To me, it seems like you're holding your materialism as a premise before the conclusion, and using that premise to reject a lot of my arguments.
Bayes Law is a way of systematically updating your beliefs based on evidence and what are called "priors", which are models of the universe and its various laws which an optimization algorithm (like the human mind) can use to make testable predictions. Bayes Law is undoubtedly the mathematical representation of the concept of "evidence", and so people who want to be able to make accurate predictions, who care about using new evidence properly when updating their models of reality, use Bayes Law to do it.
I am not going to suggest that, were you to use Bayes Law, and assign subjective probability mass to the variables in the equation, you would realize that you are wrong. No, you would find that the answer is that dualism is undoubtedly correct. That is because you have different so-called
priors, mental models of how the universe works, and those priors lead to different assessments than the priors of AltF4 or I do.
I hope you can rest assured that the error which people like AltF4 or I are making is not one of self-contradiction. The actual argument of materialism is internally self-consistent. You are throwing around accusations of logic errors, of fallacious thinking, and things like that. Well, I don't know about AltF4's particular arguments, but I know the actual Bayesian arguments for why materialism is more likely than dualism are internally consistent.
And I hope we don't think the best possible argument for dualism would contain any logical inconsistencies. The best possible argument for dualism? No way. And that is the final enemy for materialism, the one we must eventually defeat one day. Since we want to believe true things, not materialism in particular, it seems as though we aught to face that final enemy as soon as possible. It seems like you should do the same, Dre, though for you there is so much more to lose should the evidence become surmounting, and so much more to gain by finding one of the easy pieces of circuitry evolution gave us for reaffirming why we are correct in the first place...
No, to go down that road is to presuppose materialism, is it not? I am getting ahead of myself.
A lot of people like to bring out a thing called "Occam's Razor", when up against the argument of dualism. I say "Occam's Razor" instead of Occam's Razor, because they may say "the simplest explanation is the best explanation", but they do not actually know what that means. The first to know what that actually meant was a man named Kolmogorov, who discovered the concept of Kolmogorov complexity (K complexity). This complicated bit of mathematics was basically a way to measure a theory's simplicity, in an objective way, such that the value was useful for doing Bayes Law calculations and deciding how to update your beliefs. Finally, we had a full chain, from seeing evidence to updating our beliefs, which was entirely based on objectivity and things we knew were
real instead of possibly influenced by humanity's flawed perception of reality.
What is the problem with "Occam's Razor"? The "simplest" explanation for any strange thing is that the lady down the street is a witch: she did it.
One might wonder about the nature of lightning bolts. Someone comes up to you, and shows you what he says are Maxwell's Equations of Electromagnetism. You look at the ink on the paper and don't understand: you think it is very complicated. Another man comes up to you and says, "It is Zeus, the Sky God. He throws them when he is angry." You can understand this, it's very simple.
So does Occam's Razor support it over Maxwell's Equations? One might argue that a description of Maxwell's Equations in English, which wouldbe longer and more complicated, would be much longer than the above similar description. It seems like there should be
some language in which it is easier to describe Maxwell, and that such a language might have some particular reason why we might think it a better language to use anyway...
The language of mathematics and physics! How much mathematics and physics would you have to do in order to have a
complete understanding of
how the theory could have predicted the phenomena you observed in the first place. This is what K Complexity is. If you wanted to completely understand consciousness, understand it well enough that you could
remake it yourself if given the proper material, and you wanted to write a program which would then simulate
that system so that you could make a computer conscious,
how long would the computer program have to be (assuming an ideal assembly language on an ideal turing machine), and
how much memory would it take up (assuming perfect compression).
This value is K Complexity, and it is a direct measurement of how complex a theory.
Now, let's apply this to dualism vs materialism. How complicated is dualism, REALLY? If you wanted to write a program which modeled the universe, and you wanted to add in a soul to this program, how much code and how much ram would it take to implement it such that you had actually modeled correctly how a soul actually works? How it actually interacts with the universe to produce speech patterns, not just
knowing that it does, but
explaining how it works?
I think it would take a lot of code. A ****ton of code.
Because there is so much to explain. If an extra-universal force is what interprets language, then how
exactly does damaging the area 3 inches behind the left side of the brain result in a human who can no longer write, even if they can speak and hear correctly? Did it damage the soul to the point where it could no longer properly control the hand well enough? Because it sure ain't a hand problem. And if your theory couldn't have
predicted in advance that damage to the brain 3 inches behind the left idea took away the ability to write, predicted it with a
higher probability than neuroscience
possibly could have, then discovering this new fact, this new evidence, can be defined by Bayes Law as being
evidence against the theory of dualism. And since math and science can only correctly be used to decide which theory to support, not to be used as evidence for any particular theory after-the-fact (for to do so would be rationalization), it's not like I'm trying to use science to prove dualism wrong. I just happened to have done the math and shown that, starting with my priors, I used Bayes Law and examined new evidence, and as the new evidence came along and Dualism necessarily became more complicated to explain it, it eventually got discarded. For me.
With your priors, though, you might correctly end up at a different answer; that is the flaw of cognition, whether human or that of a perfect bayes law implementer, is that you basically have to start with some axioms, like induction. If those axioms are different, you end at different things.
But I'd like to remind you that the bar you should set for your beliefs, if you want to actually believe true things about the universe, should be
very high. Beliefs must continuously pay rent when new evidence comes in; they must be able to say, "Yes, I predicted that", or quickly get supplanted by
any idea which put a higher probability on the actual outcome of your experiment, any theory which might have even
slightly better predicted the new evidence you are considering.
Do you really think that in the end, you could defeat even the
perfect argument for materialism? You have enough evidence of Dualism that if God (or some other omnipotent creature) went and gathered all of the evidence for materialism he could possibly conceive of and presented it to you in the most persuasive way possible (without appealing to specific biases in human cognition) that you would be able to win that argument to your own satisfaction? For that is the bar you should set for your beliefs!
If you do not do this, then how can you know what you believe is actually true?
Edit: People are throwing the word "proof" out an awful lot. If you have proved something, you have a 100% subjective probability of it happening, that is, you 100% anticipate it happening.
That is why using percents is very very bad for laymen probability theorists. Sure, 100% looks alright enough, but if you try to express 100% with an odds ratio, one of the numbers goes to 0 and the other goes to positive infinity, and that's not good.
If you look at evidence from the mathematical perspective, you express evidence in terms of bits of entropy. The amount of entropy a particular theory has expresses the amount it has its predictions *focused* onto a few distinct possibilities. Good theories with low entropy focus their predictions very narrowly, giving odds of maybe 100,000:1 of one particular outcome, with the vast majority of possible outcomes receiving negligible anticipation.
But if you were to prove something, that would be 0 entropy, and the analogy to physics' notion of entropy is complete: you are only allowed to give 0 entropy to your axioms. The amount of evidence required to "prove" a theory is infinity.
Edit2: Oh, and just in case it wasn't clear: the K Complexity of a theory is directly proportional to how much evidence you would need to select that theory out of all possible theories. The entropy of a theory is its K Complexity relative to all other possible theories which currently explain all evidence.