Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Skyblade12]

Nope. I read it. This is what I read...
"He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two."
One of the two most likely characters doesn't mean one of the two confirmed characters, which is what a 100% rating means.

No, a 100% rating means that I personally do not believe there is any chance that he will not be one of the upcoming DLC characters. If he were confirmed, we wouldn't be rating him.

Also this...
"Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters."
Which is a confession that you're purposely skewing the votes which completely ruins the point of the game.

No, purposely skewing the vote would be me making a couple of dozen fake accounts (on different machines from different places) just to vote Isaac up. Which, if you all discard my vote, I'll gladly do, forcing you guys to discard this entire day's worth of votes.

That was more a comment about how the only reason I'm posting in THIS day's RTC when I haven't posted in any of the last couple of hundred is because I don't want to see more of the nonsensical bias that's been tossed around on a lot of previous days take over Isaac's vote day. Which it was already doing.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Wow...lot going on here...

Futile attemt to pull thread back on topic: a lot of people are forgetting to give nominations. If you edit them in later, tag me so I can get them. Right now, we've got four things in the #2 position, for anyone who hasn't nominated yet...

 

[BluePikmin11]

I fixed the post True, your original post had double quotes on it I think.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

I wonder if I should regret having nominated Isaac all this time... 0_0;
Ah well, at least I can finish this thread when I tally up all my scores for all the other characters we've rated.

Final Nominations - Ghirahim X5

 

[TallT]

I gave an actual reason, though I do appreciate that you prefer blocking people's voting rights to actually reading their posts. Since it's too difficult for you to trace back to the original post, however:



If we are getting two characters from the ballot, I believe they will be K. Rool and Isaac. Simple, factual, and straightforward. If I thought there was a chance that we would be getting FEWER than two characters from the ballot, I'd rate Isaac lower. But I don't think there is, and I am not going to let it influence my vote.

And if we're really going to start discarding votes, this thread is about to become a LOT more fun.

You don't like the way I voted. Tough luck. I don't like the way a number of other people voted. I don't have any way to influence them or their votes though (except apparently calling to get their votes cancelled, which I will be quite happy to do).

So, do what I do: DEAL WITH IT.

I read your post; however, after making a statement like "Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters." I have a hard time believing you think Isaac has a 100% chance of getting in but your are giving him such a a rating for the reason stated by you.

No, a 100% rating means that I personally do not believe there is any chance that he will not be one of the upcoming DLC characters. If he were confirmed, we wouldn't be rating him.



No, purposely skewing the vote would be me making a couple of dozen fake accounts (on different machines from different places) just to vote Isaac up. Which, if you all discard my vote, I'll gladly do, forcing you guys to discard this entire day's worth of votes.

That was more a comment about how the only reason I'm posting in THIS day's RTC when I haven't posted in any of the last couple of hundred is because I don't want to see more of the nonsensical bias that's been tossed around on a lot of previous days take over Isaac's vote day. Which it was already doing.

REALLY DUDE?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Contradictory much when you use Little Mac as a counter argument. Retros don't work as an example.

How the heck does Little Mac being retro at the time do anything to counter the fact that lack of playability obviously doesn't automatically mean that Sakurai doesn't see a franchise as worthy? You used that quote, insisting the he could be referring to pre-Pikmin franchises when there is no actual evidence for him, ignoring the fact there is no objective evidence for what Sakurai thought of the GS franchise in terms of worthiness and putting in your personal conjecture without any actual proof.

The decline in Golden Sun content certainly says something of how much of an important priority GS is to Sakurai.

Again,you're not taking into account other factors, instead looking at something, not considering any possible reason and saying for certain that this must be because of this reason. Have you ever considered the possibility that despite his popularity, Isaac was removed as an AT whilst the likes of Starfy and Saki were kept, because he didn't want Isaac to have an established in-game role, therefore being potentially interested in seeing him as DLC? Because both possibilities are equally likely, no matter how much you insist Isaac's AT being removed must automatically be a detriment to his chances.

He may be a big icon to many, but his actual demand in getting in Smash Bros before the leak came was pretty bare. Even the support thread was bare in replies because many believed that the fighting game characters quote was detrimental to his chances. Sakurai can add a character whose demand is low, and Ryu is among one of those examples.

popular within video games =/= highly requested in Smash.

Rationalising Ryu's popularity does nothing to counter the fact that unpopular characters simply are at a major disadvantage, certainly more so than for the intiial roster because of the fact characters have to be popular enough to be profitable as DLC, to which unpopular characters aren't. Failing to accept the fact that Sakurai objectively takes into account popularity more so than in the pre-Smash 4 peirod as shown by his actual quote would mean that anyone who honestly believes unpopular characters have a good chance will be disappointed.

 

[Scamper52596]

Maybe, but you're forgetting one important thing- it is the factor of an online ballot that Sakurai uses to gauge fan demand among the online Smash Bros fanbase. Isaac being popular on the Internet among Smash Bros fans is only advantegous. Whilst we don't know how well he is actually doing in the poll, every unofficial ballot poll taken with a substantial amount of votes in the West has him doing incredibly well, so there is a good chance he is doing well in the ballot.

Which brings me right back to my explanation on Isaac's chances when I stated that he's not a very popular character outside of the Internet forums due to not being generally recognizable. I didn't forget, I just don't think he's as popular of a character to the general audience as many people around here seem to. There are a lot more people voting on characters than there are in these online polls, and not all of them care or know about many of the characters that are big names on Smashboards, GameFAQs, Reddit, etc, and I believe Sakurai is aiming to pick characters that are going to appeal to everybody. That's why we've had three DLC veterans, and that's why we've gotten a newcomer who's recognizable to pretty much everybody who plays video games. Because of this, I don't feel that Sakurai and the developers see Isaac as a safe choice for DLC, but maybe they would instead consider him for Smash 5 which is what I mentioned in my previous rating for Isaac. That's just my opinion. I do tend to hang out with a lot of Smash 4 players, and I don't recall ever hearing one of them mention Isaac as a character they really want to see as DLC. That's probably the main reason my opinion is the way it is.

No, a 100% rating means that I personally do not believe there is any chance that he will not be one of the upcoming DLC characters. If he were confirmed, we wouldn't be rating him.



No, purposely skewing the vote would be me making a couple of dozen fake accounts (on different machines from different places) just to vote Isaac up. Which, if you all discard my vote, I'll gladly do, forcing you guys to discard this entire day's worth of votes.

That was more a comment about how the only reason I'm posting in THIS day's RTC when I haven't posted in any of the last couple of hundred is because I don't want to see more of the nonsensical bias that's been tossed around on a lot of previous days take over Isaac's vote day. Which it was already doing.

I think I'm going to stop arguing with you right here because it's so ironic that you came to vote this one day just because you don't want to see anymore of the nonsensical bias that's been tossed around on a lot of previous days when you're the one doing it the most out of anybody I've seen as of late. This just shows me how utterly pointless this conversation is, and I just don't have time for it anymore. I'm done.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Which brings me right back to my explanation on Isaac's chances when I stated that he's not a very popular character outside of the Internet forums due to not being generally recognizable. I didn't forget, I just don't think he's as popular of a character to the general audience as many people around here seem to. There are a lot more people voting on characters than there are in these online polls, and not all of them care or know about many of the characters that are big names on Smashboards, GameFAQs, Reddit, etc, and I believe Sakurai is aiming to pick characters that are going to appeal to everybody. That's why we've had three DLC veterans, and that's why we've gotten a newcomer who's recognizable to pretty much everybody who plays video games. Because of this, I don't feel that Sakurai and the developers see Isaac as a safe choice for DLC, but maybe they would instead consider him for Smash 5 which is what I mentioned in my previous rating for Isaac. That's just my opinion. I do tend to hang out with a lot of Smash 4 players, and I don't recall ever hearing one of them mention Isaac as a character they really want to see as DLC. That's probably the main reason my opinion is the way it is.

*Shrugs* Either way, at the end of the day, the only way for us to truly know the extend of Isaac's popularity in the Smash Ballot is for us to see the results, which I suppose could go several ways.

In my personal experience, I tend to see a lot of people who want Isaac.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

And i thought that Bayonetta's day was chaotic......

Don't forget Young Link's day (the first one)...

 

[Skyblade12]

I read your post; however, after making a statement like "Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters." I have a hard time believing you think Isaac has a 100% chance of getting in but your are giving him such a a rating for the reason stated by you.

I have a hard time believing ANY of the reasons BluePikmin11 gives for ANY of his picks (especially with pages of people explaining, in great detail, how his arguments are incorrect and self-contradictory), so we're even there. His votes still count, though.


I've always had a fairly simple and straightforward system for rating characters. The percentage chance is based on how many more characters are going to be put in the game. Basically "if they put on more character in, it HAS to be this character" was a rating of 100%. If I believed "this character will get in if two more characters get in", that was a 50% chance. And it progressed like that. It was the only way I could actually put NUMBERS to something that is 100% subjective.

Because of that, I rated Mewtwo as my 100% when I rated the original RTC characters. But the ballot is a little odd. Again, it's a question of mathematics.

If we get one Ballot character, it's K. Rool. If we get two, it's K. Rool and Isaac. At three, I'm guessing probably Inkling. It gets a little fuzzy after that. I think Shantae might be number four, but I honestly don't usually bother tracking the results and running them through my own metrics to determine who is more likely.

So, normally, Isaac would be a 50% chance. However, since I don't believe that there is even a 1% chance that we aren't getting at least two ballot characters, Isaac is at 100%.


Wolf is an interesting case. I, like many others, believe that his position is cemented as a pre-ballot character. Because of this status, I think his actual ballot votes are relatively low. Everyone assumes "oh, he's already getting in", and thus, relatively few people are voting for him. So if he IS in fact a ballot character, he'd be much lower in terms of votes than Isaac.

How much would veteran bias push Wolf up the flagpole? Really difficult to say. Does it make Isaac less than certain? Probably. But how would I quantify that?

Ok, let's say that there's a 10% chance the Wolf is a ballot character instead of already being worked on. If he's not, Isaac is at 100%. So Isaac won't drop below 90% (100% of the 90% chance that Wolf is already in progress). But, if Wolf IS a ballot character, what does he do to Isaac? Well, at most, he pushes Isaac to number 3. Which, as I believe we're only guaranteed two ballot characters, would make Isaac's chances in that case 50%. Which would be 95%.

However, I don't think that Wolf is guaranteed to push Isaac to number 3 in that case, as I don't think he's getting tons of votes. But he is easier to work on... So, yeah, we'll leave it at 50% of the remaining 10% just to be safe.

So, here is my fully adjusted Chance Percentage:
If Wolf is not a ballot character: 100%
If Wolf is a ballot character: 50%
Chance that wolf is a ballot character: 10%

Total Isaac chance: 95%

EDIT: It was pointed out to me that it is unlikely that a ballot spot will be wasted on a veteran, especially given how many veterans are already pre-ballot. The ballot is much more likely to be used to bring in newcomers, and indeed was likely added to bring in new ideas for newcomers specifically.

Let's adjust that back up to 100%.

Don't forget Young Link's day (the first one)...

Which is actually the day that first convinced me that BluePikmin should be banned from this thread, and made sure that I never came back until today. And here it is, so many days later, and nothing has changed.

REALLY DUDE?

Well, if you're so eager to discard votes, we might as well make it fair and discard them all.

 

[Pazzo.]

Issac Chance: 50%

While I think rating any character numerically is pointless, Isaac has plenty of unique factors that Sakurai could consider.
As a concept start, I imagine 'Battlefield Magician' is fine.

Isaac Want: 100%

Let's fe it... FE has enough characters. So when you tell me that I can get ANOTHER RPG swordsman that comes with plenty of interesting potential movesets AND good music, I'm all in.

Oh, and find a way to incorporate his Dark Dawn design please.

Spoiler

 

[BluePikmin11]

Skyblade, that was quite possibly the rudest comment I have ever read. I give my opinion and in return I get "BluePikmin should be banned."

You used that quote, insisting the he could be referring to pre-Pikmin franchises when there is no actual evidence for him, ignoring the fact there is no objective evidence for what Sakurai thought of the GS franchise in terms of worthiness and putting in your personal conjecture without any actual proof.

He directly states before and after Pikmin, how is it not evidence at all? The only popular Nintendo franchise (not third party since they are a different matter not retro) that had a playable character in Brawl was Pikmin. Isaac had the moveset potential, franchise popularity, and demand provided, yet was added as an AT instead. He might've not gave direct discussion about Isaac, but there are enough pieces in the puzzle to sum up that Isaac as a Nintendo character didn't have enough to warrant playability.

Again,you're not taking into account other factors, instead looking at something, not considering any possible reason and saying for certain that this must be because of this reason. Have you ever considered the possibility that despite his popularity, Isaac was removed as an AT whilst the likes of Starfy and Saki were kept, because he didn't want Isaac to have an established in-game role, therefore being potentially interested in seeing him as DLC? Because both possibilities are equally likely, no matter how much you insist Isaac's AT being removed must automatically be a detriment to his chances.

There's also the possibility of time constraints in adding ATs. Just like how the Pokeball Pokemon selection changes in each Smash game. If he was interested in adding Isaac, he would've done it by now in the base game, where most of the new franchises were added at the time.

Rationalising Ryu's popularity does nothing to counter the fact that unpopular characters simply are at a major disadvantage, certainly more so than for the intiial roster because of the fact characters have to be popular enough to be profitable as DLC, to which unpopular characters aren't. Failing to accept the fact that Sakurai objectively takes into account popularity more so than in the pre-Smash 4 peirod as shown by his actual quote would mean that anyone who honestly believes unpopular characters have a good chance will be disappointed.

There are other ways that unpopular characters can be profitable. They might be profitable with them being an icon in video gaming, or maybe being from a popular franchise that has had large contribution to Nintendo, or maybe the fact they are a feasible last minute clone.

Demand in Smash isn't taken all the time, and I'm quite certain Ryu's lack of demand in Smash is enough proof that less demanded characters can get in as DLC.

Setting high expectations to only popular characters as DLC pre-ballot wise and ballot wise with Sakurai in charge of the DLC is falling for a banana peel on the street.

 

[candyissweet]

I feel like for Isaac we're arguing for 100%'s and 0%'s only.

I don't mean to offend anyone, but shouldn't we at least acknowledge other people's points about whether he will or won't be in. I will admit everything that everyone is saying is very true, but all I'm seeing is people are arguing that Isaac WILL make it in, and people arguing he WON'T make it in.

I'm not very clear, so what I'm saying is we need to focus on why Isaac MIGHT be in, and also focus on why Isaac might NOT be in. Then nobody will have been wrong at the end of all the DLC speculation whether he makes it or not.

I feel like I've over-complicated my point...

 

[True Blue Warrior]

"


He directly states before and after Pikmin, how is it not evidence at all?

Because if you read what he meant in clear writing, you'll find no evidence that he considrs Pre-Pikmin franchises unworthy, only post Pikmin ones

There's also the possibility of time constraints in adding ATs. Just like how the Pokeball Pokemon selection changes in each Smash game. If he was interested in adding Isaac, he would've done it by now in the base game, where most of the new franchises were added at the time.

... I don't need to point out why that argument doesn't work considering how it could have applied to every single character that didn't make it in. Really? That is a terrible argument and a huge fallacy.

There are other ways that unpopular characters can be profitable. They might be profitable with them being an icon in video gaming,

Because there aren't any video game icons with low appeal enough to be considered unpopular and thus doesn't work as an example.

or maybe being from a popular franchise that has had large contribution to Nintendo, or maybe the fact they are a feasible last minute clone.

Being those things doesn't mean diddly squat if the character itself lack the potential to sell. The general fanbase aren't gullible enough to just buy any characters they don't know and care about. DLC is optional content which cost a lot of time money and effort to make and is completely optional to people. If people aren't interested in the character (hence the character being unpopular) then a lot of money will have been spend for no reasonable reward. And considering each character is sold seperately by default and how much they cost, that is absolutely not a smart business decision. What's so hard a concept to grasp about that? Of course unpopular characters are unlikely because they are unpopular and nothing Sakurai do could make them appealing enough to outweigh the costs of making an unpopular character DLC.

 

[Drason]

OK Guys we might wanna calm down this is getting out of hand

 

[Skyblade12]

Skyblade, that was quite possibly the rudest comment I have ever read. I give my opinion and in return I get "BluePikmin should be banned."

Maybe you should have considered "rudeness" before you spent a page and a half telling the Isaac support thread they were delusional.

I'm sure by this point the regulars have gotten used to arguing with you and think it's just part of RTC. But have you considered why half of this thread is people telling you you're wrong? Using your own quotes as evidence to support them?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

OK Guys we might wanna calm down this is getting out of hand

I am calm and collected.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

OK Guys we might wanna calm down this is getting out of hand

Yeah, if all we're gonna do is argue when we're rating popular characters, the thread might close down.
Here this image will relax you,

Spoiler

So what are his chances and want?

 

[Kenith]

Isaac:
Chance: 78%.
Want: 75%.

Honestly, I consider him to be in a similar situation as King K. Rool. While significantly less popular he still IS really popular and has been since pre-Brawl. Similar to King K. Rool I feel Sakurai may find merit in including a character that is somewhat forgotten that's also popular simply because it would be make a lot of people happy (even non-supporters).

I don't know much about him, but what I do know is very enticing. Earth magic is appealing and I like Isaac in SSF2.

Iwata Tribute:
Chance: 50%.
Want: 100%.

Due to the timing of his passing and his significance to Nintendo I would not be surprised if there was some kind of tribute in the next update (or sooner) to Mr. Iwata. However, I could easily see them going the other way and trying to move on by the time that could happen.

However I'd love for this to happen. I feel like Iwata deserves a direct tribute in Smash Bros., whether it's a trophy of Iwata or something related to Balloon Fighter or, perhaps a Mii Fighter costume of a suit or something.

---
Nominations: Excitebike x5
Listing my nominations immediately after talking about Iwata so nonchalantly feels somewhat disrespectful...

 

[LIQUID12A]

Sorry I'm late to the tragedy.

Probably for the better, though. I'm not going to continue it on my end(I did enough by kickstarting it in the first place) and simply contribute to @ Scamper52596 's mini-petition to @ colder_than_ice and not have the vote count. At least when that Geno incident happened, it was blatant trolling. Now it's just bias fueled rage towards the masses.

 

[Delzethin]

I had a feeling this would happen...but I thought it'd be from DLC predictions, not the regular ratings. I guess things are just as unpredictable here as Smash's actual content is?

-♪-

Rerate: Isaac

Chance: 60% -> 60%
Three and a half months into the Smash Ballot, and what have we learned? For one, Sakurai's team is much more capable of cranking out characters than we thought they were. For two, they're all in on DLC, though we don't know how long they'll be able to go with it. For three, Sakurai has said they're focusing on "fan service" from here on out. None of this hurts Isaac in the slightest.

In fact, I feel like this whole argument about lack of relevance being a risk is misguided. While being involved in a recent game was important for characters on the initial roster, the Smash Ballot seems to be a way around it. Though there're issues it cannot solve, there is no better way to counteract a character's lack of relevance than a mountain of votes saying "we still remember them and care about them". We may end up being off base, but it seems like lack of relevance is no longer a deal breaker.

And now that his lack of relevance can be offset by enough fan support, his strong points can--no pun intended--shine. His moveset potential is extremely high, with access to multiple types of swords, multiple types of critical hits, a long list of Psynergy spells, the Djinn spirits found throughout his games, and even a list of summons. He'd even feel completely unique despite being another sword user, as he'd use a hybrid of swordplay and magic, something only Robin currently does. Furthermore, he'd feel distinct even from Robin due to Psynergy's innate nature of affecting the surrounding terrain (versus pure elemental spells) and due to having an affinity for earth magic, something we flat out do not have so far.

In short, the ballot may take away Isaac's only drawback, and his strong points are exactly the kind the developers sought for the initial roster. I can't count out something weird happening, but I can comfortably say I think Isaac is the second most likely newcomer and third most likely DLC candidate overall.

In fact...there's still that small chance he could be a pre-Ballot character. Maybe he was one of the characters deemed low priority because he didn't have a new game in the works.

Want: 85% -> 85%
And I haven't lost any interest in him, either. A blend of swordsmanship with (more importantly) earth-elemental magic and countless more psynergy, djinn, and other abilities, Isaac has the potential to be a character that leaves everyone wondering why it took so long for him to join.


Concept: Tribute to Satoru Iwata

Chance: Abstain
It still barely feels real. It's just...did any of us two weeks ago think we'd be paying our respects to a man we all held in such high regard? I guess some things just...take you by surprise, no matter how well you think you know what's going on.

There're bound to be tributes, homages, shout outs, the works for Mr. Iwata in the coming months. Considering how much heart and soul he put into Nintendo and into the games he helped create and later oversaw the creation of, some of those tributes are bound to be found in games themselves. But for one to be added to Smash so long after the base game was released?

I don't know. I just don't know.

Want: 50%
You see...on one hand, Mr. Iwata was a brilliant man who met his end far too soon, and he deserves every amount of special thanks he gets. But on the other...I don't know if Smash is the right place for it.


Tiki Prediction: 4.63%
Another recurring Fire Emblem character...with less of a following than Anna and with everyone staunchly against more Fire Emblem content against her.

Prediction for the Music Moonstruck Blossom: 11.75%
This one'll come down to how likely everyone thinks a new Kirby stage is.


Nominations: Serperior x5


DLC/Sma5h talk will come in a later post.

 

[Kenith]

Want: 50%
You see...on one hand, Mr. Iwata was a brilliant man who met his end far too soon, and he deserves every amount of special thanks he gets. But on the other...I don't know if Smash is the right place for it.

Hm...
Yeah, that's a good point. Some people might consider a tribute to Iwata here inappropriate...

 

[BluePikmin11]

Because if you read what he meant in clear writing, you'll find no evidence that he considrs Pre-Pikmin franchises unworthy, only post Pikmin ones

Is "before" in the quote not enough? I guess I was overexaggerating a bit on unworthiness, but GS being absent in the statement of "big franchises like Animal Crossing, Brain Age, and Nintendogs" is something I raise a large eyebrow on and is a possible giveaway hint that he doesn't see GS as a franchise big enough to warrant playability.

... I don't need to point out why that argument doesn't work considering how it could have applied to every single character that didn't make it in. Really? That is a terrible argument and a huge fallacy.

Clarify please. Don't assume that I know.

Because there aren't any video game icons with low appeal enough to be considered unpopular and thus doesn't work as an example.

Just because Space Invader is an icon doesn't mean he's highly requested.
Just because Centipede is an icon doesn't mean he's highly requested.
Just because Frogger is an icon doesn't mean he's highly requested.
Just because Ryu is an icon doesn't mean he's highly requested. You argued specifically demand is the main focus, when I showed you proof that not all of them will be popular picks Smash fans want to see. We'll see some of the demanded, but I don't think it will be pure popular picks.

Being those things doesn't mean diddly squat if the character itself lack the potential to sell. The general fanbase aren't gullible enough to just buy any characters they don't know and care about. DLC is optional content which cost a lot of time money and effort to make and is completely optional to people. If people aren't interested in the character (hence the character being unpopular) then a lot of money will have been spend for no reasonable reward. And considering each character is sold seperately by default and how much they cost, that is absolutely not a smart business decision. What's so hard a concept to grasp about that? Of course unpopular characters are unlikely because they are unpopular and nothing Sakurai do could make them appealing enough to outweigh the costs of making an unpopular character DLC.

He made barely requested characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, Greninja, and Villager appealing enough characters to get people more inclined to buy the game. Why can't he make less requested characters appealing characters to buy as DLC? That is a possibility you can't ignore, and he has executed it quite well with previous reveal trailers. It doesn't make unpopular characters likely, but it certainly gives them an open shot.

 

[Skyblade12]

View attachment 63346

Sorry I'm late to the tragedy.

Probably for the better, though. I'm not going to continue it on my end(I did enough by kickstarting it in the first place) and simply contribute to @ Scamper52596 's mini-petition to @ colder_than_ice and not have the vote count. At least when that Geno incident happened, it was blatant trolling. Now it's just bias fueled rage towards the masses.

It's blatant trolling to explain my reasons in detai, including a strict mathematical breakdown of why I gave Isaac the rating I did?

 

[LIQUID12A]

It's blatant trolling to explain my reasons in detai, including a strict mathematical breakdown of why I gave Isaac the rating I did?

I told you I wasn't continuing and it's going to stay that way.

So stop before one of us says something that we can avoid saying outright.

 

[Skyblade12]

I told you I wasn't continuing and it's going to stay that way.

So top before one of us says something that we can avoid saying outright.

Something like "oh, this person's vote shouldn't matter because he is being mean"?! Where the **** has THAT rule been on every other page of this thread?

 

[False Sense]

He made barely requested characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, Greninja, and Villager appealing enough characters to get people more inclined to buy the game. Why can't he make less requested characters appealing characters to buy as DLC?

This comparison doesn't work (and we've been through this before). Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, and Greninja were all part of the base game; if you wanted to play the latest Smash experience, you had no choice but to have those characters as part of the complete package, whether you wanted them or not. DLC is fundamentally different, as now consumers have a choice on which parts of the game they want to spend money on. If they don't want a certain character, they don't have to have them, and since each new character costs more money, the consumer needs to have interest in the character to convince them it's worth it.

That's why popularly requested characters are ideal for DLC, because they are objectively the ones that will sell best.

 

[Delzethin]

He made barely requested characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, Greninja, and Villager appealing enough characters to get people more inclined to buy the game. Why can't he make less requested characters appealing characters to buy as DLC? That is a possibility you can't ignore, and he has executed it quite well with previous reveal trailers. It doesn't make unpopular characters likely, but it certainly gives them an open shot.

For the record, Villager was pretty highly requested, and Greninja was well liked but not on people's radars due to extenuating circumstances. If we had known character transformations were gone earlier than literally half an hour before Greninja's reveal, people would've had him as a near lock.

 

[BluePikmin11]

For the record, Villager was pretty highly requested, and Greninja was well liked but not on people's radars due to extenuating circumstances. If we had known character transformations were gone earlier than literally half an hour before Greninja's reveal, people would've had him as a near lock.

Proof of high requests? If it was an Animal Crossing character, people went for Tom Nook pre-2013. Not Villager. I know some were expecting it, but he wasn't actually highly wanted.

Sakurai was likely never aware of Greninja's popularity, because at the time he decided on the final roster when the concept of Greninja was just made, he didn't really have a fan base back then.

This comparison doesn't work (and we've been through this before). Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, and Greninja were all part of the base game; if you wanted to play the latest Smash experience, you had no choice but to have those characters as part of the complete package, whether you wanted them or not. DLC is fundamentally different, as now consumers have a choice on which parts of the game they want to spend money on. If they don't want a certain character, they don't have to have them, and since each new character costs more money, the consumer needs to have interest in the character to convince them it's worth it.

That's why popularly requested characters are ideal for DLC, because they are objectively the ones that will sell best.

It's ideal, but not 99% probable, that feels unrealistic with Sakurai directing character DLC. Sakurai himself said that asking for only popular characters in Smash doesn't excite him (back in the pre Brawl interview, to go from a philosophy that he had for 4 Smash games in a row to just popular characters really does not sit well with me. He'll lose what made Sakurai among one of more special video game directors in gaming.

If they don't want a certain character, they don't have to have them, and since each new character costs more money, the consumer needs to have interest in the character to convince them it's worth it.

And yeah, Sakurai can get people interested in buying the character, he knows how to do it, especially with the resources he has to make them appealing characters to buy.

 

[False Sense]

It's ideal, but not 99% probable, that feels unrealistic with Sakurai directing character DLC. Sakurai himself said that asking for only popular characters in Smash doesn't excite him (back in the pre Brawl interview, to go from a philosophy that he had for 4 Smash games in a row to just popular characters really does not sit well with me.

Again, though, DLC is different. This is a chance for them to appeal directly to fans, a fact that Sakurai appears to recognize considering:
-Three of the four DLC characters added thus far were noted to have been added due to being particularly popular amongst fans.
-The existence of a Ballot.
-Sakurai referring to future DLC as "fan service."

I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest that Sakurai's philosophy towards DLC characters may not be identical to his philosophy for normal characters that he expressed several years ago.

And yeah, Sakurai can get people interested in buying the character, he knows how to do it, especially with the resources he has to make them appealing characters to buy.

This is also faulty logic. This assumes that any character, regardless of who it is, can be made appealing to the general consumer, and thus, they can do whatever they want. While Sakurai can do that to an extent, he can also do the same for characters that people actually want, with much better fan reception and sales.

Arguments like "Sakurai can make any character appealing" and "fans will buy anything" are fundamentally flawed. These aren't justifications for adding less popular characters; they're excuses.

 

[Delzethin]

Sakurai was likely never aware of Greninja's popularity, because at the time he decided on the final roster when the concept of Greninja was just made, he didn't really have a fan base back then.

And how does that count toward a character being unpopular again? Greninja was an unknown and a risk, but Greninja also wasn't a known unpopular character.

It's ideal, but not 99% probable, that feels unrealistic with Sakurai directing character DLC. Sakurai himself said that asking for only popular characters in Smash doesn't excite him (back in the pre Brawl interview, to go from a philosophy that he had for 4 Smash games in a row to just popular characters really does not sit well with me. He'll lose what made Sakurai among one of more special video game directors in gaming.

...

And yeah, Sakurai can get people interested in buying the character, he knows how to do it, especially with the resources he has to make them appealing characters to buy.

You argue so strongly that he could do it...but why would he? When optional content that must be purchased separately has to appeal even more to the players than a surprise character in the base game would, we need proof that he would still throw in unexpected characters for the sake of it. As with before, you base your whole defense on the idea that your argument is self-evident.

 

[Smasher 101]

Not going to be able to explain like I wanted to...

Isaac's chances: 50%
Want: 100%

Iwata tribute chances: 20%
Want: 100%

Tiki prediction 5.28%
Moonstuck Blossom prediction: 15.32%

Nominations: Excitebiker x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

We should've discussed this back in the Unpopular day, you know. It's getting irrelevant to Isaac discussion.

Again, though, DLC is different. This is a chance for them to appeal directly to fans, a fact that Sakurai appears to recognize considering:
-Three of the four DLC characters added thus far were noted to have been added due to being particularly popular amongst fans.
-The existence of a Ballot.
-Sakurai referring to future DLC as "fan service."

I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest that Sakurai's philosophy towards DLC characters may not be identical to his philosophy for normal characters that he expressed several years ago.

The only evidence thus far is Lucas, Mewtwo, Roy, and the fan-service comment. And then there's Ryu who breaks that pattern of highly requested. He can take the chance, but I feel like that change is setting expectations too high, it's a pipe dream in general.

While Sakurai can do that to an extent, he can also do the same for characters that people actually want, with much better fan reception and sales.

He can, and he'll probably pay attention to that more with the ballot. Pre-ballot wise, it's entirely in his control and will.

And how does that count toward a character being unpopular again? Greninja was an unknown and a risk, but Greninja also wasn't a known unpopular character.

Greninja was non-existent to the public during the time of deciding the full roster, meaning he likely didn't take demand into account when he was considering a Pokemon from X/Y. It's that simple.

You argue so strongly that he could do it...but why would he? When optional content that must be purchased separately has to appeal even more to the players than a surprise character in the base game would, we need proof that he would still throw in unexpected characters for the sake of it. As with before, you base your whole defense on the idea that your argument is self-evident.

He wouldn't throw in random surprises for the sake of it, Sakurai has shown that he has more reasons that he added them in the roster back in the Villager and Wii Fit Trainer interview. He might add a character because there's a fanbase outside of Smash who would buy them and get interested in Smash more, or maybe they are from a franchise that's very popular among Nintendo fans, or finds unique characteristics that could mesh well in Smash, or they are a veteran that a fan-base (no matter how small) wants back to main again. It could be a combination of those things. Among the many choices I predicted in my DLC list, all of them of have plausible and legitimate reasoning for getting in.

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Isaac

Want: 95%. While I do want Isaac and think he deserves it, tehre are way too many anime like swordsman. And, I would still havve King K Rool above Isaac.

Chance: 50%. It could really go either way. I would say that he is second to King K Rool on the ballot, but honestly he has serious competition in the form of Inkling and Bandanna Dee.

 

[Kenith]

Not going to be able to explain like I wanted to...

Isaac's chances: 50%
Want: 100%

Iwata tribute chances: 20%
Want: 100%

Tiki prediction 5.28%
Moonstuck Blossom prediction: 15.32%

Nominations: Excitebiker x5

Nominations: Excitebiker x5

You're awesome.
Have you also been nominating them and I never realized?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Isaac
65% Chance
100% Want

Iwata Tribute
Abstain chance
100% Want

Nominating Excitebiker x 5

 

[NintenRob]

For crying out loud STOP ARGUING.

Why can't people just accept that people have a difference of opinion and that no matter how much you argue its not going to change what others think.

Even if someone is objectively wrong, it would be better just to ignore them so the rest of us don't have to put up with all this bickering just to see others ratings.

 

[LIQUID12A]

I feel like that change is setting expectations too high, it's a pipe dream in general.

You've put yourself at risk of being screwed over opinion-wise if it happens.

And a lot of users will agree, Blue, that your arguments are becoming stale.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ok, that's just my view on things. I didn't say my predictions were certain, because nothing is absolute. :D

 

[Skyblade12]

I'm having a lot of trouble browsing right now. Could someone link me the top ten Chance characters right now? I can't get through the OP.