Although I'm not as confident as a lot of you, I agree with the sentiment going around the thread Lloyd is in a great place. Assuming he isn't DLC #5 and no mii costumes come forward deconfirming him, Lloyd benefits a lot being part of a second challenge pack.
a. He no longer would be the third JRPG character in a 5 character challenging pack. Even though that may not have affected his chance for this challenger pack, it also may have. And to add to that, the only, and I use this ironically, "anime swordmen" left is probably Chrono (who Square probably wouldn't use over their more marketable characters) and Sora.
b. If the voice actor quote from earlier is not him lying, it would make sense he wouldn't know about Lloyd being in the game if Sakurai picked Lloyd for the second pass. Some one pointed this out, but voice actors are usually the last people to be informed and he definitely wouldn't be under NDA yet if Lloyd was part of challenger pack 2 and wasn't even being developed yet.
c. Even if we ignore Bandai Namco making the game, Bandai is the biggest company other than Capcom to not get a new character (not counting echoes). With franchises like Tales, Tekken, Soul Caliber and Dark Souls, I find it hard to believe Sakurai wouldn't at least pick one to pay back all the hard work they have done thus far.
d. With Yuri seemingly ignored this fighter pass, if Sakurai still views Lloyd as the definitive Tales rep, he would probably chose Lloyd if no new Tales ports happen. The fact he picked Terry and Banjo over characters that have been in more recent games shows he doesn't care about how old a character is, only their iconicness in their series.
All in all, I'm feeling pretty good after today. My only question, which will be answered in a few months probably, is will the DLC be a season 2 fighter pass, or will it be packs sold seperatly, like in smash 4.