Tomafia 4: Game Over - Mafia Wins!

[Lore]

I'll only be responding to two points there, seeing the rest of it as pretty invalid. "Confirmation bias!" isn't exactly the best defense.

...what?

My argument in my defense being valid makes *no difference* to my defense? That is almost literally nonsense.

Since you later conclude that my argument is actually invalid, it may be something of a moot point for you. But to me it strikes me as another example of confirmation bias.

If valid arguments in my defense make no difference, I'm really not sure what I can say.

You've misunderstood me here, it seems.

Let's say that someone gets murdered in a small town. Cops are investigating it, but someone from across town and with no connections to the victim shows up at the station. They loudly testify, "This person died? They were nice and had no issues with anyone! If I was a murderer, I would have no reason to kill them at all!"

Yeah it's technically a valid argument, but wouldn't you suspect the person who brought it up out of nowhere?


The above example is very much simplified, but I think you get my point.

If I'm understanding correctly, what you're saying is that bringing up the fact that I had a correct read on Pythag earns me some town cred, and therefore would be beneficial to me as scum?

I guess there's some truth to that, although I personally think it would be less valuable to scum-Medi than a living Pythag with a slight town-lean.

However, if I wanted to increase my credibility with the town, why wouldn't I have identified *another* player as strong-town (one who didn't have a town read on me) and NKed them instead? From the perspective of the scum-Medi that you've imagined who set up this to bolster his town credibility, wouldn't this be easily the preferable option? Bolster my town cred with the rest of the players, while *also* leaving alive the player with whom I presumably already had some amount of town cred?

That said, I acknowledge that part of the reason I initially brought up my read on Pythag was in hopes that it would help me seem more credible to the town. I don't really think that's scummy, given that every player in this game should want to increase their credibility with the town.

Uh yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying.

Sure, killing someone else might have been more useful to get extra town cred. There's also the argument that killing a player with a town read on you (with the flip confirming the player as Town) strengthens your position, since their read on you came from a town perspective. However, this is all WIFOM at that point and is muddling things.

But here you freely admit that you brought up your Pythag read to increase your credibility. I bolded it in the quote for emphasis. I fail to see how "lol guys my town read was right! Look at me being Good Town!" can't be seen as scummy, or at minimum highly suspicious.

I kind of feel like most of your points fall apart if they're not read with the presumption of "Medi is scum" already in place. We'll see what the rest of the players think, I guess.

All that said, I actually don't think I would be a horrible lynch right now (as townie lynches go). I've honestly been struggling to make any meaningful contribution to town (hopefully I'm just out of practice and not getting dumber), and I feel like my lynch would be reasonably information-rich for the town. I'd prefer to live, but that has more to do with the numbers than any value I feel like I'd have as an actual player.

I'm sure Werekill will look at that statement and interpret it as some kind of scum headgame or meta-play or something, but really I've just been floundering all game. It's a novel and unpleasant experience.

I sympathize with you as a player and human here, and my following statement is made with all due respect and kindness, zero offense intended.

But this is an absolute pile of emotional appeal here instead of concrete defense. I see no reason to consider it a valid defense, and my Scum read firmly remains.

 

[Lore]

Nah I don't have a counterpoint, this is all pretty compelling to me. I kind of just thought of the Cop stuff on a whim. With the odds listed out like how you describe it makes sense to chill on the Cop stuff.

I'm all for figuring out a way for a Cop to get their stuff out there. That method just seemed a bit risky, and I'd rather explore other options.

Did you ever respond to my questions towards you Re: Rockin? It was in my reads list.

 

[Strong Badam]

I'm assuming this is what you're talking about?

Rockin I read <pi + Rockin as the usual D1 read, with both as scum leans. <pi's behavior grew worse as the day went on, while Rockin's didn't get much worse iirc. Given this, Rockin's D2 behavior so far, and my earlier post about odds, I'm more comfortable seeing this slot less as Scum. Not even close to a Town lean, but certainly much better than my D1 read. I disagree with the --- vote, as previously stated.

^Question for Strong Badam on Rockin : You noted that <pi frequently mentioned Rockin as a scum read; do you think that this was a Bus attempt, or an attempt to just deflect off themselves to the next lynch candidate? I got the vibe that they were trying to do that with other things near the end of D1, not to mention the Cop claim attempt. I'm leaning towards it being deflection, but I want to hear your thoughts.

I think this was deflection and not busing. I don't have reason to believe that Pi was certain of his own demise at that point in time. As of right now, I feel that the most indicative thing Pi did on D1 was overreact to the RVS vote on ---, that in tandem with the weird breadcrumbing/role reveal nonsense, and general lack of meaningful contribution (see other posts from me on page 8) is why I still feel that --- is scum. I am uncertain if <Pi would have done the same to a vote on a Townie, but that gets hazy.
Obviously the stuff from Pi at the end of D1 was just hopeless flailing, I don't think it's going to be of much value to look into with any depth.

 

[Mediocre]

I'll only be responding to two points there, seeing the rest of it as pretty invalid. "Confirmation bias!" isn't exactly the best defense.

I think it's a pretty reasonable defense, seeing as a decent number of your points against me consist of some variation of "this wouldn't normally be scummy, but it looks scummy to me because I already see Mediocre as scum."

I'm not saying circumstantial evidence can't help form a pattern, but when the circumstantial evidence wouldn't actually even hint at scumminess on its own, it's not actually meaningful evidence.

You've misunderstood me here, it seems.

Let's say that someone gets murdered in a small town. Cops are investigating it, but someone from across town and with no connections to the victim shows up at the station. They loudly testify, "This person died? They were nice and had no issues with anyone! If I was a murderer, I would have no reason to kill them at all!"

Yeah it's technically a valid argument, but wouldn't you suspect the person who brought it up out of nowhere?


The above example is very much simplified, but I think you get my point.

It's simplified to the point of complete irrelevance.

Unlike in your example, in the game I was already under suspicion as scum, and therefore under suspicion for the "murder" in your metaphor. I knew I was under suspicion. If someone who knew they were a suspect in a murder approached the cops and told them, "it actually wouldn't have made sense for me to kill the victim because of ____", that sounds a lot more reasonable, and is much closer to what actually happened in the game. That suspect wouldn't be immediately cleared by the cops, but the cops (if they were good cops) would take that information into consideration.

You've apparently decided it would have been to scum-Medi's benefit to NK Pythag, and that's fine. But representing my position with some incredibly strawman metaphor is not fair, and only serves to reinforce my feeling that you're operating with a significant confirmation bias.

Uh yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying.

I'm glad I understood you correctly, but I'm not sure why you're being snarky. Restating your opponent's positions helps clarify things, and makes sure you aren't misinterpreting or mischaracterizing their points.

Sure, killing someone else might have been more useful to get extra town cred. There's also the argument that killing a player with a town read on you (with the flip confirming the player as Town) strengthens your position, since their read on you came from a town perspective. However, this is all WIFOM at that point and is muddling things.

I feel like it's muddling things because it makes sense, it would be an obvious move for scum-Medi to have made, and it doesn't fit with the conclusion you have already reached.

I'm really not sure why hypothetical scum-Medi wouldn't have made that incredibly simple, unambiguously beneficial change to the play you propose he made.

But here you freely admit that you brought up your Pythag read to increase your credibility. I bolded it in the quote for emphasis. I fail to see how "lol guys my town read was right! Look at me being Good Town!" can't be seen as scummy, or at minimum highly suspicious.

I don't really have anything to say to this, because I disagree that it's suspicious, but I don't think I can convince you otherwise.

That said, "quoting" someone while giving them a dumb voice is a tactic for mockery, not a tactic for friendly argument. Can you please not do that?

I sympathize with you as a player and human here, and my following statement is made with all due respect and kindness, zero offense intended.

But this is an absolute pile of emotional appeal here instead of concrete defense. I see no reason to consider it a valid defense, and my Scum read firmly remains.

Oh, it's not a defense at all. I didn't expect it to change anyone's reads, nor should it. I'm just acknowledging that my participation in this game so far has been lackluster, and I'm fairly frustrated that I haven't been able to contribute more. But that frustration has nothing to do with the fact that I'm a lynch candidate right now. I'd be feeling the same frustration now whether I was scum or town, because either way my play has been living up to my username.

 

[Strong Badam]

I'm on Werekill's side here on a few things for sure. While I'm pretty neutral on a lot of this back and forth conversation (There's so much WIFOM going on ), the emotional appeal and communicated frustration with your own play aren't doing anyone any favors. Appeal to emotion is typically scummy behavior and doing so when someone is grilling you with a scumlean is counterproductive. And if you are town, self-deprecation of your own skill/contributions isn't going to help town no matter which way you slice it, it's more likely to just set you up for a policy lynch if we don't have any more appealing lynch targets. If you're in this game to win for town, I'd say you should try to contribute more outside of just responding to Werekill's queries. He's really set on his reads of you and this 1v1 is more likely to just make more folks want to lynch you, myself included.

Also, agreed on the mockery statement re: Werekill, I'll join Mediocre in politely asking that you please be nicer during argumentation Lore . We've mentioned it before in this game.

 

[Strong Badam]

Looking for contribution from Matunas TewnLeenk . We got some good stuff from you two yesterday, whereas Werekill and Medi were in contrast less active yesterday and more active today. Let's try to get everyone somewhat active and contributing thoughts/reads today so we're set up for tomorrow's final vote, yeah?


--- has some queries to answer as well whenever he has time.

 

[Matunas]

I just got to a computer and am reading right now. A LOT has been said since last night, so it'll be a few but I'll get a post up before too long.

 

[Lore]

I feel like SB's post sums it up pretty well, and I will use it instead of responding and continuing the discussion.

I'm on Werekill's side here on a few things for sure. While I'm pretty neutral on a lot of this back and forth conversation (There's so much WIFOM going on ), the emotional appeal and communicated frustration with your own play aren't doing anyone any favors. Appeal to emotion is typically scummy behavior and doing so when someone is grilling you with a scumlean is counterproductive. And if you are town, self-deprecation of your own skill/contributions isn't going to help town no matter which way you slice it, it's more likely to just set you up for a policy lynch if we don't have any more appealing lynch targets. If you're in this game to win for town, I'd say you should try to contribute more outside of just responding to Werekill's queries. He's really set on his reads of you and this 1v1 is more likely to just make more folks want to lynch you, myself included.

Also, agreed on the mockery statement re: Werekill, I'll join Mediocre in politely asking that you please be nicer during argumentation Lore . We've mentioned it before in this game.

This 1v1 isn't really progressing anything new. I'm very much set in my Scum read on you, Medi, and we are just arguing circles at this point. There's no "win" state in this argument for either of us, and maybe it's best to stop it before it gets heated.

As for the mockery: if it helps, it wasn't intended to mock you. It was meant as a over-simplification of your statement, with the tone meant to convey that it wasn't meant as a complete representation of every point you made. I wanted to make it more absurd in order for it to be clear that the statement wasn't intended to be read as your literal words or an exact quote.

If it bothered you, I will happily refrain from doing that again.

 

[Lore]

I'm assuming this is what you're talking about?

I think this was deflection and not busing. I don't have reason to believe that Pi was certain of his own demise at that point in time. As of right now, I feel that the most indicative thing Pi did on D1 was overreact to the RVS vote on ---, that in tandem with the weird breadcrumbing/role reveal nonsense, and general lack of meaningful contribution (see other posts from me on page 8) is why I still feel that --- is scum. I am uncertain if <Pi would have done the same to a vote on a Townie, but that gets hazy.
Obviously the stuff from Pi at the end of D1 was just hopeless flailing, I don't think it's going to be of much value to look into with any depth.

I'm starting to feel similarly on the Rockin V <pi being deflection, but I'm keeping my null read on Rockin for now. It's slowly growing into a town lean given the <pi data, but it's slow.

As for your --- justification, I think that's fair. --- remains as a town lean for me given my previous statements, but I'm not in "why the hell is anyone against ---" mode, if that makes sense. I don't see my read on --- changing unless big stuff happens toDay.

 

[Mediocre]

the emotional appeal and communicated frustration with your own play aren't doing anyone any favors. Appeal to emotion is typically scummy behavior and doing so when someone is grilling you with a scumlean is counterproductive. And if you are town, self-deprecation of your own skill/contributions isn't going to help town no matter which way you slice it, it's more likely to just set you up for a policy lynch if we don't have any more appealing lynch targets.

I really just wanted to whine a little. Emotional appeals really aren't in my mafia playbook. It's unfortunate that it read that way.

If you're in this game to win for town, I'd say you should try to contribute more outside of just responding to Werekill's queries.

That's fair. I'll try to maintain activity while focusing far less on any self-defense.

He's really set on his reads of you and this 1v1 is more likely to just make more folks want to lynch you, myself included.

I'm somewhat surprised to hear that. I really do feel like a lot of Werekill's points are predicated on shaky logic and a predetermination that I'm scum.

Oddly, upon consideration that opinion also shifts me to a very strong town read on Werekill. I don't think a scum player would push so vehemently for my lynch when so much of it steams from a (in my opinion) blinkered view and strange twists in logic. I acknowledge this may be a point of view stemming from my own bias, since it's generally harder for people to see their own play as scummy, and therefore more likely that I'm being unfair to Werekill's arguments, Nonetheless, my point of view is the only one I have to work from, and from that PoV it wouldn't make sense for a scum-Werekill to push as hard against me as he's been doing, especially when he's got what looks like an easy --- lynch lined up.

As for the mockery: if it helps, it wasn't intended to mock you. It was meant as a over-simplification of your statement, with the tone meant to convey that it wasn't meant as a complete representation of every point you made. I wanted to make it more absurd in order for it to be clear that the statement wasn't intended to be read as your literal words or an exact quote.

If it bothered you, I will happily refrain from doing that again.

I don't want to harp on this, but I will say that repeating something someone said in a goofy tone of voice is an incredibly common and basic form of mockery. It kind of annoyed me, and I feel like very few people would have read it as it was apparently intended.

 

[TewnLeenk]

These Reggie avatars are throwing me off. I love it.

So I'm still leaning slightly towards --- because I just don't know what they're doing. I was originally pretty set and ready to vote for them but after reading some of the arguments about the gambit or whatever, I'm kinda backing off a bit. I'm still reading them as scum but it's not as severe as it was yesterday.

Mediocre's been a roller coaster for me. I was initially suspicious of them because of the whole <pi thing, but after their post #301 I was going to back off a bit. BUT THEN Werekill came in and dropped that #321 heat on us and I've been mulling it over for a while now. Now I'm back to reading scum on Mediocre.

I firmly believe that my vote will go to one of these two players, but right now I'm not sure who. They're the only two in the game that I'm getting real scum vibes on right now. I guess it'll come down to what they say coming up to the end of Day 2.

 

[Mediocre]

It's unfortunate that it read that way.

Just to be clear, this isn't me saying "how could anyone have interpreted it as an emotional appeal?" I knew it might be interpreted as such when I made it, but I just really wanted to whine a bit.

I don't expect I'll have that compulsion again.

 

[Lore]

I feel like the nature of text conversations hurt there, too. My body language would have more clearly conveyed what I meant. Regardless, I apologize for doing something that could be read as mockery, and I will do my best to refrain from doing so again in the future.

As for the emotional appeal, I could definitely see the frustration there behind the words. I just wanted to be clear that I wouldn't let it affect my read.

 

[Matunas]

Okay. So a ton of stuff was just talked about. In the end it seems to boil down to a couple major things that I am reading into.

Pythag, to me, felt like a semi-random lynch. As others have previously stated, he posted pretty clear reads and was well spoken, but otherwise didn’t come out as a huge voice in the discussion. He may have been a pick to avoid protection by going for someone who wasn’t expected, or as a setup for something else.

Mediocre - Now I know a lot of this has been covered in the Werekill/Medi back and forth, but these are the specific moments that stood out when I was reading things over, and made note of a lot of them before getting through the more recent posts. In post 245 Medi explains that he has a strong town read on Pythag (stronger than he may have ever had on D1 before). This is his last read before the end of the day. Then, after results have been revealed at the start of D2, his post 271 states “At least his read was right.” This all comes across as a method to become associated with the one confirmed townie available. In 301 he does this again. What I find important to note is that this association started at the end of D1, right before the lynch occurred, and someone (Pythag) would be killed at night. Medi’s post 320 openly states that an association is what he is trying to do and then adds in a heavy emotional appeal. With the way it all went down, to me it appears like the intended association was made and could have been done with the NK in mind. I’ve had a pretty null read on Medi until recently, but all of this gives me more of a scum lean now.

With that in mind I still feel --- ’s posts don’t hold up. The only hard stance that he ever took was on Rockin at the end of D1 post 234. There he says he would have liked to see <pi around till D2. Up to this point he still hasn’t given any reads on people but town or null, saying he has scum-leans in 303. I think Rockin’s 290 sums up what could have happened with the role stuff as well. SB’s 316 calls out the questionable logic behind the recent clarifications, and I agree with his questioning . As of now --- has given the least amount of solid material outside of a strange role gambit. I am okay keeping my vote on him for now.

Rockin Hey man. You've been pretty quiet overall D2. Any thoughts? A lot is going on.

Strong Badam I think (for the most part) people have been pretty clear on reads, and if there is a cop with any information flips will likely reveal a lot.

TewnLeenk You're reads seem to line up a lot with the majority of others so far. Anything else standing out to you at all?

Mediocre You've been heavily involved in a defense/debate right now. So outside of the current suspicion on you, where do you stand? You seem to have town(ish) reads on Werekill and SB. Do you have any real scum reads you think would make a solid lynch? Anything else you think would provide useful information with what is going on D2?

--- Outside of the role stuff and all of that where do you stand? You said you wanted to hear from Medi. How do you feel about the current Werekill/Mediocre discussion now? Since you are one of the two people currently standing out as a potential lynch, what/who do you think we should be focusing on today instead?

 

[Matunas]

TewnLeenk You're reads seem to line up a lot with the majority of others so far. Anything else standing out to you at all?

I really want to edit the "You're" I hate it so much.

 

[TewnLeenk]

TewnLeenk You're reads seem to line up a lot with the majority of others so far. Anything else standing out to you at all?

Honestly, not really. I'm pretty dead set on the two users that I mentioned earlier. They're really the only 2 that I have scum reads that I feel pretty good about on. There's been a few minor instances here and there like Werekill's aggressiveness or Rockin's silence, but overall they don't cause me to raise an eyebrow as much as the first two players.

 

[Tom]

Vote Count:
--- (2): Matunas, Rockin
Mediocre (1): Werekill
Not voting (4): TewnLeenk, ---, Mediocre, Strong Bad

Day 2 will end Tuesday, April 2 at 5:30 pm CST or when a player reaches 4/7 votes.

 

[Strong Badam]

Most of Matunas post lines up with where I stand right now. --- and Mediocre remain by far the best lynch picks at the moment. I particularly appreciate Matunas direct links to posts with his reasoning for these two.

Rockin has been rather quiet today and TewnLeenk has more or less said nothing particularly controversial all game, not really being a driving force in conversation or discussion occurring either. It is possible that he has slipped under most of our radars by being generally agreeable, skirting by on the perception that this is normal inexperienced Town behavior given this is his first Mafia game.

My reads haven't changed since the previous day. If anyone hasn't posted their reads, I think you should by this evening or I'll start tagging people with pokes about it. I will try to compile an updated list of everyone's reads as well after work.

 

[Matunas]

Rockin has been rather quiet today and TewnLeenk has more or less said nothing particularly controversial all game, not really being a driving force in conversation or discussion occurring either. It is possible that he has slipped under most of our radars by being generally agreeable, skirting by on the perception that this is normal inexperienced Town behavior given this is his first Mafia game.

This is something I have been trying to keep in mind whenever I read through the thread. It is also why I have been trying to prompt Tewn to speak up more and voice opinions. It is very easy to read him as new townie.

 

[Lore]

Yeah we need more reads from more people. Thanks for the detailed post Matuna.

I'm still 100% for Medi, but - - - not doing much is kinda weird. I still have them as a Vanilla Town read due to the gambit, and I'm still opposed to their lynch.

But I'm not going to call out people anymore and be confused why they are against him. My read remains, and I'd rather convince people to go for Medi, now that I recognize why people are against - - -.

Seriously though, Medi is distinctly worse imo. I distinctly read - - - as town due to the bad gambit.

 

[---]

Woke up and am going to work. Will vote in the morning.

 

[Rockin]

Rockin has been rather quiet today and TewnLeenk has more or less said nothing particularly controversial all game, not really being a driving force in conversation or discussion occurring either. It is possible that he has slipped under most of our radars by being generally agreeable, skirting by on the perception that this is normal inexperienced Town behavior given this is his first Mafia game.

Just haven't had much to say in the matter. There's some thoughts, but at the end of the day, would rather go for a --- lynch because I feel he's lying.

Because I'm the Vanilla Townie

Yeah we need more reads from more people. Thanks for the detailed post Matuna.

I'm still 100% for Medi, but - - - not doing much is kinda weird. I still have them as a Vanilla Town read due to the gambit, and I'm still opposed to their lynch.

But I'm not going to call out people anymore and be confused why they are against him. My read remains, and I'd rather convince people to go for Medi, now that I recognize why people are against - - -.

Seriously though, Medi is distinctly worse imo. I distinctly read - - - as town due to the bad gambit.

Bad gambit or not, he's still pretty scummy

 

[Matunas]

Rockin In this setup there is 1 mafia PR, 1 goon, 2 town PR, and 5 vanilla town. So there are 5 vanilla townies total. When you say "I'm the Vanilla Townie" it makes it sound like you think there is only 1. Just checking to understand your intent there.

Any thoughts on any of the other events for the day? Medi and Werekill being the biggest, but there are still other things. Any general reads beyond ---?

 

[Lore]

Rockin In this setup there is 1 mafia PR, 1 goon, 2 town PR, and 5 vanilla town. So there are 5 vanilla townies total. When you say "I'm the Vanilla Townie" it makes it sound like you think there is only 1. Just checking to understand your intent there.

Any thoughts on any of the other events for the day? Medi and Werekill being the biggest, but there are still other things. Any general reads beyond ---?

Yeaaah I'm confused as **** what he meant there.

 

[Rockin]

Rockin In this setup there is 1 mafia PR, 1 goon, 2 town PR, and 5 vanilla town. So there are 5 vanilla townies total. When you say "I'm the Vanilla Townie" it makes it sound like you think there is only 1. Just checking to understand your intent there.

Any thoughts on any of the other events for the day? Medi and Werekill being the biggest, but there are still other things. Any general reads beyond ---?

Well yeah, mainly given the sample prs and just going on the assumption that those are the roles in this game. Thus far, in terms of flips, all's been accurate.

Just currently under the impression i'm the only vanilla townie.

anyway, i'll go reread what's been said of medi and werekill.

 

[Matunas]

Hello beautiful reader and welcome to Tomafia 4.

Please familiarize yourself with the setup we will be playing: the Mafiascum 2d3.

Rockin I think you need to reread the opening post a little closer. We are part of the 2d3 setup. It is linked there. We know the roles fall into 1 of those 9 possibilities. Based on what has flipped so far we are confirmed to have one of these two:

 

[Matunas]

(Accidentally submitted my post mid typing)

• B1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Cop, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
• B2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla

This is why I thought it was important to talk about yesterday, so these things would be known and could be talked about today.

 

[Rockin]

Rockin I think you need to reread the opening post a little closer. We are part of the 2d3 setup. It is linked there. We know the roles fall into 1 of those 9 possibilities. Based on what has flipped so far we are confirmed to have one of these two:

ahh I see. I guess that was my mistake. I read it wrong entirely. I still find ---'s breadcrumbing/claim to be bs, mainly because of how it was done.

and reading the exchange between medi and werekill, I have mixed opinions. I'm not liking how werekill responded to medi's posts, but I'm also not seeing any particular scumness from medi either. Atm, I still would like a lynch on --- and werekill in that order. I'm not interested in lynching medi, mainly because I don't see anything particulary scummy.

 

[Lore]

Do you have any additional reads or insights? Or is that it?

 

[Strong Badam]

Ok what in the **** did Rockin just do? He's categorized Mediocre as not scummy without responding to any of the plentiful reasoning for why he is from folks like Matunas or Werekill.

Trihy also showed up to contribute nothing. I get real life obligations but cmon. Don't just vote tomorrow, reply to the conversation.

 

[Lore]

Ok what in the **** did Rockin just do? He's categorized Mediocre as not scummy without responding to any of the plentiful reasoning for why he is from folks like Matunas or Werekill.

Trihy also showed up to contribute nothing. I get real life obligations but cmon. Don't just vote tomorrow, reply to the conversation.

I'll be real here and say that you said exactly what I was thinking, but I wanted to give him a chance to expand.

Maybe the post was rushed? The random Vanilla Town claim was weird too, like he completely missed any and all setup discussion.

 

[Strong Badam]

the Vanilla townie???

 

[Lore]

Yeah scroll up a bit and see, he apparently thought he was the only Vanilla Town?

To say it's weird is an understatement. I'm about to head to bed though.

 

[Lore]

Side note before bed, I also want to try to account for bias from me, to prevent OMGUS towards Rockin.

He has consistently had me as scum for some reason, and I don't really recall him expanding it much? So I'm trying to prevent OMGUS on my end and approach his weird **** tonight cautiously.

I also still feel like the game theory logic of him VS Pi still might hold, but he needs to stop posting weird stuff like earlier for me to keep thinking that. I've gone more or less from null soft-leaning town on him back to null.

If any of that doesn't make sense, I need to sleep. I just really want to prevent being a ******** this game, and I used to get super emotional in games at the drop of a hat. It was miserable for everyone, and I don't want to be that towards Rockin.

 

[Lore]

^censored word is **** head, the censor made it one long mash of asterisks.

 

[Strong Badam]

I think that Town's 6v1 advantage has made it a bit tough to scumhunt on day 2, leading to misplays from many players including myself. I'll do my best to get us back on track. Consider this my "Day 2 day 2" recap post. Please feel free to click into any posts to read the full context and come to your own conclusions. If you feel I am wrong or making a misstep, I wish to hear it from you.

Let's review
Lean lists
The following people have generated scumlean lists. The people after these quotes are encouraged to generate and post their scumread lists.

SB/WK are much greater town-leans for me.
Mediocre is by and large the biggest null and given they didn't vote yesterday.
TewnLeenk I'm still skeptical due to their brief posts, but are a slight town-lean.
Rockin I still think their behavior is off, but I can't deny their vote yesterday. Null-lean.
Matunas I'll need to re-read. They voted for <Pi, but as they were the deciding vote I don't want to lean on that too much. Null-ish.

Scumlean: Mediocre, Rockin, ---
Null: TewnLeenk, Matunas
Townlean: Werekill Strong Bad

--- : I'm really not getting the game plan here. Giving away your role early on and just the way your posts are worded seem weird to me. I dun get it. Probably leaning towards scum.

Mediocre: Now that we know who <pi is, you being uncomfortable with a lynch sticks out. Also I reread your exchange with Strong Bad that he mentioned in the post above and I full agree with him that the ending statement wasn't very conclusive.

Rockin and Matunas: Null. Not really seeing anything too crazy here, outside of a couple exchanges with other users.

Werekill and Strong Bad are giving off some mega Town vibes to me. They're the most active ones and are really pushing for the hard hitting information here.

Werekill's reads:

Scum leans:

Mediocre Strange behavior from this player, as stated in my earlier post. I feel very comfortable parking my vote on this slot.

Null but noteworthy:

Rockin I read <pi + Rockin as the usual D1 read, with both as scum leans. <pi's behavior grew worse as the day went on, while Rockin's didn't get much worse iirc. Given this, Rockin's D2 behavior so far, and my earlier post about odds, I'm more comfortable seeing this slot less as Scum. Not even close to a Town lean, but certainly much better than my D1 read. I disagree with the --- vote, as previously stated.

^Question for Strong Badam on Rockin : You noted that <pi frequently mentioned Rockin as a scum read; do you think that this was a Bus attempt, or an attempt to just deflect off themselves to the next lynch candidate? I got the vibe that they were trying to do that with other things near the end of D1, not to mention the Cop claim attempt. I'm leaning towards it being deflection, but I want to hear your thoughts.

TewnLeenk Their behavior has improved from D1, with much more clear reads and questions. I don't get a firm town vibe from this slot though, and I'm trying to decide if my gut is just reading Newbie behavior as fishy behavior.

Strong Badam This player is working hard on reading the <pi interactions and generally seems ok, but I still want to account for bias towards an active/similar-thinking player. I'd lean Town hard otherwise, and I plan to do a deep dive into their posts D3 to settle my read. Given current behavior, I suspect it'll come up as a Town read towards them. Same issue with the --- vote.

Matunas The hammer D1 was either Town seeing through bull**** or Scum earning easy points. I strongly lean towards the former, given this player's past behavior in game. I get a general Town vibe from the content I have seen, but I don't like the --- vote so this player is Null.

Town leans:

--- I still read this slot as Vanilla Town with a poor gambit, and I don't understand what other people are seeing here. If --- became the lynch instead of a much worse player like Medi, I'd have to do some serious read re-evaluating depending on the flip. I firmly believe that it will be a town flip, though.

Matunas has not made a full lean list, but multiple posts strung together (#334 and #339) indicate his reads are generally in line with the rest of the field (Scum leans on --- and Mediocre, Town lean on me, Null on Tewn, I would say more but I wish not to misrepresent his leans).

Mediocre has not generated a lean list, but has notably classified both myself and Werekill as town (#301)

Rockin has not seemed to have generated a lean list. He has stated his lynch list to be (in order) --- then Werekill as of #348.

________________________________
[COMMENCE STRONG BAD OPINION]

When the day began I had ---, Mediocre, and Rockin in the same category. As the day moved on, I had put --- and Mediocre into a category of their own separate from Rockin. Following the second half of April 1st, I now generally put all 3 in the same category once again due to some extremely questionable play from Rockin.

The differentiations are thus: My suspicions of --- began on day 1 and have not waned since. You can see my reasoning in post #323. My suspicion of Mediocre began D2 after reviewing day 1, and were reinforced following the Werekill v Mediocre 1v1.
Rockin just like.... has consistently been saying he'd rather lynch X over Y in contrast to the rest of the players in the game. It is almost always without satisfactory reasoning.

So, I have some ****ing questions.

--- Why did you breadcrumb a non-power role on day one?? What did you hope to accomplish? Can you please respond to #290 and #316? If it's at all possible please reply to these queries and additionally contribute to the greater conversation occurring instead of showing up exclusively to vote.

Rockin There was so much discussion of the setup throughout the game. Even the opening posts were talking about 3v6 (<Pi bull****ting while knowing his scumbuddy) and 2v7 format as well as the 2d3 link in the OP. Following that, <Pi's flailing in #258 referred to it.
My own post extremely early into Day 2 (#264) directly posts the two possible setups that this game has based on the two role flips.
---'s behavior D1 (who you indicate as scummy specifically for his role breadcrumbing stuff) also brought upon a lot of discussion on the possible setup.
I'm just so confused how you came to the conclusion that you were the only Vanilla Townie?
Following that, how have you concluded that Mediocre 's behavior is not scummy (per your #348)? Have you thoroughly read through his posts? Or the posts of myself, Werekill, Matunas, and TewnLeenk who have all concluded that he is scummy? If you do still do not feel Mediocre is scummy, do you have counterpoints to bring to the table to these 4 players who believe he is?

Regarding Mediocre, I think the field of players has grilled him enough on his scummy behavior and tagging him yet again here with queries isn't going to get us much.


Lastly, I would like to repeat that Town's lynches should remain focused upon hitting scum, rather than punishing bad Town players. I am reminding even myself of this. Let's work together, re-read what went on, and try to see if any of these players stand out to us as particularly more scummy than the others.

That's all I got for now. I have to head to bed, I hope this message finds you all in the morning.
Let's head into the final vote with our wits about us.

 

[TewnLeenk]

That random vanilla townie claim was weird, but I agree with Strong Bad that we should be focused on what we think is scummy overall.

I still have --- and Mediocre in my sights. I'd like to hear more from Rockin too, especially his response to Strong Bad's post above.

 

[---]

Rockin making a role claim, combined with their <Pi vote, pushes them more towards town IMO. Though I'm not entirely sure about their interest in a WK lynch.

Am currently re-reading Mediocre's statements.

My guess his originally he wanted to breadcrumb Napolitan, and possibly try to throw the claim on someone he 'trusts' with the night PMs

Am not sure about the logic given here. When I mistook Night PMs being a thing I said I would claim for any interested party. Claiming Vanilla to some and Neapolitan to others, even those I trust, is not very smart. Additionally claiming Neapolitan Night 1 is reckless in and of itself as it puts oneself at risk of being axed off by scum before the power can be used at least once.

Once he realized the rules didn't actually allow night PMs (as well as possibly other things), he had to change the stratedgy and go with Vanilla townie claim, as it's a bit safe. I know we can also go with the possibly that he anticipated this and used the breadcrumb to put wifom on the townies of what his role could actually be, but i'm just going to use the razor and say that I just don't believe him.

I am still under the guise that the game's layout is presented to us, and thus wouldn't lie. The flips thus far have been accurate

Both roles are not easily proven even if Night PMs were a thing. Why would I be changing my strategy in that regard? No Night PMs only means you can't barter for info and bread-crumbing, whether or not you guess incorrectly, is still important for town activity.

How are these negative?

even "I like chocolate better" -> "I like Vanilla" is very similar phrasing.

I think you were word-smithing a bit too hard. Primarily in regards to the context. two are them are in response to negative pressure while the other states something affirmative in regards to positive pressure. Of the three, only one of the statements is in regards to the perception of myself.

 

[Tom]

Vote Count:
--- (2): Matunas, Rockin
Mediocre (1): Werekill
Not voting (4): TewnLeenk, ---, Mediocre, Strong Bad

Day 2 will end Tuesday, April 2 at 5:30 pm CST or when a player reaches 4/7 votes.

 

[---]

Mediocre has not given a hard statement throughout the entire game even in response to Werekill's 1v1 interrogation or everyone's questioning of myself. Do you have any new thoughts in regards to events besides Werekill? I need to see at least some intent behind your statements. Use some of the emotion you had from Werekill's 1v1.

Matunas is my other scum lean. They've been fairly opportunistic throughout the entire game thus far such as changing their votes back and forth between TewnLeenk & Rockin Day 1. They were the last one to vote for <Pi and the first to jump onto voting for me. Their post #206 also strikes me as leaving a door open for <Pi to try and defend himself and downplaying potentially being the hammer vote. They were also apart of both <Pi's town leanings along with Pythag & myself on #153 & #190. Their recent statement regarding Pythag's death as random but also that Mediocre might have planned to associate themselves with their NK strikes me as weird.

#254 What does A1 mean? If I was allied with <Pi why would they insist on these claims if they theoretically knew in advance I was changing my breadcrumb role claim on the fly due to Night PMs? I had already pushed for SB to re-read my breadcrumbs on #217. Though in general, the last few posts on Day 1 are somewhat non sequiturs I'm not sure I'm correctly picking up on at my current experience level.

TewnLeenk I feel has been the most quiet. Their posts feel more or less repeats of a lot of WK/SB's talking points. That said, their vote for <Pi keeps me leaning town.