Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Al-kīmiyā']

FE having 7 reps really bugs me. Sure, they have a large pool to choose from, but sooner or later, by that argument's logic, this'll be FE Vs. Pokémon Ft. Smash Bros. characters.

Just cut some. Just because I want Fire Emblem characters doesn't mean I don't want any of them cut.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Spoiler: Long post about FE. Read if you want an overly critical outlook on its representation and how it compares to other franchises.

Last I heard, It's only got 2 million sales at best. The other reps have laughed at that number and even the lowest selling DK game on the Wii U still racked up a milion which is just under that.

It may be fairly popular, but as it stands, recent popularity has no right infringing on other franchises that have been around for a while simply because
"muh waifu is better than yours".

I won't argue the unique moveset they can have. But until Smash stops pandering towards horny men and making almost all of their fighters bland sword users (where two are blatant clones and pander towards different communities) when there's plenty of variety in the series, I'm not going to change my opinion on it.

Yes, Fates + Awakenimg pretty much revived the franchise, but their time has passed now and they have representation that manages to be unique. Let's keep it at that. There exists oversaturation and then there's legitimate represenetation, like actually being one of Nintendo's higjest grossing franchises of all time with each character being leagues more popular and known than a Lord from FE. With the exception of Lucina, we have a gpod FE roster. No need to change it. Heck, I'd replace Lucina with Lynn and then boom. That's it. Still 6 reps which is a sizable number.

Not counting DK and clones, Mario has 8 characters. The Legend of Zelda has three. Donkey Kong has two. Metroid only really has one. There are other franchises that should have more priority than what was once a dying franchise saved by the anime lovers in the Western Hemisphere.

 

[Xenigma]

FE having 7 reps really bugs me. Sure, they have a large pool to choose from, but sooner or later, by that argument's logic, this'll be FE Vs. Pokémon Ft. Smash Bros. characters.

EDIT: Honestly, it's not their fault that the two series are perfectly suited for Smash and that FE in particular is a growing series (and will only grow more with Fire Emblem Switch). Their exact representation should be liable to change over time, but them being relatively over-represented isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[RouffWestie]

Bandanna Waddle Dee

Chance: 98%

He has enough popularity and recent appearances, so I'd say he's almost guaranteed. There is a very slight chance that he may only appear as an assist trophy, but I don't see any reason for them to do that.


Want: 30%

The thing I like about him is that he proves game developers can introduce new characters - or reintroduce old ones - and make them more popular by giving them appearances and important roles in new games. However, I'm not interested in playing as him.

Nomination: Arle Nadja x5

 

[Erimir]

Generic mooks don't belong in the roster? I really hope these same people rate Toad lower than 10% as well despite him and Bandana Waddle Dee being in almost exactly the same position.

The fact that Mario is the biggest selling video game series, ever, is perhaps relevant here.

Also, tomorrow we're rating Captain Toad rather than "Toad". Who has had his own game. And who is getting a Switch "deluxe" port of that game. And Toad has a bit more importance to Mario than Waddle Dees do to Kirby, I would think, as well as being far more famous due to Mario being massive compared to Kirby. Similarly, Toad has far more playable appearances than Bandana Dee just accounting for Mario spin-offs.

Don't worry, I won't be rating Captain Toad particularly high, but calling their positions almost exactly the same is a huge exaggeration.

I'm going to strongly disagree here. He isn't just fourth character for sake of fourth, he's fan favourite and popular choice in his own right.

I'm not really sure what the evidence is for that, outside of SmashBoards and Smash community polls. Smash Wii U only sold 5 million, yet SmashBoards represents a small fraction of the audience for even just Smash Wii U.

The most recent game even acknowledges this sayimg he deserves a prize for his stellar appearances in the Kirby series

This is a bit like "My mom says I'm very handsome."

We can play the "it doesn't deserve reps" card but unlike a certain series that shouldn't be named, Kirby actually isn't a niche series and is one of Nintendo's greatest.

What makes a series "deserve" reps? There's clearly a connection to sales figures, but I'd probably also say that the threshold is a little higher for a series that already has representatives.

Both DK and Zelda both have significantly more sales than Kirby (over 2x the sales), are more recognizable, and such... Zelda is more critically acclaimed. Yet they did not get new reps in Smash 4, while Fire Emblem got three newcomers.

It can't just be that you like the series. I like Metroid, but I don't have a lot of hope for it getting another character. It apparently "deserves" just two versions of Samus despite the many reasons it might "deserve" better.

Part of this is I don't think we're getting a lot of newcomers. They're not adding a new character for every series. And there isn't any reason to be near certain Kirby's getting Bandana Dee unless you think Zelda and DK are basically assured of new characters as well. If there's reason to think the roster is getting a dozen+ newcomers after E3, I'd be more generous with all my ratings.

FE having 7 reps really bugs me. Sure, they have a large pool to choose from, but sooner or later, by that argument's logic, this'll be FE Vs. Pokémon Ft. Smash Bros. characters.

Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur are gone, and Roy was cut once before. I suspect they won't be the last cut characters from Pokemon or Fire Emblem for precisely the reason you say. I think they're more likely to get new characters but also more likely to get cuts.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

I didn't count the spin-offs because Waluigi and Daisy are bascially the mascots of those and have an almost, if not, perfect attendance since their debut.

In terms of mainstream games, their playable appearances are rather even. Even their cameos or general appearances are up there. It was a way of making a generic character more unique and then taking them to new heights that skyrocketed their popularity within the franchise itself. Of course Mario will beat out Kirby in terms of priority. But their situations are similar barring the spin-offs Kirby barely has to even compete with Mario's anyways. Sure, one is more popular, but that doesn't mean they aren't in similar positions, which was the main point of my argument.

Also, Waddle Dee's are just as important to Kirby as a franchise as Goombas and Toads are to Mario's franchise. Lowly species that are there to serve little challenges until you meet the special one that actually proves themselves to be independent from the rest. While in Toad's case they serve the role or poor royal guards and mostly generic NPCs in most games that have left a salty taste in people's mouths, as well as having the infamous voice that people love to hate. Toad's as a species are more infamous if anything.

But enough of that. I already acknowledged how popular and iconic the fungi is. He DOES deserve a spot in Smash, in my opinion. Which is why I cam guarantee I'll be optimistic tomorrow.

 

[edsett]

The fact that Mario is the biggest selling video game series, ever, is perhaps relevant here.

Also, tomorrow we're rating Captain Toad rather than "Toad". Who has had his own game. And who is getting a Switch "deluxe" port of that game. And Toad has a bit more importance to Mario than Waddle Dees do to Kirby, I would think, as well as being far more famous due to Mario being massive compared to Kirby. Similarly, Toad has far more playable appearances than Bandana Dee just accounting for Mario spin-offs.

Don't worry, I won't be rating Captain Toad particularly high, but calling their positions almost exactly the same is a huge exaggeration.
I'm not really sure what the evidence is for that, outside of SmashBoards and Smash community polls. Smash Wii U only sold 5 million, yet SmashBoards represents a small fraction of the audience for even just Smash Wii U.
This is a bit like "My mom says I'm very handsome."
What makes a series "deserve" reps? There's clearly a connection to sales figures, but I'd probably also say that the threshold is a little higher for a series that already has representatives.

Both DK and Zelda both have significantly more sales than Kirby (over 2x the sales), are more recognizable, and such... Zelda is more critically acclaimed. Yet they did not get new reps in Smash 4, while Fire Emblem got three newcomers.

It can't just be that you like the series. I like Metroid, but I don't have a lot of hope for it getting another character. It apparently "deserves" just two versions of Samus despite the many reasons it might "deserve" better.

Part of this is I don't think we're getting a lot of newcomers. They're not adding a new character for every series. And there isn't any reason to be near certain Kirby's getting Bandana Dee unless you think Zelda and DK are basically assured of new characters as well. If there's reason to think the roster is getting a dozen+ newcomers after E3, I'd be more generous with all my ratings.
Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur are gone, and Roy was cut once before. I suspect they won't be the last cut characters from Pokemon or Fire Emblem for precisely the reason you say. I think they're more likely to get new characters but also more likely to get cuts.

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you saying because Kirby isn't a big as Mario, the franchise shouldn't get another rep?

 

[Mighty Moose]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 55%
I doubt there will be much of a clamour anywhere for a 4th Kirby rep even within the development team, and I don't know that he'd be unique enough to interest Sakurai.
On the other hand; Sakurai definitely loves Kirby and Bandana Dee is becoming more relevant in the franchise. And he does have more of a support group than a lot of characters.

Basically 50/50 in that you wouldn't be surprised either way but Sakurai's history with the Kirby franchise slightly increase his chances.

Want: 40%

My reaction would literally be 'huh, kinda cool I guess' and a shrug if he gets in so I have to put him somewhere around the middle.

 

[Erureido]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 60%

He has become more popular and prominent over the years, especially with the major roles he's been given in several Kirby games. The only major issue is if Sakurai sticks with his bias for the pre Kirby Air Ride days of the Kirby franchise and thus ignore Bandana Dee for Smash, but with the Smash Ballot being a thing, Sakurai might very well think twice.

Want: 100%

Of course! Spear fighters in Smash would be cool to see, and Bandana Dee is no exception. I feel like his moveset from Return to Dreamland and Star Allies could perfectly translate to Smash.

------

Predictions

Captain Toad (Super Mario): 36.91%

Rising prominence in the Mario series helps him. The lower chance scores will probably come from people arguing against his moveset potential.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Bandana Dee
Chance: 85%
Call me biased, but I'm feeling more confident this time than with Smash 4. He's become increasingly more relevant in the Kirby franchise and I feel like he'd have a great moveset.
Want: 100%
Just look at my name(god I want to change it)

Prediction
Captain Toad: 40%
Pauline: 9%

Nominations
9-Volt x3
Toon Link x1
Greninja x1

 

[Erimir]

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you saying because Kirby isn't a big as Mario, the franchise shouldn't get another rep?

I'm not saying Kirby "shouldn't". I'm saying that Mario is a higher priority than any other series except Pokemon. Because they're both one or two orders of magnitude bigger than the other Nintendo franchises.

Which means that if Pokemon gets a newcomer, it doesn't mean much for Kirby. Of course Pokemon is probably going to get a newcomer. Pokemon Go alone has had like $1 billion in revenue. They're not going to say "Oh, we don't want to show favoritism to Pokemon, we'd better give Kirby something too." They're going to say "Duh, we're promoting Pokemon because along with Mario, it's our biggest money maker."

That's not the same as saying Kirby won't get something. Otherwise I'd be saying that ONLY Mario and Pokemon will get newcomers, since they're also massive compared to series that aren't Kirby.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Waddle Dee featuring a bandanna
Chance: 40% - I consider him one of the more likely candidates. He's both popular and has been featured prominently in recent Kirby games.
Want: 60% - I doubt I'd use him much, but he'd be a welcome inclusion.

Captain Toad prediction: 74%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[CodeBlue_]

My vote for Banana Waffle Deed (explanation and rant coming at 10pm PST!!!)

Chance: 40% (was 50% pre-Smash 4)

Want: 101%

My most wanted character in Smash warrants a thorough write-up. Get ready for my procrastinating delaying of my grind for finals for you guys over at Rate Their Chances. Statistics will come with it, unless Phantom stays up until 1 am his time. Today is the "dee" day!!!

PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG MASH POTATO
SACCHARINE

-Thanks,
CodeBlue

 

[edsett]

I'm not saying Kirby "shouldn't". I'm saying that Mario is a higher priority than any other series except Pokemon. Because they're both one or two orders of magnitude bigger than the other Nintendo franchises.

Which means that if Pokemon gets a newcomer, it doesn't mean much for Kirby. Of course Pokemon is probably going to get a newcomer. Pokemon Go alone has had like $1 billion in revenue. They're not going to say "Oh, we don't want to show favoritism to Pokemon, we'd better give Kirby something too." They're going to say "Duh, we're promoting Pokemon because along with Mario, it's our biggest money maker."

That's not the same as saying Kirby won't get something. Otherwise I'd be saying that ONLY Mario and Pokemon will get newcomers, since they're also massive compared to series that aren't Kirby.

Okay then why even bring up Mario (and Pokemon) in relation to Kirby then? Obviously the Big 2 will gets reps but that really has nothing to do with Kirby. And, to use your own example about DK/Zelda vs FE, it's obvious how much a franchise sells is not a bigger factor than how currently relevant a franchise is. Considering how FE is being very heavily promoted, gets a ton of new games, has a mobile game, and has an active and growing fanbase. (Tbh with BOTW and Metroid Prime 4, I really do think that Zelda and Metroid are getting new reps for the same promotional reasons.) And Kirby is a pretty relevant and popular franchise.

And for the record, I think what Shyy_Guy595 how the characters are handled in their franchise, not franchise weight because duh Mario > Kirby.

 

[Deleted member]

I would rather not argue the dead horse that is 'generic mook' and move on to a new, more interesting topic about Bandanna Dee such as his moveset potential and find out how Dee supporters feel about how some of us here think his potential is not that interesting. I thought my further insight on Bandanna would help create discussion, but I guess not. :/

If you want to find out about his moveset potential you could check the Bandana Dee thread. I'll link the moveset I posted there here though. It's kind of long, but the tl;dr version is that it consists of different spear thrusts with a few parasol attacks sprinkled in for normals, both mostly ripped straight from the copy ability attacks. The parasol ones offer floating and the potential to act as a shield of sorts. The specials are a spear throw and spearcopter, which are really standard, then a parasol reflector/divekick and a beam whip that paralyzes (from Waddle Doos). The actual moveset would probably cut down a bit on the parasol moves in favor of more spear moves (like spear spinning, which I didn't really do anything with, or other attacks that aren't just thrusts), but I really like the parasol copy ability so I used more of it than the design team probably would, even if a parasol is nifty. Just the spear on its own offers a new way to fight not present in smash because of how its used in combat compared to say, a sword, so he doesn't have to have a flashy mechanic or special to add a different dimension to the game.

Also, tomorrow we're rating Captain Toad rather than "Toad".

I mean, we're rating Bandana Waddle Dee rather than "Waddle Dee". He's an actual character who's been solidified as a member of the main cast in the modern era. Nowadays, Kirby has a quartet: Kirby, King Dedede, Meta Knight, and Bandana Dee. It's not like he's just some throw-in player 4 for multiplayer like Blue Toad is; he's in the same tier as the others according to the developers and the merchandise. He's very similar to Captain Toad in the sense that they're both named characters who have risen to prominence in their respective franchises.

 

[BluePikmin11]

If you want to find out about his moveset potential you could check the Bandana Dee thread. I'll link the moveset I posted there here though. It's kind of long, but the tl;dr version is that it consists of different spear thrusts with a few parasol attacks sprinkled in for normals, both mostly ripped straight from the copy ability attacks. The parasol ones offer floating and the potential to act as a shield of sorts. The specials are a spear throw and spearcopter, which are really standard, then a parasol reflector/divekick and a beam whip that paralyzes (from Waddle Doos). The actual moveset would probably cut down a bit on the parasol moves in favor of more spear moves (like spear spinning, which I didn't really do anything with, or other attacks that aren't just thrusts), but I really like the parasol copy ability so I used more of it than the design team probably would, even if a parasol is nifty. Just the spear on its own offers a new way to fight not present in smash because of how its used in combat compared to say, a sword, so he doesn't have to have a flashy mechanic or special to add a different dimension to the game.



I mean, we're rating Bandana Waddle Dee rather than "Waddle Dee". He's an actual character who's been solidified as a member of the main cast in the modern era. Nowadays, Kirby has a quartet: Kirby, King Dedede, Meta Knight, and Bandana Dee. It's not like he's just some throw-in player 4 for multiplayer like Blue Toad is; he's in the same tier as the others according to the developers and the merchandise. He's very similar to Captain Toad in the sense that they're both named characters who have risen to prominence in their respective franchises.

I meant bringing a defense for the specific argument I posted here. I would like to see supporters tell their detailed perspectives, but at this point, it would be too late since the rating for Dee is ending soon. Maybe we can continue talking about it in the support thread sometime if you are interested. I have to be off to bed now.

 

[DNeon]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 85%

He's gained massive relevence lately and is repeatedly being trated as the 4th member of the group. If Kirby gets a 4th member (and with more games coming out I think it's a high chance) he will be the 4th, quote me on that.

Want: 90%

He's a spear, so he'll be the first of his kind, and he's adorable. Ticks my boxes.

Pauline Prediction: 8.03%

Captain Toad Prediction: 64.64%

Nominations:
Andy x 5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Bandana Dee Chance: 50%

Hate to say, but this one really could go either way based on what we know or can assume, imo. A lot of people have found interesting moveset potential in the Kirby franchise's Sixth Ranger (I know he's the fourth main character, it's just a trope name), but the question is whether Sakurai could come up with something for the character that he thinks will be unique and fun. Not helping his case is Sakurai's modesty when it comes to the Kirby series's presence in Smash, though I do hope that's long changed to some degree by now, given that we got two Kirby newcomers at once back in Brawl. So, hopefully that isn't as much of an issue anymore. Personally, I don't think that's one factor going to hold him back too much this time. There is the concern that Sakurai may not wish to include much from newer Kirby games in Smash. There's nothing confirmed about that, but there is some evidence pointing towards it being true.

That said, along with having moveset potential, at least in the eyes of fans, he's got a fairly vocal fanbase and has essentially become a new main character in the franchise by this point. And if Kirby is going to get another newcomer at all, it's going to be this guy. No question.

This....character is in a very unusual position, to say the least, with what he has going against him and what's going in his favor.

Want: 90%

I'd be so happy if this little guy finally got into the Smash series.

Captain Toad Prediction: 48%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Chance 65%:
Bandana Dee has a lot of things going for him. He doesn't have as much competition as he did for smash 4. Especially in the recent department. He has gotten nurmerous playable and plot important appearances since Smash 4. And Bandana Dee fanbase is still going pretty strong. Unfortunetly, the fact of the matter is that he wasn't picked for smash 4 despite being recent even then. And Sakurai has been known to prefer to put Kirby stuff that are from games he made. And while techically Bandana Dee is from a game he made, I doubt that counts. And lastly, we just don't know how Sakurai views bandana dee as a character. He really could see him as just another generic mook. I don't think he has really said anything.

But still I'm optimistic.

Want: 100% My most wanted newcomer.

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: 85%

There's a pretty good shot Kirby is going to get at least one more character, with Star Allies coming out, Kirby being at only 3 characters (and not seeming to have the sentiment against it Legend of Zelda has) and Kirby being fairly popular. Popstar Popular, if you will. And if we get another Kirby character, we'll get Bandana Dee, who has become essentially the fourth main character in the various Kirby games and one of the more prominent characters. Star Allies being out only a year before Smash 5 offers a very big marketting opportunity, so I would be surprised if Bandana Dee doesn't make it, although I wouldn't put it at 100% because things can happen, like Sakurai avoiding Kirby for "bias", Star Allies selling poorly somehow, or maybe he does go with another Kirby character in a surprise and only adds 1 or something.

Bandana Dee feels like he has one of the highest chances of true newcomers to me, though.

Want: 58%

There's a lot of Kirby characters I would want more than Banana Dee, like Adeleine and Marx, but Bandana Dee doesn't seem bad, if a bit bland. The fact his spear would add a new weapon type to Smash would be a plus to me, there's spear users I would want more but they all have a lot less or non-existant chances, so Bandana Dee is the best I got here. He's one of those characters I would go "Oh, hey, neat that he's in" but wouldn't be like "OH MAN, BANDANA DEE IS IN? DAY ONE BUY!" or anything.

Nominations:

(Those are in dire need of updating!)

Anna (Fire Emblem) x2
Marx x1
Takumi (FE: Fates) x1
Medusa x1

Prediction: Pauline and Captain Toad

Pauline: 15.4%
Captain Toad: 57.9%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Okay then why even bring up Mario (and Pokemon) in relation to Kirby then? Obviously the Big 2 will gets reps but that really has nothing to do with Kirby.

I believe the only reason Mario was brought up was a previous post comparing Captain Toad and Bandana Dee and that was literally it. A post earlier said he was hoping those who said "Bandana Dee is generic" is used on the Captain tomorrow too for the sake of fairness.

For the record I'm expecting Captain Toad to get lower scores than Dee in both chance and want partly because of the backlash against Mario being 'overrepresented', an argument which still seems weird to me when Mario is one of the two biggest money spinners for Nintendo as well as the biggest video game franchise in the world.

 

[FrozenRoy]

I believe the only reason Mario was brought up was a previous post comparing Captain Toad and Bandana Dee and that was literally it. A post earlier said he was hoping those who said "Bandana Dee is generic" is used on the Captain tomorrow too for the sake of fairness.

For the record I'm expecting Captain Toad to get lower scores than Dee in both chance and want partly because of the backlash against Mario being 'overrepresented', an argument which still seems weird to me when Mario is one of the two biggest money spinners for Nintendo as well as the biggest video game franchise in the world.

Really I mostly just hope they pick one of the many other Mario reps over Captain Toad.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Really I mostly just hope they pick one of the many other Mario reps over Captain Toad.

And hey, that's your right. It makes more sense to me wanting Waluigi, Daisy or Paper Mario over (Captain) Toad than complaining that THE Nintendo franchise gets a character in the game about Nintendo all stars fighting it out.

Not Geno tho. There's limits to what I can fathom.

 

[FrozenRoy]

And hey, that's your right. It makes more sense to me wanting Waluigi, Daisy or Paper Mario over (Captain) Toad than complaining that THE Nintendo franchise gets a character in the game about Nintendo all stars fighting it out.

Not Geno tho. There's limits to what I can fathom.

Yeah, I can't say I understand why people think Mario wouldn't have a lot, the game's title is a parody of Super Mario Brothers for god's sake. There's always going to be a lot of Mario. I think only one game didn't have at least one Mario newcomer (Brawl).

 

[Camc10]

These expectation percents seem very low.

 

[edsett]

I believe the only reason Mario was brought up was a previous post comparing Captain Toad and Bandana Dee and that was literally it. A post earlier said he was hoping those who said "Bandana Dee is generic" is used on the Captain tomorrow too for the sake of fairness.

For the record I'm expecting Captain Toad to get lower scores than Dee in both chance and want partly because of the backlash against Mario being 'overrepresented', an argument which still seems weird to me when Mario is one of the two biggest money spinners for Nintendo as well as the biggest video game franchise in the world.

Oh, I thought it that post (the one talking about fairness) was about how the characters were treated in the franchise and the franchises themselves? I probably read it wrong.

And I do agree, there's no way Mario can be over-represented. It's Nintendo's flagship franchise.

 

[Xenigma]

These expectation percents seem very low.

Today or overall? Why do you think so? If you've got an opinion, please discuss!

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Bandana Dee
60% Chance

To be honest, aside from Dixie Bandana Dee was one of the two newcomers I am genuinely surprised did not make it into Smash 4. It seemed like an era where Kirby deserved a second rep. Dee was the obvious next rep for Kirby. The only real debate was whether Kirby needed a second rep. Fast forward to the end of Smash 4 speculation and it seemed that Sakurai did not think so.

Today... Not much has actually changed for Kirby. The franchise is still going strong, and Bandana Dee has proven to not just be a remnant of RtD. In all honestly, I feel that Bandana Dee is the obvious next Kirby rep. Once again, the question is does Kirby need another rep?

80% Want

Yeah the main thing holding Dee back is the fact he is a bird. But for real the main thing is that Dee feels like the "safe" pick. Like everything about him is safe, even moveset wise. He is like Dixie, except I have no strong attachment to him. He seems cool, but he doesn't have that spark.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day Over, Time to Spearhead cleanup of the thread, noms will be updated, scores calculated, please do not flood the thread like the last two days since I am better

 

[Runic_SSB]

I mean, FE is really that popular. They're going to get more. It's one of their biggest franchises at this point because of the 3DS trilogy and FEH still being on a ridiculous hot streak despite being a really F2P unfriendly gacha. It bugs a lot of people for various reasons because of how sharp the turn Awakeningfates made and how drastic of a shift it was, which is certainly fair, but it is really that big of a series to them now.

Hahaha no. Awakening and Fates only sold like 2 million copies each. Compare that with Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda (the only other series' with that many reps), and it's obvious they're not "that big of a series".

 

[Troykv]

Hahaha no. Awakening and Fates only sold like 2 million copies each. Compare that with Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda (the only other series' with that many reps), and it's obvious they're not "that big of a series".

In the other hand, Fire Emblem is filled with main characters and interesting ideas for moveset across the series.

And... half of the FE Roster was create because of the "correct circunstances" (Roy, Lucina and Corrin).

 

[Camc10]

Today or overall? Why do you think so? If you've got an opinion, please discuss!

Overall. Something I've been thinking, and a lot of people thought this in 4, we are honestly running out of characters. For example with Bandanna Dee, who else is there that needs to be put in over him?(4 imo but thats a different disscussion) At this point, they really gotta go for the characters that Smash fans really want. And since Bandanna Dee does seem to be a highly wanted Smash character, and he is recent games (not that i think helps him too much) his and alot of other characters people want's chances have gotten higher, simply because that's basically all they have left too choose from.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Bandana Dee
56.64% Chance
71.11% Want

Bandana Dee managed to usurp the crown as most likely newcomer from King K Rool. However, he is not yet the popular leader amongst the common folk, as the old King has still a legion of fans.

Despite this talk of usurping the crown, today we have a democratically elected official entering the fray in Pauline. However, she is not alone, as today is the first double day in the history of this thread. Captain Toad, a fellow potential Mario newcomer, comes to join the mayor of New Donk City to be discussed today. Please rate Captain Toad and Pauline in Chance and Want. Also, feel free to predict the chance scores for Takamaru tomorrow (some eager beaver has been nominating him, should have checked the schedule).

Depending of the success of this double day we can do more in the future once the month ends, please give feedback on the multi day.

As for the noms list. I will update it tomorrow, hopefully my internet is fixed now that the snow has melted. If it is not fixed, I will likely be in the library fixing it. Once I get to college, expect no more **** ups with the noms list.

Speaking of noms, @Starcutter guessed the closest and get 5 extra noms, use them well.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Bandana Dee

Chances 70% He has recently been added to Kirby Star Allies and is showcased as fairly equal to King Dedede and Meta Knight.

Want 55%: I have no attachment but I'd like to see his fans happy. (This is happening a lot recently.)

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Ura]

New Donk City Council

Chance

Pauline: 10%
Captain Toad: 40%

The only way I see Pauline getting in is as a retro character of sorts and even then it's an uphill battle for her. She wasn't even that relevant in SMO. Captain Toad on the other hand I see having a shot of making the game given the vanilla Toad is very popular among a broader audience.

Want

Pauline: 20%
Captain Toad: 50%

Not interested in Pauline that much. Indifferent towards Captain Toad.

Prediction: Takamaru

Chance: 35%
Want: 55%

Nomination

Andy X 3
Concept: Advance Wars CO X 2

 

[PsychoJosh]

Pauline:
Chance - 20%
Want - 10%


I guess I would be interested to see what they'd come up with for her moveset, but offhand, she doesn't seem to have any combat potential to me and I have a hard time picturing how she would even fight. So that severely limits how much I want her in the game.

Captain Toad:
Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

If I were allowed to put a negative value in the "want" column I absolutely would. Captain Toad is a total joke and I can't believe people are seriously considering putting him in. This is one of those cases of "just because they can, doesn't mean they should". I'm sure Sakurai could come up with a moveset for a Goomba if he wanted to, but that doesn't mean Goomba should be playable. It decreases the value of the game to add hundreds of crappy characters just because they can. Smash isn't meant to be MUGEN.

 

[PreedReve]

Captain Toad
Chances: 50%
Want: 75%
I haven't played his game yet but it looks interesting. IF Nintendo wanted to add a Toad, I think the Captain would have a better chance because he's an established character.

Pauline
Chances: 0%
Want: 10%
I just can't really see her as a character. Maybe she could incorporate mechanics from Donkey Kong, Minis, and Odyssey?

Noms
2x Style Savvy Rep
2x Mallo from Pushmo
1x Chibi-Robo

Takamaru Perdiction
Chances: 46%
Want: 52%

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Captain Toad

Chance: 80%
Want: 50%

To me he seems like the safest bet. Daisy and Waluigi while both are popular are pretty interchangeable. Meanwhile Paper Mario’s series has been falling hard and being a third version of Mario I can’t see him as being exciting. Toad however is more iconic and he’s leading his own game too so I see him as having a bigger chance.

Pauline

Chance: 30%
Want: 100%

I see her as like the final missing piece. She’s the one that connects the series and as such I think she’s the dark horse of this competition. She comes from the most iconic (Nintendo) arcade game and she’s kept up throughout the eras, but Odyssey giving her a voice might be what tips in her favor.

Waluigi x3
Kamek x2

 

[Deleted member]

Pauline

Chance: 5%

Only because this is Sakurai and he could surprise me. Even if he did, he'd have to be very creative with her, which he admittedly has with other characters before. She's more stage prop material, if anything. And then she gets Alfonzo'd out of the New Donk City stage when someone plays as her.

Not to mention her role in Odyssey, as iconic as it was, was minor; she didn't leave the same impact as Rosalina did in Galaxy. This isn't even going into whether or not Sakurai knew about Pauline's presence in Odyssey when finalizing the roster.

Want: 25%

While I don't really want her, I'm only rating this high for the possibility of a music-based moveset.

Captain Toad

Chance: 10%

At least there's more obvious moveset potential to work with here, and he eventually got his own game. Toads in general are also arguably the most recognizable part of Nintendo that aren't already playable in Smash, though there's still Peach's counter.

Want: 52.5%

Mostly indifference, but I wouldn't mind.

Prediction: Takamaru - 47.5%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Wow...I'm sitting here not even knowing if this is a new smash or a port, and we've got 90+% ratings for a newcomer who barely had anything in the last game? You guys must know something I don't...

Anyway, to business.

Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?

Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

Really? I get it, she's prominent in the newest Mario main series game, which just missed out on GOTY because Nintendo brought out a different franchise's pièce de resistance. She was the first damsel in distress, which only Nintendo fans really know, since she didn't even officially have a name in 1981. Still, she's been out of shot for most of the main series, and even the spin-offs. I can't see why she'd get in before Daisy for any reason.

After all, she hasn't even littered Mario Kart with a normal version, a baby version, a cat version...

I think she'd make a good trophy and color swap for Peach, and that's it.

Toad with a Headlamp

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Just like yesterday, this is a generic creature made special by giving him stylish accessories. At least this one can say that he has his own games. Still, the classic Toad is a bit more recognizable, if her ever decided to leave the safety of Peach's skirt. I really don't have anything too new to say about this one that I didn't get yesterday with Dee, since I think they're both in the same boat. Mario would definitely deserve a character more because of its visibility, but Toad isn't the #1 character who'd be next, as good arguments could be made for Daisy, Waluigi, and the normal Toad as well.

Sorry, it's been a long week at work, and I don't feel like writing a thesis on these two.

Prediction: Takamaru 29.6%
Nomination: x5

 

[NintenRob]

I like Multi days, let's us get through things quicker, and since Smash releases this year, I think that's a good thing. Although bigger more popular characters should probably just get one day

Captain Toad
Chance 50%
Could go either way, his specific inability to jump is an obstacle, but not one that can't be worked around.
Want 50%
King Boo is the Mario character I want but I'd be OK with him. His game is fun

Pauline
Chance 10%
He resurgence is very new, too new. Give a bit more time and see where it goes
Want 30%
I'd like her more than some Mario characters like Paper Mario and Gen, but not others.

Nominate Skull Kid x5

Prediction
Takamaru 35%