When I witnessed the de-confirmation of Takamaru as an Assist Trophy and Balloon Fighter being a part of Villager’s recovery special again through E3 footage of Smash Ultimate, I was utterly astonished. I thought those two had the best chance to get in as the retro newcomer pick. It took me awhile to process the news, and I had wondered about which retro newcomer Sakurai had picked if Takamaru was not the one planned for the 2016 project plan. I looked into the remaining retro choices like Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable, quickly dismissing the latter two, only seeing the first choice as the only plausible character. But then, I witnessed a new, but obviously fake Smash leak featuring Lip that happened in the
Smash Ultimate Discussion thread. I suddenly started to create connections to Lip and other factors Sakurai stated to be important when he included retros like Pit/Little Mac. I have an unusual amount of confidence for Lip and I want to explain why I have a moderate degree of faith that she will be in Smash Ultimate.
Since Super Smash Bros. Brawl, popularity has been a big factor towards the inclusion of retro newcomers. Pit being in Brawl was the result of being the
most requested retro newcomer in America and Japan, noting the foreshadowing in Pit’s trophy description in Melee. This hint led to many fan theories, which caused the support for Pit erupt in a huge scale. Little Mac’s addition in Smash 4 was the result of him being the most popular retro in the West, with Punch Out Wii’s release and the
VGTribune poll that was sent to Sakurai at the time of project proposal helping Mac’s inclusion. I think it is safe to say that popularity in the West and Japan will contribute to a retro newcomer’s addition for this Smash. With the Smash Ballot allowing a large number of fans to vote, who could have been the most popular retro request? With the more casual Smash fans likely campaigning for third-parties/Nintendo newcomers like Bayonetta, Geno, Ridley, Waluigi, and K. Rool, it is hard to find anything concrete that would suggest a specific retro being very popular in the West and Japan. Fortunately, I can find out which retro newcomer was extremely popular during the ballot voting period through a process of elimination.
Researching a number of websites like Smashboards, Gamefaqs, and Twitter, I did not find much notable campaigning for Excitebiker, Mach Rider, Prince of Sable, and Takamaru. However, there was one single retro who I have seen consistently campaigned in both the West and Japan. That being Lip. Upon looking into Lip's support during the Smash ballot period, Lip was the only retro I have seen with a truly dedicated following that parallels the likes of the dedicated Daisy fan-base in many ways. As someone who pays attention to retro newcomer support fanbases closely, I know for sure that not even Takamaru and Prince Sable had much
discussion and fan-dedication as Lip. I have seen supporters of Lip from the West/East that have passionately made
fan art,
several videos, and MANY
moveset ideas for the flower fairy, with a numerous amount of hardcore PDP fans campaigning
a revival of Panel de Pon and
Lip being playable in Smash Bros. This following might have been big enough to vote in a grander scale than Takamaru, possibly making Lip the most voted retro in the West and Japan. Lip is the only fanbase I know that would be capable of accomplishing a notable feat in votes.
Now assuming that Lip was the most popular retro, would her being from a Japan-only game stop Sakurai from including the character? Personally, I do not think Panel de Pon’s obscurity would be a huge problem. Sakurai loves his retro characters, especially with Japan-only games. He has shown his love of these titles with Assist Trophies like Takamaru and Sable, trophies like Ayumi Tachibana and Diskun, remixes of Lip’s theme and Mysterious Murasame Castle, and, at one point, was willing enough to make characters from a Japan only franchise playable in the form of Marth and Roy. Hypothetically, If Sakurai saw the huge ballot popularity for Lip, I believe he would immediately jump at the chance. Even if her game was Japan-only, I feel that worldwide demand would be able to make up for her obscurity.
Sakurai personally considered Panel de Pon to be a masterpiece, and this alone makes me certain that he loves the the franchise. I would not be very surprised if this quickly enticed him to make Lip a playable character. Lip’s gameplay potential and character individuality would also be a factor Sakurai would be attracted by, with her being a magical flower fairy who would be able to utilize Panel de Pon puzzle gameplay mechanics and the flower effects of Lip’s Stick for a very unique moveset. With these positives going for Lip, I feel that she will be the next retro choice chosen by Sakurai.
Of course, there is the real possibility that Lip’s ballot popularity could have been less than Prince of Sable or Excitebiker. But, I personally doubt it at this point. With two of the biggest retro choices out of the running (Takamaru and Balloon Fighter), the only retro newcomer I feel pretty confident of being the most popular is Lip. Here is hoping my assessment is correct. Lip’s inclusion would do wonders and would help Intelligent Systems finally make a new Panel de Pon game, which would be a blessing for me.