Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Lifetime Sales Prediction Thread

[Perkilator]

I would be surprised if it sells that much seeing as the sales are likely flatting out

With characters like Steve and Sephiroth in the pass? Unlikely.

 

[Super Flygon]

I would be surprised if it sells that much seeing as the sales are likely flatting out

To be fair, a Switch successor is likely still more than a few years away (I'm hoping for it to be Holiday 2025) and the next Smash would probably be around 2 years after that. Even then, I'm sure Ultimate and other Switch evergreens will continue to sell even small amounts by then (especially if the successor is backwards compatible).

Even if it does about 4 million in 2021 and about 3 million for the next 3 years after that, that's 13 million right there, on top of what it has already sold + Holiday 2020 (and if the Switch successor doesn't release until 2025, this is all done before its release). That would be over 35 million. Probably would be a little lower than that in 5 years, but still close enough.

 

[Super Flygon]

Ultimate has now sold 22.85 million as of the end of Dec 2020! I was a little off in prediction (thought it would be 23 or even 24 million), but this is still very much impressive. I'd say the game is well on its way to 25 million by the end of the year! No updates for Smash 3DS/Wii U (actually no updates for any non Switch software).

 

[JOJONumber691]

Smash Ultimate will sell 30 Mil by January 2023, after it gets released in China. The Translation is already there, just needs Censored but it will happen Smash is too big not to get localized for China lol.

 

[Super Flygon]

Smash Ultimate will sell 30 Mil by January 2023, after it gets released in China. The Translation is already there, just needs Censored but it will happen Smash is too big not to get localized for China lol.

Isn't it already available in China?

 

[JOJONumber691]

Isn't it already available in China?

Nah. I don't think so anyways. It's available in Hong Kong though, and has two Chinese Translations. I think, since the Translations are both done, and Nintendo is selling the Switch in China, that I do think that it getting released in China is inevitable. We'll wait and see lol.

 

[Super Flygon]

Another update! This time through March 31, 2021.

Ultimate: 23.84 million

Smash 3DS: 9.62 million

No change for anything else. Ultimate sold just under 1 million copies last quarter!

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Another update! This time through March 31, 2021.

Ultimate: 23.84 million

Smash 3DS: 9.62 million

No change for anything else. Ultimate sold just under 1 million copies last quarter!

This close to crossing the 25 million threshold let’s goooooo

 

[Super Flygon]

This close to crossing the 25 million threshold let’s goooooo

Should be able to reach 25 million by the end of Q3, even before the holidays. 30 million is likely by the end of 2022!

 

[IzukuXYang4Life]

I'm surprised were even saying millions considering how lackluster and disappointing Ultimate is.

With Mediocre DLC that's not fun to use., is only here to cash in on whatever is currently popular (Leeching Off Current Day Japanese Culture) consisting of characters you'll probably forget about in a few (Who's Joker Or Hero and why are they even here if they aren't memorable or iconic).

A base game with little to no good single player content.

A story mode that's boring as Hades.

Nothing to unlock at all.

Horrible online.

Nintendo prioritizing this as a super hardcore Esport game for mature players as opposed to a fun party game anyone can enjoy.

And a fighting game with too many clones and characters nobody cares about about (Did Isabella And Incineroar really need to be in the game).


Sorry if I sound to harsh. And I'm forcing anyone to agree with me (If you like Ultimate, fine, whatever, I could care less).

But I just do not understand why this made so much money when it wasted a ton of money on stuff that did not need to be in the game at all.

 

[Super Flygon]

Time for another update! Ultimate's sales have now reached 24.77 million as of the end of June 2021! This means the game will easily surpass 25 million within the next quarter. Should end the year close to or over 27 million! 30 million seems incredibly likely for 2022.

 

[Super Flygon]

As of September 30, 2021, Ultimate has now sold over 25.71 million copies, increasing by almost one million in the last quarter! Expecting it to be around 27 million by the end of the year. Should definitely cross 30 million next year.

Smash 3DS notched up to 9.63 million and the others haven't budged.

 

[Super Flygon]

As of December 31, 2021, Ultimate has reached sales of 27.40 million! Definitely should cross 30m before the end of 2022. Thinking it will reach that number in Q3.

No updates for SSBB, Smash 3DS and Smash Wii U.

 

[Super Flygon]

March 31, 2022! SSBU is up to 28.17 million.

No updates for the other SSB games, and I suspect that we probably won't get updates for those games anymore.

 

[Super Flygon]

June 30, 2022: SSBU is now up to 28.82 million.

Should probably be around 29.40 million at the end of september and then over 30 million by the end of the year.

 

[Super Flygon]

September 30, 2022: Ultimate jumps up to 29.53 million with a note that the number was adjusted based on a prior revision.

Smash 3DS actually notched up to 9.64 million. No updates for Smash Wii U or Brawl.

 

[Super Flygon]

Big milestone! Smash Ultimate crossed 30 million this past holiday season, 4 years after launch!

It has now broken into the top 10 best selling Nintendo games of all time, landing a ninth place spot. Can't see it reaching 40 million its lifetime. Could see it crossing 35 million though. SSBU will almost certainly be at least the sixth best selling Nintendo game of all time.

No updates for any other Smash games.

 

[Perkilator]

Smash just passed 31.09 million copies

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Super Flygon]

Nice to see that I'm not the only one posting in this thread! SSBU has now outsold NSMB, the highest selling DS game. Could see it maybe surpass Wii Spoirts Resort at the end of the year.

 

[Oracle Link]

Im pretty sure the game might be rereleased at some point!
(I mean if we get a new smash and its a Spinoff)

 

[Super Flygon]

Im pretty sure the game might be rereleased at some point!
(I mean if we get a new smash and its a Spinoff)

I feel like they'll just do that for the next system (and hopefully include new characters, stages, music, items, etc.).

 

[silenthunder]

for reference thats the highest number of people online on steam https://gameworldobserver.com/2022/11/28/steam-peak-concurrent-players-record-almost-32-million

 

[Oracle Link]

I feel like they'll just do that for the next system (and hopefully include new characters, stages, music, items, etc.).

It would almost definitly include something new thats standart for nintendo ports!

 

[Super Flygon]

SSBU has sold 31.77 million as of June 30, 2023! No major milestones this time around, I think.

 

[Super Flygon]

SSBU has sold 32.44 million copies as of September 30, 2023! Less than a million away from surpassing Wii Sports Resort. With the holidays coming up, it will be easy to pass in the next update. It's made even easier by the recently announced OLED Smash bundle.

 

[Super Flygon]

SSBU has now sold 33.67 million as of December 31, 2023. Added over 1 million and easily surpasses Wii Sports Resort to land 6th place so far on the all time Nintendo list. I think it will eventually pass Mario Kart Wii, landing in the top 5. Will probably not pass Super Mario Bros. though.

 

[Super Flygon]

SSBU notched up to 34.22 million. Still doubt that it can reach 40m and surpass Super Mario Bros., but it is well on its way to passing MK Wii. Probably sometime in 2026.

Smash 3DS notched up ever so slightly in the last 6 months, going from 9.64 million to 9.65 million. Have to wonder who is still buying 3DS games, especially after the eShop's closure!

 

[Super Flygon]

SSBU has now sold 34.66 million copies! Should pass the 35 million mark in the next update!

 

[Super Flygon]

Total sales are 35.14 million as of September 30, 2024! Passed the 35m mark. Not sure if it can pass the 40m mark, but it should at least pass Mario Kart Wii in due time.