Magolor
His biggest issue? He doesn't seem to be popular on the Smash Ballot. Bandana Dee, as far as I can tell, is getting by far the most votes of any Kirby character. Why even have the ballot if they're going to skip down to like, the 50th most requested character or something like that? There are plenty of great choices in the top twenty already with popularity, uniqueness and move set potential. Honestly, only a handful of characters are getting in, and from the polls I've seen, there's really no reason to go outside the top twenty, and Magolor... he's not gonna make it there.
Aside from that, he's only had cameos since his debut, he's a few years old and a couple Kirby games have come out since then, so he's not
super recent/relevant (neither is he really old news, mind you). Other characters are more important in Kirby. He may be the most likely villain from Kirby though, perhaps. And I don't see much reason for Sakurai to be biased in his favor since Sakurai didn't create him - at least Bandana Dee comes from Waddle Dee, so he's like a 2nd generation version of one of his creations.
And unless we get
a ton of DLC characters, I don't see Kirby getting two. Why? Because for one, once they pick the most popular Kirby character, other, non-Kirby characters will be much more popular on the ballot. Beyond that, they may be looking at the votes for K Rool and Dixie and saying "there are a lot of DK fans who want a DK character". They can presume that if a series has multiple popular characters, that's a better series to give multiple DLC characters. Then again, they can probably assume that some Dixie fans and some K Rool fans will be happy with either because it's still a DK character. So at the same time, they might think, maybe DK doesn't need two reps even though it has two popular characters because the DK block as a whole will be reasonably satisfied.
But why would they look at Kirby, with only one highly requested character (Bandana Dee) and think they should add two characters? Many Magolor fans will also be happy that Bandana Dee got in. And fewer people in general will be excited for Magolor. And why would they pick Magolor over Bandana Dee, who gets a lot more votes?
This is not esoteric reasoning, is it?
Magolor chances: 0.3%
Magolor want: 0%
I don't really want Magolor
or Bandana Dee, but I'd rather they at least satisfy the larger fanbase. Also Magolor would irritate me since it would mean they passed over much more popular choices on the ballot.
Midna + Wolf Link prediction: 9%
Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5
Second, STOP WITH REPS.
Sakurai added Rosalina and we go further.
Nobody expected a Mario newcomer, let alone a second one.
I strongly expected Mario to get a newcomer because it was underrepresented in Brawl (I only expected one newcomer though because usually series only get one). And that statistical model I did predicted 5 or possibly 6 reps for the Mario series. Dr. Mario was unexpected though. But Dr. Mario also didn't go through the same process, which Sakurai himself explained. So it's understandable to make that error - he wasn't originally intended to be a separate character.
So basically... the statistical model I made, which was
explicitly based around the idea of "series reps", actually predicted the thing that you're trying to use as evidence against series reps!
Like seriously people... I have statistical evidence that reps matter. Does it mean they're the only thing that matters? No! Of course not! But I don't understand why people are so insistent that reps don't matter. Is it just that they can't stand the idea that their favorite character might not get in because it's from a smaller series or that series is already well-represented?
But not for just a series, no the series with the biggest amount of reps.
And the series with
by far the most sales. Like, seriously. Hundreds of millions of games sold ahead of its closest competitor, Pokemon. Using reps as part of the reasoning is not just about which series already have reps, it's also about how many each series "deserves" based on factors like sales and popularity. Mario getting more reps than anyone else is not surprising. You can literally add up all the sales of Zelda, DK, Kirby, Metroid, Star Fox, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Punch-Out, Xenoblade, F-Zero, Kid Icarus, Pikmin and Game & Watch... and still be over 100 million in sales less than the Mario series. If reps were assigned linearly based on sales*, Mario would have 20 reps in Smash 4. Just so you see the magnitude by which Mario is bigger than everyone else.
And, actually, Mario did not have the most reps in Brawl anyway (and had been tied for the most in Smash 64 and Melee). It was
underrepresented in the past, not
overrepresented.
*My model uses the logarithm of a series' sales, which is why it doesn't make such silly predictions
Bandana Dee has no trophy.
Magolor has.
Sakurai has picked Magolor and dismissed Dee already.
I assume that if either one gets in, it will be because of the Smash Ballot. Is there any reason to believe that Magolor is anywhere close to the same amount of votes, given that Bandana Dee actually charts in many polls, and Magolor does not in any poll I've seen?
"soon"
