Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
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415
Corrin
Chance- 3%
Could be a big thing here soon. We'll see. Not sure how much support there is, actually, and the game will probably come too late. And we already got Roy.
Want- Abstain
'Cause I really don't know.

Secondary Ballot
Chance- 2%
There's been no suggestion that this might happen. And if there was one, it would force the team to choose with a set of specific characters. I don't think they want to be stuck in a box. I feel like they'd rather hand pick some relatively popular characters that they want, not show us any data, and make it sound like they were the top dogs.
Want- 25%
This would be great! They wouldn't be able to keep picking only recent or bizarre characters! No, no, no, they'd finally be forced to pick characters that we actually want!
… But then there's always the possibility that the great intellectual community that is the internet will vote in someone completely stupid.
Shoot. I'm not really sure… but I'd lean towards Nintendo's judgment.

Mother 3 Stage Predictions- 5%
No DLC after Ballot Predictions- 28%
Nominations:

Porky x5
 

Troykv

Smash Master
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Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,533
Kamui/Corrin

Chance: Abstain

I pass to Rate this guy/gal

Want: 0%

In other circunstances I could care about his/her inclusion... But see with my own eyes Fates, and him as the major rep from the New FE New Style (Azura al least don't remember me all the time that FE14 is Waifu Emblem now with Amie)... Personal Reasons that don't actually are related with his/her potential.

Secondary Ballot:

Chance: 10%

Possible, but doesn't really have some special reason to this.

Want: 50%

I'm okay with this idea

Predictions

Mother 3 Stage: 9.5%
No DLC after Ballot ends: 50% (wait... After October or after the Ballot Characters?)

Nominations:

Rerate! Micaiah x5
 
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Aetheri

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I don't know, it's been a long time since that was nominated. I think they might have meant trophies becoming a newcomer DLC a opposed to a veteran character like Mewtwo.
Ah, If it's specifically a newcomer, then that makes a bit more sense...I still think it is pretty much confirmed as the line between a veteran and a newcomer is pretty thin considering these are simple trophies as opposed to other roles in game...either way it seems to be a ways off before it'll get rated and may likely get purged by then anyways...

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Corrin

Chance: 1%
The avatar from the new FE Fates...People are pretty much worn out of fire Emblem content in this game already...Roy has already arrived for DLC and most fans want to see other franchises get some love, especially since Fire Emblem is one of three franchises to receive two newcomers in this game...
Corrin may have some big cometiton with their co-star Azura especially since she has a weapon that no other Fire Elbem character, or any character on the current Smash roster, is currently using...though they can turn into a Dragon but that's pretty much going to be saved for their final smash I reckon...

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Want: 1%
Between Corrin and Azura, I'd take Azura....between Any Fire Emblem character and any of the other franchises (Zelda, Metroid for example) I'd take the other franchise...Turning into a dragon would be cool, but I probably won't be too excited to see another Fire Emblem character join in...

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Concept: Secondary Ballot

Chance: 1%
It is very unlikely that they will hold another Ballot to determine "winners" from this ballot...sure it's a good way to narrow down the choices but at the same time, it ruins the sense of control the fans have especially since a lot of fans would be disappointed to see some of their character not making the cut, before they're even revealed...and may alienate those who aren't quite into the top choices...

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Want: 0%
Why? Why would we need a second ballot? The whole point of this ballot is for the fans to submit their favourite characters for consideration. It is completely pointless to run a second ballot as it not only rejects basically 95% of submitted characters right from the hop, but it also unecessarily extends the DLC period since Sakurai and co. will have to wait until the second ballot's deadline has passed before working on those characters, especially since they could easily start picking characters from the current ballot, right now!
No second ballot please...it is completely redundant and pointless...and makes this current ballot nothing more than moot...

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Prediction:
Concept: Mother 3 Stage: 3.2%
I feel like we would've gotten it upon Lucas's arrival...However I would think New Pork City making a return may be a possiblity as well as Fourside from melee...

Concept: No DLC after Ballot: 16.4%?????
Is this referring to us not receiving any DLC after the October deadline? or is it simply referring to no additional DLC taken fromt eh ballot? Some of these concepts need more clarification, because if it's the former then it's almost 0% as Sakurai will likely choose a few characters around the ballot's deadline to begin working on them throughout 2016 so as to have as many options as possible since some character may not be suggested until near the deadline and it would be a missed opportunity, and if the former then it's almost 100% since the point of the ballot is for the team to select characters that the fans want based on their feedback, as well as the fact that development will likely stop once they no longer take the fans input from the ballot...although they may very well provide a final special DLC marking the end of Smash 4's development cycle or something...I dunno...

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Nominations:
Using my other nom noms again....
Concept: New Metroid Prime Stage x6
Concept: Iwata Trophy/Tribute x2
Concept: Tetris Stage x2
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
@Speedwagon and @ WeirdChillFever WeirdChillFever win for respectively Delphox and Unpopular DLC Character.

AWW YEAH I WON WAHAHAHA!
Well anyways.....

Corrin (the main character from Fates)
Chance:5%
Same reasons as Azura.

Want:0%
If i gave Azura, an unique lance wielding, water-bending songtress a big fat 0% in want just because of the fact that she was another FE character, that means that i am really burnout with the FE series when it comes to characters:glare: (all i wanted when it came to FE characters was the Brawl duo and Roy....).

--------------------
Another Ballot:1%
I don't see it happening, but as i said, i don't like giving 0's in chance most of the time.

Want:0%
Seems unnecesary to me.
EDIT:i readed sid-cada's post once again, and it only makes more against this. Could you imagine going trough the same shenanigans again with fake leaks, bandwagons and bitterness between fanbases, i can, and lemme tell ya, it's not pretty.

---------------------
Predictions:
Mother 3 stage:2.12%
No DLC after ballot:i got no clue.wat%
--------------------
Nominations:
Isaac Rerate:X8
Concept: Tetris Stage x2
I thought that i was the only one nominating this.
 
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Delzethin

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It seems overall results were...a mixed bag. There were a lot more abstains than I figured there'd be, a decent amount of people who had no strong feelings one way or the other. There also wasn't nearly as much hatred of the concept as I was worried would happen...so I guess it's something.

Anyone who's interested, check out the thread. Anyone still neutral or skeptical...keep your eyes and ears open for the time being.

For now...let's move on.

--
(Warning: Music is from Fire Emblem Fates. It's early game music, though, and it was in the Treehouse livestream.)

Corrin

Chance: 4%
The other protagonist of Fire Emblem Fates, Corrin is rather unusual among them. In more Fire Emblem games, the main lord, the avatar character, and the person who can turn into a dragon are all different characters, but Corrin is all three! That there is what'd keep him from being another generic addition: with the known ability to not only shapeshift but do so only to specific parts of him at a time, Corrin is no ordinary swordsman...or swordswoman. Either or.

But like Azura before him, Corrin's biggest problems are extenuating circumstances. Fire Emblem has five characters now, and all but the most dedicated fans of the series have lost interest in getting a sixth. That lack of support is hurt even greater by the fact that Fire Emblem Fates won't be released outside Japan until early next year, long after the Smash Ballot closes.

Sorry...even though you could be interesting, you've found yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Maybe you'll have a better chance when Smash 5 comes around?

Want: 40%
Corrin is a little easier to read than Azura, if anything because his powers were more heavily featured in prerelease. Even though we're getting heavy on swordsmen, combining it with dragon attacks would let him--or her--stand out.

Well, that and shapeshifters are cool. >_>


Concept: Secondary Smash Ballot

Chance: 10%
A second ballot after the first to narrow down candidates? That's hard to predict. Thing is, we've seen nothing to hint toward their decision process at all. We don't know how they'll handle the results--though based on the fact that they have no way to prevent people circumventing the rules, it probably won't be solely on vote count. The fact that we've seen no hint of more fan voting makes me question this.

...That...and to be honest, it sounds like a bad idea.

Want: 10%
I heard a quote once from someone. I forget who it was. It went something like "The fans don't always know exactly what they want."

Have you seen the way support has ebbed and flowed for some characters? The smallest of things can have a strong influence on the following some of them have. Twitter darlings Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Banjo & Kazooie have fallen off after the first few weeks. The Inklings gained momentum as Splatoon neared release, only to lose what they gained soon after. Meanwhile, once Ryu seemed like a lock, what was at first a tepid following gained massive support overnight!

There's such a wild difference in support levels between months as what seemed like a good or bad idea suddenly feels like the opposite. Sometimes it doesn't feel that way until you can look back. As fans, sometimes we struggle to see the full picture, and because of that I'd rather the developers handled the process themselves than leave it in the hands of a group whose opinions change so radically over such a short time.


Prediction for the Concept of a Mother 3 Stage: 12.75%
Individual new stages are hard to predict...but the fact that one didn't come with Lucas will really hurt.

Prediction for the Concept of No Characters Beyond the Smash Ballot:
...Here we go again. What does this one mean? Didn't they imply they'd be pulling most future content from Smash Ballot ideas?


Nominations:
It seems Brawler is busy with something else. Good thing I just remembered someone else I was interested in.

Tiki x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Corrin

Chance - 2% - Still a bit too new, but compared to Azura he's the actual protagonist, I'd give him the larger shot. Being a dragon also helps.

Want - 40% - Basically the same as Azura, some interest but would rather wait.


Secondary Ballot

Chance - 10% - Possible, I can see it happening. While once I thought about it, I just could not shake it from my thoughts, hence the nominations. I thought about it, though considering how low on time we have, it's not looking likely.

Want - 60% - Others see it as a waste of time, I see it as a way for pepole who couldn't get a popular character a second vote to help contribute more.


Predictions

Mother 3 Stage - 8.36% - Not coming with Lucas is a bit of a blow.

No DLC after ballot - 0.13% - Uh... wouldn't they need to calculate the results first?


Nominations
Stage from Newer Kirby Games X5
 
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Oh no... ANOTHER Fire Emblem character? :drsad:

Corrin chances: 0.29%
As much as Nintendo is promoting Fire Emblem Fates as one of their strong recent titles (it did better than Awakening at launch in Japan) this is something I don't see happening. There are many much older characters who would be much higher priority and FE14 contents is much more likely to be implemented as non-intrusive aesthetic feature like a Mii costume maybe bundled with a trophy, similar to Splatoon.

And while we have precedence of a potential promotional Fire Emblem character (Roy in Melee), this is most likely irrelevant. Roy was chosen in Melee because Sakurai wanted to add easy clones in order to have a bigger roster without having to delay the game too much, and Roy happened to be Sakurai's favourite choice for a Marth clone after he saw insider concept arts at IS. The promotion part of the thing was only an afterthought at most.

... and yeah, that's copy-pasted from my Azura chances rating.

Corrin disapproval: 100% (or 0% want)
These two parodic pics sum it up:
And for more serious explanation, I'll link my posts to my Micaiah rating and my Azura rating; my want score explanation for both of these pretty much explain why I don't want any more Fire Emblem character, and how Corrin would blatantly scream MUH RELEVANCE RECENCY!!!!1!1!! I don't care if there's moveset potential, please no.

(And btw, "Whenever FE15 is announced, you're fired!" is not a reason why I think Corrin and Azura shouldn't be playable, it's actually a way to put emphasis on the ridiculous of the picture, because you know, when FE15 will be announced, they'll no longer be "relevant"... ahah.)

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Secondary ballot chances: 0.4%
I highly doubt it. Once Nintendo gathers all the data from the Ballot, I think they'll send them directly to Namco Bandai, then Sakurai will use this data as part of how he will chose the DLC characters. I really don't see a public ballot consisting of a defined list of characters being a thing.

Secondary ballot want: 0%
I trust Sakurai to chose characters from the Ballot's data without having for him to ask "Who's the most wanted among the most wanted?", and I don't want to see a closed shortlist where you can only vote for those in it. And overall, I don't see the point of this. No thanks.

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Mother 3 stage prediction: 13.82%
Not coming alongside Lucas is kind of a big deal.

No character after the Ballot prediction (this is your day @Captain Hotcakes): 5%
A shot in the dark...

Nominating:
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x5
 

Fire Rider

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Hello!

Corrin
Chance 10%
Want 10%
Could be a filling character in Smash it's enough of FE reps

Second Ballot
Chance 5%
Other after october, I think that couldn't be possible
Want 20%
Well is Nintendo not Capcom, no more DLCs please only the planned and the ballot characters.

Predictions:
Mother 3 Stage 5%
No characters after ballot 70%
Could be enough but maybe after the ballot 1 or 2 characters are ok
 
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ZeroSoul

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I'd like to apologize in advance for the massive wall of text.

Corrin:
(huehuehue)

Chances: 5%
The main character of Fire Emblem Fates, He/She's got some demand, not very much, but happens to have Sakurai bias on their side. Their series is hilariously overrepresented, to a point where it becomes near impossible within logical reasoning to give them a high chance score, until you factor in Mr.Sakurai who loves Fire Emblem and how unpredictable he can be sometimes.

Want: -100% (0%)
I do not like the idea of Corrin making it, not one bit. Fire Emblem has 5 reps as of now, 3 of which are fully unique characters, and two that are clones, the exact same situation as Zelda, despite not even breaking 17 Million sales. It's a bit ridiculous, no? Now, I'm not saying "Guys, let's cut all the FE reps next game!!!111!!!!!", but instead, I think we should have it be so that no more are added, for at least a few games, or until this whole representation fiasco settles itself. Once again, what makes Fire Emblem so much more special than everyone else? All the arguments for it being justified I've seen basically boil down to either "Fire Emblem isn't big yet, but it should be, so we'll make it more famous!" or "Fire Emblem has many unique characters!", to both of which I'd like to raise counterpoints.

To Fire Emblem needs more fame: I'd like to point out, that you can say this about literally any other franchise, but for some reason it's only this one franchise that this seems to be applied to. If this is to be considered a legitimate argument then what stops me from saying "Kirby should be more famous, it's quality is superior to the others, it deserves seven reps!"? That's right, absolutely nothing does, which is why this shouldn't be used as a legitimate argument, because it's basically a free pass card that applies to everyone, it doesn't make any one franchise more special than any other one.


To Fire Emblem having more unique characters: This is a often told justification as to why Fire Emblem has so many reps, but when you stand back for a bit, it stops making sense. Sure, it has more unique characters, but why should these ones get in before all the others? What makes it so that getting another FE character in is so much more important than getting say, a unique Metroid character instead? It's not like we're out of unique characters to get in smash, heck even in Kirby alone, I can name 3 potential candidates, while series like Mario and Pokemon have utter boatloads of unique characters in them.

It just really grinds my gears that Fire Emblem has gotten so much special attention, and franchises like DK have been left to rot in terms of content, for seemingly no reason. It just feels rather rude, to all the fans of those neglected franchises, to give it any more attention before them.


I'd also like to make it clear that I have nothing against Fire Emblem, but I just am against it being raised on some magical pedestal on the same level as Zelda, and higher than DK, Metroid, and Kirby.


Secondary Ballot:

Chances: 7% I don't really see why Nintendo would see a reason to conduct another poll, but they've surprised me in the past before.

Want: 0% I don't think I quite get the point.

Predictions: Mother 3 stage: 4%
No characters after ballot: 9%

Nominations: Jirachi x 5
 
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Not Azura:
Chance:
10%
I believe I gave the same rating to Azura

Want: 0%
Not Azura.
Azura has waterbending, lancing, singing and dancing.
Corrin has swordplay (wohoo) and dragon-transformation.


BOTH have Dragon's Vein.

I don't want a random dragon dude with a moveset that belongs to Tiki either way.


Second Bananallot:
Chance:
1%
With no signs pointing to it, Sakurai being hella secretive and the probable fact there won't be a "winner" leads me to believe that this is just a wonky fan-idea.

Want: 50%
This would mean there was only one "winner" being made, but the idea of insight on what characters Sakurai picked sensles my tinglies.

Mother 3: 6.4%
No characters after ballot: 5.3%

Nabbit x10
 

DJ3DS

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Corrin:

Chance - 0%

Not going to beat around the bush. This is a new character from an unreleased game who should not have the popularity to win the ballot. Including them would be contrary to everything I believe about the ballot and so I don't believe they have any chance of happening.

Want - 0%

I would be personally insulted to see an unreleased flavour of the month from a series which has already had a DLC character get in over some of the names who've been trying to get in 2 or 3 games in a row. It doesn't help that I simply don't like Fire Emblem either.

Secondary Ballot:

Chance - 5%

I don't see it happening, but not impossible.

Want - 100%

Another ballot would be more characters so I don't really see a drawback.
 

Xeno610

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The Directory has been updated.

Corrin
Chance:
1%

I'll copy and paste what I said on Azura's day for this one:
Azura / Aqua
Chance:
1%

A bit less than Cross and Elma, two characters who also come from a series represented in Smash but come from a game released after Smash 4.
Azura's case is much different. We don't know if Sakurai was even aware of this game's existence while making Smash 4 (but I have a slight feeling that he did...). Now, we already have 5 FE characters thanks to Roy, which is pretty bad considering that people are sick of Fire Emblem representation and it getting as many characters as Zelda.
Now, I can't give a 0% because I can't deny the possibility of Nintendo and IS wanting to use Smash to promote the game. Still, if that's the case, she might have to compete with Kamui / Corrin. Still, I am very doubtful on this possibility.
Want: 70%
Now I rather wait for the game before I say that I really want a character for Smash to see if I like them or not. That still holds true for Corrin, but less so in a way. When I first saw the avatars, I really liked their design and that alone got me interested.
I can't give a full 100% because I don't know about them just yet, so I don't know if I like them or not yet.

Secondary Ballot
Chance and Want:
Double Zeroes

For Chance, it doesn't seem like a thing for Nintendo and Sakurai to do.
For Want, I find it unnecessary.

Mother 3 Stage Prediction: 3.91%
Well, there's New Pork City.
No Characters After Ballot Prediction: 4.44%
What an evil concept.

Nominations: Guile's Theme 5x
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Corrin/Kamui

Chance: 1%
They're in a similar situation to Cross and Elma - both from recently released games that already have newcomers in Smash 4. The thing is - people think Fire Emblem has enough content compared to several other franchises, so it wouldn't feel right for Corrin/Kamui to be added when there are series that are well-deserving of a newcomer now.

Want: Abstain.
I don't have any connection to Corrin/Kamui myself (trying to stay a little bit of a distance from FE 14 until the official translation as to avoid spoilers) but I don't think they're worth including in Smash Bros at this point. True, having some sort of half-dragon-deer transformation and whatever other skills they could bring would be interesting, but after Roy, that's all I want from the Fire Emblem series for this game.

Secondary Ballot:
Chance and Want: 0% - I think it'd be somewhat cheating to have voted for so many characters, but have them voted again just for the sake of inclusion when something akin to perhaps the thousands of votes that were sent in for King K. Rool and Isaac are just turned aside when they already speak powerful voices already.

Mother 3 Stage: 18% - Aside from New Pork City, I've little clue as to what other iconic locations Mother 3 has to offer.

Nominations: Isaac (Golden Sun) X5
 

JackerX

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Corrin

Chances : 7%

Want : 100%

Being one who could see 100+ same-series fighters and remain happy as hell, Corrin is definitely on my top most wanted DLC. Him and :4robinm: in 1 game sounds like a good deal to me ( aside from Fates itself ). Chances are harmed because anti-FireEmblem repping users have a louder voice ( if they weren't loud before Roy, they are now ).

2nd Ballot

Chances : 56%

Want : 100%

Mother 3 Stage - 6.78
No More Fighters after Ballot 1.20

Nomming Nom nom Nom

Galacta Knight X5
 
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FalKoopa

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CORRIN/KAMUI:
CHANCE: 0%
FE: Fates seems to have been a hit in Japan, breaking Awakening's sales records, which means there could some support brewing up. Though Fire Emblem as it stands has a lot on its plate already, and I think he would better be saved for the next instalment.

WANT: 5%
Although I am a FE fanm I think it would be unfair to other franchises if he got in. I can wait.​

2nd BALLOT:
CHANCE AND WANT: 0%
Just... why? What's wrong with the current ballot that we would need another one? What purpose will it serve? And lastly, why would the results be any different from the current ballot? It looks entirely pointless.
:231:
 

LIQUID12A

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Corrin(na)

Chance: 4%

Don't worry, these are the easiest to rate. Sure, it comes at the expense of the groaning of many poor souls, but hey, the day is quick and painless.

----

As an established protagonist, Corrin would likely have priority over Azura in the event that Fates were chosen for a candidate. Fates isn't even out in the West yet, so an entire demographic hasn't gotten used to them yet, and when it does, the ballot will be long past over.

Want: Abstain

It's not that I don't like the series or the character, it's just that I'm fine with everything FE has at this point, so I'm really undecided on this one...

Secondary ballot

Double zeroes

Unnecessary.

Mother 3 Stage: 5%
No characters after ballot: 10%

Nominate: Concept: Metroid Prime Stage x5
 
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Corrin
Chance 0%
another FE character that has yet to be released in America. not much to say here

Want 35%
I would love to see some transformations from FE characters but I would prefer Lyn, Chrom, or Anna before him/her.

2nd ballot
chance 0%
The ballot was made and advertised with the purpose to VOTE FOR WHO YOU WANTED. it makes no sense to go "alright you voted for who you wanted from all of nintendo, but we're going to ignore that vote for this small group of characters"

want
0%
it would be really really silly.

predictions
mother 3 stage 7.5%
no more ballot characters 4.3%

noms
Iwata tribute 2 (thanks for the fusion)
next smash has new director 3
 

Laniv

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1,050
Corrin:

Chance: 0%
"Oh, great, more Kid Icarus Fire Emblem!" -Fans

Want: Abstain
I'll wait until his/her game comes out.

Secondary Ballot:

Chance and Want: 0%
I don't think it's really needed.

Prediction for Mother 3 stage: 4% Chance, 52% Want
Prediction for no post-ballot characters: 19% Chance, 75% Want

Nominate Isabelle x 5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Corrin
...so I had to look that up in several places, and I didn't find anything more exciting than a porphyrin-esque ring before I found out he was from FE and I should therefore put 'Fire Emblem' in the search term. Let's just let the fact that Google thinks that the macrocyclic chelating group of vitamin B12 is more important than this guy sink in.

Good? That gives a clue about 'muhrelevance'...

As from Micah's day...
ANOTHER Fire Emblem character...

Chance: 1%, Want: 0%
Look, just see all the arguments for Anna, and then take away the recurrence. This is the battle of Nintendo's All-Stars, not Fire Emblem's All-Stars
I'd make an exception for Azura since she at least looks unique. This one not so much.
Secondary Ballot
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
As if it didn't seem crazy enough now...
I don't think they're going to pick the top character necessarily. These are all ideas for DLC, and even for 5mash (so don't let a 'deconfirmation' stop you from voting, since now you're hurting them for future games as well), so they'll just look at the characters who have gotten several votes, and decide who fits best.

Let them just make characters after the ballot...
Mother Stage Prediction: 5.5%
Nothing after Ballot: 80.7% (I assume this means that they decide characters from the ballot, make them once the ballot ends, and then make no more thereafter...)

Nominate: Tag-team Relay mode x5

PS: @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice , do you need help with the nominations? I could keep track of them if you need some help with that.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Corrin
15% Chance
100% Want
I would have rated Azura 20% Chance, missed her day. I just see a few (1-3) promotional characters likely. Maybe some characters like Sceptile or Dixie whose game has passed, but is still relevent and sells, or ones for now or the Future, like Fates characters, or Cross or elma.
As for Want, its a manakete style character, that would help with a unique moveset. Which I would want. Though I would be infinitely more happy with Azura.

Second Ballot
Abstaining

Nominating Pichu x 5
 
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Corrin's Chance: 5%
A brand-new character with minimal support, if any. Couple that with the fan consensus that Fire Emblem has enough characters and there's just no reason to add Corrin.

Corrin's Want: 0%
The last thing Smash Bros needs is yet another Fire Emblem swordsman. I wouldn't be surprised if Corrin was mostly clone potential. If the series is to get another character, which it shouldn't in this game, it should be something far more unique.

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Second Ballot's Chance: 0%
Why hold another ballot? The one that is running will provide enough info about who is wanted and who is not that will last this game's lifespan. If we're talking about a ballot years into the future after opinions have changed, it'd make more sense. But as it is now, it'd be pretty redundant.

Second Ballot's Want: 0%
Sure, I guess another ballot would mean more DLC choices, but it just seems unnecessary.
 

RobinOnDrugs

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I'd give Corrin the same ratings as I did for Azura. He would be nice to have, but has a very low chance due to being too new.
 

Autumn ♫

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I'm really not used to these English names for FE:Fates, so I'll just call him Kamui.
Kamui:
Chance:5%
Can't really see her being playable, especially while Robin still is.

Want:50%
Don't really care either way, I'd much rather see Aqua playable.

2nd Ballot:
Chance:0%
Why have a 2nd one when you can just keep using the first one? Unneccisary work, if you ask me.

Want:0%
 
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Corrin's chances: 5%
Want: 0%


Same scores I gave Azuza. While I think a Fates character is the most likely scenario for a new Fire Emblem character, I also think it's more likely that they'll hold off on adding one until later. I also don't think now's the right time for one.

Secondary Ballot: DOUBLE ZEROES

Why?

Mother 3 stage prediction: 7.39%

Abstain from the second prediction - not certain what exactly it means.

Nominations: Excitebiker x5
 
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Since people seem to be confused once again about tomorrow's concept... time to quote the original post once again.
By this, I mean that after we get the reveal for the Smash Bros. Fighter Ballot character, there will be no more DLC characters after that. Essentially, this can be seen as post-launch support being complete for the game.
 
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Erureido

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Corrin

Chance: 10%

Corrin has the relevancy status going for him as he (I know Corrin can also be a girl, but I'm just going to refer to Corrin as a guy for now) appeared in the newly released Fire Emblem Fates in Japan. As one of the main characters, he is one of the more likely candidates. Corrin could also be interesting with the ability to transform into a dragon for certain attacks.

Outside of that, Corrin's chances aren't the strongest. Fire Emblem Fates was only recently released in Japan, while it is yet to be released for the international audience, and he doesn't have the strongest ballot support. There's also the fact many smashers are annoyed at the fact the Fire Emblem series already has 5 reps, so many think Roy should be the last Fire Emblem character to be included.

Now, this is the same chance rating I gave to Azura, another main character from the new Fire Emblem games, but if I had to say which of the two was more likely, I'd say Azura would. Sure Corrin has the main character status going for him and has more ballot support, but Azura is more unique. To me, I feel as though if Sakurai were to decide which of the two characters will represent Fire Emblem Fates, he'd probably pick Azura because she is more unique. This is a lot like what happened with Chrom vs Robin. Although Chrom was heavily requested for Smash Bros, Sakurai decided to pick Robin over him because Robin would be more unique with his ability to use swords and magic while Chrom would be another sword-yielding lord like Marth and Ike. Yes, Corrin has the ability to transform into a dragon, but from the gameplay I've seen with Corrin, he uses sword-fighting most of the time (not to mention he largely fills the role of the main lord in FE:Fates). Azura, on the other hand, is a lot more unique with her lance-yielding, dancing, and water bending abilities. If this ends up being Robin vs Chrom all over again, I fear Corrin won't have the advantage for reasons I previously stated.

Want: 50%

While Corrin's ability to turn into a dragon would be interesting, I feel as though this would be more fitting for a Final Smash than incorporated into his moveset. If a Fire Emblem Fates rep were to be considered, I'd prefer seeing Azura join the roster since she is my favorite of the two and definitely has the more interesting moveset potential.

Secondary Ballot

Chance: 0%

This is another concept that I don't think is likely to happen. I don't think it is really that necessary to create another ballot for fans to decide which of the top ten most highly requested characters they want to see in Smash Bros. From the current situation based on what Sakurai has been discussing in interviews, I feel as though this Smash Ballot will be the only one, and when October arrives, the results will be analyzed from the first Smash Ballot data alone.

Want: 0%

Like I previously stated, I feel as though a secondary ballot would be a bit redundant. The results from the current Smash Ballot will say enough about which characters people want the most.

Predictions:

Mother 3 stage: 8.45%
No Smash Bros DLC after Smash Ballot: 74.56%

Nominations:

Gallade (Pokemon): x5
 
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Corrin
...so I had to look that up in several places, and I didn't find anything more exciting than a porphyrin-esque ring before I found out he was from FE and I should therefore put 'Fire Emblem' in the search term. Let's just let the fact that Google thinks that the macrocyclic chelating group of vitamin B12 is more important than this guy sink in.

Good? That gives a clue about 'muhrelevance'...

As from Micah's day...

I'd make an exception for Azura since she at least looks unique. This one not so much.
Secondary Ballot
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
As if it didn't seem crazy enough now...
I don't think they're going to pick the top character necessarily. These are all ideas for DLC, and even for 5mash (so don't let a 'deconfirmation' stop you from voting, since now you're hurting them for future games as well), so they'll just look at the characters who have gotten several votes, and decide who fits best.

Let them just make characters after the ballot...
Mother Stage Prediction: 5.5%
Nothing after Ballot: 80.7% (I assume this means that they decide characters from the ballot, make them once the ballot ends, and then make no more thereafter...)

Nominate: Tag-team Relay mode x5

PS: @ colder_than_ice colder_than_ice , do you need help with the nominations? I could keep track of them if you need some help with that.
I'd love some help with that, thank you.
 

Scamper52596

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Corrin
Chance: 1.7%
Abstain from explanation. I'll give the next Fire Emblem character a rating of 1.7%.
Just like Pokemon, my explanations here are starting to blend together...

Want: 10%
Let's let other franchises, or at least more deserving FE characters, get a chance.


Secondary Ballot
Chance: 2%
There's not really any point. Unless this means a Ballot for the next game. I'll give this secondary concept a chance of 2%.
No reason to think this will happen...

Want: 5%
Enough will probably be enough at that point.
 
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Special thanks to @ CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica for offering to help out with nominations.

Corrin
Chance: 1% - I just think it's way to early for Fire Emblem Fates to get a playable character.
Want: 90% - Not that I'd oppose it, he/she looks like a really cool character.

Secondary Ballot
Double Zeroes
I can't see this being considered. The first ballot should be good enough as it is.

Nominations: Tag-Team Stock Mode

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS
 

BluePikmin11

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Sorry I'm late. I'll keep it short.

Corrin Chance:
20%

Another FE candidate I consider to be the more possible. The main character of FE: Fates whose game did very well in Japan and did better than the game that saved the series Awakening, surpassing the game with more features. He seems like a character Sakurai would plan pre-ballot. He's also pretty unique with his partial (dragon-goat) transformations for combat., so he at least has an edge over Chrom in terms of uniqueness. He's I n a very similar position with Cross IMO. I don't see Sakurai really caring that much about representation since the inclusion of Roy added up to 5 characters for the franchise (people used the same counter argument when we rated Roy), I don't think he would care that much if it was Japan-exclusive (for now) since we had Lucas and Roy in the games before. Really not much is blocking his inclusion other than Azura as a potential competitor.
 
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CORRIN
CHANCE: 4.56%
WANT: 26.19%

CONCEPT - SECONDARY BALLOT
CHANCE: 4.75%
WANT: 14.52%
Next up we're rating the concepts of a Mother 3 stage and us not getting anymore DLC after the ballot closes and character(s) chosen from that are announced. Also please predict what score Nabbit and Gallade will get tomorrow.

@ BluePikmin11 BluePikmin11 I counted your score.
 

LIQUID12A

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Mother 3 stage:

Chance: 5%

Let's be honest, if they wanted this to happen, it would have with Lucas' release and bringing back New Pork City or something. The standalone stages we've received have been special cases; Miiverse to promote a new feature, and Dream Land plus the upcoming Hyrule Castle are most likely out of nostalgia. Ryu likely had a stage because new series and all that. So until it's proven otherwise, stages are coming with newcomers.

Want: Abstain

Meh.

No more DLC after ballot closing:

Chance and Want: Abstain

Predictions:

Nabbit: 3%
Gallade: 1.87%

Nominate: Metroid Prime stage x5
 

POKEMANSPIKA

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Mother 3 Stage:
Chance: 5%

If they wanted to do this, they would've done something when Lucas came out.
Want: 50%
Really depends on where.

No DLC After Ballot:
Chance: 80%

After the ballot, what really is there. All characters would be influenced by the ballot.
Want: 50%
Depends on who we get in the ballot.

Predictions:
Nabbit: 4%
Gallade: 4%

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh 3x
Iwata Trophy 2x
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

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CORRIN
CHANCE: 4.56%
WANT: 26.19%

CONCEPT - SECONDARY BALLOT
CHANCE: 4.75%
WANT: 14.52%
Next up we're rating the concepts of a Mother 3 stage and us not getting anymore DLC after the ballot closes and character(s) chosen from that are announced. Also please predict what score Nabbit and Gallade will get tomorrow.

@ BluePikmin11 BluePikmin11 I counted your score.
That awkward moment when Azura has more of a chance than Corrin. I guess Sakurai found his ideal Fates rep here since spears trump swords in Fire Emblem. :troll:

 
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