Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Deleted member]

Half of the "ballot winners" from this "leak" were already assist trophies or bosses.
Of course I may be overestimating people, but why would people vote for characters who already are in the game?

The belief that if they get enough votes, Sakurai would just make them playable anyway.

 

[Zerp]

Wasn't it stated in the direct that Bayo was number 1 in Europe and Top 5 in the US?

It was stated she was number in Europe and top five in the USA "among realizable characters*" which could really mean anything, she could have gotten say, 20th place overall but everyone above her in Europe and the US was marked as "unrealizable" and they didn't count because of it.

 

[StormC]

In my opinion, the ballot is not necessarily a numbers game. Characters who crossed a certain threshhold were probably put on a shortlist and then had their pros and cons weighed. I don't think Sakurai saw Goku at the top, rejected him, saw Banjo next, decided working with Microsoft was too much of a pain in the arse, saw K. Rool, decided he was too irrelevant, then saw Ridley and went with him. Characters would be evaluated on their own merits.

 

[Deleted member]

It was stated she was number in Europe and top five in the USA "among realizable characters*" which could really mean anything, she could have gotten say, 20th place overall but everyone above her in Europe was marked as "unrealizable".

No, the Top 5 in the US and the #1 in Europe didn't have the "among realizable characters" disclaimer.
Just the "overall #1 worldwide" part.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Wasn't it stated in the direct that Bayo was number 1 in Europe and Top 5 in the US?

It does say they filtered out everyone confirmed for ultimate... and then left Ridley in there? Yeah, I'm confused too.

 

[Taco Cruise]

The leaker is still replying BTW - and said that Bayonetta was 8th overall

 

[Dracyoshi]

I wish they'd mention new character balance changes or just general changes when posting about a character on the blog.
Not just link to the character trailers.
It'd give us something new to talk about.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Ok...as much as I would be hyped to see the Kickin' Chicken have so much support, I literally cannot believe for a second that Blaziken scored that high when people were jumping the Sceptile bandwagon hard to complete the Starter set.

I wouldn't believe any newcomer pokemon sniffed the top 10 on the Ballot except for maybe Sceptile; there's faaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrr too many non plot-centric popular pokemon that would make good and unique Smash characters, leaving Smash support way too spread out for any to get a significant Smash push except for Sceptile who had people rallying behind him because of "we need a grass starter!".

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

This guy's trying so hard. Can we give him points for effort?

Spoiler: "Leak"

Erroneous information - total votes received was 46M according to my data (in response to only 1.8 million votes being recieved)

Spongebob, Harambe, Goku, Shrek, Captain Crunch, Mickey Mouse, Battletoads, Obama, Captain Planet were all excluded immediately regardless of vote count

I won't repeat myself again, but yes it was possible. We just captured all votes in a campaign that filled into our company's database, and just did a raw export of the list. These are the numbers I sent over, I am confident that each vote was recorded, but it is possible bots played a role in Lip's high vote count. We sent the data over regardless and did not flag it as suspicious - we are not paid enough to care that much about one video game when we run marketing campaigns for many companies and games.

I have recorded entries past that date - our campaign didn't formally have an end date until December 2015 in our system, so I'll pull a report that shows who may have been entered past then. I just pulled the report from our database so I'll see whats going on - give me 5 to 10 minutes to parce through the data. Be right back

Ok, after looking at the information, there are recorded entries as late as two weeks ago, all with an email name of "test" - All of Harambe, and most of Captain Crunch and Peppa Pig's entires are tests that were input between 2017 and 2018. There are no entries for actual characters, just obvious jokes.

This tells me two things - 1. Our database system is still being tested ballot-wise
2. That likely means there will be another ballot and someone has been testing to ensure it will work in the future.

What we had sent was a static report as of December 2015, my current report (and what currently exists in our database) cannot be what was sent in Dec 2015 as it did not exist in the same capacity.

An index match of a report pulled as of Dec 2015 compared to today shows no irregularities besides the test entries

I hope everyone is ready for another ballot, which may mean more DLC or even a new game down the road!

The actual ballot can be taken down, but much like a web form for any marketing campaign, it can still be accessed internally. This is done for a variety of reason, mostly testing.

 

[Deleted member]

So folks...

Here's a question.

Does this question change how you feel about Bayonetta in Smash?

Not really. There's nothing we can do about it other than speculate what this could mean for the remaining newcomers.

Hold up.

Geno? Super Mario RPG wasn't sold in Europe until a few years ago on the Nintendo E-Shop. So the casual European player is unlikely to want him unless they specifically frequent places that talk about him.

Super Mario RPG released in 2008 on the Wii Virtual Console so it's been out there for a long time.

Y'know, this ballot thing wouldn't be the first time Nintendo pulled a PR move in their favor with Smash.

It also help that Ultimate is a thing and that the information did not become widely known until yesterday. There are a lot of implications from this worth combing over and what this could mean.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So let's see what we can say for each character mentioned here, if this is legit.

Top 5 NA
Ridley
K. Rool
Geno
Waluigi
Sora

Top 5 EU
Banjo-Kazooie
King K. Rool
Bomberman
Blaziken
Ridley

Top 5 JPN
Ashley
Lip
Sora
Saki
Takamaru

Ridley: In.
K. Rool: Not Yet Seen
Geno: Not Yet Seen
Waluigi: Consolation Assist Trophy
Sora: 3rd party, not yet seen or shot down

Banjo-Kazooie: 3rd party, not yet seen or shot down
Bomber-Man: 3rd Party, Assist Trophy
Blaziken: Not yet seen, not expected at all.

Ashley: Not Yet Seen
Lip: Not yet seen, stick MIA too
Saki: Not yet seen
Takamaru: Assist trophy.

So that's a potential pool of 5 Nintendo characters, 2 3rd party characters and a Geno.

Guess Blaziken shouldn't be too surprising, it was shown off next to Lucario in Pokken's intial teaser. Now let's watch it's support thread catch alight.

 

[Icedragonadam]

I think the later DLC Mii Costumes = ballot consolation prizes hold even more weight IMO with this new info about Bayonetta and the Ballot. Also I love how the fake rumor makers went from piggybacking the same pool of characters to piggybacking the Ballot datamine now.

 

[cmbsfm]

I feel like Ridley didn’t place that high on the ballot because his presence as a Stage Hazard discouraged people from voting for him. Was there a big push for him despite this?

 

[StormC]

I feel like Ridley didn’t place that high on the ballot because his presence as a Stage Hazard discouraged people from voting for him. Was there a big push for him despite this?

Ridley diehards assembled for sure but I think fairweather fans were turned off/discouraged. He wasn't a major presence in exit polls because almost everyone was thinking about it as DLC. I'm sure he did pretty well (top 15ish), and probably well enough in addition to other forms of social media to let Sakurai know how unhappy they were.

 

[Idon]

I feel like Ridley didn’t place that high on the ballot because his presence as a Stage Hazard discouraged people from voting for him. Was there a big push for him despite this?

There probably was some, but less so had ATs and Stage Hazards didn't nuke the chances they would ever get in as Smash 4 DLC.

 

[meowth_thats_wrong]

I don't think any real leaker has felt the need to justify their credibility with paragraphs upon paragraphs of background context, lol. Past Smash leakers were usually vague due to legal liability - this one reads like he's making it up as he goes along.

 

[Makai Wars]

I feel like Ridley didn’t place that high on the ballot because his presence as a Stage Hazard discouraged people from voting for him. Was there a big push for him despite this?

The ballot was not the be all end all measure for determining a character's popularity, it's not like Nintendo hadn't been keeping track of what people have wanted before the Ballot, Ridely has been one of the highest requested characters for over a decade now.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

I feel like Ridley didn’t place that high on the ballot because his presence as a Stage Hazard discouraged people from voting for him. Was there a big push for him despite this?

The Ballot being advertised as for Smash 4 DLC and it coming fresh off of Sakurai's infamous statement about Ridley would have certainly suppressed Ridley's Ballot performance; it was a common sentiment that voting for Ridley was a waste, and while some Ridley fans like myself still put a vote in for him, many others didn't bother. You can observe this in all the fan polls where Ridley was at the bottom of a top 10 if he was there at all.

However Ridley's popularity was already acknowledged by that point, so fortunately the Ballot didn't matter for Ridley's chances as he was known to be a very popular request and his chances just hinged on Sakurai changing his mind (which happily he did).

 

[cmbsfm]

The ballot was not the be all end all measure for determining a character's popularity, it's not like Nintendo hadn't been keeping track of what people have wanted before the Ballot, Ridely has been one of the highest requested characters for over a decade now.

Yeah I know that, you don’t really need to consult the ballot to know Ridley is popular. It’s just that I see people suggest he was a ballot choice, and I don’t know how that’d be the case if the Stage Hazard scared people off from voting for him.

 

[vaanrose]

Half of the "ballot winners" from this "leak" were already assist trophies or bosses.
Of course I may be overestimating people, but why would people vote for characters who already are in the game?

So, actually, I have thoughts on this.

Most people don't feel super passionately about any one character. Fewer people still actually have that big a working knowledge of Nintendo's catalog of characters. Especially kids.

But what characters will these people know about? The ones that already have roles in the game.

Just think back to all the Brawl fan rosters. 90% of them were all based on whichever characters got trophies in Melee. People are STILL talking about Ayumi Tachibana to this day.

Don't underestimate the effect having an existing role in the game probably had on the ballot.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Yeah I know that, you don’t really need to consult the ballot to know Ridley is popular. It’s just that I see people suggest he was a ballot choice, and I don’t know how that’d be the case if the Stage Hazard scared people off from voting for him.

I really wish you were around on the forums late 2007 to early 2008. Boy golly would this post change a lot.

Ridley fans were absurd lol.

 

[StormC]

I don't know if it's as simple as a character being picked as a "ballot choice."

Ridley could have done well on the ballot but also has the precedent of being highly requested since pre-Brawl.
Bandana Dee could have done well on the ballot but is also a promotional character who neatly advertises the new Kirby games.

Characters like K. Rool and Isaac are probably closer to someone being picked mostly (if not entirely) because of the ballot.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Ballot talk still going...won’t be let go of

 

[SlickWylde]

So he works for the company that helped with the ballot, and is also a Smash Fan? Seems convenient (He shows inside knowledge so obviously he's at least somewhat of a fan)... Also, he's risking his job by giving this information and also staying around to make sure his leak sound legitimate?

The answer to both of those questions is "No".

 

[Zerp]

Ballot talk still going...won’t be let go of

Just wait until the second ballot when Travis Touchdown wins and Suda51 is swearing that it wasn't rigged and it wasn't because he begged Sakurai to be in the game. That's the fun one.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I don't know if it's as simple as a character being picked as a "ballot choice."

Ridley could have done well on the ballot but also has the precedent of being highly requested since pre-Brawl.
Bandana Dee could have done well on the ballot but is also a promotional character who neatly advertises the new Kirby games.

Characters like K. Rool and Isaac are probably closer to someone being picked mostly (if not entirely) because of the ballot.

also nintendo has a lot of data on what's popular and what isn't. They know people like K. Rool and Camelot characters (Isaac etc) as a whole

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

So he works for the company that helped with the ballot, and is also a Smash Fan? Seems convenient (He shows inside knowledge so obviously he's at least somewhat of a fan)... Also, he's risking his job by giving this information and also staying around to make sure his leak sound legitimate?

The answer to both of those questions is "No".

It's better than this one. Says every stage except redundant ones (and Pyrosphere) aren't returning, and people are actually humoring it. Not even logging this one.

 

[UltimateWario]

It's better than this one. Says every stage except redundant ones (and Pyrosphere) aren't returning, and people are actually humoring it. Not even logging this one.

I don't know, that art is pretty convincing. Looks official.

 

[Untouch]

Also interesting is how this company serves rareware (isn't even called rareware anymore and hasn't been for a while), yet doesn't serve microsoft.

 

[DLEAF]

Ballot talk still going...won’t be let go of

At least we're not arguing over whether it's a port or not.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

If this leak is true and anything like Rex or Spring Man is left for DLC, here's what my prediction roster looks like.

6 brand new comers in Inkling, Ridely, King K. Rool, Ashley, Simon & Geno

3-4 Echos, all for series without one already (Zelda, Pokemon ect.)

Not a bad set of new characters all things considered.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Just wait until the second ballot when Travis Touchdown wins and Suda51 is swearing that it wasn't rigged and it wasn't because he begged Sakurai to be in the game. That's the fun one.

I don’t know who the latter is, but as long as the chaos is good...I accept

At least we're not arguing over whether it's a port or not.

not here...but anywhere else that’s still an argument

 

[Thirdkoopa]

It's better than this one. Says every stage except redundant ones (and Pyrosphere) aren't returning, and people are actually humoring it. Not even logging this one.

my favorite part is master hand as a character.

 

[N3ON]

This guy's trying so hard. Can we give him points for effort?

Spoiler: "Leak"

Erroneous information - total votes received was 46M according to my data (in response to only 1.8 million votes being recieved)

Spongebob, Harambe, Goku, Shrek, Captain Crunch, Mickey Mouse, Battletoads, Obama, Captain Planet were all excluded immediately regardless of vote count

I won't repeat myself again, but yes it was possible. We just captured all votes in a campaign that filled into our company's database, and just did a raw export of the list. These are the numbers I sent over, I am confident that each vote was recorded, but it is possible bots played a role in Lip's high vote count. We sent the data over regardless and did not flag it as suspicious - we are not paid enough to care that much about one video game when we run marketing campaigns for many companies and games.

I have recorded entries past that date - our campaign didn't formally have an end date until December 2015 in our system, so I'll pull a report that shows who may have been entered past then. I just pulled the report from our database so I'll see whats going on - give me 5 to 10 minutes to parce through the data. Be right back

Ok, after looking at the information, there are recorded entries as late as two weeks ago, all with an email name of "test" - All of Harambe, and most of Captain Crunch and Peppa Pig's entires are tests that were input between 2017 and 2018. There are no entries for actual characters, just obvious jokes.

This tells me two things - 1. Our database system is still being tested ballot-wise
2. That likely means there will be another ballot and someone has been testing to ensure it will work in the future.

What we had sent was a static report as of December 2015, my current report (and what currently exists in our database) cannot be what was sent in Dec 2015 as it did not exist in the same capacity.

An index match of a report pulled as of Dec 2015 compared to today shows no irregularities besides the test entries

I hope everyone is ready for another ballot, which may mean more DLC or even a new game down the road!

The actual ballot can be taken down, but much like a web form for any marketing campaign, it can still be accessed internally. This is done for a variety of reason, mostly testing.

"Nintendo said there were only 1.8 million votes"
"Yeah but they're wrong, there were 46 million"

I like this guy.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So, actually, I have thoughts on this.

Most people don't feel super passionately about any one character. Fewer people still actually have that big a working knowledge of Nintendo's catalog of characters. Especially kids.

But what characters will these people know about? The ones that already have roles in the game.

Just think back to all the Brawl fan rosters. 90% of them were all based on whichever characters got trophies in Melee. People are STILL talking about Ayumi Tachibana to this day.

Don't underestimate the effect having an existing role in the game probably had on the ballot.

Maybe that's why the Smash 4 scene wasn't quite as mad. Brawl's trophy selection was limited to easily rippable models from recent games instead of making their own.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Knew I was right not to log it.

Spoiler: From the "leaker"

THIS IZ FAKE-/r/r/r/r/r/r/r rhythm heave

 

[meowth_thats_wrong]

So, actually, I have thoughts on this.

Most people don't feel super passionately about any one character. Fewer people still actually have that big a working knowledge of Nintendo's catalog of characters. Especially kids.

But what characters will these people know about? The ones that already have roles in the game.

Just think back to all the Brawl fan rosters. 90% of them were all based on whichever characters got trophies in Melee. People are STILL talking about Ayumi Tachibana to this day.

Don't underestimate the effect having an existing role in the game probably had on the ballot.

On the other hand, as a kid I had no idea who most of the trophy assists were. They go unnamed unless you make the effort to look up who they are. I think kids are more likely to put in characters from games they've played outside of Smash, like Daisy and Waluigi. Assist trophies are probably too obscure to the average player unless they've played their games.

 

[N3ON]

So, actually, I have thoughts on this.

Most people don't feel super passionately about any one character. Fewer people still actually have that big a working knowledge of Nintendo's catalog of characters. Especially kids.

But what characters will these people know about? The ones that already have roles in the game.

Just think back to all the Brawl fan rosters. 90% of them were all based on whichever characters got trophies in Melee. People are STILL talking about Ayumi Tachibana to this day.

Don't underestimate the effect having an existing role in the game probably had on the ballot.

Any day now for my boy Maruo Maruhige. Any day.

 

[ned_ballad]

my favorite part is master hand as a character.

While the "leak" (lol) is super fake, the idea of Master Hand being playable I don't think is too much outside the realm of things that could happen

 

[Kamikazek]

At least we're not arguing over whether it's a port or not.

New datamining techniques reveal that "//lol Smash Ultimate is a port lol" was written in the temp files that would eventually become Bayonetta.