Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[candyissweet]

As for SSB5, I'll just leave this here: I don't think transformations are coming back. I feel like making each character version an individual was a concept Sakurai preferred, especially when he said the 3DS limitations in a way benefited Smash. I also like no transformations because it gives people a more focused gameplay to use and I just feel the switching was kind of useless to do during battle.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Could=/= Actually is. And in the case of Animal Crossing, it didn't get a character not because it wasn't considered worthy, but because Sakurai felt it was too peaceful so I'm not sure why you brought that up.

Because him not being included as playable in Brawl and instead as an AT and not being mentioned as one the big Nintendo franchises is a point that he didn't consider Golden Sun a notable enough franchise to get a character, the point of AC being too peaceful is irrelevant to the argument since that franchise was mentioned to be one Nintendo's big franchises.

I know what it doesn't mean- catering to a minority of the Smash fanbase by making obscure characters few people want and without a strong fanbase in general. That is absoluetly not fanservice.

I'm not expecting any characters from obscure franchises like Harry or Nester, but that's for another argument.

And considering the literal definition of fanservice and the fact he has often repeated the fact he included Roy, Lucas and Mewtwo because of their popularity, fanservice clearly isn't implied to mean anything else. The only way to have fanservice in terms of character DLC is by including popular characters. Isaac, being a popular character among the Smash fanbase, clearly qualifies as fanservice. In that regards he does have somewhat a bigger shot. And the ballot existed only because Sakurai wanted to see what characters the fanbase wanted.

Then what about Ryu? He was not among the characters that was chosen not because of demand, but with Sakurai's will. With Ryu as evidence, there's an open chance that not all characters he adds as DLC will be based on pure high amount of requests. I guess you have your point with the ballot, but beyond being considered, Sakurai will still see the same issues with Isaac.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Then what about Ryu? He was not among the characters that was chosen not because of demand, but with Sakurai's will. With Ryu as evidence, there's an open chance that not all characters he adds as DLC will be based on pure high amount of requests. I guess you have your point with the ballot, but beyond being considered, Sakurai will still see the same issues with Isaac.

Ryu was just

one exception

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ryu was just

I doubt he'll make exceptions to unrepresented Nintendo franchises who Sakurai thinks haven't earned their playability. If the character is from an established franchise like DKC, then yeah I could see an exception, not for Golden Sun IMO.

 

[Scamper52596]

Roy was never a majorly iconic Nintendo character and he managed to get in purely based on Internet fan demands so I'm not really sure casual obscurity is the factor that is going to stop Isaac.

Regardless, Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

Really? You're going to make that argument with me even though I can easily just counter by saying that due to Roy being a Melee veteran, that automatically makes him more recognizable and popular among the general Smash fans? You're going to let it be that easy for me? Whatever, dude...

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

I doubt he'll make exceptions to unrepresented Nintendo franchises who Sakurai thinks haven't earned their playability. If the character is from an established franchise like DKC, then yeah I could see an exception, not for Golden Sun IMO.

I wasn't really defending Isaac in that post. My point was that Ryu could just be one exception among characters chosen by fan demand, like you said that Sakurai might make just one exception among characters chosen by his philosophy.

 

[BluePikmin11]

With Sakurai on board, there are probably multiple, multiple exceptions. ;9

 

[neohopeSTF]

I think Smash 5 will literally be Smash 4-2. Won't change the mechanics too much.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

With Sakurai on board, there are probably multiple, multiple exceptions. ;9

That really depends on how many DLC characters (discounting the ones we already have) we get. If we get 8-10 characters (which is unlikely), I could see him making some exceptions, but if we get 2-4 characters, I don't think were going to get many exceptions, especially after his comment "from now on, this will be fanservice" or something like that (don't remember how it was exactly worded).

 

[Skyblade12]

You're no better than that one guy who intentionally trolled by voting 100% for Geno once.

At the same time, this reeks of bias despite claiming the contrary. You're my friend, Sky, but I'm not going to abstain from calling you out.

Excuse me, check your facts again. I said I was countering the bias already in play. I never claimed to be providing an unbiased opinion myself.

In fact, my statement guarantees the opposite. If I were presenting an unbiased view, then I would be allowing the massive swings of the bias of others rule the voting.

As it is, one massively biased vote in favor cancels out one massively biased vote against, and the voting can continue without being unduly influenced by either. For as much as this matters, which is honestly not at all.

You're my friend, but you have a lot of trouble understanding my logic.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I did that to Muddy Mole last time in the original RTC when I was jealous of Sable getting 5% and Muddy Mole getting 20%. I wouldn't have done that if I were you.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Please let this day end soon already.

 

[The Light Music Club]

My bold prediction for Smash 5? Sakurai won't be back, Ridley will be playable.

Honestly Iwata was a big part in why Sakurai continued to help around with Nintendo, I feel like with his health problems, and Iwata gone, if Smash 5 comes out 2020 or later, which it probably will, he won't have as major a role in the franchise as he previously had.

Ice Climbers and Pokemon Trainer will be back. I still think ICs have a shot for DLC anyway.

 

[Skyblade12]

I did that to Muddy Mole last time in the original RTC when I was jealous of Sable getting 5% and Muddy Mole getting 20%. I wouldn't have done that if I were you.

Considering that I can never seem to come to this thread without seeing PAGES of text all focused around explaining to a single individual (and, oddly enough, always the same individual) just how wrong his arguments are, I'm perfectly fine with skewing the vote the way I want it to go. Since this entire thread is based on nothing but opinion, bias, and blatant fanboyism, I'm just participating to the fullest degree.

 

[Scamper52596]

Excuse me, check your facts again. I said I was countering the bias already in play. I never claimed to be providing an unbiased opinion myself.

In fact, my statement guarantees the opposite. If I were presenting an unbiased view, then I would be allowing the massive swings of the bias of others rule the voting.

As it is, one massively biased vote in favor cancels out one massively biased vote against, and the voting can continue without being unduly influenced by either. For as much as this matters, which is honestly not at all.

You're my friend, but you have a lot of trouble understanding my logic.

From what I've seen Isaac hasn't gotten lower than a 12.5% rating thus far, and the one who gave that rating also had solid and unbiased opinions to back that score up. This game doesn't work on your kind of logic. The game is supposed to be very opinion based with all of the participants giving their personal scores and thoughts toward the character in question's chances that will collectively be tallied up at the end of the day to give us the final average. There hasn't even been one unreasonable rating given to Isaac today, and I'm sorry but I'm going to urge @ colder_than_ice to not count your score because no character has a 100% chance of being DLC at this point in time, and your reasoning for giving Isaac that rating is totally uncalled for and ruins the point of the game.

 

[Skyblade12]

From what I've seen Isaac hasn't gotten lower than a 12.5% rating thus far, and the one who gave that rating also had solid and unbiased opinions to back that score up. This game doesn't work on your kind of logic. The game is supposed to be very opinion based with all of the participants giving their personal scores and thoughts toward the character in question's chances that will collectively be tallied up at the end of the day to give us the final average. There hasn't even been one unreasonable rating given to Isaac today, and I'm sorry but I'm going to urge @ colder_than_ice to not count your score because no character has a 100% chance of being DLC at this point in time, and your reasoning for giving Isaac that rating is totally uncalled for and ruins the point of the game.

"I don't like the way you voted, or your reasons for voting that way, therefore your vote shouldn't count".

Great, so I can do that to votes I think are unreasonable as well, right?

 

[Deleted member]

Excuse me, check your facts again. I said I was countering the bias already in play. I never claimed to be providing an unbiased opinion myself.

In fact, my statement guarantees the opposite. If I were presenting an unbiased view, then I would be allowing the massive swings of the bias of others rule the voting.

As it is, one massively biased vote in favor cancels out one massively biased vote against, and the voting can continue without being unduly influenced by either. For as much as this matters, which is honestly not at all.

You're my friend, but you have a lot of trouble understanding my logic.

The thing is, however, is that you are countering the bias... with bias.
I understand that you don't want Isaac's score to be mediocre, but the lowest we had was a 12.5% or something. Putting in a 100% means that without a doubt, Isaac will be in the game as DLC. Nothing will go against him; the only possibility in your eyes is that Isaac will be in the game.
However, that is one possibility that we can't accept. The truth is, Isaac is highly demanded, but his series is heavily dormant and has been dormant after the failure of Dark Dawn.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Because him not being included as playable in Brawl and instead as an AT and not being mentioned as one the big Nintendo franchises is a point that he didn't consider Golden Sun a notable enough franchise to get a character, the point of AC being too peaceful is irrelevant to the argument since that franchise was mentioned to be one Nintendo's big franchises.

You could say that about plenty of franchises that didn't get a playable character. None of those points are a legitimate argument for Sakurai thinking Isaac wans't worthy anymore than Sakurai thinking Little Mac wasn't worthy. Again, you're jumping to conclusions acting as if you know Sakurai's thought process regarding Golden Sun. And if we're going to use the amount of content a character had in a game, Roy had no representation in Smash 4. By your argument, this suggests that Sakurai didn't think Roy was worthy as a character, a thought process which has been then invalidated.

Sakurai not saying something about Golden Sun=/=proof of how little he thought of GS.

Then what about Ryu? He was not among the characters that was chosen not because of demand, but with Sakurai's will. With Ryu as evidence, there's an open chance that not all characters he adds as DLC will be based on pure high amount of requests. I guess you have your point with the ballot, but beyond being considered, Sakurai will still see the same issues with Isaac.

You're joking right? Ryu was a big name icon and a really popular video game character. Again, you skimmed over the part were I specifically noted characters that were popular, to which Ryu is. Ryu isn't remotely comparable to whatever obscure character with little support people might bring up for an obvious - namely, he is a popular character and thus is fanservice.

Really? You're going to make that argument with me even though I can easily just counter by saying that due to Roy being a Melee veteran, that automatically makes him more recognizable and popular among the general Smash fans? You're going to let it be that easy for me? Whatever, dude...

Being a Melee veteran =/= popular among Smash fans. This is proven by , who has no actual evidence for being popular among Smash fans and every single poll where he scores poorly for a veteran, being consistently beaten out by non-veteran characters like K. Rool, the Inklings, Toad, and yes.. Isaac. If Young Link, the main character of the biggest Zelda game of them all, was half as popular among Smash fans as Roy was, you'd think he do better than he does in ever unoffcial poll- yet there is a lot of stigma attached to Young Link due to the fact he would be a second Child Link and because people hate the idea of a "Third Link stealing a precious DLC slot from more deserving characters"™

Roy is not popular among Smash Bros fans because he is well known among them, but because of his appeal, which Young Link lacks.

 

[Skyblade12]

The thing is, however, is that you are countering the bias... with bias.

If I could counter bias by saying "please discard this individual's vote", I'd do that, but I didn't think that was fair.

If it turns out I'm wrong, though (as the request to discard MY vote seems to indicate), I'll happily change my rating in order to get rid of the offending vote.

I understand that you don't want Isaac's score to be mediocre, but the lowest we had was a 12.5% or something. Putting in a 100% means that without a doubt, Isaac will be in the game as DLC. Nothing will go against him; the only possibility in your eyes is that Isaac will be in the game.

I see all futures, and they all contain Isaac.

To be honest, I could give a fairly simple, mathematical reason for why I rate characters at particular numerical percentages. But I did that in the original RTC, and everyone complained that I was voting Chances too low because of it.

However, that is one possibility that we can't accept.

I really don't care what YOU can accept. It's not YOUR opinion.

The truth is, Isaac is highly demanded, but his series is heavily dormant and has been dormant after the failure of Dark Dawn.

First off, there is no indication that Dark Dawn was a failure. It was critically praised, and sold decently well, even if it never hit the spikes of the earlier games.

Secondly, so what? Do you know how long Duck Hunt has been dormant?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Duck Hunt is retro, though. Whilst I do believe GS still have a good shot at getting a new game, that comparison doesn't work as retro characters aren't chosen because of them having a future.

 

[Skyblade12]

Duck Hunt is retro, though. Whilst I do believe GS still have a good shot at getting a new game, that comparison doesn't work as retro characters aren't chosen because of them having a future.

Retro:
of or designating the style of an earlier time

Notice that no particular time is listed. Literally anything from the past can be retro. The GBA is two console generations ago, it can be considered retro at this point.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

But GS isn't, considering the last game it had was a year after Punch-Out!!! for the Wii.

 

[False Sense]

Isaac Chance: 35%

At this point, it's clear that Isaac is among the most demanded of potential DLC characters, as well as one of the more noteworthy Nintendo characters to not yet make it onto the roster. Combine that with the fact that he's bursting with potential, I think Isaac is one of the more likely possibilities for DLC.

Isaac Want: 100%

Isaac seems like he'd be a solid, fun addition to the roster that would please a ton of fans. I'm all for it.

 

[TallT]

From what I've seen Isaac hasn't gotten lower than a 12.5% rating thus far, and the one who gave that rating also had solid and unbiased opinions to back that score up. This game doesn't work on your kind of logic. The game is supposed to be very opinion based with all of the participants giving their personal scores and thoughts toward the character in question's chances that will collectively be tallied up at the end of the day to give us the final average. There hasn't even been one unreasonable rating given to Isaac today, and I'm sorry but I'm going to urge @ colder_than_ice to not count your score because no character has a 100% chance of being DLC at this point in time, and your reasoning for giving Isaac that rating is totally uncalled for and ruins the point of the game.

@ colder_than_ice I second this. Unless he changes his score, or at least gives an actual reason for said score.

 

[Skyblade12]

But GS isn't, considering the last game it had was a year after Punch-Out!!! for the Wii.

That's still in the past, ergo still technically retro.

Also, you're arguing that it's too recent for one categorization, and yet too dormant for another categorization. So where does Golden Sun fall, and what is wrong with that categorization that apparently bans it from consideration for DLC?

 

[IceAnt573]

Future Smash 5 Predictions: A new Fire Emblem character. Probably from FE16 since usually 3 Fire Emblem games are made in between each version of Smash (Melee to Brawl was FE6-10, Brawl to Smash 4 was 11-13).

A new Xenoblade character. I want to say Chronicles X, but I think there will be more games under the "Xenoblade" title between releases.

A new Pokemon character. Kinda feels obligatory. I mean what was the reasoning for including Greninja before X and Y was released?

If the Inklings don't get in as DLC for Smash 4, then they are pretty much guaranteed for Smash 5.

Possible: Sylux if those Metroid Prime sequels do end up happening.

 

[Skyblade12]

@ colder_than_ice I second this. Unless he changes his score, or at least gives an actual reason for said score.

I gave an actual reason, though I do appreciate that you prefer blocking people's voting rights to actually reading their posts. Since it's too difficult for you to trace back to the original post, however:

Isaac
Chance: 100% He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two.

If we are getting two characters from the ballot, I believe they will be K. Rool and Isaac. Simple, factual, and straightforward. If I thought there was a chance that we would be getting FEWER than two characters from the ballot, I'd rate Isaac lower. But I don't think there is, and I am not going to let it influence my vote.

And if we're really going to start discarding votes, this thread is about to become a LOT more fun.

You don't like the way I voted. Tough luck. I don't like the way a number of other people voted. I don't have any way to influence them or their votes though (except apparently calling to get their votes cancelled, which I will be quite happy to do).

So, do what I do: DEAL WITH IT.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey guys what's goin on this threa-

Err, nevermind, i just came back to nominate.
---------------------
Nominations:
Tetris stage:X5

 

[Deleted member]

If I could counter bias by saying "please discard this individual's vote", I'd do that, but I didn't think that was fair.

If it turns out I'm wrong, though (as the request to discard MY vote seems to indicate), I'll happily change my rating in order to get rid of the offending vote.

OBJECTION!
You don't think that saying to discard a vote is particularly fair, right? However, earlier before you said:

Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters.

So, technically, would this be unfair? In fact, the original RTC's rules stated that counter voting was illegal, which you just did to counter the lower scores for Isaac.

I see all futures, and they all contain Isaac.

Umm...

I really don't care what YOU can accept. It's not YOUR opinion.

It's not an opinion, it's a fact.
I could be wrong. Isaac can still be playable. But, saying that without a doubt that he will be playable is wrong to say.
Let me talk about the Ice Climbers. Back then, I saw a couple of 100%s for them on their first day. Back then, we still knew about the 3DS issues holding them back, but people denied the possibility of that being the case. 300 days later, I saw lower scores because most realized that their major issues were holding them back despite being veterans.
Now, I am comparing a veteran with a newcomer, but the point still stands. We can't block out the doubt in our minds that Isaac has some issues holding him back.

First off, there is no indication that Dark Dawn was a failure. It was critically praised, and sold decently well, even if it never hit the spikes of the earlier games.

Secondly, so what? Do you know how long Duck Hunt has been dormant?

Still, it was a major dent in the franchise. Everywhere I hear about Isaac, the topic of Dark Dawn comes up... it's still a roadblock.

And Duck Hunt, it's a retro series with an iconic peripheral being used. It hasn't had any recent games... unlike Golden Sun with Dark Dawn. The situations aren't comparable in my eyes.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

That's still in the past, ergo still technically retro.

Also, you're arguing that it's too recent for one categorization, and yet too dormant for another categorization. So where does Golden Sun fall, and what is wrong with that categorization that apparently bans it from consideration for DLC?

In a murky area. Which makes it something of a wild-card and thus down to whether or not Sakurai himself personally believes GS has a future or not. That said, consideirng Ultra Smash will be released this autumn, if Camelot ends up working on a new GS game and Sakurai is aware of this whilst working on DLC during this time, this factor would be pointless but we wouldn't know either way.

 

[Scamper52596]

"I don't like the way you voted, or your reasons for voting that way, therefore your vote shouldn't count".

Great, so I can do that to votes I think are unreasonable as well, right?

No, you can't. There isn't two sides to your coin. You're voting to nullify a couple people's votes who aren't voting to nullify anyone's vote. The people who gave a lower score are genuinely giving that score because that's how they feel about Isaac's chances; therefore, their score adheres perfectly to the context of the game. Your score doesn't have anything to do with what you think Isaac's actual chances are, and instead is meant to skew the ratings purposely so that you feel the score is acceptable. I don't agree with more than half of the final averages of the characters we've rated, but I have always given my honest impressions as to what I personally feel a character's chances are at becoming DLC because I enjoy participating in this game and don't want the final verdict to be greatly influenced one way or another due to my selfish opinion of what other people are rating.

Being a Melee veteran =/= popular among Smash fans. This is proven by , who has no actual evidence for being popular among Smash fans and every single poll where he scores poorly for a veteran, being consistently beaten out by non-veteran characters like K. Rool, the Inklings, Toad, and yes.. Isaac. If Young Link, the main character of the biggest Zelda game of them all, was half as popular among Smash fans as Roy was, you'd think he do better than he does in ever unoffcial poll- yet there is a lot of stigma attached to Young Link due to the fact he would be a second Child Link and because people hate the idea of a "Third Link stealing a precious DLC slot from more deserving characters"™

Roy is not popular among Smash Bros fans because he is well known among them, but because of his appeal, which Young Link lacks.

I don't see how that's supposed to change my opinion at all. Roy was chosen to be brought back as DLC, like you said, because he has appeal. An appeal he already had due to being a veteran. Sure, Young Link doesn't have that appeal (probably because we already have a Young Link on the roster), but do you think Roy would have had the same appeal if he wasn't on any previous Smash roster? More people are familiar with him than they are with Isaac which makes Roy DLC a much safer bet. That's what I mean when I say generally recognizable. Not that it means a character is more popular, but because more people will be inclined to purchase a character if they're familiar with said character.

 

[Skyblade12]

No, you can't. There isn't two sides to your coin. You're voting to nullify a couple people's votes who aren't voting to nullify anyone's vote. The people who gave a lower score are genuinely giving that score because that's how they feel about Isaac's chances; therefore, their score adheres perfectly to the context of the game. Your score doesn't have anything to do with what you think Isaac's actual chances are, and instead is meant to skew the ratings purposely so that you feel the score is acceptable. I don't agree with more than half of the final averages of the characters we've rated, but I have always given my honest impressions as to what I personally feel a character's chances are at becoming DLC because I enjoy participating in this game and don't want the final verdict to be greatly influenced one way or another due to my selfish opinion of what other people are rating.

Actually, I did state quite clearly my reasoning for including Isaac as a 100%. I've posted it twice now. It's nice of you to skip that part you find inconvenient and go straight to the part you hate just so that you have a pretext for discarding my vote, but I'm afraid it's not a very valid argument.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You could say that about plenty of franchises that didn't get a playable character. None of those points are a legitimate argument for Sakurai thinking Isaac wans't worthy anymore than Sakurai thinking Little Mac wasn't worthy. Again, you're jumping to conclusions acting as if you know Sakurai's thought process regarding Golden Sun.

Duck Hunt is retro, though. Whilst I do believe GS still have a good shot at getting a new game, that comparison doesn't work as retro characters aren't chosen because of them having a future.

Contradictory much when you use Little Mac as a counter argument. Retros don't work as an example.

And if we're going to use the amount of content a character had in a game, Roy had no representation in Smash 4. By your argument, this suggests that Sakurai didn't think Roy was worthy as a character, a thought process which has been then invalidated.

Difference is that Roy is from an already established franchise who originally got in Smash because he was feasible as a last minute clone. We are talking about new franchises here.

Sakurai not saying something about Golden Sun=/=proof of how little he thought of GS.

The decline in Golden Sun content certainly says something of how much of an important priority GS is to Sakurai.

You're joking right? Ryu was a big name icon and a really popular video game character. Again, you skimmed over the part where I specifically noted characters that were popular, to which Ryu is. Ryu isn't remotely comparable to whatever obscure character with little support people might bring up for an obvious - namely, he is a popular character and thus is fanservice.

He may be a big icon to many, but his actual demand in getting in Smash Bros before the leak came was pretty bare. Even the support thread was bare in replies because many believed that the fighting game characters quote was detrimental to his chances. Sakurai can add a character whose demand is low, and Ryu is among one of those examples.

popular within video games =/= highly requested in Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

And i thought that Bayonetta's day was chaotic......

 

[Icedragonadam]

And i thought that Bayonetta's day was chaotic......

Roy's was pretty bad too.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I don't see how that's supposed to change my opinion at all. Roy was chosen to be brought back as DLC, like you said, because he has appeal. An appeal he already had due to being a veteran. Sure, Young Link doesn't have that appeal (probably because we already have a Young Link on the roster), but do you think Roy would have had the same appeal if he wasn't on any previous Smash roster? More people are familiar with him than they are with Isaac which makes Roy DLC a much safer bet. That's what I mean when I say generally recognizable. Not that it means a character is more popular, but because more people will be inclined to purchase a character if they're familiar with said character.

Maybe, but you're forgetting one important thing- it is the factor of an online ballot that Sakurai uses to gauge fan demand among the online Smash Bros fanbase. Isaac being popular on the Internet among Smash Bros fans is only advantegous. Whilst we don't know how well he is actually doing in the poll, every unofficial ballot poll taken with a substantial amount of votes in the West has him doing incredibly well, so there is a good chance he is doing well in the ballot.

 

[candyissweet]

Not sure if I should join the argument or not... :/

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Not sure if I should join the argument or not... :/

Depends on if you're able to handle the heat.

Roy's was pretty bad too.

Roy's was worse than this.

@ BluePikmin11 , can you fix up your post please? It makes me hard for me to quote it.

 

[Scamper52596]

Actually, I did state quite clearly my reasoning for including Isaac as a 100%. I've posted it twice now. It's nice of you to skip that part you find inconvenient and go straight to the part you hate just so that you have a pretext for discarding my vote, but I'm afraid it's not a very valid argument.

Nope. I read it. This is what I read...
"He's one of the two most likely characters from the ballot, and I don't think there is any way we're not getting at least two."
One of the two most likely characters doesn't mean one of the two confirmed characters, which is what a 100% rating means.
Also this...
"Plus, I have to counter the typical bias and hypocrisy coming from some voters."
Which is a confession that you're purposely skewing the votes which completely ruins the point of the game.

 

[candyissweet]

WAIT SOMEONE SUMMARIZE WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON PLS