Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[WaddleMatt]

First time joining in here (I have been watching this thread everyday lol).

Chance: 5%

Considered for Melee but other than that I got nothing.

Want: 0%

Never played the game and I am not interested whatsoever.

Nominations: Monster Hunter x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Urban Champion want: 0%

I hate his box art character design. His moveset seems boring to me.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Urban Champion

Chance- 5%
He's more obscure than the likes of Takumaru, Excite Biker, or even Mach Rider. Sakurai may pick him over other retros to really surprise everyone, but I don't see it happening.

Want- 35%
I'm always big on retros. However, I'd prefer many other retros before him, like the 3 mentioned above.

Mipha- 24.52%

Steve X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Urban Champion

Chance: .1%
He's beyond obscure with barely any support from what I see. As a retro pick, characters like Takamaru have a much greater chance.
Want: 0%
Nothing about him interests me. I've never played the game and I just don't want him.

Mipha Prediction: 8.01%

Nominations
Endou Mamoru x5

 

[NintenRob]

Urban Champion
Chance 3%
It's possible I guess, but he comes across as very uninspired. I think Sakurai look towards other characters .
Want 0%
Very boring. I'd much rather Excitebiker or ever Takamaru

Nominate Lara croft x5 (do we know what happened to Connery? )

Prediction Mipha 17%

 

[wildvine47]

Urban Champion

Chance: 2% - A retro option without any unique draws, no real significance amongst his peers, and who has next to no moveset potential? Yikes. 1 extra percent for being considered previously, but Takamaru's got this spot on lock, and even if he somehow doesn't, there's a laundry list of other options that'd come before this guy.

Want: 0% - Urban Champ? More like Urban Chump, amirite?

Predictions

Bad VA Fish: 10.55% - Don't think the champions are happening, and even amongst them Mipha seems like the least likely, tied with Daruk. Her and Revali are the only two champs not shown actually fighting, and her and Daruk's popularity drops off pretty hard compared to Revali and Urbosa's, outside of... darker... corners of the internet.

Nominations

Someone better count these up soon, cause we've got til tomorrow to lock in the last nine. Let's get the last Pre-E3 ratings locked and loaded.

Lara Croft x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Connery went on vacation until the 8th. I will try to have a nomination list done by noon tomorrow, will at least have a schedule done. Might toss on a few extra things for double days before E3.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1% - Although he was appearenyly considered for Smash before, he didn't make the cut then, and I don't think he'll make the cut now. Maybe a trophy of Assist Trophy if we're lucky.

Want: 0% - No attachment.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Urban Champion

Chance and Want: ABSTAINED. I just heard of the character yesterday., so I can't make a prediction here.

Mipha Prediction: 11.55%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Street Fighter

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Oh boy, another generic retro...

I’ve really never been big on characters whose main reason for inclusion is “this series is dead and buried since the NES.” Wasn’t the game pretty bad too? Yes, he might have been considered in Melee, but so were Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and the IC’s. Tak’s pretty well got a lock on the ‘retro slot’ and we really don’t need a boatload of newcomers for casual fans to go “huh?” over.

After all, it kinda says something when Smash gets a character from Street Fighter before their own original Street Fighter.

Prediction for Sidon’s sister: 19.7%
Nom: Skyrim x5

 

[Cycrum]

Urban Champion

Chance and Want: Abstain

I hate doing this twice in a row, but, for two days in a row having characters I know next to nothing about, it is fair. He seems a bit too obscure and generic to be a retro rep for the next Smash, though.

Prediction:
Mipha: 20.78%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x4
Lara Croft x1

 

[MasterWarlord]

Urban Champion: He's a token retro/shock retro pick. For perspective, I don't even like the Ice Climbers. At least Pit was from a remotely popular retro title. Urban Champion is just another fish in the sea of obscure retro picks to be selected from at random, and I really hope we don't have another one of these. If we do, make it be someone with an actual following like Takamaru.

Chance 0.75%
Want 0%

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Urban Champion

Chance - 0.5% - While once considered, sadly he doesn't offer much to the table. He's not supper popular, nor does he have much in the way of move set potential. I don't see why he would be brought up nowadays.

Want - 35% - Really not feeling him. There are many better retros that could offer something more.


Prediction

Lloyd Irving - 11.24% - I dunno.


Nominaitons

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[slambros]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1%
Urban Champion may have been a quintessential NES game, but it seems to have fallen by the wayside.

Want: 0%
Such. A. Generic. Design.

Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[PsySmasher]

Urban Champion

Double Abstain
I rarely do this, but I know literally nothing about the character. I could see him getting in, but there are many other retro reps that would get in first (in my opinion).

Nominations:
Kamek x 5

Predictions
Mipha: 12.55%
I honestly don’t see any of the Champions as being playable.

 

[Smasher 101]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1%

Was apparently once considered for Melee, but not only were the Ice Climbers chosen as the NES characters, the reason for his champ's dismissal was because Sakurai didn't have a good moveset for him. That's really, really bad. He's changed his mind in the past, but I don't think he'd have a good reason to for this one. He's not that requested of a choice, and from I can tell Urban Champion isn't even a particularly popular NES game. There are definitely bigger names out there, and the more significant fighter Little Mac being in may also take away from him. To be honest, the only thing he has in his favor is that he's a first party character.

Want: 0%

I usually like retro fighters because I think it's cool to have older parts of Nintendo's history represented, but Urban Champion honestly doesn't seem interesting to me in the slightest. There are plenty of other retro characters that I'd much rather have. A stage could be neat, though.

Mipha prediction: 21.51%

Nominations: Corrin x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Urban Champion
Chance: 0%
I don't think he's particularly requested. I also don't think he'll catch Sakurai's eye over better retro possibilities.

Want: 0%
I had to look this up. I never played this game and have no connection to this character.

Mipha: 22.9%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Wyoming]

Sweet can fit in one post.

Urban Champion:

Chance: 1%
This retro game is not one that is critically acclaimed. Mediocre reviews and reportedly poor sales hurts any likely representation from this series.

True: Ice Climber is not seen as a classic but Nintendo do put the game on the spotlight from time to time: a game in Animal Crossing, imagery from WarioWare, and in the NES Classic are some examples of this.

Urban Champion? In none of these. It is a forgotten relic of its time.

The biggest downside for me however is move set potential: you could try to implement all the elements of the game into a comprehensive moveset akin to Duck Hunt (pot plants, arrests, etc.) but that seems to be a struggle to tie in together.

But the stamina mechanic in Urban Champion could be what proves to be interesting for Sakurai: an anti-Lucario that gets weaker the more he hits and gets hit. That would make him a heavy hitting character that must wait patiently for an attack. A playstyle not yet explored!

...but I think they would rather pick a different character for such a style: one with more pedigree to be in this game. All the retros in Smash are added due to their influence in the company's history, an interesting concept that can function in Smash, or fan demand in Pit's case. Urban Champion has none of these going for him to be the retro selection. He does not stand out.

Want; Abstain
Rather other retrps but not picky.

Mipha: 16.7%

Nominate Toon Zelda x3, Lara Croft x2

 

[Erureido]

Double abstaining for today. I barely know Urban Champion enough to give accurate scores.

------

Predictions

Mipha (Legend of Zelda): 14.23%

Relevancy and her prominence in BotW will certainly help her, but the "one-timer" feel will hold her back like most other Zelda candidates.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Urban Champion
Chance: 3% - Sakurai has considered him before, but he didn't get in. Ice Climbers did, and we know one of the other retros (Takamaru) has been considered since then. Why would he be considered now?
Want: 10% - Ehhhhhh.... if Ryu gets cut, maybe.

Prediction: Mipha
Chance: 7.21%
Want: 54.32%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit

 

[DaUsername]

Urban Champion
Chance: .01%
Sakurai himself basically said that this character is too boring. I highly doubt he'll ever be included.
Want: 0%
He isn't interesting at al. No thanks.

On another note, why was Urban Champion chosen over literally any other Nintendo game to be a 3D Classic? I don't get it.
Mipha prediction: 14%
Noms: Steve x5

 

[NintenRob]

Connery went on vacation until the 8th. I will try to have a nomination list done by noon tomorrow, will at least have a schedule done. Might toss on a few extra things for double days before E3.

Well that's good.

I hope you enjoy your vacation Wyoming

 

[andimidna]

When does deleting everything below 50 go into effect and why the big jump from below 25 to below 50?

 

[Troykv]

When does deleting everything below 50 go into effect and why the big jump from below 25 to below 50?

It's when the Pre-E3 Days Begins, and the E3 event is the reason why we're getting a higher threshold for the cuts; after all, the E3 will give us answers and possibles about the future of the game (and also confirm or deconfirm some of the Concepts).

 

[ProfPeanut]

Urban Champion

Chance: 3%
With so many fisticuff characters already in the wings, an ARMS rep being the most prominent of them, there's just too little justification to scrape down for this guy. If Smash 4 was any indication, Sakurai's not such a fan of going back to older, less interesting choices.

Want: 0.1%
I didn't think that such a technically-legitimate playable candidate could be so frustratingly boring. Congratulations, Urban Champion, you achieved something.

Prediction:
Mipha: 22%

Nominations
Viridi x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wow, can’t believe after so long noming this guy, I almost missed his day.

Urban Champ

Chance: 5%
I mean, yeah, they’re not good. Sakurai has spoken to not seeing any possible moveset, and while he did say that about Villager as well, we all know that Villager had a lot more to work on. That said, never say never, right?

Also, to anyone who says we already have Ryu and Mac, Urban Champ would probably be more of a raw strength, little skill brawler, rather than the boxing and martial arts of the others. Hell, he could take the Mii Brawlers’ moveset for all I care. (Has anyone ever considered what’s gonna happen with those?)

Want: 75%
I actually find a character so generic as Urban Champ interesting. Amongst the iconic, colorful characters of Smash, having a simple, nondescript punchy guy, feels like it’d perfectly represent his game: just a game about punching another dude.

Wyoming Gotta say, I’m loving your stamina concept! Enjoy your vacation!

Not even gonna attempt to predict Mipha. Just throwing a random 19%

Nominations: Mach RiderX3
Prince SableX2

 

[Esquelen]

Chance: 10%
It has appeared as a cameo in many games, if you give it a moveset, surely it will be original, but I do not see it probable, there are better retro characters.

Want: 1%
I prefer other retro characters before.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Urban Fighter

Chances and Want: 1%

I'm giving a 1% here for the fans who wants him. UF doesn't seem to really add much potential in the terms of the series plus most of his made up moves would've made him a Little Mac semi-clone in a way. Retro choices has better amount of selections with Lip, Takamaru, Mach Rider, etc who are more requested and felt more unique. The only way UF would every make a Smash game is if his series is revived or a lucky random WTF moment like how they did with Game and Watch, ROB, Wii Fit Trainer, and Duck Hunt to name a few


Nominations:

Gengar x4
Zeraora

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Urban Champion Chance: 0%
Sakurai considered him once all the way back in Melee, and was axed seemingly because Sakurai couldn't come up with a moveset for him. And honestly, that makes perfect sense. The character can only punch. That by itself isn't what kills his chances though: it's that AND the fact that there's already a character that only uses punches already in Little Mac. That pretty much kills the one thing he could have had going for him, because let's face it, one can't do a lot with a moveset revolving around punches, especially not when you're trying to make two unique characters with that idea.

Want: 0%

Mipha Prediction: 15%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[TheFritzle]

Urban Champion:
Chance: 2%
He's missed his chance three times already, I can't see Sakurai giving much thought about adding him. He lacks real moveset potential, and a lot of the other characters like Little Mac and Ryu already have taken over the punching category. There is only so much you can do with him. The best I could see is if they add him as an assist trophy and have him take over what Little Mac did in Brawl.

Want: 0%
Seems really boring and would have one of the blandest movesets. Give the dev time to some other character that would bring something unique.

Mipha Prediction:
17.84%

Nominations:
Ray x10

 

[Kotor]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

He was turned down in favor of the Ice Climber. It was 18 years ago, so Sakurai could reevaluate him. However, I think the retro rep is gonna be Takamaru. Sakurai considered Takamaru during the Smash 4 period. I don't know mentioned if Sakurai considered other characters that could join Duck Hunt as being the "retro newcomer." Maybe he'd be better off as an Assist Trophy.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Urban Champion

Chances: 30%
Want: 20%

Could be a cool retro rep but there are better ones to choose from so this is not the most likely or wanted.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[Pacack]

Wow, not often I can rate as low as I'm about to.

Urban Champion:
Chance: .01%
While theoretically possible, I have every reason to believe that Sakurai stands by his comments made back when he chose Ice Climbers.

Balloon Fight — seems like he wouldn’t be able to do anything after his balloons are popped

Urban Champion — seems like he doesn’t have a lot of moves

Clu Clu Land — don’t know how she would fight

Excitebike — we’d need to make ramps for him to jump (that’s not really the issue)

Given that Urban Champion is easily the most obscure of these characters, I feel confident in saying that Sakurai would not reconsider the character, again due to a lack of moveset potential.

Want: 0%
He's boring. That's the entire reason he was passed up.

Mipha Predictions: 16.7%
I'm expecting it to be ridiculously higher than it ought to be.

Nominations: Historical Character x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok so I am going to double abstain today, do not have the time to write up or am in the mood to consider. I am having a rough time rn, so expect late calcs and noms list updates. I’d guess around 4 pm edt.

Nom Excitebiker x 5

You have 30 minutes until I end the day.

 

[fogbadge]

so im the only only one who wants him in smash? what a terrible shame

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Quick update for all of you.

I am 33% Done with the nominations list. I will have the rest done soon. Urban Champion's calcs are coming soon.

Expect the new day to start at around 5. Sorry for any delays.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

so im the only only one who wants him in smash? what a terrible shame

I mean, I'm the one who nominated him and gave him a 95.

 

[fogbadge]

I mean, I'm the one who nominated him and gave him a 95.

must have missed that among all the nae sayers

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the late update, had an emergency that needed my care. Urgent Champions scores and the updates to the front page will come tomorrow. Without further ado, here is the updated noms schedule.

Spoiler: Nominations

Steve x322
Excitebiker x292
Pyra & Mythra x292
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x285
Concept: Skyrim representation x265
Lara Croft x259
Cranky Kong x257
Gengar x253
Masked Link x239




Over 200:
Wonder Red x237
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x235
Kamek x233
Veteran: Corrin x220
Linkle x215
Lloyd Irving x215
Tingle x204
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x200



199-150



Sakura Shinguji x198
Sable Prince x189
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x188
Papyrus x175
Parabo & Satebo x174
Ray x163
Ryu Hayabusa x160
Django x155
Slippy Toad x152
Tetra x150
Labo Guy/Robot x150
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100


Neku Sakuraba x149
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Tsubasa Oribe x145
DeMille x143
Balloon Fighter x142
Thwomp x141
Scorpion x135
Leon Kennedy x132
Katrielle Layton x130
Eevee x130
Primarina x125
[Rerate] King K. Rool x125
Fawful x124
Concept: Monster Hunter character x115
Octoling x110
2B x106
Barbara x104
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x100
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x100



99-75


Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x98
Smash Run x98
Arcade Bunny x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Louie x85
Susie x84
Gooey x84
Klonoa x80
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x80
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x79
Meowth x78
Dragonite x77
Tora & Poppi x76
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Stage: New Donk City x70
Ayumi Tachibana x67
Starfy x64
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Breidablik Item x60
9-Volt x60
Toon Zelda x60
Viridi x57
Yu Narakumi x56
Mach Rider x56
Tails x55
Rick/Coo/Kine x55
Rowlet x55
Viewtful Joe x55
Concept: Wars character x53
Concept: Style Savvy character x53
Slime x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x51
Neptune x50




49-30:

Veteran: Bayonetta x47
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Concept: Female Announcer x35
Concept: Historical Character x35
Nikki x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Solaire x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Concept: Transformation characters x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
T-Rex x25

24 and less:


Ninten x24
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x20
Concept: Boss Battles x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x15
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x10
Demifiend from SMT3 x10
Black Mage x6
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Mushashi x5
Concept: 16-Player Smash x5
Concept: DLC Announcers x5
Fiora x5
Muddy Mole x5
Dr. Wright x5
Andross x 5
Mametchi x 5
Increased gen 1 content after pokemon let's go x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

As such, the schedule is the top nine. Please rate Mipha in chance and wand and Predict steve from minecraft.

 

[Troykv]

Sorry for the late update, had an emergency that needed my care. Urgent Champions scores and the updates to the front page will come tomorrow. Without further ado, here is the updated noms schedule.

Spoiler: Nominations

Steve x322
Excitebiker x292
Pyra & Mythra x292
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x285
Concept: Skyrim representation x265
Lara Croft x259
Cranky Kong x257
Gengar x253
Masked Link x239




Over 200:
Wonder Red x237
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x235
Kamek x233
Veteran: Corrin x220
Linkle x215
Lloyd Irving x215
Tingle x204
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x200



199-150



Sakura Shinguji x198
Sable Prince x189
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x188
Papyrus x175
Parabo & Satebo x174
Ray x163
Ryu Hayabusa x160
Django x155
Slippy Toad x152
Tetra x150
Labo Guy/Robot x150
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100


Neku Sakuraba x149
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Tsubasa Oribe x145
DeMille x143
Balloon Fighter x142
Thwomp x141
Scorpion x135
Leon Kennedy x132
Katrielle Layton x130
Eevee x130
Primarina x125
[Rerate] King K. Rool x125
Fawful x124
Concept: Monster Hunter character x115
Octoling x110
2B x106
Barbara x104
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x100
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x100



99-75


Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x98
Smash Run x98
Arcade Bunny x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Louie x85
Susie x84
Gooey x84
Klonoa x80
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x80
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x79
Meowth x78
Dragonite x77
Tora & Poppi x76
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Stage: New Donk City x70
Ayumi Tachibana x67
Starfy x64
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Breidablik Item x60
9-Volt x60
Toon Zelda x60
Viridi x57
Yu Narakumi x56
Mach Rider x56
Tails x55
Rick/Coo/Kine x55
Rowlet x55
Viewtful Joe x55
Concept: Wars character x53
Concept: Style Savvy character x53
Slime x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x51
Neptune x50




49-30:

Veteran: Bayonetta x47
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Concept: Female Announcer x35
Concept: Historical Character x35
Nikki x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Solaire x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Concept: Transformation characters x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
T-Rex x25

24 and less:


Ninten x24
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x20
Concept: Boss Battles x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x15
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x10
Demifiend from SMT3 x10
Black Mage x6
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Mushashi x5
Concept: 16-Player Smash x5
Concept: DLC Announcers x5
Fiora x5
Muddy Mole x5
Dr. Wright x5
Andross x 5
Mametchi x 5
Increased gen 1 content after pokemon let's go x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

As such, the schedule is the top nine. Please rate Mipha in chance and wand and Predict steve from minecraft.

So we can stop voting for the characters in the Top Nine? Oh, oky, I'll put my rates later.