You know, with the disconnect there is between the hardcore and casual fanbases of Smash, and the idea of both simultaneously being catered to apparently being such a foreign concept to many of us, I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Layton's been treated as a character from the "casual era" for a while, since focus towards non-gamers was Nintendo's aim back in the DS days.
I think you're more or less right on the money there. There does seem to be quite a disconnect between the casual and hardcore fans, and the characters that appeal to those two markets. Layton would probably appeal more to a casual audience, especially since his series was designed to expand upon the concept started by the Brain age series that Nintendo created but with a bit more depth given to it with a colourful cast of characters and captivating stories to tell. So it can be enjoyed by a wider audience. Which is probably why his support base is a lot more vocal on social media sites like Twitter and Tumblr over places like Smashboards and Gamefaqs etc
If Nintendo really is looking to expand onto wider audiences with this fighters pass as they claim. Then we probably will be getting a character that caters more to the casual or female type audience that series like Layton are famous with. But that remains to be seen I suppose.
Though considering how the DS was one of Nintendo's most successful consoles of all time. It is kind of sad to see it faring by with only Lucario as a playable character for the longest time now. So seeing another character from that era make it into Smash would be quite wonderful to see.
Besides, when you think about it, Pauline had it worse than Toad for the longest time. At least Toad gets regular appearances (even without a properly defined identity before Galaxy and Treasure Tracker happened), while nobody seemed to know what to do for Pauline without Miyamoto's guidance, after Peach became Mario's go-to damsel, so she only did very sporadic appearances for decades before Nintendo Software Technology brought her back and relegated her to the Mario Vs. DK series.
Also, it helps that Treasure Tracker survived the Great Wii U purge, so that more people get exposed to that game.
Yup. At least one new Mario-related character is generally a guarantee for the latest Smash, and we haven't run out of important ones yet (especially with Poochy and King Boo getting more prominence by the day).
Yeah Toad has quite a lot backing him, at least more so now with Captain Toad, especially if Nintendo is planning to continue to support him. Or at least keeping on giving him appearances in the mainline Mario games. I kinda like how they gave the little guy development ever since the first Mario Galaxy. The Mario series tend to be quite disconnected from each other as far as story goes (What little it has) so its nice to see how they gave Captain Toad a sort of ongoing arc of some sort going with him between Galaxy, 3D World and Odyssey. Hopefully they will continue that with future 3D Mario games.
But yeah Pauline did have the shorter end of the stick for a much longer time, so it was nice to see her making such a grand return in Odyssey, so hopefully they will expand more onto her character as well. Or at least make her a regular in the spin off's now, she was long overdue for that anyway.
Yeah I think Mario and Pokemon are more or less always a safe bet as far as new characters go. Besides Brawl, they always tend to get at least one or two new characters.
Edit: Oh this is apparently my 10,00th post, Thanks for notifying me smashboards...