All of this crazy hype and speculation regarding Shovel Knight has a downside and an upside for us as Shantae fans. It also calls for a slight strategic shift in how we advocate for her. TL;DR at the bottom.
THE DOWNSIDE
The downside is that Shovel Knight is enjoying a revival in ballot popularity as a consequence of all of this. This is bad news because Shovel Knight is Shantae's most direct rival in the ballot. Most people think that one indie character in Smash is plenty, so it's going to be either/or for most voters. If any character's popularity could detract from Shantae's, it's Shovel Knight's.
THE UPSIDE
The upside is that all of this speculation about Shovel Knight joining Smash has shattered all of the serious arguments against Shantae. Prior to the Shovel Knight rumors, we were battling against an increasingly loud chorus of voices stating with smug confidence that Shantae has NO chance, thanks to all of the familiar reasons - indie, not iconic, not known in Japan. Then all of a sudden we get all these seemingly credible rumors about Shovel Knight having already made it, despite him also being indie, not iconic, and not known in Japan. Just the real hint of that possibility has shown everyone that all that smug confidence was completely baseless. This Shovel Knight speculation has had the glorious consequence that nobody can get away with saying those things and having them taken at face value anymore.
THE BOTTOM LINE
What this boils down to is that we face possibly the biggest threat but definitely the biggest opportunity we've had the entire ballot. Shovel Knight is on the rise again but the rumors about him have swept away all serious opposition to Shantae.
As Shantae supporters now we have two big, important goals. The first is to spread the Shantae fever as far and wide as possible. The negative voices trying to drag her down have basically been silenced, so if we are prepared to go all out now we can run away with this opportunity. If we don't, then you can bet that Shovel Knight supporters will.
The second relates to how we adapt our rhetoric to the new circumstances. Everyone is talking about Shovel Knight, and Shantae is in basically exactly the same position, but with better arguments for being in Smash. What we want to do is argue that Shantae would be an equally relevant and much more deserving indie rep. However it is absolutely critical that we do so RESPECTFULLY. I can understand people's frustration, but hating on Shovel Knight is the absolute last thing we want to be seen doing (looking at you @
TheRickyWill
:-P ). We want to say instead is that Shovel Knight is really cool and would be really exciting, but Shantae just feels like the more deserving indie rep. After all she has a 14 year history with Nintendo and multiple games. We'll be happy for Shovel Knight fans if Shovel Knight gets in, but if there's going to be an indie rep, then Shantae really deserves that spot. That comes off as a lot more positive and respectful, and is a lot more likely to attract people into considering our point of view.
There are also two new arguments against Shantae that we need to be ready for:
1) Shovel Knight is more relevant indie character right now.
I think this one is pretty easy to shut down. If you keep a positive tone, people who make this claim will be pretty open-minded to your arguments on this one.
If this were still April, then maybe it would be true that Shovel Knight was more relevant, since at the beginning of the ballot he was a top 3 most popular candidate while Shantae was only moderately popular. If you look at the online polls though, which are basically the only measure we have, Shantae and Shovel Knight have more or less swapped places since then. Shantae has consistently ranked top 3 in those polls for a couple months now. Shantae is also currently one of the best sellers on eshop, and has been on and off for over a year. Finally, Shovel Knight has some cool new DLC on the way, but Shantae has an entire new game coming out soon. Shovel Knight's one advantage over Shantae is that his surge of popularity came super early in the ballot, so if Nintendo picked some winners from initial results, he would have a good chance of being one of them. Other than that though Shantae definitely has more going from her currently.
2) There shouldn't be and/or won't be more than one indie rep, and Shovel Knight will probably be that indie rep.
This one is trickier.
First off we can point out that the Shovel Knight coming to Smash Bros rumor is far from confirmed. Even Tamaki, the source for this rumor, has been at pains to stress that this is just a RUMOR, not a confirmed fact. So Shovel Knight could be coming to Smash but it's getting way too hasty to say that is more likely than not at this point.
The second thing is we could argue that there's no reason to think that the number of DLC characters will be as stingy as everyone is assuming. So far Sakurai has surprised us with more characters than we expected every time. He could easily drop another 3 or 4 on us out of the blue again, followed by another 3 or so trickled out after that. In that case a second big indie character wouldn't be such a big deal. Maybe the two of them plus a couple costumes could comprise an indie Smash pack. That would be pretty awesome.
Finally, if Shantae really deserves a spot on the roster, then she shouldn't be denied one just because another character beat her there. And with her being a pioneer and a star of the indie scene and having such a long and faithful history with Nintendo, she definitely deserves it. She is the original Nindie after all. Whoever else gets in, Shantae definitely deserves this.
TL;DR
We are in a much different position as a result of this Shovel Knight speculation. We have to contend with the return of Shovel Knight as a serious rival to Shantae, but at the same time, Shovel Knight speculation has also defeated all of the big anti-Shantae arguments for us in one fell swoop. This means that now is the time to spread the word far and wide, via messages of support, (tasteful) fan art, etc, since we won't face so much resistance and we have a rival chasing at our heels. The way we argue for her has to change: we don't have to deal with the same amount of bull**** as before, but we do have to make the case everywhere that Shantae deserves this more than Shovel Knight, while still being totally respectful and even complimentary towards Shovel Knight.