So...interesting day, huh?
After today's crazy happenings and Sakurai Chrom trolling, I gotta say my chances for Ridley have gone from 40% to 75%.
First, the disconfirmation of Gematsu means the sky's the limit for characters now! And the addition of Lucina, a clone / semi-clone, shows that Sakurai won't shy away from adding characters that don't have entirely unique move sets. So I now thoroughly expect Dixie Kong since she'd be an almost-clone of Diddy. So if by any chance Ridley was a last-minute addition due to fan demand and needed to be developed fast, the possibility that he'd borrow some moves or animations from other characters isn't out of the question.
Second, the Trophy Quiz Theory – which had been dismissed because Gematsu didn't predict a Zelda or Metroid character – is now back in play! And without Sal Romano holding it back, it makes sense on sooooo many levels. Robin and Lucina's reveals give this theory another point in its favor, of course.
More important, though, is the simple "duh" aspect regarding the question of whether Sakurai would want to add a Zelda Newcomer (Ghirahim, Impa, and / or classic Gannon) to Smash 4. Zelda is a huge-selling franchise for Nintendo, and it would be a huge missed opportunity for them not to include a Zelda Newcomer to promote the series in general and Hyrule Warriors in particular. The timing for a Zelda Newcomer reveal around the time of Hyrule Warriors Japan release is too perfect to pass up. Moreover, I'd bet money that Zelda will become like Fire Emblem in that Smash games will now include characters from the most recent game, even if they are one-off villains or sidekicks.
So after today I'd put the odds of a Zelda Newcomer at 80%.
This would leave Metroid as the only series with a trophy featured in the Smash Direct. With 3 out of 4 of the trophies confirmed as Newcomers, it would be too much of a coincidence for the Trophy Quiz to NOT be a deliberate hint from Sakurai. Hence, there is a Metroid Newcomer.
Third, at this point there is no remaining plausible Newcomer that could bring close to the hype that Ridley would bring. Ridley is PERFECT as the final Newcomer to be revealed pre-3DS-release as last-minute hype-booster in late August or early September. Shulk would be a good reveal for August, or maybe in Ridley's intro video battling against him. Chorus Kids, Dixie, and others would be revealed post-release, and likely wouldn't get videos due to Sakurai's comment of nearing the end of the stash of prepared Newcomer vids.
All of this really raises Ridley's chances a huge amount, doesn't it?
I have to admit that I was depressingly resigned to the near certainty that the Gematsu 3 were the final 3 Newcomers. Today was a good day.