release date, down to it specifically being for the US A fairly safe guess, although the specific mention of for the US adds a smidge more credibility
-Onett Could be written off as a safe guess as well
-Smashville Nobody really expected this stage to come back, and the fact that it is despite its overt similarity to Town & City lends credibility to the leak's claim that every series gets at least one retro stage on the Wii U
-A stage prominently involving Great Fox Name was wrong
-A stage based on Game & Wario Name was wrong
-The return of Stage Builder People were about 50/50 on whether this feature would return. Its limitations in Brawl made most people consider it mostly superfluous despite being a fun feature, and it also created a data vulnerability within the game that opened the floodgates for modding. I don't think this is a particularly lucky guess. Many people speculated on the return of Stage Builder, but it was just as frequently considered to be, like Snake and the SSE, a "Brawl Only" experiment that would not be returning. I'm giving this one to the leak.
Here's a list of what the leak has gotten wrong, as in: it directly contradicts the text of the leak:
-The Starfox stage is called "Orbital Gate", and while it prominently features the Great Fox, there is a lot more to it
-The Game & Wario stage is called "Gamer" and focuses on one specific minigame as opposed to all of Game & Wario
These are fair points. The names in the leak are incorrect, and they do not accurately describe the complete nature of these stages. However, it is reasonable to think that the leaker was working from limited information, saw an untranslated version of the game, or simply did not have a working knowledge of Star Fox: Assault or Game & Wario, both of which sold not so well and were met with a critical "meh", making them far from "big" Nintendo games. This could go either way.
-We saw a tease of what appears to be a new Kirby stage based on The Great Cave Offensive from Kirby Super Star. None of the three new Kirby stages included in the leak mention The Great Cave Offensive.
We have seen ONE picture of this stage, which didn't mention a name or really even elaborate on any specific mechanics. I think it is pretty clearly the Great Cave Offensive, and I agree that if we receive further information on this stage and there's absolutely no way the leaker could have mistaken it for Mt. Dedede or Cookie Country, we should consider the leak debunked. However, this is still very ambiguous, so UNTIL we find out more, this really isn't useful evidence either way.
-A list of names was found on the ROM dump that featured AI NPC characters, specifically stage hazards and smash run enemies, and included multiple mentions of Ridley, two of which were junk data left over from Brawl and one of which appears to be new.
This certainly doesn't look good for Ridley, although it could be old/unused data. Until we see Ridley, at long last, as a stage hazard, this is still soft evidence.
-Unused sound files on the ROM, as well as the Amazon listing suggest that Event Matches are returning.
Things are still a little bit ambiguous here, but the leaker did say specifically that Event Matches weren't coming back. Because they were also mentioned in the Amazon listing, I'm giving this to the detractors.
-There is a "board game mode", some kind of "mission mode" featuring Master and Crazy Hand, something called "Smash World", which may be the name of one of the two preceding modes, and perhaps an 8-player multiplayer mode.
We know that these things may exist, but we know **** all about any of them, with the only direct acknowledgement from Nintendo coming from an ambiguous PotD where the key information was literally censored. 8-player has not been confirmed by any official source of any kind, and seems like exactly the kind of feature that could have been planned and then scrapped because it was too chaotic. We need more official information on these modes before we can use them to disconfirm anything. It's total speculation right now. Not to mention the fact that the leaker may have simply not mentioned these modes, preferring to focus on Tower of Smash.
CONCLUSION:
Neither #TeamReal nor #TeamFake has enough evidence to support its side that is not either circumstantial or cannot be countered by equally credible arguments. We are in the same place we have been for weeks, the same place we have been basically since the leak was posted. There is evidence for it, and there is evidence against it, all of which is still extremely ambiguous due to the very limited info we have been getting from Sakurai for the past few weeks. Unused Data seems to be the biggest thorn in the leak's side, but unused data is not hard evidence of anything, otherwise Mewtwo would have been in Brawl. It has become obvious that some of the unused data is relevant to modes on the Wii U, but that doesn't mean all of it is. The leaker has gotten several things completely right and a few things ambiguously right, but none it is signifcantly out there enough to consider it confirmed. Nothing has yet substantiated the leak's claims about certain stages, five new characters, and the Tower of Smash mode itself other than a Neogaf post, and all of it is still possible given what little we know at the moment. We simply need more information before we can consider this an outright fake. Everybody needs to chill the **** out and wait for the inevitable Direct.
Personally, I propose we close this thread until something worth talking about comes along. We've been talking in circles for weeks. It's unproductive, and it's getting nasty. Pages and pages have been devoted to picking apart other leaks which are clearly fake, simply because people are bored. Go play the 3DS version guys. If you don't have it, go play outside.
A glance over the active threads in the leaks group proved to me that no, they don't have a bunch of info we haven't already discussed in this thread. **** the long analysis I posted a while back (thanks for adding it to the OP though, I'll PM you when/if I update it), here's a simple list of pros and cons and the common arguments detractors of each side use to discredit them.
Here's a quick list of what the leak has gotten right so far. All of this is confirmed directly by official sources, save for the return of Stage Builder, which came from Amazon:
-The November 21st release date, down to it specifically being for the US A fairly safe guess, although the specific mention of for the US adds a smidge more credibility
-Onett Could be written off as a safe guess as well
-Smashville Nobody really expected this stage to come back, and the fact that it is despite its overt similarity to Town & City lends credibility to the leak's claim that every series gets at least one retro stage on the Wii U
-A stage prominently involving Great Fox Name was wrong
-A stage based on Game & Wario Name was wrong
-The return of Stage Builder People were about 50/50 on whether this feature would return. Its limitations in Brawl made most people consider it mostly superfluous despite being a fun feature, and it also created a data vulnerability within the game that opened the floodgates for modding. I don't think this is a particularly lucky guess. Many people speculated on the return of Stage Builder, but it was just as frequently considered to be, like Snake and the SSE, a "Brawl Only" experiment that would not be returning. I'm giving this one to the leak.
Here's a list of what the leak has gotten wrong, as in: it directly contradicts the text of the leak:
-The Starfox stage is called "Orbital Gate", and while it prominently features the Great Fox, there is a lot more to it
-The Game & Wario stage is called "Gamer" and focuses on one specific minigame as opposed to all of Game & Wario
These are fair points. The names in the leak are incorrect, and they do not accurately describe the complete nature of these stages. However, it is reasonable to think that the leaker was working from limited information, saw an untranslated version of the game, or simply did not have a working knowledge of Star Fox: Assault or Game & Wario, both of which sold not so well and were met with a critical "meh", making them far from "big" Nintendo games. This could go either way.
-We saw a tease of what appears to be a new Kirby stage based on The Great Cave Offensive from Kirby Super Star. None of the three new Kirby stages included in the leak mention The Great Cave Offensive.
We have seen ONE picture of this stage, which didn't mention a name or really even elaborate on any specific mechanics. I think it is pretty clearly the Great Cave Offensive, and I agree that if we receive further information on this stage and there's absolutely no way the leaker could have mistaken it for Mt. Dedede or Cookie Country, we should consider the leak debunked. However, this is still very ambiguous, so UNTIL we find out more, this really isn't useful evidence either way.
-A list of names was found on the ROM dump that featured AI NPC characters, specifically stage hazards and smash run enemies, and included multiple mentions of Ridley, two of which were junk data left over from Brawl and one of which appears to be new.
This certainly doesn't look good for Ridley, although it could be old/unused data. Until we see Ridley, at long last, as a stage hazard, this is still soft evidence.
-Unused sound files on the ROM, as well as the Amazon listing suggest that Event Matches are returning.
Things are still a little bit ambiguous here, but the leaker did say specifically that Event Matches weren't coming back. Because they were also mentioned in the Amazon listing, I'm giving this to the detractors.
-There is a "board game mode", some kind of "mission mode" featuring Master and Crazy Hand, something called "Smash World", which may be the name of one of the two preceding modes, and perhaps an 8-player multiplayer mode.
We know that these things may exist, but we know **** all about any of them, with the only direct acknowledgement from Nintendo coming from an ambiguous PotD where the key information was literally censored. 8-player has not been confirmed by any official source of any kind, and seems like exactly the kind of feature that could have been planned and then scrapped because it was too chaotic. We need more official information on these modes before we can use them to disconfirm anything. It's total speculation right now. Not to mention the fact that the leaker may have simply not mentioned these modes, preferring to focus on Tower of Smash.
CONCLUSION:
Neither #TeamReal nor #TeamFake has enough evidence to support its side that is not either circumstantial or cannot be countered by equally credible arguments. We are in the same place we have been for weeks, the same place we have been basically since the leak was posted. There is evidence for it, and there is evidence against it, all of which is still extremely ambiguous due to the very limited info we have been getting from Sakurai for the past few weeks. Unused Data seems to be the biggest thorn in the leak's side, but unused data is not hard evidence of anything, otherwise Mewtwo would have been in Brawl. It has become obvious that some of the unused data is relevant to modes on the Wii U, but that doesn't mean all of it is. The leaker has gotten several things completely right and a few things ambiguously right, but none it is signifcantly out there enough to consider it confirmed. Nothing has yet substantiated the leak's claims about certain stages, five new characters, and the Tower of Smash mode itself other than a Neogaf post, and all of it is still possible given what little we know at the moment. We simply need more information before we can consider this an outright fake. Everybody needs to chill the **** out and wait for the inevitable Direct.
Personally, I propose we close this thread until something worth talking about comes along. We've been talking in circles for weeks. It's unproductive, and it's getting nasty. Pages and pages have been devoted to picking apart other leaks which are clearly fake, simply because people are bored. Go play the 3DS version guys. If you don't have it, go play outside.
'ad?
