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Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

TallT

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 30, 2015
Messages
178
Location
Earth
Captain Toad

Chance: 15%

Want: 30%

Krystal prediction: 35%

Nominate: Dixie Kong x5
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
6,496
Location
Somewhere Out There
Miner Toad
Chance: Abstain, I can't rate this when I don't know how many characters will come, how the ballot works and how Sakurai does.

Want: Yeah, that's where I came for: 100%

The Abilities of Captain Toad

Captain Toad is the master of his enviroment.

Pink platforms for pimp slaps, mini minecarts in mazes, turnip traps in turmoil, you name it.

A moveset that revolves around enviroment would be key right?
A moveset that changes the battlefield in one of the levels in Captain Toad.

Captain Toad would be our first what I call "Playground Character"
He wouldn't exactly hurt opponent with his contraptions, but he would be the one to most benefit from it and has full control over it.

Here's a moveset for example.

B: Pickaxe
Captain Toad swings with a Pickaxe, destroying the contraptions he made, allowing him to build it again in another place.
The axe also deals damage and knockback to opponents.

Side B: Minecart Track
Captain Toad walks around, laying down a Minecart Track and a Minecart.
The Minecart deals 10% damage when set down and the building of the tracks merely stuns.

The Minecart acts as a Gogoat that drives from left to right and back on the track and can be jumped on.

Down B: Plant and Pluck
Captain Toad first plants a sapling, when pressing Down B again, Captain Toad plucks what he's planted.
Either a Diamond, a Turnip, or a Coin comes out.

Up B: Mushroom Trampoline
Captain Toad places a Mushroom below him.
The Mushroom can be jumped on to launch

Diamond Fox Prediction: 33%
Magolor x5
 
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ShrekItRalph

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 11, 2014
Messages
625
Location
The smasher comes from the bottom of the arena
Captain Toad
Want 60%
Chance 30%
With Cap Toad getting his own game, and with Toad being the most popular Mario character who isn't included in Smash as a playable character at the moment I do think he has a shot. I'll admit I've never been a supporter of playable Toad in Smash, but Cap Toad is a bit more endearing to me. That being said, I don't think he has a huge shot, but he does have potential.

Krystal: 36%
Inkling X5
 

Parallel_Falchion

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,336
Captain Toad
Chance: 40%
There's a lot going against him and a lot going for him. He's highly requested and easily recognizable (definitely the most recognizable Nintendo character not currently fighting in Smash), but already used as a Peach attack and Captain Toad specifically is made on being unable to jump. Like, it's not just a mechanic absent from his game, it is a particularly noted character trait, and since Sakurai likes to keep characters true to their origins, I can't think of how he would work around that.

Want: 65%
Not one of my top choices, but I've always wanted to see some form of Toad playable in Smash.
 

Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
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Captain Toad already? I thought we'd get to the Inklings before him.

--

Captain Toad


Chance: 15%

Adding brand new characters--as in, characters that just came into existence or just became notable--carries with it a huge risk. Smash has always been about recognizing Nintendo's games, a celebration of all they represent. It is not a marketing tool, at least not as a major function, and does not add characters solely to promote their home games. Despite how often the "promotion" argument gets thrown around, we have no definitive evidence that it's happened before and no reason to believe that it will. The only time it came close was with Roy, and the context makes it ambiguous: they were desperate for clones to pad Melee's roster, and initially asked to use Leif before Intelligent Systems suggested Roy. We don't know if it was for promotional reasons or because they thought Roy would be more visually distinct than Leif or some other reason. We haven't seen a similar situation before or since, and I don't think it'll happen now, either. Captain Toad will have to get in on his own merits and on Ballot support.

Does he have the merit, though? Arguably...he might. Treasure Tracker is a very different experience from other Mario games, and Captain Toad himself could work in a distinct way. While he obviously would have to jump to work in Smash, he could have poor jumping ability, or perhaps use some kind of tool to do so. He could use a combination of his adventuring tools, the equipment he uses in Treasure Tracker, and other techniques associated with the Toad species. Maybe it could be extrapolated into pulling out items from throughout the Mario series from that backpack of his (Mega Mushroom Final Smash?). He'd even have a unique thematic niche, as a classic explorer-type adventurer.

However...there are a couple things that'll likely hold him back this time. For one, Mario characters in general aren't getting much support. It seems most of the fans think two Mario newcomers is enough for now, and they'd rather focus on getting characters in from other series. For two, we don't know yet if Captain Toad's popularity will last or if he's just a flash in the pan, so to speak. Captain Toad has just become a major character, and his new-found importance has brought along a bandwagon of sorts. We don't know if he's still be well-liked once that bandwagon fades...and if he turns out not to be, a Smash inclusion would leave him sticking out like a sore thumb on a roster of all-stars.

Could he have lasting power? Of course it could happen. But we don't know yet, and until we have a better idea, adding him to Smash would be jumping the gun. Odds are, the developers realize that.


Want: 30%
Give him more time. I really want to avoid jumping the gun, and in the mean time there're so many other compelling characters to focus on instead, some of which might not have enough prominence by the time Smash 5 rolls around.

If he did get in, I'd still be interested in him despite shaking my head at him being added early. I do think he has pretty good moveset potential, and it'd be relatively easy to make him unique. I just don't think we should add him yet.

If he isn't added as DLC, though, and he's still prominent by the time Smash 5 starts development? Expect this to jump 40 or 50 points.


Krystal Prediction: 28.49%
Her score'll get unfairly shafted because of Wolf. Remember, the developers don't think in terms of "reps"...especially not if a series has two compelling and highly requested characters.


Nominations: Sceptile x5
 
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PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Captain Toad Chances - 17.5% A LOT of competition from his own series, but it is a series that is a decently strong candidate for a DLC character. That said, there's not a guarantee, and Sakurai may want to focus on other series that are more popular in the fan ballot. The "can't jump" argument is a rather moot one, and I think he has nice, unique moveset potential. Fierce competition and no truly outstanding qualities besides recency (which is just as much as a con), drag him down the totem pole.

Want - 5% too many priorities, but I certainly wouldn't hate him and can imagine the uniqueness. Without seeing it in action though, I think it's an injustice to the standard and profoundly iconic Toad.

nominate Paper Mario x5
 

jahkzheng

Smash Lord
Joined
May 6, 2009
Messages
1,653
Location
Northern California
Alrighty, I'm on time to get my Captain Toad vote in. Also, Sweet! Krystal is next. Anyways...

Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.

Captain Toad

Popularity
Hmmm, I'm not sure on this. At a certain point, the popularity of characters gets a lot more tight and you'll see clusters of characters fighting for fifth most popular or something. I think he's the most popular Mario character though and perhaps a top 10 most wanted newcomer, although Paper Mario is probably pretty close to him in popularity. Pretty popular. Getting a nice dedicated following. Yeah, top 10 material I think.

Importance
Well, Captain Toad under the title of "captain" is a recent development, but I think he's the same Toad we associate with being "the main" Toad. The one closest to Peach, but just exploring now? Or maybe he's an entirely different Toad. In any case, he's "a toad" and a pretty boss one at that. "Toad" is a character that's shown up in many spin off games and in most of Mario's platformers plays the part of helper along the way. Captain Toad may be a different Toad, but to most he's still a "Toad" representative. Thanks to the ambiguity and the same voice and name being attributed to many possible "Toads", Captain Toad can stand in for any Toad character people have ever enjoyed. With this in mind, it's easy to say that Toad's importance is pretty high. He's shown up in many many Mario games, being more prevalent than some Mario characters already on the roster. He's in a similar situation as Bandana Dee although he's had more luck inserting himself into the all stars of Mario than Bandana Dee has had in making "the big three" of Kirby into a "big four". Mario games have had many "side characters" though and in the relative crowd of characters, Toad is actually in the top half of the tier list of important Mario characters. This is even more true now that Toad has a starring roll in a recent game and even got promoted to "captain".

Uniqueness
Toad doesn't jump. At least that's his claim to... fame? Already I'm wondering how he'd work. The assumption is that something unique might be in store. In terms of a moveset, it's hard to say what all he'd have. He's definitely got possibilities. Sakurai and co could get really creative... or they could copy Mario some since Toad has filled in as a playable character in multiplayer scenarios. I don't know much of what Toad does in Treasure Tracker, but I assume he could dig or use a pick in some moves. Maybe his light could be like Mewtwo's glare or he could even make it function like a beam at times. He has spore attacks too and Mario like spins. He could use moves referencing the item roulette or Mario party stuff or Mario Kart. There's a lot to work with here especially if we assume Captain Toad is just "the Toad" we've always known.

Relevance
Toad is always relevant thanks to Mario being always relevant. And unlike some characters, his roll in Mario games means there's always a supporting job for him. But beyond even his "always relevant" status, he's now in a staring roll in a recently released game! Toad has moved up big time and is relevant as ever. This iteration of Toad may be a one time thing as well however and basing a Toad entirely off of "Captain Toad" may be a risk. It would make more sense to use Captain Toad stuff in Toad's moveset but also all generations of Toad stuff like I described in the "uniqueness" category.

Representation
Mario does have an awful lot of reps already and the list of characters that could jump into the roster is long. But where does one draw the line? Toad, for now, is just on the other side waiting to join us. But he may have to and should, imo, wait for other franchises to get more reps. Mario got two new reps this Smash and other franchises are begging for just one more or any while Mario had already many established vets. It is Mario though. Still, I'd have to say no, Mario doesn't need more reps.... yet. Like when I always address this category, it's all bound up in just how many DLC characters we can expect. There's certainly possible room for Toad but prioritizing the inclusion of other characters first seems to be the most sensible course of action.

Limitations
Toad has no real limitations. People have pretty much reconciled the conflict created by Peach's move. That could be any Toad. It could also be "our Toad", but who knows. This whole "Toads" thing has me confused honestly. In any case, Captain Toad helped separate himself with his own starring role and the "captain" promotion. Most have to assume that Peach's move features some lowly "Private Toad" since a captain would never be used as a shield like that... I think. In short, not a real limitation at this point. Ironically, one of the best things going for Toad may hurt his inclusion... he's a Mario character. Mario characters get the love, yeah, but maybe all that love means Mario's quota has already been spent and it's a "better luck next time letter" for Toad. Hard to say. Depending on how much DLC we actually get, Toad could make it being arguably first in line to be included from the Mario series.

Final Assessment

Chance: 30%

I simply don't see more Mario characters being added right away. His chances, like with many characters, hangs in limbo as we don't know how many DLC characters we can actually expect. If it's 10, then he's got much better odds, especially if other franchises get their representation too.

Want: 30%

I want many other characters from many other franchises first. Mario and Pokemon in particular feel full to me, while Fire Emblem feels like it has enough characters but maybe not the all stars it should. I'd be much more in support of Toad or even Paper Mario if Doctor Mario wasn't padding out the Mario representation. Donkey Kong and Star Fox in particular I think should get two reps each first before Mario gets another, and even then there's characters I don't care about as much that I think should get in for their respective franchise just because those franchises could use more characters.

~~~~

Sooooo, we get to Krystal now. I will assume people will rate her chances low because they believe Wolf will get in first to her exclusion. I believe because he's a vet with little dev time and because Star Fox Wii U is a big thing this year, Krystal will have better odds than people think and could get in along with Wolf. That said, I have to predict accordingly what people think her chances are.

Prediction for Krystal

Chance: 38%
Want: 55%


~~~~

5 Points to Krystal!

Oh, I guess we already got Krystal, I can't say that anymore. Hmmm....

3 Points to Shantae!
2 Points to Snake~
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
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7,113
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Still up Peach's dress.
@ YoshiandToad YoshiandToad , please don't miss this game. :p
As if I would. :p



CAPTAIN TOAD

Chance: 45%

Whilst I don't count my number one wanted character as a shoe-in(no one bar possibly Wolf will get that at this point), or even with quite the 50-50 chance, Captain Toad has a few things in his favour:

PROS OF CAPTAIN TOAD:

+ He's the star of a spinoff title from the most popular video game series on the planet.
The MOST popular video game, not Nintendo game, on the planet.
Being popular enough to get his own spinoff game is no mean feat either, considering only Luigi, Wario, Yoshi and Peach have done so in the past. All of whom were major characters.
To me this suggests the Captain is going to start getting a push as a major Mario character, but your mileage may vary.

+ He, unlike the regular Toad is actually a character.
Fun fact: the Toad we know and love, aka Peach's counter, isn't seen as a character in Japan, merely a member of a species. Captain Toad however is an individual much like THE Yoshi. This takes him from generic species member to genuine individual.

+ Due to starring in his own game, he has a fair amount of moveset options.
Before 3D World was a thing, we Toad supporters had to deal with the argument about no move options for Toad outside the slightly clunky Mario Power Ups. He now has access to pickaxes, double cherries, potted piranha plants, giant veg, minecarts, diamonds, a spin attack with his backpack(a secret attack in Treasure Tracker), a headlamp, turnip cannons, a giant dragon/bird for a Final Smash and a possible weight altering gimmick. Characters in the past have had far far less to work with.

+ Toadette alt. + 1 Female character
Ignoring the genderless state of the Toads a second, a 2 for 1 deal is sure to occur if Captain gets in nabbing us yet another female character. Hell, we maybe even would get a 3 for 1 deal as it's pretty likely the generic Toad outfit would also be available as an alt.

+ He will sell. Which for Nintendo is the most important thing.
What sells better than any other video game? Mario.
Popular with all ages, popular with both genders. Regardless of what the Smash community may think, Nintendo knows Mario characters are a guaranteed sell as they appeal to casuals and more dedicated enthusiasts. Plus most of us here are going to buy every DLC fighter anyway, so don't kid yourselves.

+ He's been around longer than you'd think.
Officially since Mario Galaxy putting him at the bare minimum of four main Mario games, two of which he's playable. That's as much as Rosalina, and twice as many playable roles as her too in mainstream Mario games.

BUT MARIO HAS TOO MANY CHARACTERS!

With Roy rumoured to arrive as DLC arguing for too many Mario characters seems dumb, not just because Mario's sales outstrip Fire Emblems by an insane amount, but because Mario characters will always sell to the general public since they're synonymous with Nintendo.

Clearly there's no limit to which characters get in from a particular series, and Mario IS Nintendo's flagship series.

When we start getting Pink Gold Peach, Tanooki Mario or Baby Daisy then I'll concede we have too many Mario characters, but whilst we're still waiting for a series staple like Toad(or Captain Toad in this case) I think we're good.

NEGATIVES OF CAPTAIN TOAD

- Unfortunately there's also one big reason he may not get in; his inability to jump. Essentially Captain Toad's "2Big" argument.

There are of course ways around this; Captain Toad doesn't need to have traditional jumps, he could easily have platforms lift him up instead like in his own game, or he could have an impressive Up + B to make up for it, or even use the backpack weight gimmick to weigh him down when it's full and give him an average-ish jump when empty as playable Toads have been shown to be able to jump before(including the Captain himself in one of the Mario Galaxy games).

It's work around-able, but this would be the one major reason he may not be considered if Sakurai or Nintendo feels it goes against the character.

Want: 100%

Obviously.


As leader of the Captain Toad thread, someone who has been speculating since 2001 with this exact username, a massive fan of Wario's Woods and Treasure Tracker and a HUGE fan of all things Mario I am of course completely and utterly bias in my want.

In fact frankly Toad is the only character I desperately want. Even though I'll vote 100% for the others in my signature I could understand why they haven't been added just yet. Toad meanwhile is a video game icon, the star of his own game, and frankly I consider Toads in general more important to the Mario series than the trio of Mario newcomers we got this time round.

He's cute, he's expressive, he'd fit right into Smash as the action survivor, and I find it depressing that he is hated so much by the Smash community when he's easily one of the few remaining big stars of Nintendo that have yet to be included in Smash.

Krystal prediction: 19%
Wolf. Wolf. Wolf.

Nominate:
Dixie X 3
Impa X 2
 

ShinyRegice

Smash Lord
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Captain Toad chances: 62.5%
I think Captain Toad is in a really good position when it comes to Smash DLC likeliness. Captain Toad is the new rising star of the Mario franchise, similar to Bowser Jr. and Rosalina at the time they were implemented in the Mario universe, and since both got into Smash Bros. 4, it's to be believed that Captain Toad is the next logical choice for a third Mario newcomer. Not only that, but Captain Toad also directly inherits from the Toad species' iconicness, which is yet to be seen represented with a playable character in Smash. At this point I think it's safe to say Sakurai never saw Toad as Smash material, probably because he wouldn't be interesting or something, but I'm sure the unique items and mechanics from Super Mario 3D World (more specifically, Captain Toad's levels) and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker would make Captain Toad's potential stand out in Sakurai's eyes. The fact a lot of fans would want to see a playable Toad in Smash is also a point in his favor, and I'm sure a lot of votes for Toad in the ballot are going to be redirected towards Captain Toad because of Peach's neutral B. And remember I said Captain Toad was the new rising star of the Mario series? This can be confirmed by the fact that Koichi Hayashida, producer of CT:TT, would like to see him in other titles including Mario Kart. And last but not least, the Japanese pic showing Captain Toad thinking "I'd like to participate, someday..." in a web page talking about Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros. for 3DS. I think this shows Nintendo's interest in adding Captain Toad in Smash sooner or later, either as SSB4 DLC or SSB5 I think.

As such I think Captain Toad is in a much better position than a lot of other potential newcomers. However if Sakurai cares about roster balance, then maybe he will not want to add Captain Toad so he won't get backlash for "Muh, another Mario character, that's enough!!", though with Roy apparently coming back I don't think it's a huge issue.

Captain Toad want: 8.75%
Confession time: I never saw Toad as Smash material. (Then again I seriously thought about Dry Bones and Birdo in Smash when I was younger... :facepalm:) And when I heard about the idea of Toad in Smash for the first time I thought "lolwhat?" I recognize Toad's sheer iconicness, but outside of that, the Toad species never really stood out imo, being most of the time either a generic NPC or a playable filler for Mario platformers *cough* New Super Mario Bros. Wii *cough*. Sure, Yoshi is a generic member of a species, but is also a huge part of the level design in Mario platformers, no to mention he has his own spin-off series, so both are not really comparable. As such, I don't really see a playable Toad in Smash and I always had been completely fine with him being a part of Peach's moveset.

Captain Toad I think fixes pretty much everything I find unappealing about a playable Toad in Smash, being neither a "generic NPC" or "generic filler for Mario platformer", and the specific potential from SM3DW and CT:TT makes him stand out from the rest of the current Mario cast in Smash. However, even for someone who doesn't think about roster balance as a priority, I don't really want yet another Mario character over other series, because seven non-clone characters from the same series in the roster would feel like it is really pushing it, even for what's the biggest Nintendo series. Also I don't have much interest in SM3DW or CT:TT, so his inclusion wouldn't mean really much for me.

And I'm still cutting my original 35% want score by 75% because I'm still salty about the possibility of DLC characters never getting custom moves :c

Krystal prediction: 19.44%
Surprised we're rating her before Wolf, but whatever. She's almost definitely not getting over him, but I'm anticipating some skepticism about Starfox getting a newcomer as well.

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5
 
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FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
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CAPTAIN TOAD
CHANCE: 15%
WANT: 75%

Simply put, Capt. Toad is the most significant character to come out of the Mario series after Rosalina. He was also very well received in Super Mario 3D World, so much, that they expanded on the idea and made Treasure Tracker solely around him. He is also seen as an answer to Toad being Peach's Neutral B move. However, I think he's a little too new to get added, even newer than Greninja, in fact, and his rise to stardom is even more recent. And adding the fact that Mario received a TON of new characters in this game, I think he might be saved for the next game in the series.

As for want, I've always mildly supported Toad, and I see Capt. Toad as a perfect way for him to get in. Though I'm very satisfied with the current Mario roster and he isn't one of my priorities.

KRYSTAL prediction: 18%

Nominations:
Dixie Kong x 5

:231:
 

4theRECORD

Smash Journeyman
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Aug 17, 2014
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Captain Toad

Chance:20%
There are a ton of Mario characters on the roster already, but can there be one more? If an eighth Mario rep does occur, Captain Toad is certainly one of the forerunners(The others being Paper Mario and Fawful IMO). He has been a reoccuring character for the past few years since Mario Galaxy, an alt of one of the most well-known Nintendo All-Stars not yet playable, and also had a very recent game that received pretty positive reviews & sales on the WiiU. Honestly, I would be giving him a much higher score if there weren't two Mario newcomers and a returning veteran in the game already. Personally, I think he has a higher chancer for Smash 5, if he's still around. If he manages to remain fairly relevant until that point, I think he's good to go.

Want:15%
That being said...I do not want him. He was a fairly cool NPC in Mario Galaxy, but that's just it. His minigames from 3DW were nice, but that's it. And I haven't played TT yet so I can't speak on that one. And while Toad is definitely a character that deserves a spot on the roster, I can't ignore the fact that we already have two very original newcomers in this roster that have the Mario logo.

...And if I have to choose a Mario rep...I'd stick to Paper Mario.

Nominations:
Checked OP, realized that Wolf is pretty darn close to being rated. So, switching my votes back to
Ray(Custom Robo) x5

...Huh? Waitaminute, did I manage to recieve extra nominations? This early? Sweet!
I guess I'll throw in 5 votes for Slime(Dragon Quest). Think the dude deserves one more rating in this new thread, no?

Oh yeah, predictions:Krystal 15%
Personally I think she deserves better, but Wolf is going to tear her apart.
 

Freduardo

Smash Champion
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Messages
2,331
Captain Toad:

Chance: 15% - I don't see it happening. He'd be really cool, and if Treasure Tracker sold more or had a sequel confirmed, I'd up this, but I don't see him netting votes or being worked on independently of votes.
Want: 50% - Toad would be cool. Captain or not. Up it to 75% cause I'd want the captain toad amiibo.

Krystal Prediction: 20% - Star Fox Wii U is coming, she just is lower because of the Wolf factor.

Nominations: Impa x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Captain Toad Chance:
40%
Captain Toad certainly has made his mark as of recent, he now has the upper edge with actually having his own-spinoff game, and the hint to him possibly being in Smash certainly gives him a somewhat better chance than most candidates. As far as Mario characters, Captain Toad is certainly the front runner, though it's not necessarily a plus for him.

Captain Toad has a somewhat similar problem to Bandanna Dee, he just became an important Mario character as of now. Sakurai will likely treat him as a separate character from Toad, so he'll have to judge Captain Toad on his own merits. And I think it's too early to say he has earned his spot because of this, even if he certainly has the potential to have a unique gameplay gimmick. (A gimmick that I actually like, it's pretty inventive)

I honestly don't have much to say left about him that are major pluses or negatives to inclusion. I could possibly see him getting in, only because of that quote, so I can't say he's definitely not happening at all. I'm a little trumped with his chances really.

Captain Toad Want:
50%
Captain Toad fans and other people in Smashboards have certainly convinced me he could be a fun character to play as, he's not my most wanted character though. I love the community of Captain Toad in the support thread, especially with @ YoshiandToad YoshiandToad running it.

Krystal Prediction: 14.56%
This is probably going to be more biased than the last ratings, for sure.
I know a lot of people here in Smashboards who's against her inclusion.

Nominations:
x5 Jibanyan
 
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Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 14, 2014
Messages
429
Captain Toad
Chance- 22%
Maybe? Captain Toad isn't generic and having a game helps, but I still don't necessarily see it happening.

Want- 90%
… Though that isn't to say I don't want it to. I've always been a pretty big supporter of Toad, and I like Captain Toad specifically as well. In my opinion, he's got to be the most recognizable Nintendo character not in Smash (I'm going to treat Captain Toad and Toad as the same. Cap is a specific incarnation, yes, but he still is one and would go to represent all Toads). Toad's pretty popular, even if not as requested for Smash, and he's been in an absurd number of games. I don't think Mario really needs any more characters, but I can make a single exception for Toad because he just deserves it so much. Having Toadette as a swap would be so easy, too! I can't give him a 100%, though, as I do have some questions as how the move set would turn out.

Krystal Prediction- 15.9%

Nominations:

Impa: x3
Dixie Kong: x2
 
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Sarki Soliloquy

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2013
Messages
2,793
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Andover, MA, USA
I feel like there are going to be more factors that are more prevalent than others when it comes to the Fighter Ballot winner. Like, more emphasis on Popularity over Relevancy and Representation. Uniqueness and Limitations will largely play a factor in realizing the character, so those should be rather neutral.

Also, why are some character votes frozen until April 27th? I understand the whole potential leak biz. But last time I checked, there was nothing of significance for Smash Bros. or Nintendo on that date.

Rating: Captain Toad (Done on personal consensus)

Chance: 30%: Captain Toad has been making a name for himself as a spin-off character, and his standalone game was very notable. However, the fan support I see for him is rather miniscule in its spread and scope, which is surprising given the preference of recent heavyweight titans such as Shovel Knight or Shantae. Not to mention, its generally agreed the Mario series has imploded with characters for this installment of Smash.

Would Captain Toad make a unique, fun character? I'm sure he would. He'd bring an arsenal of tools and gimmicks from his games. His pickaxe-plowing, turnip pluck-n-tossing, minecart-hauling, Double Cherry-duplicating, jewel-snaggling, spotlight-flashing, & platform-raising antics would all work in his favor.

As for his inability to jump, I believe these claims against him have been exaggerated. Yeah, if you ain't at least jumping in Smash, then you're going to run into a lot of problems with movement options & spacing. They could work this around a mechanic having to do with his bag weighing him down. Like, maybe he could fling it to send him bounding in a direction or he could even drop it or remove it for an attack. IIRC, his games involved the use of raising platforms for lateral movement, which is another option. And for traveling raised surfaces or platforms when grounded, he could have a special mechanic where he can ledge grab along the edges of any platform. Maybe even have him use some picks to wall climb.

Want: 5.5%: There's already more Mario characters than there should be in SSB4's roster, so any more would be padding. Honestly, I prefer getting the "Toad" character we've known over the years by SSB5 than reducing him to one concept through a couple roles within his myriads. If anything, he could borrow from a few gimmicks in Captain Toad, which would be a neat nod. Not even Peach's Neutral Special can dilute the notion that he's the only missing star twinkling for the Mario series.

Otherwise, if it came down to it, Captain Toad would be one of my lesser picks over some characters people request. But even then, the chances of going that low on fan wants is too scant to even be possible, really.

Prediction: Krystal (Done on estimated general consensus)

Chance: 60%
Want: 85%


Nominations


Shovel Knight x3
Galacta Knight x2
 

IceBreakerXY

Universal Champion
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Captain toad change:35%

I say the fact that the regular toad has been peach's netural B for3 games straight shows how much sakurai cares for toad.However the fact that captain toad has grown into his own character with is own game and adventures shows that there's light in the tunnel for this guy.He might not be in this game but bet your ass he'll be in the next

Captain toad want:75%

I would love to the little guy but i feel other characters need to be in first before we even think of him.But of course i would go crazy if he was annouced

Krystal preditcion

change:55.67%
want:35.67%

Dixie x 2
shantae x 1
sceptile x 2
 

memoryman3

Daisy Obsessed
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Captains Toad and Toadette:

Chances: 1%.....

The fact that they cannot even jump would instantly question this, but if regular Toad could make it. (But Toad is Peach's side B!)....so still 1%.

Want: 80%

Waluigi, Daisy and Toad/Toadette would complete the main Mario roster.


Speaking of which....Daisy x5
 
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Pureownege75

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 20, 2014
Messages
229
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Gangplank Galleon
Captain Toad
Chance: 15%
Captain Toad has a lot going against him, and not a whole lot in his favor. Yes, he had a new game, but that's simply not enough for a Mario Character. Characters from Big franchises are almost always very recurring (Sheik and Greninja are the only exceptions I can think of), Captain Toad has been in 4 games so far, and only had an important role in one of them. If the new Captain Toad game was it's own self-contained series, he'd have a much better shot, but as it is, we have enough Mario Characters, and I'm sure he'll bring about quiet a few detractors similar to those of Bandana Dee due to being kinda generic. Toad itself is important to the Mario series, but as a whole I feel he isn't worthy of Smash.

Then there's the big issue about the fact that he can't jump. Yeah, there are plenty of other Smash characters who can't jump, but for Captain Toad, it's a defining character trait, arguably his only one. Remove that and he's just like any other Toad with some Explorer Gear. He also doesn't have a whole lot of moveset potential to work with.

Want: 5%
I really enjoyed Captain Toad:Treasure Tracker, but not enough to advocate for him in Smash. The Mario Series is more than ok with the characters it's got, and I'd rather them focus on more important characters from series that need more characters. Plus I really don't think he could be very interesting/plain isn't deserving of it

Predictions: Krystal 15%

Nominations:
Rhythm Heaven Character x3
Stage Packs (64, Melee, Brawl) x2
 

Arthreeteseven

Smash Ace
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Messages
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Pop Star
Captain Toad

Chance: 50%
Captain Toad is a great way to add Toad as a playable character in Sm4sh, but the only way it is going to happen is if he receives a lot of fan support in the vote. Otherwise they will just stick with the Toad as Peach's move method they already have.

Want: 10%
I have no issue with Captain Toad as a character but in all honesty we have plenty of short quirky characters with eclectic move sets, I think when it comes to game-play Captain Toad would wind up being just a boring and less appealing Villager. I wouldn't be pissed if he got in, but I don't think he brings anything particularly new to the table.

Predictions: Krystal 20%

Nominations:
Inkling x5
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
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No-Jumpman: A short story about how I don't give a lala about this argument

Captain Toad can't jump and you might say that's the character.

No.
The no-jump shizzle is just a way to achieve the purpose of the game: To make a Mario-Level turn into a puzzle palooza.
The lack of jumps make it so he won't be able to sanic speedrun to the level and thus has to globetrot in a level Mario would beat in a heartbeat with his Cape/Tanooki/Squirrel/Penguin/Jumping powers

So now that that is clear, how can the finnicky thinking fungus feel of the game be placed in Smash?
With giving Toad a bad mobility and bad jumps so he can't go run in and spin2win, but give tools like Minecart and Pickaxe to traverse the stage BEFORE kicking axx in the first place and Turnips, Diamonds and Backpacks to get the damage itself.

If you still feel Captain Toad can't jump is important to him, don't make him jump.
Platforms that lift him up, Backpack throwing (since that's the thing weighing him down) or just horrible jumps like Mac could fix that "issue" easy.
 

Fire_Voyager

Smash Journeyman
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Chile
Cap Toad.
Chance 20%
Same as Bandana Dee... another character for a well represented franchise, more so, the most represented one...

Want 30%
It could be interesting, but we need something more representation for other franchises... maybe for smash 5

Krystal
Prediction 30%
Furries... I wouldn't mind if she isn't a Clone ...but this DLC looks more like "Downloadable ex Characters"...

Nomination
2x Bub/Bob
2x Rayman
1x Quote
 

Smasher 101

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Captain Toad's chances: 30%

The character's rising in importance quickly. Toads in general are among the most well known Nintendo characters not currently playable in Smash, and with a normal Toad still Peach's custom move, this is the best bet for a Toad to get in. I feel he's the frontrunner for a possible Mario character, though the series already has a lot of characters so I'm not sure if they'd want to add another one (granted it looks like we're getting Fire Emblem character number five...). There's also the whole "can't jump" thing, though I feel that could be worked around if they wanted to.

Want: 60%

I actually think I'd like this more than regular Toad nowadays. Captain Toad's levels were my favorite part of 3D World and Treasure Tracker was also really fun. I think he has potential and is certainly important enough. He's the only Mario character left that I would quite enjoy seeing in the game.

...Unfortunately, because he is a Mario character I'm still going to have to cut out a third of his want score. While he's still a good choice, Mario getting an eighth character when there are still plenty of other series that could still use more/some representation would leave me a tad disappointed.

Krystal prediction: 24.03%

Wolf's almost certainly getting in first, and whether or not we get a second Star Fox DLC character is questionable.

Since we're not rating the leaked characters for a while, I'll go back to what I was doing before.

Nominations: Dixie Kong x5

Didn't expect to make this post as big as I did...
 

WeirdChillFever

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Captain Toad picks apart another argument!

Featuring Mario's too Big?


"Mario doesn't deserve another rep."

Yes.
Totally true.

But it DOES deserve TOAD.
Because it's the most iconic character not in Smash yet.

From the Retainer Mushrooms to the Explorer Man, Toad is everywhere in every Mario game.
It doesn't matter that Mario has 23452 reps if Toad isn't one of them.

It's about the character we're rating people!
If the character is a very good fit for Smash and even a Cult Classic, he deserves to be in.

Do you see me rallying for say Wii Balance Board because "muh reps?"
NO! Because the character we're talking about doesn't fit in Smash.

Too long didn't rant:
Captain Toad isn't "Mario square nr 45", he's Captain Toad and thus Toad!
And Toad deserves the spot no matter the amount of Muhrio's we'll get.

EDIT: Wow I'm ranty toaday.
The Time for Ad-Rant-ure is only a part of how debating I've been today like wow.
 
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Princess Toady

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Captain Toad :

Chance : 30%. Just because of the pessimism surrounding Toad in the SSBverse. TBH, if we were only looking at the popularity he would be a shoe-in ever since Melee, but since he's not there are factors that obviously prevent him from getting in. Like a certain director.

Want : 100%. Look no further than my username, Toad is only close second to Peach when it comes to Nintendo characters. ♥

-

Krystal : I'm gonna give her a 40% prediction, because I expect the pro-Wolf and anti-Krystal people giving her quite a few low scores, the former because it's obvious that Wolf is going to get in and we're not sure there will be more than 1 Starfox character added to the roster, and the latter because they simply don't want it to happen / can't see it happening. :p

-

2 x Dixie Kong
2 x Inkling
1 x Concept : DLC character having no custom (if we're still rating concepts)
 
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Kenith

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Captain Toad:

Chance: 75%. He will probably be a ballot character if he's chosen, and I could see him being out prioritized by other candidates like Isaac, Dixie Kong, etc. However, a lot of things are going in his favor: he is popular (even more so if you count him as Toad) he could be unique, and he is relevant. That's all he should really need to get in, the question is whether he will.

Want: 100%. I'm not even a fan of Toad, but come on. It's ****ing Toad. And he can actually bring something new to the game (weight gimmick). There's no reason why any Nintendo fan shouldn't be completely on board with this character.

--------------------------------
Krystal prediction: 15%.
--------------------------------
Nominations:
Wolf Link & Midna x1
Anna x4
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Captain Toad:

Chance 25%

It's a case somewhat similar to Bandana Dee (a generic lifelong promoted to a slightly more specific character).

Want: 40%

I'm "meh" with him


Krystal Chance Prediction = 15%

__

Nominations

Tiki x2
Micaiah x2
 

BKupa666

Barnacled Boss
Moderator
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Messages
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Toxic Tower
Captain Toad:

Chance - 15%
This is being generous, since I haven't seen him ranking as highly as the typical "middle citizens" of the ballot, the Bandana Dees, Dixies, Impas, etc. of the world. Out of the "General Leaks Discussion Quartet of Shoo-Ins," he's one of the least likely, what with Inkling making far more sense as a promotion and Dixie actually having some chance of having scrapped SSB4 resources (albeit he's higher up than Chorus Kids, who he would at least outperform due to the Mario brand, even if that didn't help his game sales).

With regard to Sakurai, something kept him from adding Toad instead of Jr. and Rosalina, and I have a feeling that Captain Toad getting a different assortment of props in a spin-off from his usual assortment of props won't change his mind here. Even then, if they want to add a Toad character, they'd go with the regular one, based off of an amiibo already existing for him after MP10.

Want - 10%
Give me regular SMB2-era Toad instead of this guy. He's an afterthought who's already losing steam as his muhrelevant game becomes a dot in the rearview mirror.

Krystal Prediction: 16.5%
Nominate Shovel Knight x5
 

Captain Toad

Smash Apprentice
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Jan 24, 2014
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82
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Forever under Peach's dress...
Captain Toad reporting for Duty!
(Clearly I was summoned by the TOAD BRIGADE!*)

Chances: 35%
(I would love to say 100%, but with so many different options, the votes are going to be greatly split, not to mention the thing of "You can't jump" whilst in the same tune playing Villager and other characters who weren't known for their platform games.)

Want: 100%! No surprises there. With pretty decent move options (being almost as equipped as Link), and a very long history, there's no one left from the Mario world that deserves a space more. I'm iconic, been around for years, could bring Toadette with me (Since she did just as much as I did, and credit where credit is due, so an alt shouldn't be that much out of the question). There's a few options around me not being able to jump, such as platforms canons, or just simply dropping my bag and recovering that way, and perhaps suffering a vulnerability for a little while, in a similar style to Jr and the koopalings.... I'm open to options.

One last thing as to why you should support me....

I'm the best.**
*thumbs up*
(Come on, that's was a good reason and you know it haha)

Krystal Prediction: 25% Depends on how it's split, she's got a lot of fans, but people might prefer Wolf back first. So I have no idea of how she'll fair.
----------------
(*May or may not have been actually summoned by the Toad Brigade.)
(**May or may not be true haha)
 

Oasis Dealer

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Captain Toad
Chance:10%
I honestly don't see him coming to this game. Even with his most recent game, there's nothing showing he can be a mainstain character right now (who knows though, it could happen.) Combined with the fact that Toad hasn't appeared in the 4 Smash entrys we had as a playable character, but instead as a move for Peach since Melee, really kills what chance he has. I honestly never liked the idea of Toad being playable anyway. However....

Want:40%
That doesn't mean I like the idea Captain Toad. He could be interesting using tools from Treasure Tracker, and the idea of Toadette as an alt. would be pretty cool. He is one of my lower wants however.
 

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
Premium
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Florida
Captain Toad
Chance: 27%
If we were to get another Mario representative, there's a good chance it would be Captain Toad. The question is if we will or not. Part of me thinks we could due to the simple fact that Mario is the flagship franchise so Nintendo might want to sell at least one Mario character as DLC, but another part of me is saying no because there's a good deal of Mario representation already. If you count Donkey Kong, Yoshi, and Wario partially representing the Mario universe as well, I'd say we're pretty set. I think the only way Captain Toad is going to happen is if Sakurai feels as if the character works in Smash and is worth putting him in. Toad is iconic; he'll definitely sell. Sakurai just has to find him worthy enough to add him, and chances are he only finds him worthy enough to be part of Peach's move set. I'll give the mini adventurer a score of 27%.
A chance that Sakurai will want to implement him in Smash, but that's really all it is with this character in particular. A chance.

Want: 25%
I wouldn't be against it; I know how important the Mario franchise is to Nintendo, but I'm not actively supporting his inclusion either. Truth is I'd rather see other franchises that missed the boat upon release get some time in the spotlight instead.

Prediction - Krystal: 17.6%

Nominations:

x3 Tetra
x2 Toon Zelda
 

Wasoodle

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Captain Toad:
Chance: 35%
Want 88%
Bandana Dee's fellow servant with headgear. He would have a very creative move set and is just a charming character. I feel like Mario can fit one more rep, why not represent one of it's most iconic characters through Captain Toad. The no jump argument is pretty silly too, it's only implemented in his games for the puzzle aspect of it, if he were to jump in his game it would ruin the entire purpose of it. If Sakurai wanted to be realistic and implement every feature from characters games then Villager would never die, Kirby can only use one ability, Only link would be able to hit ganon, Rest would fully heal jigglypuff, etc.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Captain Toad

Chance - 15% - Sorry, but I think at this point we might experience some kind of backlash at this point due to too many Mario Characters. He also seems just a touch too recent to have a decent chance. That said, he might get in due to popularity.

Want - 80% - Honestly, he's pretty much Toad's successor in my eyes. The Bandanna Dee to the Waddle Dees, the Hero Prinny to the Prinnies, the Rocket to the Blue Slime. A character elevated above the generics of the species. Toad's honestly worthy, so why not give him a shot?


Prediction

Krystal - 13.47% - Oh boy, here we go...

Nominations

New Palutena's Guidance Conversations X5
 

TheBlueSpirit

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Captain Toad

Chances: 90%
Just because of Wolf, Ice Climbers, and a few other important characters. Not a setback though.

Want: 100%
I just want to say this once in this thread if it's ok, but Captain Toad's inability to jump is an invalid reason for him to not be in the game, and neither is the abundance of Mario characters. After all, Mario is the most well known Nintendo franchise. Captain Toad's "disability to jump" is but a small part of his game that is there just to make the gameplay work correctly. This in no way is a setback for him being in the game, only an excuse that should not be considered.

So I ask you, what is your reasoning?

Prediction: Krystal-60%
Cause I don't really care
 

Flor@

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
167
Location
Inland Empire
Opinion on Captain Toad:

Chances = 20 %
He's relevant, and people seem to want him in. He's definitely not top 5 of the MOST WANTED characters, from what I can tell, but he's definitely got a fanbase that the smash team will at least look at, and possibly consider. Nintendo execs might even push the smash team to do so, since the character is so relevant. But with all the Mario reps, it also might make the smash team a little more resistant to such an idea and may see other, more promising and pleasant opportunities for marketing other Nintendo games.
Want = 10%
Doesn't seem too interesting, haven't played his game, however some people are apparently rooting for him. I guess if he made it in, it'd sorta spice things up, but I'm rooting too hard for the Ice Climbers to bother with much else, you know? I once watched a video made by some guy who "really wanted" Captain Toad to be in, but apparently had a really hard time trying to think of moves they could use. (perhaps it was a case of sabotage against Captain Toad, idk)

Prediction for Krystal's average "chance" percentage = 25% chance of being in. I would say 20 realistically, but I know fans will naturally vote slightly higher than what is probable--that applies to any character!
 
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Delzethin

Character Concept Creator
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I notice a lot of people are making points about how many Mario characters are already in, and how that'd hurt Captain Toad's chances. They mention how the developers would pass up on adding "another Mario rep" in favor of ones from other series.

He does have potential issues...but I feel people are mixing them up. The ballot changes the rules a little, and the fact that we have two Mario newcomers already wouldn't stop the dev team if there was enough support, especially since they've shown they don't see it in terms of how many "reps" a series gains. What it's actually doing is affecting Captain Toad's fan support. It seems like most of the community thinks we've had enough Mario newcomers, and so he isn't getting nominated as much. From the unofficial polls I've seen, he doesn't even crack the top 10 newcomers very often! Meanwhile, the dev team might veto him for being too new, since we have no idea if he'll have lasting power as a character or if this is just his six months in the spotlight, basically.

tl;dr, Being a third Mario newcomer doesn't hurt Captain Toad's chances with the developers, but being brand new might. Being a third Mario newcomer is actually hurting his ballot support instead. Same conclusion, but with a different cause.
 
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KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
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Captain Toad - 10%

For many of the same reasons others have said, I've not much to add to it. Simply put, the game is very new, and Smash isn't known to make use of content that's about as new as itself. It's highly unlikely the developers would consider any content from this game, especially character-wise. That means Captain Toad's chances are slim.

Of course as always, competition from other far more popular characters certainly won't help his cause either.

Want: 50%

I've come to be more neutral towards him than anything else, to be perfectly honest.

Krystal Prediction: 39.40%

Nominate: Tetra x5
 
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