EDIT:
prediction - Aug 7, 2014
We're close to the release of the 3DS version of the game, so there aren't many newcomers left, but I want to put my prediction here anyway.
Veterans that will return:
Game & Watch
Ness
MetaKnight
Ganondorf
Wario
ROB
Wolf
Ice Climbers (Sakurai managed to make them working, simplifying Nana's AI)
Jigglypuff
Falco
Lucas
Mewtwo (will return with a modified moveset)
Clones will be back because Sakurai don't want to delude the fans of those characters, and at the same time, he won't modify the moveset too much because don't want they feel like new characters moveset-wise, they will feel familiar for the ones who mained them in the past.
Newcomers:
1 newcomer for each one of these franchises:
Kirby
Starfox
Zelda
Metroid
Earthbound
DK
+
new franchise
+
obscure franchise
Sakurai wants to please the fans of all the franchises by giving them at least 1 new rep, except for Pikmin and F-Zero.
Kirby:
Depends on how he will choice the characters.
-By relevance:
nobody, as all the most important character of the series are already in
-By relevance, considering some characters who appeared less often as well:
Adeleine
-By popularity:
Bandana Dee
-By his decision:
Chef Kawasaki or Marx (his creations, pretty recurring also)
The fight is hard between nobody, Bandana Dee and Adeleine to me, but I can also easily see him going mad and add Chef Kawasaki.
I'd say
Adeleine, but it's very unpredictable, since people are convinced that Bandana Dee is surely in but I think his chances are a lot lower than what people think... I'm considering the fact that he may be in as Kirby's alternate skin, just like Galacta Knight over MetaKnight.
I see the bandana just as an indicator for the player that that generic waddle dee is an helper and won't hurt you, more than an element that differentiates the character from a generic mob, and I think Sakurai would think the same (he created the "character" in Kirby Superstar, and it wasn't really a character at the times, it was just a Waddle Dee with a minigame themed costume, like the japanese themed costumes in Samurai Kirby).
I know Adeleine is a bit unlikely, but I think this will be a sort of surprise character, unexpected by most.
Starfox:
Krystal. Heavily requested, original gameplay, not clone, the staff can be used as a spear and has special powers as well.
Zelda:
Really, it's hard to predict here. The most logical prediction would be Ganon, since he's very important to the series and he isn't represented yet (outside from the final smash of Ganondorf), but I think, for some reason, that Sakurai won't choice him. It's very possible that
Tetra will be chosen because she represents the Toon counterpart of Zelda, and she's also a female character.
Since transforming characters aren't allowed in this Smash, Toon Zelda will not be part of the character and won't be in the game at all (or maybe, just as Tetra's final smash).
Metroid:
Ridley is a stage hazard. Ridley is the most important character apart of Samus, but he's not in. Anyway, a character needs to be added, and Sakurai will choice him from the last Metroid game. Even if Adam is more important and has a "role" in other Metroid games as well, he's a mysterious character, his presence is so inconsistent (purposely), as most of the time he is not present and he is only heard from radio conversations. I think that "not being present" is part of the character, and because of this, he won't be chosen. Sakurai will choice
Anthony, and he will use the freezing beam, with plasma beam as final smash.
Anthony will represent the galactic federation. Sylux was the second option but was rejected, because he was planned to appear more (the cliffhanger at the end of Metroid Prime 3) but the project was never realized.
He will be the new Sheik (minor character who becomes recurring in Smash).
Earthbound:
Easy choice.
Porky, who already appeared as boss in Brawl, this time will be upgraded as playable.
DK:
The fight is between Dixie and King K Rool. DK is a growing franchise, getting more and more sequels. Both
King K Rool and
Dixie Kong will be added, but Dixie is the one who has more priority.
New Franchise:
The new franchise will be
Rhythm Heaven. This is also an hard choice, but at the end, the one who will be chosen is the one that's easier to adapt as a fighter in Smash, and has also appeared in each game of the trilogy:
Karate Joe. This franchise, despite being released worldwide starting with the DS title, will be treated as a japanese franchise, kinda like Fire Emblem in Melee, and Sakurai will take most of the elements from the first game on GBA.
Obscure Franchise:
Two possible choice are avaliable, but due to the fact that Lip's Stick is an item (Lip from Panel de Pon), I'm going to say that
Jill & Drill Dozer will be the next obscure character revived in Smash Bros. She was already an assist trophy back in Brawl, and she will be the second assist trophy transformed into playable, like Little Mac.
No retro characters this time, as most of them are represented as assist trophies; Pac-Man is the retro character of this generation.
______________________________
Final list of newcomers:
Adeleine
Krystal
Tetra
Anthony
Porky
King K Rool
Dixie Kong
Karate Joe
Jill & Drill Dozer
36 characters announced + 12 veterans + 9 newcomers = 57 characters. A pretty large roster this time!
There is still room for 2 character, since I think that the final roster will have 59 characters + random icon.
12 x 5 grid
one of them will be
Tabuu from Brawl. The first Smash specific character in the story of the series.
the second one could be either
Paula or the Masked Man from
Earthbound depending on if it's more important adding female characters or villains for Sakurai. Since I need to predict the exact roster, I'll say Paula has more chances as Porky already represents the villain character of Earthbound.
EDIT:
prediction
1)
Today there was a big leak, with gameplay videos and all. The leak look legit, and it's most likely true.
But I want do another prediction; after all, even if it turns out to be wrong, I won't lose anything XD
The roster is the same that I already posted, with some cuts/changes.
No Tabuu
No Paula
No Jill
Falco is cut
Lucas is cut
or
no Tetra, no Anthony (Zero Suit Samus and Sheik considered as "newcomers" of the series)
Falco and Lucas not cut (I think this one is more likely).
54 characters total.
The leak is an awesome fake, made by some talented people with video editing and 3D modeling skills, who wanted to troll us through 4chan (not like it's the first time something like this happens on those boards).
Also, the leak uses a 6 x 9 grid (54 icons), and 54 can't be divided by 4 or 5, and you can't simply have 3 rows of 18 icons on screen in the WiiU version.
Reason why I modified the prediction: because there were too many characters. 54 are more likely.
2)
Another possibility, is the old roster (59 characters + random) with Isaac replacing Tabuu (Tabuu is still a secret boss in the game, like Crazy Hand).
60 is a good amount of icons for the grid, since you can do it 12 x 5 or switch it to 10 x 6 on the 3DS screen.
The funny thing is that 60 is more problematic for the WiiU version, since the 4 player slots are very big (at least in the E3 demo), and in order to make 60 icons fit in the space where they should be, you must shrink them so much that they hare hard to see (well, you can see them fine on an HD screen, but it's still awkward). Unless the demo screen is not final.
Yeah, F-Zero GX had a 11 x 5 grid (the last row had just 5 cars because of the gui, and the lateral columns were for the custom cars loaded from the memory cards) and it was on a not-HD/not-16:9 screen, it was perfectly clear (but on the other hand, there were no names under the car icons), so I think that on a WiiU (that forces 16:9 even on 4:3 monitors) it would be easy to add just a single column. The only problems are the names.
WiiU)
3DS)
I keep the 2) as main prediction, because the thing about switching the grid looks interesting.
The only character about who I'm not too sure is Paula... there are many character on a similar level of chances from the Mother series, it's hard to choice... Prince Poo also looks interesting.
In the worst scenario, the full roster has just 47+random characters, since 48 is the only possible number that can be switched in the 2 versions of the game (12 x 4 on WiiU, 8 x 6 on 3DS) other than 60.
In that case, we're just getting 2/3 newcomers and they're replacing some veterans. Just no -.-
EDIT:
new prediction
With today's potd, Sakurai confirmed that the leak is true.
At this point, I don't want to predict anymore.
It's clear that Sakurai choses the characters with a biased logic: he gives more importance to characters who he likes more than how much important those characters are; also, he seems to not be interested in pleasing the fans of all franchises.
Proofs are that he continues putting NES characters ignoring other equally or more imporant characters (classic Ganon is the worst offender), he added Dark Pit while Dark Samus is just an assist trophy, and he added lots of Fire Emblem characters despite one of them being a clone, after saying that he did a full playthrough of the most recent Fire Emblem game.
He is the director, and he can do what he want, but this way it's obvious that you won't please all of your fans, but just a small part of them.
Even the stage selection is unbalanced, as whe have 3 "mushroom kingdom" stages that are very similar, in the same version of the game. Everything is unbalanced.
So really, there is no point in predicting the roster anymore, especially after all those clone characters being confirmed.