SSB4 Rumours and Leaks

[TheTuninator]

You guys are being silly and over analytical. It's making you derp.

So he was super confident with all his other "lies" but for some reason with pokemon he decided to be vague because he wasn't confident with that lie? Easier to be vague with your lie because then it can be easily confirmed right. Well no, that doesn't make a lick of sense because he was VERY F**KING specific about everything else. If he were lying about it all he'd just list a specific pokemon OR he would be vague with everyone else or more than 1 out of 11.

He doesn't need to be vague with any of the other guesses. Xenoblade will never have any rep but Shulk, KI none but Palutena, Awakening's was always going to be Chrom, etc.

He's specific with 10 people but this one, that he's somewhat vague with...he must be lying because he's vague with this one? If it wasn't confirmed you guys wouldn't give a crap about it. But since it turned out to be accurate you have a lot of people over analyzing it and coming up with illogical reasons why it's fishy.

Sometimes this board gives me a headache.

There's nothing "illogical" about decrying a vague leak as fishy. That's pretty much all we do in this thread.

I'm not trying to suggest that the entire leak is wrong, merely that this new batch of predictions gain no weight based on Greninja's reveal.

I'd say Wolf is most likely and my choice for getting cut if I could pick.

that also leaves a final newcomer spot Sal doesn't know about (if these leaks are true of course) at the front of the running are Takamaru and Isaac imo...though I have a lingering suspicion Ridley is playable, maybe i've just drilled it in my head but theres something so suspicious about the sloooooow reveal he's getting.

No way Ridley is playable. Sakurai's teasing it out to keep people interested.

All bets for cuts are off after losing Squirtle and Ivysaur and keeping Toon Link, I'd say.

 

[Shroob]

I'd say Wolf is most likely and my choice for getting cut if I could pick.

that also leaves a final newcomer spot Sal doesn't know about (if these leaks are true of course) at the front of the running are Takamaru and Isaac imo...though I have a lingering suspicion Ridley is playable, maybe i've just drilled it in my head but theres something so suspicious about the sloooooow reveal he's getting.

Well, why does it have to be a newcomer, per se? What if it's Mewtwo? How many newcomers would be we have if the Sal leak is true?

 

[ScottyWK]

"Pokemon from X & Y" is so laughably vague and obvious that it can hardly be credited as an accurate guess. Every Smash game has had Pokemon from the most recent gen.

Again, being this vague does not jive with the rest of the leaker's guesses. This man can nail Wii Fit Trainer but he doesn't know the Pokemon? The roster's been a lock since before E3 last year, so that's not an excuse, and the leaker's source has given him every other character accurately. Why, then, does he not know the Pokemon?

Good leaks are accurate, getting specific and/or unlikely details right, such as Wii Fit Trainer's announcement at E3. "Pokemon from X & Y" sounds like something from a terrible fake "leak" where the user's just trying to avoid being disproved as long as possible.

Nobody should be giving this leaker any credit for guessing "Pokemon from X & Y". Like I said, it's all about the WFT guess, nothing else. Unlike everything else, the WFT guess was unlikely (it's WFT), specific (announced at E3) and accurate.

Did he say how he got his leak? What if he was just shown a screenshot of the final roster, or a list of the characters, and had to remember them? What I'm saying is, every one of the characters in his leak I would personally recognize upon first glance (or even by name), EXCEPT Greninja. I would see that and be confused, and upon remembering probably just say "Some pokemon from the new series." Just trying to put myself in his shoes.

Then again, this post is totally invalid if the specifics of how his leak was obtained are given.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Well, why does it have to be a newcomer, per se? What if it's Mewtwo? How many newcomers would be we have if the Sal leak is true?

Twelve, discounting Charizard.

 

[Miles Pierre]

"Pokemon from X & Y" is so laughably vague and obvious that it can hardly be credited as an accurate guess. Every Smash game has had Pokemon from the most recent gen.

Again, being this vague does not jive with the rest of the leaker's guesses. This man can nail Wii Fit Trainer but he doesn't know the Pokemon? The roster's been a lock since before E3 last year, so that's not an excuse, and the leaker's source has given him every other character accurately. Why, then, does he not know the Pokemon?

Good leaks are accurate, getting specific and/or unlikely details right, such as Wii Fit Trainer's announcement at E3. "Pokemon from X & Y" sounds like something from a terrible fake "leak" where the user's just trying to avoid being disproved as long as possible.

Nobody should be giving this leaker any credit for guessing "Pokemon from X & Y". Like I said, it's all about the WFT guess, nothing else. Unlike everything else, the WFT guess was unlikely (it's WFT), specific (announced at E3) and accurate.

this doesn't make sense when he was very specific about 10 other newcomers. Anyone being wrong could end his leak. If he's lying why not just make up a random pokemon to insert since that's what he supposedly did for everyone else. Why wouldn't he be vague with the rest of the characters? I'm not going to provide explanations as to why the person didn't name greninja because that's moot. It could be anything. What is important though is that you cannot use that sort of reasoning here. It doesn't make sense.

 

[Shroob]

Twelve, discounting Charizard.

Well, twelve is a good, round number...

 

[Banjodorf]

I'd say Wolf is most likely and my choice for getting cut if I could pick.

that also leaves a final newcomer spot Sal doesn't know about (if these leaks are true of course) at the front of the running are Takamaru and Isaac imo...though I have a lingering suspicion Ridley is playable, maybe i've just drilled it in my head but theres something so suspicious about the sloooooow reveal he's getting.

Final newcomer slot he doesn't know about? What?

Well, based on the fact that Sakurai didn't eradicate the Kremlings from existence, I wouldn't be surprised (and hope that) it's K. Rool.

Let's see what happens. Shulk + Palutena hype though!

 

[Zhadgon]

Even so, why did his informant not know it was Greninja? Let's look at the facts. Every other prediction from this leaker has been 100% precise. Little Mac, WFT, Pac, Mega Man, Villager, Mii, Chrom, Shulk, Palutena, Chorus Kids, and "Pokemon from X & Y"? It just feels off.

Every other character he's guessed is the obvious rep for that game/series, but when he gets to the game with a dozen or so reps of an equal chance, he doesn't know?

I mean, come on. Some skepticism here is warranted. He didn't guess Greninja, he guessed "Pokemon from X & Y". Hardly an inspired prediction when both Melee and Brawl gave us a Pokemon newcomer from the most recent gen.

Yeah it seems off and thats what is keeping me to believe 100% but in the case two more characters are revealed and match his list I will believe what he is saying, by now it seems Pac-Man is confirmed and Miis too, Palutena is likely as Chrom, the only ones in the thin rope are Chorus Kids (that I believe is Marshal, call it "gut feeling") and Shulk but knowing Sakurai that he post about the Monado in his Twitter and one of the directors/designers/workers from Monolith Soft tweet about the Smash Direct makes me believe that Shulk is probable.

So in all, some pretty safe choices and others no so much still in a 60% percent for me of being truth.

.n_n.

 

[TheTuninator]

Did he say how he got his leak? What if he was just shown a screenshot of the final roster, or a list of the characters, and had to remember them? What I'm saying is, every one of the characters in his leak I would personally recognize upon first glance (or even by name), EXCEPT Greninja. I would see that and be confused, and upon remembering probably just say "Some pokemon from the new series." Just trying to put myself in his shoes.

Then again, this post is totally invalid if the specifics of how his leak was obtained are given.

If he knows that the Pokemon is from Gen 6 and what it looks like it's child's play to identify the name of the Pokemon using a quick google search.

For the record, I believe that the veracity of his initial predictions remains unaffected by this new wave. I'm calling bull on these new ones, though.

this doesn't make sense when he was very specific about 10 other newcomers. Anyone being wrong could end his leak. If he's lying why not just make up a random pokemon to insert since that's what he supposedly did for everyone else. Why wouldn't he be vague with the rest of the characters? I'm not going to provide explanations as to why the person didn't name greninja because that's moot. It could be anything. What is important though is that you cannot use that sort of reasoning here. It doesn't make sense.

If he truly doesn't know and he guessed Chesnaught, he would be outed as fake right now. Instead, we have many people arguing over whether or not he has inside information. See what I'm gettinga t?

Under the particular chain of skeptical analysis I am advocating here, the leaker did not make up the other reps at random. He looked at their series and chose the only likely/overwhelmingly likeliest inclusion; they're all safe picks. Gen VI has no safe picks, so he has to hedge his bets.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Well, twelve is a good, round number...

Yeah, and it would make sense for the mystery character to be Mewtwo, because it would explain why the Gematsu guy didn't leak him (he's technically a vet).

But I would be kind of surprised for neither Ridley, a DK rep, OR Takamaru to get in.

 

[Shroob]

Final newcomer slot he doesn't know about? What?

Well, based on the fact that Sakurai didn't eradicate the Kremlings from existence, I wouldn't be surprised (and hope that) it's K. Rool.

Let's see what happens. Shulk + Palutena hype though!

If you add the MK8 guy, who said 48 characters but 4 cuts, and the Sal leak, that's 48 characters, if we count Squirtle and Ivysaur as seperate characters and Snake as one. But that's with 3 cuts only, with 4, it's 47, meaning there'd be a new character.

 

[papagenos]

Well, why does it have to be a newcomer, per se? What if it's Mewtwo? How many newcomers would be we have if the Sal leak is true?

oh mewtwo is totally possible still, like i suggested with him > jigs it could be mewtwo > wolf as well or whoever is being cut really.

Nobody should be giving this leaker any credit for guessing "Pokemon from X & Y". Like I said, it's all about the WFT guess, nothing else. Unlike everything else, the WFT guess was unlikely (it's WFT), specific (announced at E3) and accurate.

as for Sal leak resting only on wii fit trainer...it doesnt it rests on WFT and Megaman AND villager all revealed at E3 while one of his other predictions, Little Mac, gets revealed much later and nothing disconfirming PacMan OR Mii's which mind you could EASILLY have been assists or stage stuff or items or ANYTHING and havent been yet. His leaks have stood the test of time AND now on top of all that hours before the direct when anything he says could shatter everything he leaks MORE stuff and one of them (though vague) ends up being TRUE.

he has earned credibility, its not just that he got WFT but even if it WAS that should be enough cause it's guessing the unguessable Wii Fit Trainer!!!

If Choir Men get in and people still don't believe him...It's a world of denial at that point.

 

[Banjodorf]

If you add the MK8 guy, who said 48 characters but 4 cuts, and the Sal leak, that's 48 characters, if we count Squirtle and Ivysaur as seperate characters and Snake as one. But that's with 3 cuts only, with 4, it's 47.

Sweeeeet.

There's hope for the king yet. Either way I'm pleased COMPLETELY with those newcomers, but the King getting the recognition he deserves would sure be the best tasting icing of all time.

I'm gonna bet on Wolf also. I just can't see Sakurai cutting Lucas. Then again, yesterday I wouldn't have predicted Greninja, so let's see.

 

[Shroob]

Sweeeeet.

There's hope for the king yet. Either way I'm pleased COMPLETELY with those newcomers, but the King getting the recognition he deserves would sure be the best tasting icing of all time.

I'm gonna bet on Wolf also. I just can't see Sakurai cutting Lucas. Then again, yesterday I wouldn't have predicted Greninja, so let's see.

Granted, considering Sal hasn't mentioned any veterans, that final slot could go to Mewtwo.

 

[Ta1nted_4ngel29]

247 screenshots from press kit. (Thank Farvin111 from gamefaqs for showing)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/48280274@N02/sets/72157643678092364/

OMG this is a Treasure Trove.

 

[Miles Pierre]

He doesn't need to be vague with any of the other guesses. Xenoblade will never have any rep but Shulk, KI none but Palutena, Awakening's was always going to be Chrom, etc.



There's nothing "illogical" about decrying a vague leak as fishy. That's pretty much all we do in this thread.

I'm not trying to suggest that the entire leak is wrong, merely that this new batch of predictions gain no weight based on Greninja's reveal..

So you list what? Shulk, Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem and all the sudden that answers for the others? He was very specific with 10 newcomers. You only named 3. And every franchise isn't a guaranteed lock or a guaranteed newcomer so I really don't get where you're going.

* Little Mac
* Wii Fit Trainer
* Pac-Man
* Mii
* Villager
* MegaMan

• Shulk (Xenoblade)

• Palutena (Kid Icarus)

• Chrom (Fire Emblem: Awakening)

• Chorus Men (Rhythm Heaven)

• Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y

Again. He's very specific with 10. Pokemon didn't need a new rep at all. That's possible. And it certainly didn't have to come from X/Y. Your point makes no sense because he could have said that for almost any newcomer.

ex:
* There is a retro character from Nintendo
* There is a character from animal crossing
* There is a character from Rhythm Heaven
* There is a new character from fire emblem
* There are retro 3rd party characters

I will agree that Greninja doesn't mean this leak is now undeniable. In my opinion it does raise it's likelihood slightly, but not as much if her were to have named the pokemon.

 

[Banjodorf]

Granted, considering Sal hasn't mentioned any veterans, that final slot could go to Mewtwo.

Also true. ...What I wouldn't give to have Jiggs cut for Mewtwo.

The game would be perfect as long as K. Rool gets an important role. Honestly, that roster up there + Mewtwo - Jiggs = frickin' fantastic.

 

[TheTuninator]

as for Sal leak resting only on wii fit trainer...it doesnt it rests on WFT and Megaman AND villager all revealed at E3

Wii Fit Trainer was the only difficult prediction, so the leak does revolve around her. I myself guessed Mega Man's reveal at E3 and AC is one of Nintendo's biggest series still unrepresented in Smash, which was currently riding the hype of New Leaf. Wii Fit Trainer was an amazingly difficult guess; the others were not.

while one of his other predictions, Little Mac, gets revealed much later and nothing disconfirming PacMan OR Mii's which mind you could EASILLY have been assists or stage stuff or items or ANYTHING and havent been yet. His leaks have stood the test of time AND now on top of all that hours before the direct when anything he says could shatter everything he leaks MORE stuff and one of them (though vague) ends up being TRUE.

Vague predictions are worth nothing when it comes to leaks. The E3 leak remains incredibly solid because it is built upon a highly accurate, specific prediction. Dime-a-dozen fake leaks are the ones who make vague statements and hedge their bets.

he has earned credibility, its not just that he got WFT but even if it WAS that should be enough cause it's guessing the unguessable Wii Fit Trainer!!!

If Choir Men get in and people still don't believe him...It's a world of denial at that point.

Choir Men getting in will be more than enough proof for me that the second round of guesses was accurate.

As for credibility, in my mind, no leaker has earned credibility until their statements are proven 100% correct, or nearly that. In this guy's case, I'd be willing to accept him as credible even barring his partially failed prediction at E3 if all his character predictions come true, but not until then.

 

[Miles Pierre]

If he knows that the Pokemon is from Gen 6 and what it looks like it's child's play to identify the name of the Pokemon using a quick google search.

For the record, I believe that the veracity of his initial predictions remains unaffected by this new wave. I'm calling bull on these new ones, though.



If he truly doesn't know and he guessed Chesnaught, he would be outed as fake right now. Instead, we have many people arguing over whether or not he has inside information. See what I'm gettinga t?

Under the particular chain of skeptical analysis I am advocating here, the leaker did not make up the other reps at random. He looked at their series and chose the only likely/overwhelmingly likeliest inclusion; they're all safe picks. Gen VI has no safe picks, so he has to hedge his bets.

No. I don't get what you're getting at. What you're saying could be applied to any and all of the characters. If an animal crossing character was an AT it would be fake. If Little Mac was an AT again it would be fake. If WFT was not it the game we wouldn't be discussing this. If Capcom had no representatives we wouldn't be discussing this rumor. You keep looking at this rumor as if he ONLY said there is a pokemon from X/Y. If that were the case I'd agree with you. But it's not. If he really wanted the leak to survive then he would have been generic with a lot more newcomers than just pokemon.

edit: what's with this trend where people assume that because they are being skeptical they are being logical. Skepticism (for the most part) is healthy but it needs to be logical skepticism.

 

[papagenos]

if Wolf's cut and Fox gets his "moves" as possible alternate move set and a highly "wolf" looking costume. everyone wins(wolf fans anyway)...sort of.

Brawl, 6 pokemon reps: Pikachu, Charizard/Ivysaur/Squirtle, Lucario, JigglyPuff

Smash wiiu/3ds 4pokemon reps so far: Pikachu, Lucario, Charizard, Greninja...

to get back to 6 poke reps we'd need jigs AND mewtwo in... though this is also while Star Fox is theoretically going DOWN to 2 reps...though pokemon obviously deserves a heftier roster selection...

just saying.

 

[TewnLeenk]

I've been stuck on the hype train for too long, so sorry if this has been answered already...

But what's the kill count on leaks after that Direct?

 

[papagenos]

Wii Fit Trainer was the only difficult prediction, so the leak does revolve around her. I myself guessed Mega Man's reveal at E3 and AC is one of Nintendo's biggest series still unrepresented in Smash, which was currently riding the hype of New Leaf. Wii Fit Trainer was an amazingly difficult guess; the others were not.



Vague predictions are worth nothing when it comes to leaks. The E3 leak remains incredibly solid because it is built upon a highly accurate, specific prediction. Dime-a-dozen fake leaks are the ones who make vague statements and hedge their bets.



Choir Men getting in will be more than enough proof for me that the second round of guesses was accurate.

As for credibility, in my mind, no leaker has earned credibility until their statements are proven 100% correct, or nearly that. In this guy's case, I'd be willing to accept him as credible even barring his partially failed prediction at E3 if all his character predictions come true, but not until then.

Villager was unlikely since sakurai SAID he wouldnt give animal crossing a rep so saying he was in was going out on a limb for E3.
Megaman though highly requested wasn't as likely as...surprise, pacman. pre-E3 because everyone knew namco was working on the game and no one knew capcom was involved.

I get that there is doubt and that he hasnt been 100% accurate but I think your not giving him as much credit as he really deserves... it's at the point where its more likely true than false rather than the other way around, so even vague things like "pokemon X and Y rep" that turn out to be once again true should be seriously considered as likely actual leaks and not "guessing"... he put his credibility on the line (credibility that has lasted since last E3) right before the direct, that to me shows a lot.

 

[Shroob]

Wolf cut and Fox gets his moves as possible alternate move set and a highly "wolf" looking costume. everyone wins...sort of.

Brawl: Pikachu, Charizard/Ivysaur/Squirtle, Lucario, JigglyPuff
Smash 4: Pikachu, Lucario, Charizard, Greninja... to get back to 6 jigs AND mewtwo would be in... though this is also while Star Fox is theoretically going DOWN to 2 reps...though pokemon obviously deserves a heftier roster selection...

just saying.

It could be swapping Ike for Chrom, I guess, though I guess we'd have to see how Chrom plays. Ike still has a Radiant Dawn look he can use, but Nintendo seems to like to swap out Fire Emblem reps for the newest lord + Marth. That way, no series would go 'down' in reps, though I myself feel like Star Fox is highly overrepped.

 

[swordbreaker]

Yea I'll definitely give you that. The Ridley stage hazard is quite specific however. I don't think a Dixie confirmation would make me buy it though. Could just be a lucky guesser for all we know

I posted her youtube profile where she leaked a couple of videos of games for castlevania. I remember doing it during Brawl because I was freaking because of the roster. If it is PoR which is the only one it would be then it's pretty much over. She also DID NOT confirm Dixie, she just said that Diddy is not paired with Dixie. She also would not confirm or deny Little Mac when they guy relaying the info was trying to get out of her (and he is in).

http://www.youtube.com/user/MsPORTRAITofRUIN

Like I said before all of these dying characters (Lip, K. Rool, Ridley) it looks like Shulk is the only other fan requested character left. Even though I got Mega Man and MAYBE Shulk, and Villager, overall this looks like a roster that had even less fan focus than Brawl.

 

[KCCHIEFS27]

I think it's more a matter of giving the guy credit for getting everything else right in conjunction with getting the Pokemon X/Y right. It's like a March Madness bracket. The odds of guessing it are essentially impossible, so you give credit to someone who is so far pitching a "perfect bracket."

But he's not pitching a perfect bracket at all. Do you even know what the word perfect means?

 

[Ta1nted_4ngel29]

What if these "4 cut characters" (assuming any other cuts happen) include the PKMN Trainer himself with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and someone else?

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

But he's not pitching a perfect bracket at all. Do you even know what the word perfect means?

The odds are astronomical. Unless he is using the credibility gained from his legitimate leaks to throw in fake leaks, I think it's the most credible leak we have.

 

[Shroob]

What if these "4 cut characters" (assuming any other cuts happen) include the PKMN Trainer himself with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and someone else?

Pretty sure with Pac-Man all but confirmed at all this point, one of the cuts is Snake.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

What if these "4 cut characters" (assuming any other cuts happen) include the PKMN Trainer himself with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and someone else?

Sure, but it's equally likely that he is counting the Pokemon Trainer as a single character (he did say "slots" or something to that effect), and we are getting two mystery cuts.

 

[Zhadgon]

What if these "4 cut characters" (assuming any other cuts happen) include the PKMN Trainer himself with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and someone else?

PKMN Trainer is not a playable character so it dosen´t count to that list, I think the characters that are in the thin rope are Lucas, Jigglypuff, Ike and Wolf, everyone else are pretty much safe.
.n_n.

 

[Arcadenik]

Other than Galaga what else is there? Pong is Atari I believe.

It is not Pong. It is Color TV-Game 15. Yes, they both play the same... but Color TV-Game 15 is owned by Nintendo whereas Pong is owned by Atari.

 

[Shroob]

PKMN Trainer is not a playable character so it dosen´t count to that list, I think the characters that are in the thin rope are Lucas, Jigglypuff, Ike and Wolf, everyone else are pretty much safe.
.n_n.

I honestly think it'll be Ike. Swap him with Chrom. Not my ideal outcome but at the end of the day, every franchise won't go down from Brawl.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Fun fact with Squirtle and Ivysaur, it's the first time that starter characters have been cut.

 

[papagenos]

Sure, but it's equally likely that he is counting the Pokemon Trainer as a single character (he did say "slots" or something to that effect), and we are getting two mystery cuts.

Buuuuut now Sheik and Zero Suit Samus count as "slots" so I think that means ivysaur and squirtle would count for "cuts"... just makes sense the way they are counting characters this time around.

I honestly think it'll be Ike. Swap him with Chrom. Not my ideal outcome but at the end of the day, every franchise won't go down from Brawl.

Truuue but Ike was less (sorry i know people hate this being brought up) "clony" than Wolf or Lucas... Ike had an entirely unique moveset and that would be lost if he's cut, where as like i suggested wolf being cut and this new "changable moveset" mechanic could keep his playstyle in the game as an alternate fox moveset... Though maybe Ike's moveset could be given as an alternate for Chrom?

Not sure but still good point about no series "losing # of reps" by cutting Ike and adding mewtwo.

 

[Starbound]

I honestly think it'll be Ike. Swap him with Chrom. Not my ideal outcome but at the end of the day, every franchise won't go down from Brawl.

Depends how similar Chrom plays to Ike if Chrom gets revealed.

Things really don't look for Wolf though. Lucas is also on the fence in my opinion.

 

[Shroob]

Depends how similar Chrom plays to Ike if Chrom gets revealed.

Things really don't look for Wolf though. Lucas is also on the fence in my opinion.

I'd feel the same about Lucas, but seeing the Franklin badge back as an item takes some weight off of my shoulders, if only a little.

 

[praline]

I'd feel the same about Lucas, but seeing the Franklin badge back as an item takes some weight off of my shoulders, if only a little.

Franklin Badge was in Earthbound too. Doesn't effect Lucas' chances of returning.

 

[Starbound]

True, the Franklin Badge confirmation makes a lot of sense since it was so important in Mother 3.

I really hope one of the cuts isn't Snake though, because it'd suck to lose an entire universe in a game.

 

[Shroob]

Franklin Badge was in Earthbound too. Doesn't effect Lucas' chances of returning.

It was in the original Mother as well, but that doesn't change the fact it's a huge part of the story in Mother 3, which is why it was put in Brawl in the first place.

 

[Eight Melodies]

Franklin Badge was in Earthbound too. Doesn't effect Lucas' chances of returning.

The fact it was a new item in Brawl is what makes me feel better about Lucas.