It's Minecraft. 'Nuff said.
Being serious, My reasoning as to why Steve is more likely than the other two prominent Microsoft characters is simple: Minecraft is overwhelmingly popular Minecraft is the
second best selling game of all time, selling 154 million copies and over the summer of 2018 had 91 million active players, which is more than what
Fortnite had in September of the same year. Minecraft is also
incredibly popular in Japan,
topping the charts multiple times and selling over a million copies on the Playstation Vita, a fact that should really speak for itself. For a game that has legitimately been around
for almost 10 years, Minecraft has withstood the test of time and proved itself to be a cornerstone of gaming culture as a whole (there's an entire section on
Minecraft's cultural impact on its Wikipedia page). For one, Minecraft is a prominent example of indie gaming, originally being developed by one person on his own and gradually becoming bigger as its popularity increased. I would even say that Minecraft could arguably be considered
the indie game, and at the very least shaped the basic structure of indie games releasing in beta versions and gradually becoming more complete since it was the first game to prominently do so.
The widespread appeal of Minecraft can't be understated. There's
endless Minecraft merchandise including that of
popular Minecraft Youtubers (imagine getting toys made after you for playing a video game).
Minecraft is even used for education for some reason and it works, which is hard for edutainment games. The game's also received two prominent spin-offs,
Minecraft Story Mode, made by TellTale Games at their peak, and
Minecraft Dungeons, which is indicative of the series' wider popularity. Minecraft is also one of many prominent series to have it's own fan convention,
MineCon, which regularly attracts thousands of fans and garners
hundreds of thousands of millions of views online. I also can't fail to mention the many clones of Minecraft or unofficial merchandise that attempt to cash in on the popularity of the original game. Some of these get modest success, such as
the Minecraft clones made for Wii U before the official release came out.
"But tehponycorn" you say "Steve isn't a popular character!"
One, refer to "What is the Smash Bubble?" as to why that argument isn't as valid as you think it is Two, you're wrong.
At a Q&A at MineCon 2018, someone asked Minecraft developers if they thought Steve would be in Smash Bros., and a
Mojang PR person who happened to be part of the panel responded, saying:
We actually don't have any news on that, but we do know that there is lots of folks in the community who have actually, on the feedback site, they have put in a request for it
So, demand exists within the Minecraft community. Furthermore, Steve gained a reputation as a popular "meme" pick due to the high amount of requests for him by children on Miiverse, Nintendo's Social Media
experiment platform. Returning to the idea of silent parts of the Smash fanbase existing outside of the Smash Bubble, I would say that there certainly exists a sizable group of people outside of core speculation websites that supports Steve and would voice said want given official outlets such as the Smash Ballot. It's important to consider the massive fanbase Minecraft has because by extension this means that Steve, in theory, has a massive fanbase behind his inclusion in Smash Bros. Steve is a safe bet from a business/sales standpoint as his inclusion could easily rope in sales of Switch consoles, Smash Bros., and/or DLC because Steve is in the game and there are a lot of people who would want to see him go against Mario and other iconic video game characters. There is a demand for Steve. It is underestimated by many, and that is a mistake.
What about the good old argument of "Sakurai bias?" Would Sakurai be inclined to include Steve if presented the idea of him by Nintendo or would he go out of his way to negotiate for him? I believe the answer to both of those questions is yes.
Let's take a look at the example of Joker. It's no small fact that Sakurai was a large fan of Persona 5,
writing an entire article in his Famitsu column praising its UI (something that shows within the game itself as the menus are similar to Persona 5's alongside the cut-ins of a character's render whenever they perform a Final Smash similar to when characters in the game use skills or conduct an All Out Attack) and attending the Persona Super Live P-Sound Bomb!!!!! 2017 at the invitation of Atlus,
which he later wrote about in another article of his column. While Sakurai has written many different columns about many different games, I believe that Sakurai's interactions with Minecraft are worth noting.
To start,
he played Minecraft in a 2016 Livestream, so at the very least Minecraft is on his radar. More notable is the article he wrote about Minecraft,
"The Potential of Simple Actions" wherein he says this:
Sakurai said:
Yoiko’s Minecraft Survival was an interesting show, so I decided to start playing Minecraft. I don’t usually go back to games after I’ve completed them, but when something piques my interest, it can’t be helped. Wait a second. This time I’m going to be playing on the Nintendo Switch
Sakurai plays a lot of different video games and doesn't revisit games often, so when does decide to replay a game it's important because he took time from playing a newer game to revisit an older game assumably because he likes it that much.
Additionally,
Sakurai has recently appeared on Yoiko's Minecraft Survival three times for Yoiko's Super Smash Brothers Ultimate Lifestyle, a bit related to the main show (they even use little Minecraft avatars to show who's who at the beginning of the episodes). Sakurai also tweeted back and forth with the show, saying "
That's cool!" in response to a clip of the second episode, and
a similarly positive message that I can't translate in response to a link of the fourth episode.
Sakurai also notes Minecraft's Japanese popularity within another article, saying:
Sakurai said:
Outside of Japan, games like Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe…did not take the number one spot. Minecraft…didn’t get it either. Somehow, it was Stardew Valley!! Minecraft, which was number one in Japan, came in at number two. What the heck is going on. I can’t believe it.
I think Sakurai's surprise at that Stardew Valley taking the number one spot on the Japanese charts instead of Minecraft is another fact that speaks for itself. Yes, Minecraft is just that popular.