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-Used as a vessel for the main villain of the game.My Unit is the "main" character? I know he can fight now, but does he affect and influence the story? It just seems a bit odd. Like I said, this out of my hands. However, my previous points still stand. Unless Lucina is Elincia levels of unimportant I doubt it makes a difference. In the end, she's more popular than Chrom in Japan atm, and if the Roster has already been decided, then perhaps she's already taken his spot in Smash... Or perhaps we got both of them.
-Kills Chrom in the future that Lucina came from (being the reason why Lucina is even in the past to begin with).
-Final Boss is both present main villain (as giant dragon) and future main villain (possessing future My Unit).
Your points also do not hold for multiple reasons:
1. The point about Lucina being more popular than Chrom has no source.
She may be the most popular female character while Chrom is the most popular male character for the game as shown on the website,
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/fe/kakusei_bk/kekka/index.html
But it doesn't state which of the two is more popular.
However, we have a poll conducted by Nintendo Dream in regards to overall character popularity, at which Chrom is on top with "Marth" being 2nd. Lucina as herself is only tied for 3rd with Gaia (who seems to be very popular overall for some reason I don't understand...)
http://serenesforest.net/fe13/img/fe13poll.jpg
The only way that Lucina can claim to be more popular is if you were to combine the votes for her and the votes for "Marth", but that opens up a larger can of worms in the whole seperate identity crisis that would be comparable to say, an OoT popularity contest with having both Zelda and Sheik as options. Votes for "Marth" may not necessarily be votes for Lucina, for example.
And another smaller poll that Sakurai had posted on his Twitter was for characters that have appeared in recent titles.
Of Fire Emblem characters for Kakusei, we see Chrom being the most popular, with Ike in second (at this point in time, he only appeared in Spotpass), Marth, and then Gaia. Lucina, either as herself or "Marth" are not within the Top 20.
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m60ugvPyYS1qaur2ao1_500.jpg
2. Only main characters from Fire Emblem have made it so far, and it's likely to keep that way. I never said Lucina was not important, but she is not one of the two main characters, which are Chrom and the My Unit. She comes pretty damn close, however. It's Chrom from Awakening or no one from Awakening. You can hold me to it.
3. If both Chrom and Lucina get in, they will not be seperate. Two newcomers from the same game is completely farfetched no matter what logic you try to stretch it with. Instead, they would be a new tag-team to represent the new tag-team system from Awakening. You can hold me to that too. And no, Lucina will not replace Marth. No one will. To bet against Marth at this point is the same thing as betting against Pikachu.