Going into today I think it's worth outlining some of the baseline assumptions I'm making for this game to ensure my ratings are relatively consistent, until such point any of them are disproven of course:
- This is actually a new Smash game, and Sakurai is presumably directing.
- Characters that were off the table in various ways last time (assists, costumes, stages, etc) are back on the table.
- Sm4sh assets will be reused when possible.
- Starting roster will be at least as large as Sm4sh's.
- Importance of a series has no serious bearing on number of characters it gets (see Fire Emblem or Kid Icarus).
- Ballot results matter, but assuming they weren't lying about Bayonetta's results, our perception of those results can also be very, very wrong.
Without further ado, let's move on to our favorite space dragon:
Ridley
Chance: 50%
I know what you're thinking: Ridley was ruled out by Sakurai. Surely he doesn't deserve a coin-flip chance when we know the guy in charge doesn't think he should be playable, right? At the very least, I shouldn't be rating him higher than I did K. Rool yesterday (25%, for reference). What am I thinking?
In short, I believe he's this high because he's the only newcomer we can be certain will be considered for the game. Let's put aside the size argument for a moment and just remember Ridley's presence in Smash up to now: in the cinematic in Melee, in multiple boss battles in Brawl, and in his own stage in Sm4sh. He's one of the few characters that Sakurai has been directly asked about in interviews because he's so dang popular. Clearly, Sakurai is aware of Ridley and aware of the fan demand for Ridley, and has been thrown bones repeatedly despite not being a playable character.
Yes, Sakurai didn't make him playable in Sm4sh due to design concerns. However, just as Villager was revisited for Sm4sh, we know full well that Sakurai will again have to weigh what he's going to do with Ridley this time around. Maybe there's a story mode where he returns as a boss. Maybe he becomes an assist trophy. Maybe this just ends up being a Sm4sh port and he's relegated to Pyrosphere again. It's certainly true that Ridley isn't a shoe-in for playable, and that's why I'm capping out my chances at 50%.
Still, there's that simple truth: Sakurai's going to have to make another decision on Ridley. He's been in the last three Smashes in some form, so we can be confident he'll be back yet again. Further, he's a character he knows players want, a character that he's been directly asked about by the media in the past, and, frankly, a character that is liable to sell copies of Smash for Switch. Maybe he and the rest of the team decides Ridley is still too big, but I do believe that conversation will be had, and I don't think it's a stretch at all to say they'll finally deliver.
Want - 100%
To be honest, it's not that I personally care deeply about Ridley. Rather, it's that I think Smash fans deserve Ridley. He's our white whale, our El Dorado, our Holy Grail. The community has been asking for him for ages, and yet after all these years he remains nothing more than a dream. Some other exclusions like K. Rool, Isaac, and Geno sting in various ways, but Ridley? He should happen, and even if he isn't my top pick, I'll be seriously disappointed if he's left in the cold yet again.
(Wow, I swear I didn't intend to write nearly that much going in, it just kind of happened)
Nominations - Lucina x5
I'm still surprised she made the cut last time, and despite being a clone, I think she's one of the most interesting potential returners outside of the third-parties.
Snake Predictions - 10% Chance, 80% Want
Boy, the years haven't been kind to this possibility, have they?
Derp. I should look at the clock.
