Yeah well after finally catching up my hopes are wavering right now. STEVE?! The only thing I can think of as to why is a business deal and hopefully that's the ONLY reason. I'm really starting waver on base now. If anyone could just give us something to not hit me into anxiety mode that'd be great.
I know a lot of you here remain hopeful but I don't know.. no real credible leakers are throwing us a bone now are they?
Ahmm....
https://twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1043125656542793728
This just was posted...
What do you think?
I'm really afraid of Vergeben being right, now with all the Steve stuff around....
There's a lot of red flags to be had from Vergeben. His 'sources' being a key one because apparently according to the man, himself, even random users on gamefaqs have been considered sources. Basically the one that told him no new DK reps that he admittedly doubted. But it opens a Pandora's box. Seriously? Random users can be considered your sources? If that's the case, what's the highest ranking source you could possibly have? If that's acceptable, that probably means you have absolutely nobody with any actual information about the game, just speculators.
He got stuff right of course... with a rundown Ridley, every fighter returning, Simon and Isabelle. That might sound impressive, but believe it or not there are people who have effectively done the same thing with just speculating. Mimique being a notable one, even getting ones like K. Rool and Chrom before their reveal trailers which not even Vergeben got with all his 'sources' and 'looking as hard as he could'. _Stealth is even noted for speculating Simon and a Castlevania collection when Vergeben piggybacked off of for his leaking purposes. From a bird's eye perspective it's not
that impressive to get those things correctly. Ridley would be a leap of faith, but we have the ballot to work from and people still guessed him besides Vergeben. Simon Belmont would be one of the very few NES/SNES characters that has a series that has remained active leading up to modern times, similar to Pac-man and Mega Man. Many people were fishing for Simon. Isabelle... well, are you kidding me? Everyone and their mother (literally because they probably play Animal Crossing) was guessing Isabelle and he even thought it was an echo.
Before we move on, there's a lot to digest here that A LOT of people miss and bugs the hell out of me. I really want to get it off my chest with this post. The fighters he didn't get at all; Daisy, Richter, Dark Samus, Chrom and K. Rool. You might give him a pass on some of these characters, but the biggest red flag to me is Richter. Richter is the achilles heel of every 'leak' I've seen in this smash cycle that ages back that far. It's the smoking gun. Nobody got Simon AND Richter. Nobody. That torpedoes all the leaks into the abyss for me. That proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that your sources are no one special because think about how true sources of information would find out about Simon. Maybe they worked on the direct? On the game specifically? On localization? On translation? In what one scenario can you name would you just see Simon and not Richter? But then you just tell Vergeben Simon? Occam's Razor, man. He only got Simon because he made an educated guess with his sources. This is doubled down with K. Rool. Clearly knew nothing about him because the speculators he listens to just didn't think it would happen.
There's a reason he always talks that way where 'this sources usually comes through with valid info' and 'multiple sources are pointing to this' because it's probably technically correct. Just not the way you and I would define a source.
Now, we are up to current Vergeben stuff, and honestly he's getting into some trouble not for the contents of his leaking but how many things he's trying to collaborate with. I really feel as we draw on further, he's going to become a victim of too much information. That box theory he was going along with as well as the Samurai Showdown user with Minecraft Steve now. Contradictions will run rampant if things were never true in the first place. My favorite quote from Judge Judy is you can't tell the truth about a story that never happened. It's easy to see why he's been bitten in the past and it's because he listens to too many sources of information trying to lead him to some conclusion. It's another reason not to even believe the Samurai Showdown poster because it's a tack-on leaker. This is actually the same thing with that Dante leaker a month ago where they piggyback actual information they have with their own smash speculation stuff. I digress here, but you can kind of see where I'm going with this. It just turns into one big muddy pool of nothing.
It just makes sense to me because this is down to how vague he talks as well. It's a good defense; be as vague as possible and leave a way to escape things. And compromise on people who become your naysayers. You can see it in the people that follow what he has to say. They're willing to forgive him for faulty or outright wrong information by how he handles it and outright saying 'I don't know', 'my source said' and some of his backpedaling comments that not many people are aware of - one talking about Richter and one talking about Isabelle as an echo. Now, could Pokemon from Gen 7 who is definitely Incineroar now, Ken, some Squenix rep and Minecraft Steve be playable? Yes, the possibility is for sure there. But, honestly having thought it all over, it just makes sense to me now.
Imagine that he's in a discord that has 10 of his close speculating sources and they all predict how this game will be handled. Using data from what we've been given, of course a Pokemon is going to be among them. So they agree on that, but not specifically on who until a later date which ends up being Incineroar. Of course Ken because he just makes to much sense to anybody after hearing about echoes being a thing. A Squenix rep in the same way to remain vague and decide on it in the future, if at all or if they ever agree on it. It's still a safe bet, all things considered. Many people expect Geno to occur. And then finally Minecraft with how popular it is and the crossplay. Again, something that a bunch of speculators making observation patterns and educated guesses would clue in on.
And honestly? They could very well be right if they've been observing things the way they think they have. But just as much as I can see it happening, I can see it not happening at all. I really wouldn't be surprised in the least if there's no Incineroar, Ken or Steve anywhere in sight. It just all depends on the tilt Sakurai has for the rest of these newcomers. If they're the same as we've gotten thus far, you can kiss Steve goodbye. If this were an even worse version of Smash 4: Sellout Edition: Electric Boogaloo, then yeah. Here's Minecraft Steve, make sure you buy his game for the Switch =D =D =D.
For my money, I still can't believe with all these educated speculators, none of them are keying in on the Rathalos tweet in the least. Something that doesn't come from a random gamefaqs user. But Sakurai and the smash team itself. That's basically the only source of information I'm looking at right now and what makes me so confident despite all the fanfare that's occurring. Sorry for the long post.