While this whole situation reminds me of ESRB, especially with the way go but, but, but in certain situations (I know because I was one of them lol), this leak also doesn't have any video. That would do a lot of good in my opinion, even like the original SnapChat video (Which I know is impossible). Until then, it's going to be way too difficult for me to believe The Grinch.
Sakurai says don't expect too many newcomers, that they might have been trigger happy with reveals, and that there were only a few reveals left during the last Smash Direct. You can throw a ton of evidence at me that Sakurai is coy and does things however he wants, but those comments always felt like such definitive hype resistors to me. To keep expressly this sort of hype train from plowing straight into the reality of the game. As it stands, I expect four of these characters to be likely. Two unique newcomers and the two obvious Echo fighters we have. Is three more unique fighters all that big of a deal in that context? Seemingly no, but with this game I would most certainly lean towards, yes that's a big deal.
I think there's a lot of effort gone into this leak. A lot more than anything we've seen before if this is indeed fake, which would usually indicate a positive situation for the leak. But the shadows especially feels like the Wario/Mr. Game and Watch portrait fame complaints from ESRB for example, and we've gotten confirmations on this guy being an actual human being. But what's to say the fake leaker didn't happen to know the real dude, and then just proceed to use his identity for the purpose of his fake leak. I know that's reaching, but it'd be a good way for everything to line up information wise, but the leak then be disproved.
WIth Sakurai trying to control hype and making his various comments, I just can't believe this leak, even if I really, really, really want to. Sakurai seemed very clear in everything else about this sort of thing... So why would he just completely break all of that in the last hour. He's the one I believe, not Verge or supposed insiders, Sakurai is the one who I'll choose to listen to.
So I'm going towards Team Fake regardless of how much my heart wants to believe this one and how much decent evidence there seems to be for this one.