Stage Speculation and Discussion Thread

Chinderblock

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Sakurai never said "as of now, the stage count is 103".

Sakurai's exact words were "Let's compare it to the totals in previous games. Now the total number of stages is, viola! 103! We must be crazy. If we exclude Battlefield, Final Destination, and Big Battlefield, we have exactly 100."

There is a difference.

"Now" (not "as of now") in Sakurai's statement refers to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. It is used in comparison to "then" (previous Super Smash Bros. games). In both cases he is talking about the (final) total stage count.

Sakurai confirmed that there are 103 total stages again in this interview:

https://www.sourcegaming.info/2018/...smash-direct-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-561/

"If you include Battlefield, Big Battlefield, and Final Destination, then there are 103 stages–104 if you also add in the Training Stage."

"Despite struggling to gather the necessary human resources, we made it our mission to put together 100 stages, so I hope you enjoy them."

Sakurai didn't say that he has revealed 103 stages so far, he said there are 103 stages.
And that still would be information he gave during the past while speaking of the present tense.

Again, it's clear he will not tell us any stages if they're going to be from newcomer series. That would ruin the surprise. It's unlikely there are more, but a lot of this information is also translated, and the problem with that is translations can't always tell exact wording due to how strange languages are. Even Push can confirm how trying to translate stuff can be difficult.
 
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And that still would be information he gave during the past while speaking of the present tense.

Again, it's clear he will not tell us any stages if they're going to be from newcomer series. That would ruin the surprise. It's unlikely there are more, but a lot of this information is also translated, and the problem with that is translations can't always tell exact wording due to how strange languages are. Even Push can confirm how trying to translate stuff can be difficult.
I agree that Sakurai wouldn't tell us about stages from new series with unrevealed fighters. That much is clear.

If there were additional stages, however, I think it's equally clear that Sakurai wouldn't announce and emphasize a specific number as being the "total stage count" when it is not.

He almost certainly would have said "over 100 stages!" or "100+ stages" and made it clear that more stages are coming.

It is possible that Sakurai's statements were imprecisely translated, but I consider that to be extremely unlikely.
 

Chinderblock

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I agree that Sakurai wouldn't tell us about stages from new series with unrevealed fighters. That much is clear.

If there were additional stages, however, I think it's equally clear that Sakurai wouldn't announce and emphasize a specific number as being the "total stage count" when it is not.

He almost certainly would have said "over 100 stages!" or "100+ stages" and made it clear that more stages are coming.

It is possible that Sakurai's statements were imprecisely translated, but I consider that to be extremely unlikely.
And his statement is still talking about the present tense. Nothing really changes this, so him referring to the final stage count is just as reasonable of an interpretation as referring to the stage count as of the current development period.

The game wasn't finished at that point, which means with a vague statement, it's still quite possible more are coming. It doesn't mean they definitely are. Just like it doesn't mean they definitely aren't(I think I got the double negative right to make the point clear?). It's not really possible to tell till the game gets leaked or we find out more. These are nothing more than theories, really.
 
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And his statement is still talking about the present tense. Nothing really changes this, so him referring to the final stage count is just as reasonable of an interpretation as referring to the stage count as of the current development period.

The game wasn't finished at that point, which means with a vague statement, it's still quite possible more are coming. It doesn't mean they definitely are. Just like it doesn't mean they definitely aren't(I think I got the double negative right to make the point clear?). It's not really possible to tell till the game gets leaked or we find out more. These are nothing more than theories, really.
I really don't think these are equally reasonable interpretations... In my opinion, "now" almost certainly refers to the finished game. As in the phrase: Back in the day we [......], but now [......]

Here Sakurai is basically saying

"Back in the old Smash Bros games we had X total stages, but now, in the latest game (Super Smash Bros. Ultimate), we have/will have Y total stages."

I find it very hard to believe that he meant

"In the previous Smash Bros games we had X total stages, but at this current point in development we have (or are willing to show you) exactly Y stages, but there may be more in the final game. Oh by the way, if we don't count three stages we have exactly 100 developed/revealed so far."

I guess we can just agree to disagree on that.

Edit: Perhaps I'm being a bit repetitive.
TLDR: My view is that it doesn't matter that he used the present tense, he was still likely referring to the final game.
 
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Thinkaman

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The stage list was locked in six months ago, or at least four.

The only "present tense" in the time frame of August is QA and marketing.
 
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No matter what the stage situation is for base game, I highly doubt DLC will be in the bottom row and not in their own tab selectable at the top of the stage select screen. It just makes too much sense.
 

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I think both are plausible. Recall that Smash 4 only had 4 non-returning DLC stages, once you discount Miiverse.
 

RileyXY1

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No matter what the stage situation is for base game, I highly doubt DLC will be in the bottom row and not in their own tab selectable at the top of the stage select screen. It just makes too much sense.
Yeah, and having the DLC stages in the bottom row will essentially mean that there will be only 6 DLC stages (which I highly doubt).
 

lucasla

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Sakurai never said "as of now, the stage count is 103".

Sakurai's exact words were "Let's compare it to the totals in previous games. Now the total number of stages is, viola! 103! We must be crazy. If we exclude Battlefield, Final Destination, and Big Battlefield, we have exactly 100."

There is a difference.

"Now" (not "as of now") in Sakurai's statement refers to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. It is used in comparison to "then" (previous Super Smash Bros. games). In both cases he is talking about the (final) total stage count.

Sakurai confirmed that there are 103 total stages again in this interview:

https://www.sourcegaming.info/2018/...smash-direct-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-561/

"If you include Battlefield, Big Battlefield, and Final Destination, then there are 103 stages–104 if you also add in the Training Stage."

"Despite struggling to gather the necessary human resources, we made it our mission to put together 100 stages, so I hope you enjoy them."

Sakurai didn't say that he has revealed 103 stages so far, he said there are 103 stages.
I wouldn't be surprised if in next directs he just increase the number again. Specially if they are going to build a campaign mode that will need to have a lot of different levels with different designs that could be easily transformed into stages. I think we will see in a new direct, a lot of original content, with the remaining characters, new stages and the reveal of the campaign and multiplayer details (maybe a full rank system?)
 
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Come to think of it, if the final stage count is actually 103, then the most recent alleged leak which claimed the remainder of the roster to add those seven characters would be deconfirmed. There's no way Sakurai is going to add new franchises and not give them a new stage. It would be disrespectful to Mach Rider, Golden Sun, and Rhythm Heaven.
 

Chinderblock

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Come to think of it, if the final stage count is actually 103, then the most recent alleged leak which claimed the remainder of the roster to add those seven characters would be deconfirmed. There's no way Sakurai is going to add new franchises and not give them a new stage. It would be disrespectful to Mach Rider, Golden Sun, and Rhythm Heaven.
The problem is that this has happened before. Ness, R.O.B., Captain Falcon all had no new stages. Mind you, there's good reasons for it(Ness and Falcon were last minute additions and R.O.B. doesn't really have a great place to represent it, unlike other franchises).

Don't forget how awesome the locales of Banjo & Kazooie are, which would be missing too. I can't see a 3rd party franchise not getting one. First party, sure, but 3rd parties have always gotten stages.

That said, this also would be looking into patterns. It could go either way, really. I wouldn't say the 103 proves anything wrong, but it doesn't help its chances of being real.
 
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The problem is that this has happened before. Ness, R.O.B., Captain Falcon all had no new stages. Mind you, there's good reasons for it(Ness and Falcon were last minute additions and R.O.B. doesn't really have a great place to represent it, unlike other franchises).

That said, this also would be looking into patterns. It could go either way, really. I wouldn't say the 103 proves anything wrong, but it doesn't help its chances of being real.
As far as I can recall, Smash Melee not having a dedicated stage for Marth was the last time the franchise did that excluding ROB which really doesn't have anything to go off of. He can make a hone out of the retro titles anyways to be honest.

I'm actually on "TEAM FAKE" as the one thread calls it, and I was even before coming to that realization. I was actually trying to say that if 103 is the final stage count, then it means that the full roster leak has an extremely low chance of being real as the newly introduced franchises wouldn't get a stage.

Again, there is a chance of more stages, and everything I have been saying would be meaningless if that is true, but Sakurai made the answer to that question pretty ambiguous, so there's really no way to tell.
 
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If the banner leak is true. This is my stance on the stages.

-Bowser's Castle/Forest Maze/Super Mario RPG
-Mach Rider stage
-Rhythm Heaven stage
-Spiral Mountain
-Venus Lighthouse
 

Chinderblock

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As far as I can recall, Smash Melee not having a dedicated stage for Marth was the last time the franchise did that excluding ROB which really doesn't have anything to go off of. He can make a hone out of the retro titles anyways to be honest.

I'm actually on "TEAM FAKE" as the one thread calls it, and I was even before coming to that realization. I was actually trying to say that if 103 is the final stage count, then it means that the full roster leak has an extremely low chance of being real as the newly introduced franchises wouldn't get a stage.

Again, there is a chance of more stages, and everything I have been saying would be meaningless if that is true, but Sakurai made the answer to that question pretty ambiguous, so there's really no way to tell.
Though in Marth's case, they planned a stage. It could be they planned these stages but didn't have enough time and will make them DLC. Could be akin to Mewtwo in 4, to a degree.

But yeah, I do agree we could get more stages(I think 103 is far more likely for base, but we don't know until the game releases).

Regardless, all I was pointing out is that it being 103 doesn't mean the roster leak is fake. It just means it could hurt the leak. That's all. I hope that's clear enough. :)
 
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I have to comment on the banner leak because it and the related information are the strongest points for Banjo-Kazooie being in the game. And that is a series that matters deeply to me.

If Banjo-Kazooie's trademark was renewed so recently, then they must be a character that's very hastily added to the game if they're in the vanilla release. This means that they will have the least amount of testing and professional scrutiny when balancing just like Corrin and Bayonetta in Smash 4. So I will enjoy Banjo & Kazooie being the uncontested best character in the game until the first few balance patches stabilize them, and I will still continue to play them after.

Unless, you know, they're designed to have Bad Kit like Zelda and Samus.
 
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I'm struggling a bit to reconcile three points which individually seem very likely, but cannot all be true:

(1) There are 103 total stages in the final game. Sakurai said (and emphasized) that there are 103 total stages in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I personally thought it was quite clear that he was referring to the final game, but others interpreted his statements as vague, or as only referring to the number of stages currently revealed. It is also possible that Sakurai was simply lying.

(2) All newcomers from series without a stage will get a stage. I know that in previous Smash Bros games there were newcomers from series without a stage, but I believe this is a thing of the past. In Smash 4 all newcomers had a corresponding stage, and I believe this is likely the case for Smash Bros. Ultimate as well. Of course, it's possible that this is not the case (especially if some characters were added late in development).

(3) The grinch leak is true. Ignoring Sakurai's statements about the total number of characters and stages, the grinch leak appears to have a lot going for it. If it is fake, it would be arguably the most impressive fake Smash Bros leak ever made, fooling more people than perhaps any other fake Smash Bros leak. It is, however, possible that it is just that - a very impressive fake.

Clearly, not all of these statements can be true. At least one of them is false. I'm not quite sure which one is the weakest link. I see three plausible possibilities:

(A) (1) is false, (2) and (3) are true. In this case I believe the most likely scenario is that we get all the newcomers specified in the grinch leak and 108 stages (a new stage for each unique newcomer without a corresponding stage).

(B) (2) is false, (1) and (3) are true. In this case, I believe the most likely scenario is that we get all the newcomers specified in the grinch leak and 103 total stages.

(C) (3) is false, (1) and (2) are true. In this case, I believe the most likely scenario is that the only remaining newcomers are Incineroar and Ken, and that there are 103 total stages.

I'm curious to know what you guys think. Which point is the weakest?
 
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I have to comment on the banner leak because it and the related information are the strongest points for Banjo-Kazooie being in the game. And that is a series that matters deeply to me.

If Banjo-Kazooie's trademark was renewed so recently, then they must be a character that's very hastily added to the game if they're in the vanilla release. This means that they will have the least amount of testing and professional scrutiny when balancing just like Corrin and Bayonetta in Smash 4. So I will enjoy Banjo & Kazooie being the uncontested best character in the game until the first few balance patches stabilize them, and I will still continue to play them after.

Unless, you know, they're designed to have Bad Kit like Zelda and Samus.
Just putting this out there, I am 90% certain that I did not post this in this thread. I don't know why it was ping-ponged between this and a relevant thread over the course of 24 hours, nor do I know why it ended up here. But if anyone on this site knew what they were doing or had any standards, it wouldn't be Smashboards.

Relevant post: After Splatoon 2 there is absolutely no excuse to not bring back Miiverse.
 

Megadoomer

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I'm struggling a bit to reconcile three points which individually seem very likely, but cannot all be true:

(1) There are 103 total stages in the final game. Sakurai said (and emphasized) that there are 103 total stages in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I personally thought it was quite clear that he was referring to the final game, but others interpreted his statements as vague, or as only referring to the number of stages currently revealed. It is also possible that Sakurai was simply lying.

(2) All newcomers from series without a stage will get a stage. I know that in previous Smash Bros games there were newcomers from series without a stage, but I believe this is a thing of the past. In Smash 4 all newcomers had a corresponding stage, and I believe this is likely the case for Smash Bros. Ultimate as well. Of course, it's possible that this is not the case (especially if some characters were added late in development).

(3) The grinch leak is true. Ignoring Sakurai's statements about the total number of characters and stages, the grinch leak appears to have a lot going for it. If it is fake, it would be arguably the most impressive fake Smash Bros leak ever made, fooling more people than perhaps any other fake Smash Bros leak. It is, however, possible that it is just that - a very impressive fake.

Clearly, not all of these statements can be true. At least one of them is false. I'm not quite sure which one is the weakest link. I see three plausible possibilities:

(A) (1) is false, (2) and (3) are true. In this case I believe the most likely scenario is that we get all the newcomers specified in the grinch leak and 108 stages (a new stage for each unique newcomer without a corresponding stage).

(B) (2) is false, (1) and (3) are true. In this case, I believe the most likely scenario is that we get all the newcomers specified in the grinch leak and 103 total stages.

(C) (3) is false, (1) and (2) are true. In this case, I believe the most likely scenario is that the only remaining newcomers are Incineroar and Ken, and that there are 103 total stages.

I'm curious to know what you guys think. Which point is the weakest?
The way I see it, your first point was referring to the amount of stages currently revealed - 103 stages were posted onto the site after that Direct, and if they said there were more than 103 stages, it would have given away that there are still new franchises that are being added to Ultimate. (Plus, those six conspicuous blank spots really stand out, seeing as the stage list isn't even centered, or the number of stages per row isn't changed to spread them out more evenly)

That leaves the door open for your second and third points to be true. Maybe I'm biased (I'm hoping that the Grinch leak is true, even if I'm expecting that we'll get the Vergeben leak instead), but it seems odd to announce the final total for stages (and, by extension, make it clear that no new franchises will be added beyond Splatoon and Castlevania) roughly six months before the game even comes out.
 
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The way I see it, your first point was referring to the amount of stages currently revealed - 103 stages were posted onto the site after that Direct, and if they said there were more than 103 stages, it would have given away that there are still new franchises that are being added to Ultimate. (Plus, those six conspicuous blank spots really stand out, seeing as the stage list isn't even centered, or the number of stages per row isn't changed to spread them out more evenly)

That leaves the door open for your second and third points to be true. Maybe I'm biased (I'm hoping that the Grinch leak is true, even if I'm expecting that we'll get the Vergeben leak instead), but it seems odd to announce the final total for stages (and, by extension, make it clear that no new franchises will be added beyond Splatoon and Castlevania) roughly six months before the game even comes out.
Athough I hate to admit it, I'm starting to think that this is correct. Point (1) appears to be the weakest, thus making scenario (A) the most likely. (I suppose this is the best outcome. Who wouldn't want more stages and characters?)

I guess we'll find out on November 1st!
 

RileyXY1

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The fact that there was no music post today confirms that there will be at least one new franchise rep to be revealed tomorrow. CoroCoro's initial claim of "108 stages" is most likely a leak that they had to cover up.
 

fogbadge

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The fact that there was no music post today confirms that there will be at least one new franchise rep to be revealed tomorrow. CoroCoro's initial claim of "108 stages" is most likely a leak that they had to cover up.
thats a bit of a leak really it just suggests that they want to save the music for whomever is revealed tomorrow
 
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The fact that there was no music post today confirms that there will be at least one new franchise rep to be revealed tomorrow. CoroCoro's initial claim of "108 stages" is most likely a leak that they had to cover up.
The fact that they haven't posted music yet just means they're saving it for whoever get revealed tomorrow to build up more hype over them whether they are a new franchise or not. They did it for :ultridley:, and :ultkrool:.
 
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NewGuy79

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has there been any discussion on Dracula's castle? seem like the stage with hazards off may be a contender for legal status if its tree house footage is anything to go by.

the only real concerns for the stage would be:
  1. the small walls, which I think are too small to actually lock a character in place, at worst diagonally up smash di will probably be needed to escape some of the more consistent multi-hitting moves
  2. the staircase on the right, could be a good position for some character to camp, this, of course, requires testing. I, however, think sacrificing stage pressure may not be worth camping the edge
what do you guys think? it seems like the competitive stage list for Ultimate is gonna get even larger then it already is.
 

blackghost

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stage morphing should be properly tested. the pros outweigh the cons which have not been explicitly shown. making a first round stage actually neutral heavily benefits comepititve play and removes the need for semi banned I mean semi counterpick stages.
 
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Chinderblock

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Maybe Piranha Plant will come that Bowser's Castle many want?
 

Royalty1702

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Welp, a stage has to come with a fighter. So Megaton Punch Arena if Waddle Dee gets in because it represents when BWD debuted in the Kirby series.
 

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Do you guys think Piranha Plant will come with a stage? If so, which stage? Piranha Plant coming with a stage, in addition to the other 5, would make the stage selection screen a perfect square.
 

RileyXY1

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Do you guys think Piranha Plant will come with a stage? If so, which stage? Piranha Plant coming with a stage, in addition to the other 5, would make the stage selection screen a perfect square.
Piranha Plant is not coming with a stage because it is not a part of the Fighter Pass.
 
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