Smashchu's Roster Analysis

[SmashChu]

I cant believe anyone would write the equivalent of a thesis about something so pointless as this, and yet, I respect how much work was put into it and anxiously await the conclusion.

Smash only comes one every few years. I probably did spend a bit too much time on it, but this is a rare opportunity we wont see for some time.

Something tells me that people are not exactly going to enjoy what they see, but oh well.

Probably not, but that's how rosters go.

I'm guessing when you post your Smash 4 roster you'll show what categories they fit in.

Yes.

 

[Vintage Creep]

Very nice and interesting read even though I don't agree with everything and you missed to talk about something (like Falcon's inclusion which is imho very interesting and important since he wouldn't probably have been in the first one if it wasn't for his particular situation).
When you'll post the rest?

 

[bobadz]

Very good read Smashchu.

 

[SmashChu]

Very nice and interesting read even though I don't agree with everything and you missed to talk about something (like Falcon's inclusion which is imho very interesting and important since he wouldn't probably have been in the first one if it wasn't for his particular situation).
When you'll post the rest?

Not sure what your talking about so maybe you can clarify that. As far as Falcon goes, there isn't much to say about him. F-Zero is one of Nintendo biggest series (or was back in 1999) so him being in Smash is not all that surprising.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Very good read, most of these things I already know of, which is why I constantly shrug when I see people chanting for unrealistic characters, but there were a few new things that I hadn't considered that makes sense. Pretty interested in seeing your predictions for the final roster.

 

[---]

Great read SmashChu. Was the first text wall I've ever thoroughly read.

You can expect the finished product to get a spot in the Directory thread (if that even means anything to anyone).

 

[Vintage Creep]

Not sure what your talking about so maybe you can clarify that. As far as Falcon goes, there isn't much to say about him. F-Zero is one of Nintendo biggest series (or was back in 1999) so him being in Smash is not all that surprising.

Meh, I'm not so sure that he would have get in if it wasn't for the fact that he's basically Dragon King.

 

[SmashChu]

Great read SmashChu. Was the first text wall I've ever thoroughly read.

You can expect the finished product to get a spot in the Directory thread (if that even means anything to anyone).

I can't believe it! I want to thank my mom. And my friends. And Oasis. And.....

Meh, I'm not so sure that he would have get in if it wasn't for the fact that he's basically Dragon King.

They used the same model for sure, but F-Zero was still a big series at the time. Captain Falcon made sense.

 

[volbound1700]

I do agree totally with your view about the Reps. There is nothing to indicate that we need to balance the series.

 

[Bajef8]

Love the entire analysis. I think a special case needs to be brought up about Pokemon kinda being "in" based off of their popularity in the show/movies. In the 1st game Pikachu (undoubtedly the mascot of Pokemon, and its mascot status being its reason of inclusion) is the best choice and Jiggs got in through being big in the current show. In Melee it made sense to add Pichu (lets no forget the Pichu brothers) and Mewtwo based on their appearances in the major movies. Jiggs wasnt axed due to it still being a small part of the show during Melee's development, as well as Jiggs being an "Original 12" member. Then of course Brawl comes along and adds Pokemon relevant to the new seasons/movies again. Brawl is a weird case however because it really only added 1 "relevant" Pokemon from the movies (Lucario). Brawl also saw the 1st removal of characters and I think Pokemon got kicked from the series because they became irrelevant to the show. Mewtwo and Pichu were cut because of this but Jiggs is an interesting case. I believe she was considered for being dropped due to her lack relevance to the show/movies. I think her "no show" in the Subspace gives credence to this argument. I think Sakurai, however, took note of her status as an "Original 12" member and kept her (thus cementing her into any future Smash in my opinion). Trainer just made sense. He's a guy who never gets the limelight but really is a large part of the series. So I guess what I'm saying is maybe provide a section for why characters may get cut from Brawl going into SSB4, since Brawl may have started a trend of doing this. On a side note My english brain wants to edit everything for you, if you'd like me to.

 

[Sharkarat]

Love the entire analysis. I think a special case needs to be brought up about Pokemon kinda being "in" based off of their popularity in the show/movies...

I disagree with you. While the show/movies affect their popularity, I think It's their popularity that got them in. Also Mewtwo most likely wasn't supposed to be cut (forbidden seven).

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Jigglypuff no doubt got in because of the show. However, Pikachu, Mewtwo and Lucario are popular even outside the show, and Pichu was regularly used for promotion during Gen II, and it was easy to make a Pikachu clone and joke character at the same time. Mewtwo was the strongest Pokémon until God decided to join in on the fun in Gen IV, and Lucario was the first Gen IV Pokémon to be revealed outside the starters, which made him more popular than any other Gen IV Pokémon, which was the current generation when Brawl came out. Squirtle, Ivysaur and Charizard, aka Pokémon Trainer, are obviously based 100% off the games, and frankly I'm surprised Charizard didn't make it into Melee given that he's without a doubt the fan-favorite Pokémon.

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Pretty well-written analysis there Chu- while it might clip more than we can think about potential wishes of Smash-characters, these are pretty dang reasonable and go deep taking account the way we've thought about criterias for inclusions and certain characters.

BTW, are you interested on expanding around the 3rd Parties and their addition to shut up most of the people expecting or throwing rumors about "realistic" 3rd parties in general?

 

[SmashChu]

I disagree with you. While the show/movies affect their popularity, I think It's their popularity that got them in. Also Mewtwo most likely wasn't supposed to be cut (forbidden seven).

Agreed. They play a bigger role in the show because they were popular Pokemon.

Pretty well-written analysis there Chu- while it might clip more than we can think about potential wishes of Smash-characters, these are pretty dang reasonable and go deep taking account the way we've thought about criterias for inclusions and certain characters.

BTW, are you interested on expanding around the 3rd Parties and their addition to shut up most of the people expecting or throwing rumors about "realistic" 3rd parties in general?

I could expand the third party section, but I'm not sure what else I can say. People have always over estimated them in Smash. During Brawl, it was expected we would have 3 third party characters. In the end, we only got 2. History will likely repeat itself and we'll get less (or none) than what people are expecting. The Why is that this the context of the game is Nintendo and that is what defines it (like the Alice in Wonderland like world of the Mushroom Kingdom is Mario's context). Thus, Sakurai keeps these in check.

I hope to post the roster soon. It's hard to do this during the week.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'd say to everyone that the more marketing focused PS All Stars had 4 (and DLC=5) third party characters and Sony has always relied on third party support more than Nintendo so don't go guessing there'll be like 3 new 3rd party people. Keep your hype high and your expectations low and you'll avoid the worst of the disappointment.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'd say to everyone that the more marketing focused PS All Stars had 4 (and DLC=5) third party characters and Sony has always relied on third party support more than Nintendo so don't go guessing there'll be like 3 new 3rd party people. Keep your hype high and your expectations low and you'll avoid the worst of the disappointment.

Yeah, this is what I usually do with pretty much anything. I'm super hyped for SSB4, but even if the only character I want in's chances are high, that being Ridley, there's always a chance he won't make it in. I see a lot of people talking about when he'll be announced, my question is if he'll be announced as a playable character at all. I guess I'm still recovering from the Brawl boss flop.

I only expect one new third party at max, with Mega Man having the highest chances for many reasons. I'll be surprised if we get two, and if we get two it'll only be because of Namco Bandai. I don't really see many Namco Bandai characters having a lot of potential for a moveset or to fit in though.

 

[Dark Phazon]

Couldnt think of a 3rd party that would fit Smash more than Megaman aint gonna lie about that one.

 

[Bajef8]

I mean if you're trying to tell me that the show/movies play a smaller part in their selections, answer me this. What do they sound like in Smash? Do they make their Pokedex cry or do they sound like the anime counterparts? Heck, even Trainer sounds like Ash.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I mean if you're trying to tell me that the show/movies play a smaller part in their selections, answer me this. What do they sound like in Smash? Do they make their Pokedex cry or do they sound like the anime counterparts? Heck, even Trainer sounds like Ash.

And you've unleash a can of worms or... are there any worm pokemon?

 

[Sharkarat]

I mean if you're trying to tell me that the show/movies play a smaller part in their selections, answer me this. What do they sound like in Smash? Do they make their Pokedex cry or do they sound like the anime counterparts? Heck, even Trainer sounds like Ash.

how they are selected. =/= how they are depicted.
it's likely that they sound like the anime version because it sound more interesting than the pokedex cry.

 

[FlareHabanero]

are there any worm pokemon?

At least, it's the closest thing to a worm considering it's called the Worm Pokemon.

 

[Bajef8]

how they are selected. =/= how they are depicted.
it's likely that they sound like the anime version because it sound more interesting than the pokedex cry.

I never said that at all. Pokemon get popular based off of more than being cool. Theres no personality to Pokemon at all in the games, but the shows and movie give them traits and characteristics, expanding them into actual characters. People love Mewtwo, for example, not just cuz hes a cool Pokemon, but also because of his movie portrayal, thus sky rocketing his appeal. Im trying to say that Smash bases its Poke-Reps based on the show and movies more than just their video game counterparts.

 

[Neanderthal]

I'm not saying that they would add more than every other "candidate". It was just a comparison to Pac-Man who really doesn't seem like he'd bring anything new and would likely be a mish-mash of playstyles that probably wouldn't work out. I could've used other characters like Little Mac or Takamaru as examples, but they were the ones that first came to mind.

But Habanero definitely explains the other half well. You've got a Greek-esque goddess and a girl Fire Emblem character with KATANAS (or at least how casuals will see them).

Pac is exactly the kind of character that would attract a different group of people to play the game.
A couple years ago he had greater brand awareness than Mario himself.
Very uniquely popular with the older generation and casual gamers.

 

[Neanderthal]

At least, it's the closest thing to a worm considering it's called the Worm Pokemon.

You're a worm pokemon.

 

[Deleted member]

Pac is exactly the kind of character that would attract a different group of people to play the game.
A couple years ago he had greater brand awareness than Mario himself.
Very uniquely popular with the older generation and casual gamers.

I really doubt that any potential newcomers will bring in a significant amount of people to the game. The days of any individual newcomers making a big difference in sales is over.

Also being well known =/= people caring about the character.

 

[Dark Phazon]

I really doubt that any potential newcomers will bring in a significant amount of people to the game. The days of any individual newcomers making a big difference in sales is over.

Also being well known =/= people caring about the character.

I disagree...although it might not have as big of a effect brawl had just trust me it will draw the Goose...Quack.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I think Mega Man will resonate more with the crowd that buys Smash games but doesn't know whether it's worth getting a WiiU for but Pac-Man will draw more public attention and if Sonic is in there too... I think I'm getting ahead of myself.

 

[Bajef8]

3rd parties baffle me...Im still saying Snake makes it because Sakurai wont wanna disappoint Kojima, but I think Sonic stands a chance of being cut for the Namco 3rd party

 

[Deleted member]

3rd parties baffle me...Im still saying Snake makes it because Sakurai wont wanna disappoint Kojima, but I think Sonic stands a chance of being cut for the Namco 3rd party

I doubt a third-party from another company would interfere with Sonic's return. If Sonic doesn't return, it won't be because Sakurai prefers a Namco rep.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

3rd parties baffle me...Im still saying Snake makes it because Sakurai wont wanna disappoint Kojima, but I think Sonic stands a chance of being cut for the Namco 3rd party

"The one whose Smash appearance has been most desired dashes in from far away at supersonic speed." - Dojo.

Sakurai would never cut Sonic, he knows how much fans want him, not even a Namco rep would be able to interfere with that.

 

[Dark Phazon]

"The one whose Smash appearance has been most desired dashes in from far away at supersonic speed." - Dojo.

Sakurai would never cut Sonic, he knows how much fans want him, not even a Namco rep would be able to interfere with that.

I agree but i hear where hes coming from...Sonic and Snake both seem given in different ways...

Sonic - How popular he is/was and SEGA partnership growing stronger with Nintendo.

Snake - Sakurai & Kojima? What ever his name is holding penises.

 

[SmashChu]

Well, let's discuss third party characters shall we.

I think Mega Man will resonate more with the crowd that buys Smash games but doesn't know whether it's worth getting a WiiU for but Pac-Man will draw more public attention and if Sonic is in there too... I think I'm getting ahead of myself.

Pac-Man isn't cool anymore. Namco tried to hard to make him like a Macsot like Sonic or Mario and has alienated people who enjoyed the originals. The games are no where near as successful. I don't think the new redesign has been doing well at all.

I doubt a third-party from another company would interfere with Sonic's return. If Sonic doesn't return, it won't be because Sakurai prefers a Namco rep.

You have to remember that Third party characters are not a normal part of the game. This is a Nintendo fighting game and Sakurai has defined it as such. He is VERY conservative with third party characters in general and wants them to be minor additions. This is all assuming he'll do them again. Sonic is also stale at this point. Basically, you have to look at third party characters with a critical eye. This is why I say Megaman might not get in despite being one of the most popular characters around.

In other news, I will post the roster this weekend. It's been delayed because of life. I'm glad you all have liked it so far.

 

[Neanderthal]

Pac-Man isn't cool anymore. Namco tried to hard to make him like a Macsot like Sonic or Mario and has alienated people who enjoyed the originals. The games are no where near as successful. I don't think the new redesign has been doing well at all.

Exactly why Namco will push for him to be in SSB4.

 

[SmashChu]

Exactly why Namco will push for him to be in SSB4.

Namco has no say in this game. This is why the Tales producer was asking fans to ask Sakurai to include a Tales character. The reason he is uncool is a big reason he wont be in.

Namco characters will likely not get in. You can't apply the same rules to Nintendo characters as third party characters. Namco characters make sense only when you apply the incorrect context. Third party characters have to meet a higher standard and have little to do with Nintendo's operations. So Namco developing the game has little bearing on it.

 

[AnOkayDM]

You have to remember that Third party characters are not a normal part of the game. This is a Nintendo fighting game and Sakurai has defined it as such. He is VERY conservative with third party characters in general and wants them to be minor additions. This is all assuming he'll do them again. Sonic is also stale at this point. Basically, you have to look at third party characters with a critical eye. This is why I say Megaman might not get in despite being one of the most popular characters around.

Sonic ain't stale. He'll be in Smash 4. Considering the Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games series is still going on, considering Nintendo and SEGA's newfound partnership, and considering the insane support he had for Brawl, I feel confident saying he'll return. They can also redesign Sonic's moveset into a less rushed affair. I think Snake'll be back too, since Kojima will surely want him to return.

As for Mega Man, if any new third-party characters are added, even if only one third-party character is added, he'll be in.

 

[Neanderthal]

Namco has no say in this game. This is why the Tales producer was asking fans to ask Sakurai to include a Tales character. The reason he is uncool is a big reason he wont be in.

I wasn't aware that you had inside information on what kind of input Namco has into the game?

Sakurai has the final say, but ofcourse their co-developers input is welcome.
If all Sakurai wanted was extra labor to help on the game then he could have hired a bunch of contract workers at infinitesimally cheaper rates than partnering with the experienced Namco!

If a Tales producer really said this then It would make alot more sense that they were trying to counterbalance the fact that there are more popular and more demanded Namco characters who are more likely to get in as the Namco rep.
The fact that he even thinks a Tales character would have a chance if it had the support shows how likely he thinks a Namco character is.

Namco characters will likely not get in. You can't apply the same rules to Nintendo characters as third party characters. Namco characters make sense only when you apply the incorrect context. Third party characters have to meet a higher standard and have little to do with Nintendo's operations. So Namco developing the game has little bearing on it

Except that Namco characters aren't technically third party characters.
The definition of a third party character is a character who is not owned by the developers of a given game.
Namco are co-developers of the game.

 

[Deleted member]

You have to remember that Third party characters are not a normal part of the game. This is a Nintendo fighting game and Sakurai has defined it as such. He is VERY conservative with third party characters in general and wants them to be minor additions. This is all assuming he'll do them again. Sonic is also stale at this point. Basically, you have to look at third party characters with a critical eye. This is why I say Megaman might not get in despite being one of the most popular characters around.

I won't pretend that I expect Sonic/Snake/Mega Man in the next game or even consider them likely. Like you, I also view third-parties with a very critical eye (which is why I doubt a Namco rep), but I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility for us to see Sonic and Mega Man in the game.

I was going to save this until your roster analysis was put up, but I feel it's worth mentioning now:

Now, there are two more characters I didn't mention: Sonic and Snake. This is the first game in the series to add characters from outside Nintendo. The thing to remember is Sakurai had put limits on these characters. He would only accept 2 or 3 characters, he would only let in characters who have been on a Nintendo console and they had to originate from a video game. That is a lot of limitations. In the end, Sakurai only took 2 despite everyone else thought he'd take more. The thing to note is that Sakurai is not keep on adding third parties and only does it in specific circumstances. The context of the series is “Nintendo,” so this has to be considered, Sonic was added for being the most requested character overall. But even he got in rather late. Sakurai said he made the entire roster early on (2005/2006 depending on your source) and Sonic in 2007. This means he wasn't a must have in Sakurai's eyes. Snake was special and, from the looks of it, was always meant to be the one third party character in the game. They put a lot more effort into his content and he was in right from the start. He even had a role in the Subspace Emissary. He was added out of a request from Kojima that was even back during Melee. Brawl was when they got around to adding the guest, which opened a lot of doors.

Let's go with July, 2005 for when the roster was decided for this one.

The one thing to remember with Sonic here was that he only became the most wanted character after E3 2006. Before then, most people didn't even consider third-parties a possibility and people would throw bricks at you for suggesting it. Before E3 2006, Sonic was definitely not the most wanted character for the next game; heck he wasn't even in the Top 10. Of course Sakurai wasn't going to bother with him at the time.

Snake changed the scene in a big way. With his inclusion, the doors for more guests were opened. Many were requested, but it was Sonic that came out on top. Sonic's was so heavily demanded that Sakurai saw the need to go to Sega to get Sonic in the next Smash. The fact that he came in so late explains why he didn't get nearly as much contents as Snake did and why Sonic had a lackluster move set. There wasn't much time to flesh out Sonic. Chances are that had he had been among the Top 3 most wanted characters before the roster got decided (and I would guarantee you even had he been by far the most wanted character back then), Sonic would have not only been in along with Snake, but also received a much better treatment along with a more fleshed out move set.

With Sonic added so late, there is clearly room to make him fresh a second time if he returns since he would be planned from the start. First thing they can do is fix up the move set. Make it more exciting and make his move sets integrate better n the game. Part of the reason why Sonic was so hard to fit in (aside from the nature of third-parties) was because he was planned so late; otherwise he would have had an easier time fitting in than Snake. But not just that, they can also significantly improve on the quality and quantity of the Sonic contents in Smash 4. Notice how Sonic had very little remixes (Angel Island Zone was already done) in the game. Clearly Sakurai did not have time to do much because of the time constraints. If Sonic returns, remixes of themes can be made because they would have more time to plan out his inclusion. They could also use this opportunity to add a stage from his post-Brawl days. In other words, a lot can be done to make Sonic's re-inclusion worth it.

Not sure if the same can be said for Snake, though, considering how much effort was put into Snake's inclusion. Pretty much why I've been considering axing Snake (as much as I don't want him to go).

 

[AnOkayDM]

Except that Namco characters aren't technically third party characters.
The definition of a third party character is a character who is not owned by the developers of a given game.
Namco are co-developers of the game.

I mostly agree with your post, but this is stretching it a little. "Third-party" in reference to Smash Bros. means non-Nintendo characters; just because Namco is helping develop this game, it doesn't mean they get any rights to any Nintendo characters, nor does Nintendo own theirs. Therefore, Namco characters, for all intents and purposes, are third-party.

 

[Neanderthal]

I mostly agree with your post, but this is stretching it a little. "Third-party" in reference to Smash Bros. means non-Nintendo characters; just because Namco is helping develop this game, it doesn't mean they get any rights to any Nintendo characters, nor does Nintendo own theirs. Therefore, Namco characters, for all intents and purposes, are third-party.

I think you missed the point a bit there. Ofcourse Nintendo don't own Namco characters just because they worked with them.
But for the purposes for Super Smash Brothers 4 Namco characters do not technically fit the definition of third party.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I think you missed the point a bit there. Ofcourse Nintendo don't own Namco characters just because they worked with them.
But for the purposes for Super Smash Brothers 4 Namco characters do not technically fit the definition of third party.

Yes.
They do.

Third-party for Smash Bros. means not Nintendo. Smash Bros. 5 could be made by six different companies and each of those would still be third-party. When Capcom made Oracle of Seasons/Ages and Minish Cap, they were still a third-party company, releasing on a first-party system.

Any company not Nintendo or owned by Nintendo will be considered third-party for the purposes of Smash 4, regardless of who made it. Namco isn't going to get special treatment because they worked on the game; that's not how Sakurai thinks about characters. A character will only get in on his or her own merit, period.