Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Mr Stevenson for light gun rep.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Andy (Advance Wars) on the next Smash: Yay or Nay?

I'm voting Yay, but will be surprised if he doesn't make Smash 5.


How bout Mike Jones? I mean...that baseball bat

 

[Morbi]

I'm voting Yay, but will be surprised if he doesn't make Smash 5.


How bout Mike Jones? I mean...that baseball bat

I am also voting "yay," but only because he is reminiscent of Monkey D. Luffy and I want to prove that anime characters can make it in the game.

 

[N3ON]

OK here's a new topic, if you had to choose someone to represent the NES Zapper, who would you pick?
Duck Hunt Dog or Wild Gunman.

DHD. He's much more iconic and wouldn't be as limited as Wild Gunman.

not as a WTF character, but because I love the character and think he would be awesome to play as!

That is the only reason one should make a character thread... to be honest.

@ Robert of Normandy
Two videos and a quote? My goodness what substance.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Probably the notion that you aren't just making the thread... just to make it. It comes as a shock to us all.

Just to clarify, there are certain threads I have that I hold above all the others I make. These consist of:
*Reggie
*Masked Link
*Giygas
*Fawful (one the owner responds to my ownership request)
*Masked Dedede (which go merged)
*and Wart (when I make it later today).

 

[Robert of Normandy]

OK here's a new topic, if you had to choose someone to represent the NES Zapper, who would you pick?
Duck Hunt Dog or Wild Gunman.

Can I pick nobody? Just make the Zapper an item and call it a day.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

I'm voting Yay, but will be surprised if he doesn't make Smash 5.


How bout Mike Jones? I mean...that baseball bat

Nah man, the yo-yo's where it's at. Unfortunately Ness already already uses both these items, so you know what that means

Spoiler

Mike Jones as Ness replacement

 

[Morbi]

Just to clarify, there are certain threads I have that I hold above all the others I make. These consist of:
*Reggie
*Masked Link
*Giygas
*Fawful (one the owner responds to my ownership request)
*Masked Dedede (which go merged)
*and Wart (when I make it later today).

Is it odd that I actually already knew that?

 

[The Nerd]

I apologize, for I am not well-versed in the potential of Mach Rider. What does he offer that is enticing? I hear a lot of people talking about him.

He's only really got a chance at all because there was a rumour(?) that suggested he was considered in place of the IC's back in melee. He's been in one game for the NES, which was a launch title. The game was named after the protagonist, mach rider. The plot was that it was a post apocalyptic world that Mach Rider had to... save? Do things in? What you're doing is never really clear; you ride along highways, using your awesome bike to destroy all alien vehicles called quadrunners in your way. Along the way you need to avoid oil slicks, rocks, and running out of gas.

It sounds and looks oddly lame, but the idea of the character being revived is highly appealing to me and a character that was permanently mounted in a fighting game could be neat. There is definitely some untapped potential there, although it seems unlikely he will get in over Takamaru, the closest thing he has to direct competition.

 

[RouffWestie]

I'm posting a roster prediction now.

I organized it by Veterans and Newcomers.

 

[Morbi]

He's only really got a chance at all because there was a rumour(?) that suggested he was considered in place of the IC's back in melee. He's been in one game for the NES, which was a launch title. The game was named after the protagonist, mach rider. The plot was that it was a post apocalyptic world that Mach Rider had to... save? Do things in? What you're doing is never really clear; you ride along highways, using your awesome bike to destroy all alien vehicles called quadrunners in your way. Along the way you need to avoid oil slicks, rocks, and running out of gas.

It sounds and looks oddly lame, but the idea of the character being revived is highly appealing to me and a character that was permanently mounted in a fighting game could be neat. There is definitely some untapped potential there, although it seems unlikely he will get in over Takamaru, the closest thing he has to direct competition.

Thank you for the clarification. Everyone alludes to him and how he was once considered, but they never truly divulge in what he is all about. I always get him confused with Excitebiker for some reason.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Is it odd that I actually already knew that?

Not at all boy!

*smells oncoming retro discussion which means Lip vs. Takamaru debates*

 

[Louie G.]

I'm posting a roster prediction now.

I organized it by Veterans and Newcomers.

Not bad, but you should consider reorganizing.
Overall it's a good roster though.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I'm posting a roster prediction now.

I organized it by Veterans and Newcomers.

 

[The Nerd]

Thank you for the clarification. Everyone alludes to him and how he was once considered, but they never truly divulge in what he is all about. I always get him confused with Excitebiker for some reason.

I think the reason that people might not want to get into specifics is because when you uncatagorically state what he does and how he functions, it's hard to imagine him in a fighting game, especially smash bros. How can a bike jump? Assuming he spins out or wheelies for his strong or smash attacks, how do you handle his less intimidating attacks, like a jab? Imagining him is awkward so it seems unlikely, but as I said, I think there's plenty of potential for a unique and cool character. I have faith Sakurai could make it work if he wanted to.

Also, RouffWestie, you have 52 different movesets in there, which is a very tall order for a fighting game. I think that it's highly likely not all of those characters will be present, although it's possible the game's final roster is in that set.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

[quote="RouffWestie, post: 16227791, member: 224909"]I'm posting a roster prediction now.

I organized it by Veterans and Newcomers.

View attachment 6851[/quote]
Well, excuse me Princess!
Edit: This quote is messed up. :/

 

[N3ON]

Also, RouffWestie, you have 52 different movesets in there, which is a very tall order for a fighting game. I think that it's highly likely not all of those characters will be present, although it's possible the game's final roster is in that set.

Many rosters have a moveset count of around 52, with transformations included that's only 48 slots, which isn't overly extreme or anything. Sakurai himself said he would be capable of 50 characters.

 

[9Volt]

Sakurai himself said he would be capable of 50 characters.

Where?

 

[The Nerd]

Many rosters have a moveset count of around 52, with transformations included that's only 48 slots, which isn't overly extreme or anything. Sakurai himself said he would be capable of 50 characters.

When did he say that? Also, perhaps I am simply ignorant, but how have people decided that 48 isn't overly extreme? I had guesstimated around 40 movesets with approximately 45-50 characters.

 

[Morbi]

I'm posting a roster prediction now.

I organized it by Veterans and Newcomers.

Here are my thoughts, bear in mind that this is entirely subjective. However, I find that in a prediction roster... there are quite a few essentials. Obviously you have the under-represented series that many speculate will accumulate another Newcomer, perhaps more. Donkey Kong is usually a series that many consider to be under-represented. As such, you can always find Dixie or K. Rool... or in many cases, both on the same prediction roster. Just some advice to enlighten you, Smashboards doesn't know which series Sakurai interprets as incomplete. So it isn't necessarily going to be K. Rool and Ridley to make the overt non-inclusions negligible. I actually look towards series like Kid Icarus and Animal Crossing as having a potential Newcomer. Just because Villager is in, doesn't mean he is the only one in. It is a common fallacy utilized as he seems like the perfect character. However, Animal Crossing is huge. I wouldn't be surprised to see another one. As for Zelda, Sakurai has an implied intent to add more than just one Newcomer. So I expect that we will see another Zelda representative as well (we have precedent to support this notion). I wouldn't be surprised if we got a new Kirby character over a new franchise to be perfectly honest.

A lot of members speculate that Smash 4 is the time to bulk up on new franchises that only really offer one ideal character. If you actually believe that to be the case, more power to you. Honestly though, I think Isaac will be over Shulk in a heart-beat. I also believe that the Smashboards "shoe-in" characters are quite overrated.

I am only saying this as your picks seem "safe," no one will truly disagree with you as many expect most of those characters. I try to think outside of the box and mix things up. Trust me, I speculate on here everyday, my choices may seem odd at first, but they are backed by logic. Hopefully... one day... people speculate on characters they actually think have a chance as opposed to emulating popular lists.

1. Tingle
2. Hades
3. Samurai Goroh
4. Meowth (lol, not really... one can hope though)
5. Tom Nook (to a lesser extent)
6. Bandanna Dee

(the rest of my "predicted" characters are on everyone else's list).

 

[Richard 89]

When did he say that? Also, perhaps I am simply ignorant, but how have people decided that 48 isn't overly extreme?

Well since brawl had 38 or 39 characters total, it would be fitting to add at least 48-50, but that's my opinion.

 

[Morbi]

Well since brawl had 38 or 39 characters total, it would be fitting to add at least 48-50, but that's my opinion.

Sakurai stated that a roster of 39 characters was feasible. So I highly doubt that he will increase the roster by much more than 25% (which is roughly 50 representatives, a 10 character increase). That is the arbitrary cap that I place on potential characters. I feel like that is the ideal amount of fighters, assuming Brawl receives no cuts, we already have 43 out of 50 (which I believe to be the maximum). So I think we only have room for about 7 more Newcomers.

Probably just me, though.

 

[N3ON]

When did he say that? Also, perhaps I am simply ignorant, but how have people decided that 48 isn't overly extreme? I had guesstimated around 40 movesets with approximately 45-50 characters.

I suppose that depends on if you count semi-cloned movesets as their own moveset or not, which I was doing, as Sakurai does, considering even if based on another, they still require their own dev time and everything, and most have become more differentiated than they once were.

The original Japanese source where Sakurai states something along the lines of "while I could just have 50 characters or double the stages from Brawl, I don't want Smash 4 to be merely Brawl with more content" seems to have been taken down along with the Sora site, so all I have is the partially mis-translated English article.

 

[The Nerd]

Well since brawl had 38 or 39 characters total, it would be fitting to add at least 48-50, but that's my opinion.

39 Movesets, but I would argue a sufficient number of these were pseudo-clones, characters that would require less effort to include, than brand new characters. The development resources for the game were obviously stretched as seen with the recolor final smashes of the space animals, but I would argue that the clones should reduce the count back to 35.

The thing one has to remember is that adding resources to a project gives diminishing returns. After a certain point throwing more resources at it will garner little in gain. I fear that SSB4 is at that point; Smash 64 had comparatively few resources, and while Melee had more, it also had to learn hardware that was quite new. Brawl was given every single bit of attention possible to create the cast it had. While the lack of a massive, grandiose story mode will help alleviate some of the concerns, I do think that they will add less characters than in the past installments. Especially where Sakurai has stated not all characters will be returning, to me, signified that they've hit the limit for the number of characters they can create. Certainly Sakurai could *design* 50+ characters, but there just might not be the time or resources.

Anyways, that's my two cents. I suspect we'll have approx. 30 returning characters and 10 new ones in terms of movesets, and then some variable number of clones.

 

[Richard 89]

Sakurai stated that a roster of 39 characters was feasible. So I highly doubt that he will increase the roster by much more than 25% (which is roughly 50 representatives, a 10 character increase). That is the arbitrary cap that I place on potential characters. I feel like that is the ideal amount of fighters, assuming Brawl receives no cuts, we already have 43 out of 50 (which I believe to be the maximum). So I think we only have room for about 7 more Newcomers.

Probably just me, though.

That's kinda rough.

 

[9Volt]

1. Tingle
2. Hades
3. Samurai Goroh
4. Meowth (lol, not really... one can hope though)
5. Tom Nook (to a lesser extent)
6. Bandanna Dee

I like Hades, and Tom Nook have lot of potencial moves.
In his Final Smash he could throw a lot of leaves to the sky and start a rain of furniture like sofas and stuff.

People would LOVE to kick his ass, he is the most close villain in the animal crossing universe.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Here are my thoughts, bear in mind that this is entirely subjective. However, I find that in a prediction roster... there are quite a few essentials. Obviously you have the under-represented series that many speculate will accumulate another Newcomer, perhaps more. Donkey Kong is usually a series that many consider to be under-represented. As such, you can always find Dixie or K. Rool... or in many cases, both on the same prediction roster. Just some advice to enlighten you, Smashboards doesn't know which series Sakurai interprets as incomplete. So it isn't necessarily going to be K. Rool and Ridley to make the overt non-inclusions negligible. I actually look towards series like Kid Icarus and Animal Crossing as having a potential Newcomer. Just because Villager is in, doesn't mean he is the only one in. It is a common fallacy utilized as he seems like the perfect character. However, Animal Crossing is huge. I wouldn't be surprised to see another one. As for Zelda, Sakurai has an implied intent to add more than just one Newcomer. So I expect that we will see another Zelda representative as well (we have precedent to support this notion). I wouldn't be surprised if we got a new Kirby character over a new franchise to be perfectly honest.

A lot of members speculate that Smash 4 is the time to bulk up on new franchises that only really offer one ideal character. If you actually believe that to be the case, more power to you. Honestly though, I think Isaac will be over Shulk in a heart-beat. I also believe that the Smashboards "shoe-in" characters are quite overrated.

I am only saying this as your picks seem "safe," no one will truly disagree with you as many expect most of those characters. I try to think outside of the box and mix things up. Trust me, I speculate on here everyday, my choices may seem odd at first, but they are backed by logic. Hopefully... one day... people speculate on characters they actually think have a chance as opposed to emulating popular lists.

1. Tingle
2. Hades
3. Samurai Goroh
4. Meowth (lol, not really... one can hope though)
5. Tom Nook (to a lesser extent)
6. Bandanna Dee

(the rest of my "predicted" characters are on everyone else's list).

This is my favorite post of yours Morbid. (Also Tingle is best Zelda character)

I totally agree though. Making a roster based on what others like or think will happen is boring. When I was making my roster, I had Mewtwo on there since everyone loves him(and he's pretty much a lock), but I realized I didn't like him, so I replaced him with Genesect. Is Genesect likely? No, but I like making my own roster, rather than someone else's. It's also quite fun to throw in some oddballs. Some in my roster are Sukapon(who is impossible for some reason), Glover, and Mallo. Of course, there are some characters on my roster that are on every one's roster, but I legitimately support those characters.

Basically, make your roster with characters you like, and it'll end up being more unique.

 

[Morbi]

39 Movesets, but I would argue a sufficient number of these were pseudo-clones, characters that would require less effort to include, than brand new characters. The development resources for the game were obviously stretched as seen with the recolor final smashes of the space animals, but I would argue that the clones should reduce the count back to 35.

The thing one has to remember is that adding resources to a project gives diminishing returns. After a certain point throwing more resources at it will garner little in gain. I fear that SSB4 is at that point; Smash 64 had comparatively few resources, and while Melee had more, it also had to learn hardware that was quite new. Brawl was given every single bit of attention possible to create the cast it had. While the lack of a massive, grandiose story mode will help alleviate some of the concerns, I do think that they will add less characters than in the past installments. Especially where Sakurai has stated not all characters will be returning, to me, signified that they've hit the limit for the number of characters they can create. Certainly Sakurai could *design* 50+ characters, but there just might not be the time or resources.

Anyways, that's my two cents. I suspect we'll have approx. 30 returning characters and 10 new ones in terms of movesets, and then some variable number of clones.

While there are characters that are quite easy to develop (I would assert Jigglypuff, along with any overt semi-clones like Falco), there are still characters that attenuate development time as well (such as Pokemon Trainer, and possibly Ridley). We have to look at the roster collectively, not just the easy to develop portions. Not to mention the balancing, as Sakurai stated, it is multiplication as opposed to addition when it comes to adding newcomers. He isn't just saying that to be dramatic either, it is literally the case once you understand how it works.

 

[RouffWestie]

So who would be the first ones to cut?
I'm guessing Pac-Man would go first. Followed by Shulk, Palutena, K.Rool, and Isaac.

 

[The Nerd]

I suppose that depends on if you count semi-cloned movesets as their own moveset or not, which I was doing, as Sakurai does, considering even if based on another, they still require their own dev time and everything, and most have become more differentiated than they once were.

The original Japanese source where Sakurai states something along the lines of "while I could just have 50 characters or double the stages from Brawl, I don't want Smash 4 to be merely Brawl with more content" seems to have been taken down along with the Sora site, so all I have is the partially mis-translated English article.

That is certainly an interesting article, although it seemed to make it clear he had little interest in adding that many characters. Still, it's hard to say I suppose. I would argue that characters that can share or have similar assets would be easier to put in. It's one of the reasons I strongly believe Jigglypuff will be in; she can probably use quite a bit of the things already made for Kirby, slightly modified to fit her better. Even if this isn't the case she's got a simple model, and so should less effort than someone like, say, Ridley, who (setting aside his size issue) would have a massive amount of animation work and detail to get right.

Basically, make your roster with characters you like, and it'll end up being more unique.

Isn't this dependent on what you want to achieve with your Roster? I included many characters in mine after mulling it over and thinking as logically as I could while putting myself in Sakurai's shoes, and I ended up cutting a good number of 'shoo-in' characters and characters I'd really like. I went for accuracy to the actual game instead of simply throwing on my favourites, otherwise my list would look very different.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Isn't this dependent on what you want to achieve with your Roster? I included many characters in mine after mulling it over and thinking as logically as I could while putting myself in Sakurai's shoes, and I ended up cutting a good number of 'shoe-in' characters and characters I'd really like. I went for accuracy to the actual game instead of simply throwing on my favourites, otherwise my list would look very different.

Yeah, it's fine if you're just doing an absolute prediction roster, but I typically mesh my wish and prediction rosters together, so I end up with weirder choices. Also my rosters end up kinda big, so there's that to consider I guess.

(And oh my gosh guise, it's shoo-in!)

 

[The Nerd]

While there are characters that are quite easy to develop (I would assert Jigglypuff, along with any overt semi-clones like Falco), there are still characters that attenuate development time as well (such as Pokemon Trainer, and possibly Ridley). We have to look at the roster collectively, not just the easy to develop portions. Not to mention the balancing, as Sakurai stated, it is multiplication as opposed to addition when it comes to adding newcomers. He isn't just saying that to be dramatic either, it is literally the case once you understand how it works.

We think similarly it seems, I didn't see your post until after mine

I actually came up with the number 35 by taking 39, the number of movesets, and reducing 'easy' characters to .5 of a moveset. VERY rough math, but it kind of works. The balancing certainly becomes more complex with each additional character, but it seems *highly* unlikely that the people in charge of the individual assets for each character would be in charge of the balance as well. What I mean is that it seems likely that you would have an art team, an animation team, a design team, a sound team, etc. and a balance team on top of that. The question becomes at what point does adding a new character create more effort for the balance team than the rest of the teams, which I have no concept of, having not seriously ever had to try to balance a game before.

Shh, Headcrab, it'll be ok.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Plot twist: Wart gets in as a retro newcomer representing Doki Doki Panic.

 

[Morbi]

So who would be the first ones to cut?
I'm guessing Pac-Man would go first. Followed by Shulk, Palutena, K.Rool, and Isaac.

Pac-Man is a really interesting character as we have no relevant precedent pertinent to the way Sakurai actually treats these third-party characters. No one really understands how they will be handled. I mean, he could assert an arbitrary cap, or perhaps he wishes to double the amount of Brawl's and keep it no more than 2 per game? It is difficult to say, I used to think that Pac-Man was inevitable; however, I came to the revelation that Snake will be prioritized over Pac-Man (especially as Namco is co-developing the game). So I am not really sure about him, third-party characters intrigue me the most.

Shulk, in all honesty, is one of those characters that I blatantly disregard. Don't get me wrong, I truly enjoyed his game. That is just it though, one game. I truly view Isaac and Shulk in the same category (unique, magic-esque swordsmen). Isaac has the more prevalent franchise whilst also retaining the most Smash relevance. Shulk was really popular in one game and the series is picking up. I don't see why he would blatantly labor a disdain for Isaac. Some awkwardness would be achieved in the roster as the Manodo cannot attack humans. It isn't a huge concern as Smash is non-canon. Still, Isaac would have the sweet Matthew costume. Can both co-exist? Sure. However, it does really attenuate the notion of roster diversity in my opinion. So I usually speculate against him. If you are alluding to that tweet, many also misconstrue it. In my perspective, he was merely acknowledging its existence.

Palutena. Sorry bias kicks in. I actually fail to comprehend any overt negatives against her.

K. Rool. This one is going to get me in a lot of trouble. I honestly think he is the least likely Donkey Kong character (that is actually prominent). I can't help but fall into this pit of despondency when it comes down to the way they are treating this character. I doubt Sakurai will be our valiant hero, ready to rescue the beautiful and immaculate K. Rool. Many people try and justify his inclusion based on his staggering popularity and ripe move-set potential. Practical application of our speculating skills forces us to at the very least consider him. I just doubt it will happen. He is no longer an important part of Donkey Kong. Many forget the intent and purpose in Smash, the others... deny it. Smash is honestly a huge marketing tool. This isn't a bad thing. Not at all, I actually think it is an ingenious machination of cross-promotion. Dixie is the more iconic and prevalent character from Donkey Kong, her data was found in Brawl's code, and she has an important role in the upcoming Donkey Kong game. Sakurai wants his roster to withstand the persistence of time. As such, is he going to choose a character that isn't being properly utilized... or is he going to choose the easier implement that will most definitely be used in future DK titles? Then the defense "K. Rool and Dixie can co-exist comes up," as it is obvious who the more ideal candidate is. I would love to be proven wrong as he is one of my favorite Nintendo characters. I just don't see it happening. We actually have some inconclusive precedent based on how he treats Donkey Kong as it is. I mean, we had to wait for Brawl to get our favorite side-kick. I doubt he will be clamoring to shove in both K. Rool and Dixie, perhaps if he has some extra time. I just highly doubt that the series is that important to him... I mean consider the following... we got Lucas, from Mother, at the same time we got DIDDY KONG.

Anyways, cut who you want to cut. Actually try and determine if the character is likely... or popular. Popular isn't the equivalent to likely; however, it is also a contributing factor.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I hate to bring up Tabuu again, but the arguments mainly for him not being "generic" and such were terrible. Just really bad. But i'll get into that later because it would take me forever to type out my post on my iPod.

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Tabuu and really the whole Subspace Emissary seemed very uninspired and lackluster. I felt as though trying to make a coherent story with a motley, eclectic cast of characters was a futile task to begin with, and the Subspace Emissary showed that. Tabuu was generic, the original bosses were crap, the levels seemed barren, and it probably took a large amount of development time and effort.

 

[The Nerd]

K. Rool.

You took the words out of my mouth.

Also, people think Taboo could be character? It never even occurred to me until now. What a strange idea...

I don't think we'll see a new rep for Donkey Kong, period. If they do put one in, maybe Dixie. I doubt it though.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

If they do end up having to cut characters I feel Jigglypuff and Lucas would be the first to go, which I know a lot of people disagree with.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I kind of liked Duon and Galleom honestly, though I would certainly have appreciated it if bosses from other franchises were included instead.

 

[Gune]

If they do end up having to cut characters I feel Jigglypuff and Lucas would be the first to go, which I know a lot of people disagree with.

Lucas yes jiggs no.