The oddsmakers (i.e. the people with a rather large incentive to figure out who's going to win, and the people I usually trust about these things) seem to be giving 1:2 on Obama and 6:4 on Romney, and while that might not seem like a huge difference, those are basically "in case Obama molests a page or the economy tanks in a major way" numbers. Mccain Obama wasn't particularly close, and those odds weren't as far out as these are. Then again, this far out, you never can tell--Obama might molest a page. Or the economy might tank.