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Risk vs. Reward Discussion/Analysis Thread

MythTrainerInfinity

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I've been playing with this idea for a bit, discussed it a bit in the Lucario Back Room, so here goes!

With every move there is both risk and reward. Its a basic concept of play that we Lucarios need to explore, as we constantly go on "autopilot" in certain situations where we get punished pretty hard. The purpose is to understand what options we have and see what better decisions we can make.

Edit: Certain situations have different risks and rewards when you do something. For example Aura Sphere's priority increases as Lucario takes damage making it possible to outprioritze things you normally would not.

I want to keep this a focused, but yet open discussion. I'd like to start discussing what options we have against common and less common situations.

Let's start with common things I've seen that trouble us.

What to do against Marth's FAir spam:

FAir him back
Risk: There's a good chance he will hit you before you hit him. Even if you both hit each other you will be taking more damage.
Reward: 3-7% damage on Marth and/or a possible string at low %s.
Roll behind him
Risk: He could do a retreating FAir or some other form of punishment.
Reward: You get to nail him with one of your tilts. If you execute this at the same time he FAirs (and he does not hit you) you have a 2 frame advantage, which only something like an UTilt should be able to hit with the least amount of risk.
Nair
Airdodge forwards
Retreat and charge AS
DTilt
RAR Bair
Double Team
FTilt
FSmash

You get the idea.

Approaching via full hopping in close/mid quarters against Snake
Risk: You stand to get punished really really easily. Snake can easily fire a mortar up your butt, UTilt, pull out more nades, air attack of his choice OoS, grabbed, etc.
Reward: If his shield is low there's a good chance you'll whack him with DAir, Aura Sphere
Analysis: Be reallllly careful when you full hop in close/mid range vs. Snake. You want to get him in the air, not the other way around. Short-hopping is often better if you must jump to approach him (unless if you are jumping over nades).

Bait characters with energy absorption/reflecting abilities by doing empty jumps in close/mid range:
Risk: If they read you or are trigger happy (Pit, Fox, Falco) they might try to camp you back. If you're too close you have a chance to get Up Smashed by Fox and Falco.
Reward: You wear down their shield without doing anything. If they try some air attack there's a good choice you'll be able to punish with Lucario's disjointed hitboxes.
Analysis: It can be a good mind game, but don't get predictable with it.

Pound someone's shield with DAir
Risk: Getting grabbed, Back aired, USmashed, Utilted, Shuttle Looped, explode a Grenade, etc. If we attack at higher percents we have a better chance of easily getting hit by <insert kill move here>.
Reward: Shield pressure, shield poking, but both of these options are better when you can apply more pressure. At higher percents we apply more pressure.
Analysis: Not something we should rely on when our opponent has a full or near full shield. You might even avoid this altogether, as it can be relatively easy to punish us for it.

Hard camping against Peach when we are at higher % (let's just say 75%)
Risk: You might have some trouble getting away to camp if she closes in on you and you could get DAired or something. She could just use Toad. She could throw the Stitchface turnip (lol). She may go aggro here.
Reward: At full charge at 75% we beat most of her turnips even if you take into account staling AS a bit. Even if she autocancel FAirs at an Aura Sphere (and does not hit you) you might try a BAS to follow up. If she uses Toad (and does not hit you) you could follow up with a BAS. If she glidetosses she gets hit, if she airdodges she will likely get hit, not to mention she's not exactly the fastest.
Analysis: Peach is vulnerable to Lucario's camping at higher %s. So, don't just jump at her and spam FAirs >.>

tl;dr version: Let's talk about the risk and reward of doing something.
 

Dark 3nergy

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OP would you say that the system of risk and reward varies depending on what percent lucario is at?

should i be still just as worried about not getting hit at later %?
 

Aurasmash14

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Punishing Marth's fsmash with Ftilt. I saw this a while back at one of RJ's vids. It was cool, hilarious and risky as hell. discuss.
 

MythTrainerInfinity

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Punishing Marth's fsmash with Ftilt. I saw this a while back at one of RJ's vids. It was cool, hilarious and risky as hell. discuss.
Uh, if someone could get the vid, so we can analyze it that would be amazing.

I am absolutely shocked it was MythTrainerInfinity who made this thread, no offense.
:p
 

Browny

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Did you expect it would be me kita?

Basing decisions on risk v reward sums up my life... for better or worse :/ As such, this is an area I have put a lot of thought into in the past lol.

Anyway... you have to consider conditioning and of course the % you and the enemy is at. The marth fair example is a typical scenario. Consider that same situation if Lucario is on 0%, 150%, and whether the marth is at low %, high %, or if it his last stock. Youll find peoples playstyles shift dramatically. People will no longer take a chance to damage the enemy if it will result in them dying, even if the option may normally be 100% guaranteed. Watch any video of a wario stalling out the likes of snake to see what i mean lol.

The end result is you cannot apply a risk v reward analysis to every scenario because there is simply far too many and you will be operating under the assumption the enemy will make rational decisions. Lucario complicates this even further with his own % changing the way people play. I believe risk vs. reward is a very good thing to use since brawls chip-damage style of play favours those who make the most correct decisions, not those who may make just one that leads into a 0-death like in melee.

Im not saying this thread wont provide anything useful, but this is a VERY complicated mindset which everyone uses, some more so that others and you cannot simply read up all risk v reward situations vs a character and suddenly be able to apply them. If people indeed want to start using this mindset more i would suggest testing it for an extended period of time vs real opponents. you may find what you learn about risk v reward in theory, or in practice can be vastly different, with both types capable of being the correct one. You may find some of the best players take some ridiculous risks that dont make sense and be able to dominate (a11y) and some which are so precise and methodical while having the same effect (4dhd).
 

phi1ny3

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DJB search is broken for now, it's safe to do names lol (for now).

I also want to mention ICs stray from the traditional trend of risk v. reward. The "ultimatum" they hold makes the opponent skimp on a lot of risk options, since if they get punished it could mean death.
 

MythTrainerInfinity

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Gooooggggllleeeee search.

How do we fight them? Do we go for attacking them both or going out of our way to gimp Nana?

Any situations you guys wanna specifically discuss vs. the Ice Grabbers?
 

Darach

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How do we fight them? Do we go for attacking them both or going out of our way to gimp Nana?

Any situations you guys wanna specifically discuss vs. the Ice Grabbers?
Fighting them is scary especially if you get cornered and wants to lol grab you. . So my opinion is we need to keep our distance and separate them and knock one out(easier said then done). But this is solely on my experience I don't think I saw a lucario vs Ice climber >_>;
 

phi1ny3

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imo I'm going to make a risky assertion here only because it's a mental thing more than anything. The reason why ICs **** a lot of lower level players is the same reason why things like Fox laser seem to be more effective against the same people. Traditionally in a match you're conditioned to treat some aspects of the game similarly. In a traditional sense of the game, percent matters a loooot in most games because it's what prevents you from doing some options and at the same time enables certain tactics to work that otherwise wouldn't, etc. ICs against a lot of people make people stress out a lot when they're losing in percentage, which don't get me wrong is a very important aspect, but ultimately it comes down to who's ahead in leverage by stock and position. If that means you take 20% to stay safe and bide until you separate the ICs, that means you won. Most characters especially above ICs force a much stronger reaction when in the lead, but the reality is there's as much danger to ICs that could happen in one move as it can to you. They can't plank or air camp exactly, and while they do outcamp you the tools are of kinds that you just need to stay patient and think logically in order to beat. Similarly, Fox lasers + reflector does outcamp a lot of people (including Falco if I remember correctly), but people need to calm down about the mechanics of fox laser. I wouldn't sacrifice my mid-range zoning/spacing (about the time when fox considers to stop camping and reacts to an option) or my options for the minute percentage I've saved by shielding at about there, it's a terrible option to do all the time. These kinds of mechanics are ones that trip people up a looooot because they follow by the book, which can be bad in outcome. There's more to the game than a easy-to-see, tangible advantage, and that's what separates smarter players from those that get caught up in these sorts of things.
 

MythTrainerInfinity

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Let's talk about Jabs.

DJBrowny said:
When would be an appropriate time to use a Jab, at what times you will get punished, etc.

The obvious:
Don't jab on shielding Marths, MKs, and D3, due to invincibility on their Up Bs or grabs.

When to use:
Punishing landing lag, when you expect to shieldpoke (like vs. uber small shields), mixups, refreshing moves (and on stages like Siege or on D3's Waddles)...

Against Snake in the air (if he's not NAiring or BAiring, which in that case angled FTilt, AS, and FSmash are pretty much always better) since FTilt has two hits if Snake pulls out a nade you have a much better chance of blowing it up with a FTilt rather than a Jab.

Catch a fast faller in the air with a Jab and you should be able to follow up with more Jabs, grab, or something else.

Pros:
IASA frames (Jab 1 and Jab 2), can lead to various strings (ex. grab, Force Palm, Tilts), gets your opponent in the air (Jab 3), disjointed hitboxes :D (note Jab 3 is a bit less disjointed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTaboNQmyfg), works well against unwary dashing opponents.

Cons:
Slow start up for a Jab (6 frames... UTilt is quicker), low damage until high Aura (Jab 2 is Lucario's weakest move, Jab 1 is Lucairo's second weakest move, and Jab 3 is only as strong as FAir), can be easy to punish for grounded opponents.

I'd really like other people's thoughts on Lucario's Jabs.
 

Aurasmash14

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im tellin you guys. Jab is 2 gewd.

Pros- good range for a jab, leads to and can come from, various strings, and any various weird stuff Phil can think up. seriously though. jab from fair>nair. tis awesome sight to behold.

cons - its slow, not that powerful, and we arent Ike :/ it aint very safe either.
 

RT

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It's interesting to see what happens if you just jab once and see how your opponent will react to it.
 
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