Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[CatRaccoonBL]

Professor Layton
Chance: 10%
In a sea of potential 3rd party characters, he exists. That is also ignoring the fact he also has competition with other Level 5 superstar series Yo-kai watch.
Want: 20%
I've had interest in his series. But I haven't really gotten around to playing them.

Edit: Nominations Ashey (warioware) 5x

 

[VexTheHex]

Professor Layton
Chance: 5%
Third party characters will always be facing an uphill battle into getting into Smash as the game is a celebration of Nintendo characters. I'm not sure he is really on that iconic level as Sonic, Pacman, Ryu, or Cloud. And there is a chance he can pull a Snake (requested by dev) or Bayonetta (somehow winning ballot), but those two do and did suffer from people questioning if they really belong in Smash. (Cloud gets this as well, to be fair) I'm not sure on his overall potential either as a fighter seeing as our only puzzle fighter is a clone.
Want: 5%
Nothing stands out about him. I'd rather our 3rd Party reps be hugely iconic like Sonic, Pacman, Bomberman, Crash, Spyro, Banjo & Kazooie, Megaman, and others on that level. I honestly don't feel characters like Bayonetta, Travis, or Layton really deserve to be in the roster. The only thing Layton has over others is at least he could fit in better, but I really don't think we need many 3rd parties that are smaller fish if any.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 26%

He hasn't achieved maximum iconicness yet.

Want: 17%

I feel like he'd be kind of boring.

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Professor Layton

Chance: 25%
Want: 5%

He’s had a lot of games on Nintendo consoles so he’s definitely eligible. However i don’t see him as interesting as other 3rd parties.

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[jamesster445]

Layton

Chance- 50%
Reps puzzle games and Level 5 has been a reliable partner.
Want- 50%
Puzzles aren't my cup of tea but he's an Englishman and Shulk's lonely. Also something about his fans being happy or something.

Nominations- Prince Fluff x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Professor Layton
Chance- ABSTAIN
Don't know enough about his recent games/anime, international popularity, and competition with Yo-kai Watch to make any reasonable prediction.
People talk about Layton's popularity, especially in Europe, which I'm willing to believe, but it seems like three-quarters of the 22 possible newcomers we have gone over so far have been described as immensely popular and must have done great on the ballot. That's already too many characters to have made a significant splash during the ballot.
Want- 5%
Nothing against Layton, but I don't think he brings enough to the table to justify his addition as a third party, despite being kinda, sorta iconic and having a close relation with Nintendo. If I saw wild moveset potential, I might be on board, but right now I'm not interested in a playable character. Maybe some other kind of representation?

Waluigi Prediction- 34%
Thought I'd have a good idea of how to predict him? Too bad!

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Professor Layton

Chance: 15%
3rd party is one of his issues nya, if Nintendo wants a character from Level 5 than maybe it'll happen nya... he's nyapparently rather popular nya, but even so I see his chances are rather dim nya.

Want: 10%
Never played the games and only heard of the character via Smashboards nya. ... He never really stood out much to me either nyaaa. Nyalso I would greatly prefer the detective and Witch of Truth Furudo Erika nya.


Nyominations nyaa

Concept: No Cuts x5

 

[chemo]

Professor Layton

Chance: 10%

Seems too "out there" in terms of third-parties, especially considering he would have to compete with Level-5's own Yo-Kai Watch series for representation.

Want: Abstain

I have nothing personal to say on this character; I just don't know what he'd be like or what I'd feel toward him.

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 3%
Layton is a pretty niche guy. He has strong fans and Level 5 is a strong supporter of Nintendo ( they did announce all their games would be on Switch from now on) but the only third parties we have are huge names aside from the ballot witch. If he's in Smash he's probably in as a trophy. Playable seems like too big a step with Banjo, Rayman, and Crash all trying to secure a spot on the roster.

Want: 40%
I love puzzle games and but much like Dillon I have yet to play his games personally. Still, he certainly seems neat.

noms: Tethu X5

 

[Erimir]

Professor Layton

Would be a bit of an out-there inclusion, since he doesn't have a lot of combat in his games. He would be similar to Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in that regard - it's likely a lot of his attacks would have animations that don't really look like attacks (like Villager pulling grass, planting trees, etc.). You can certainly come up with something for him, but it's less obvious. Less "dancing in the head". But while Sakurai was willing to include Villager and WFT, they are still fairly unusual.

Sure, his company has a good relationship with Nintendo, which means that should provide no obstacle. He has some popularity as well, maybe more in some regions than others. Bayonetta got in on the strength of her European ballot results, which might mean they'd be looking at the ballot more for US or Japanese popularity. Ultimately, I don't think he would be high on Sakurai's list.

Layton chances: 5%
Layton want: 10%
Meeeeeh

Nominations: Lucina x5

Waluigi prediction: 25%
Just because you try hard, doesn't mean you'll make it into battle.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Layton
Chance: Abstain
Honestly I'm puzzled as to what they are.

Want: 50%
I LOVE puzzle games, but I'm more of an action puzzler than a thinky puzzler(aka I'm a dumbass) so I have yet to play a Layton game. Give me Wario's Woods, Captain Toad, Dr. Mario or Portal and I'll be blitzing through. Give me Brain Training and I may as well be a newborn for how effective I am at it.
That said I still created Layton pretty quickly as a swordsman Mii fighter in Sm4sh so clearly I can appreciate the character design if nothing else.

Waluigi prediction: 42%
He'll probably be seen as less likely than both Paper Mario and Captain Toad, but higher than Daisy and Pauline. I'm expecting his want to be huge however.

Nominations: Isabelle X 5

 

[Roberk]

Chance: 20%
Quite a solid pick considering Level-5's relationship with Nintendo. I've heard about how he has placed high on the ballot, and that's even higher if you don't count things like Goku or Home Depot. Might be a bit too niche though. Also, I totally see a shameless promotion of Jinbanyan from Yo-Kai Watch as a Level-5 rep instead.

Want: 80%
I remember having Curious Village as my first game on the DS. Pokemon? Nope. Mario? Nope. Young me had to deal with a puzzle game, but one I found delightful and it holds a special place in my heart to this day. I haven't played any of the other games though, and I feel like availability for third parties might be tight. It'd be awesome to have him in Smash though, I'd love to see Sakurai try to give him a moveset revolving around puzzles. Plus, I've heard his series has some pretty great soundtracks, those are always welcomed.

Oh yeah, the WAHH!
Prediction: 30%
I mean he the spinoff king. But should he be a part of a spinoff of such high quality that represents a large part of gaming history and culture as a whole?

 

[Wyoming]

Professor Layton

Chance: 1%
Think we have to examine this on the current day knowledge: for third parties, only big names got into the base roster. For DLC, Bayonetta kind of broke that due to the ballot. This will be Layton's biggest asset - the fan ballot. Yes he is known in a sense and has a rich history with Nintendo, but as far as third parties go he still seems fairly niche.

Until we see the direction third parties go in this game, for now I have to rate his chances fairly low. This could change with information and reveals, however!

Want: 50%
Cute and charming series. I know him more from the crossover with Ace Attorney, but his character oozes personality and it is a series worth representing. Not someone I truly need in Smash, but if he does that is cool.

Waluigi prediction: 34.5%

Noms: Phoenix Wright x3, Black Shadow x2

 

[Ghirahilda]

CLayton

Chance: 5% (5 in 100 or 1 in 20 of it happening)
His games are interesting, but I don't see him coming unless he did well in the ballot

Want: 5%
It's not the character I care most, but he is interesting

Nomitanions:
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character 5

WAAAAAH prediction: 22%

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Layton Chance AND Want: 10%

WAAluigi Predictions: 40%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Professor Layton:

Chance: 40%
The good professor's been quite close with the Nintendo name for quite some time, ever since the Nintendo DS games and they've seen plenty of commercial and critical success for being wonderful brain-teasers filled with mystery and intrigue. His series' closeness with Nintendo has been noted, and he's pretty well-known amongst the casual community.

I'd say what might stop Layton would probably be competition from other third-party choices that have big names in the industry, Crash, for example.

--Cutting short here - Uni homework/assignments.

Want: 80%
No real objections. He'd be fun in my opinion.

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Im abstaining

Nominations: Hades x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

I will make a nominations update tomorrow when I'm at work and therefore getting paid to do so.

Layton Chances 8%
As a group, some third party character (or two) feels almost guaranteed. As an individual, Layton has fierce competition from both first and third party characters. He's got a great relationship with Nintendo, but what his series is somewhat niche still, and overshadowed by another series from the same company.

Layton Want 35%
He is probably the best and most prominent potential representative for the puzzle genre that fits well.

Waaaaaa prediction: 24%

nominate:
Mach Rider x2, Toad x2, Balloon Fighter x1

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna end the day a bit later than usual at 10:00 PM since I have a huge paper I need to work on.

Layton
20% Chance

He has a fanbase, I will give him that. He theoretically did well on the ballot, sure. But I dunno I just feel he is not that likely. Maybe its the fact that YO Kai watch could hurt his chances. Maybe its the fact that moveset stuff for him could be a challenge, though possible. I dont know why, but I do not think he is that likely.

50% Want

A true neutral vote here, I have not played enough PL games. Need to pick them up.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

DAY ENDS AT 10:00 PM.

 

[Troykv]

Oh... Well...

I'll abstain then...

But I'll use my predictions/nominations regardless.

Predictions:

WAAAAAAAAAA: 26.5%

Nomination times!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Abstaining

Nominating: Lip x 5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Professor Layton

Chance 15% Not very likely.

Want 15% Don't really have any attachment to him and never played his games.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 3x
Skull Kid 2x

 

[Smasher 101]

Professor Layton

Chance: 30%
Want: 80%

Probably won't edit it in this time since I'll have a similar post on Jibanyan's day anyway so I can explain more then, but basically I actually think there's a good shot of a Level 5 character and if we get one it could go either way, and while I'm normally picky with third parties I strongly associate these guys with Nintendo anyway, I like Layton and I think he'd be pretty unique.

Waluigi prediction: 34.46%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[DaUsername]

Layton
Chance: 25%
It's possible.
Want: N/A
Haven't played a single Layton game yet, not even the Ace Attorney crossover (for some reason).

Waluigi prediction: Confirmed 45%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[MegaMarioMan9]

Professor Layton:
Chance: 20%
Not the most likely third-party rep, but he has a lot going for him. He's heavily associated with Nintendo and has a 10+ year history. Level-5's relationship with Nintendo has been great as of late, and the series is still getting new entries, even if they don't feature the Professor as the main character. Akihiro Hino (the series producer) has even shown interest in Layton's inclusion in Smash in the past. He may have competition with other third-parties and internally with Jibanyan, but he shouldn't be counted out. He may not be the most recognizable third-party character out there, but I don't see that as an issue considering we have Bayonetta.
Want: 100%
I love the Professor Layton series to death, and there's so much that could be done with his moveset. Various mechanisms he's built in the past like the coin slot machine gun and paraglider could be used in his specials, and his fencing skills could be utilized in part of his moveset, though it shouldn't be the main focus.

Nomination:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Xenigma]

THE DAY ENDS AT 10PM THAT'S 15 MINUTES FROM RIGHT AS I TYPE THIS SENTENCE I BETTER BE QUICK

PROFESSOR LAYTON
CHANCE - 5%
HE HAS A REASONABLY POPULAR SERIES BUT AS FAR AS THIRD PARTIES GO HE STILL SEEMS A STRANGE CHOICE
WANT - 0%
NOT THAT INTERESTED SORRY

NOMINATIONS - LUCINA X5
I REALLY LIKE LUCINA OKAY

WALUIGI PREDICTIONS - 27% CHANCE, 55% WANT
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[Celever]

Professor Layton:
Chance: 30%

Level-5 has a very close relationship with Nintendo, especially with the Professor Layton series which is exclusively on Nintendo systems. Kind of the poster-boy of modern Nintendo puzzler games, which is a significant part of their library right now. Very popular in Europe, which is a region Smash Bros. has never really tried to pander to before, so Prof Layton would be a good way to break that. Professor Layton is also a much longer-running, more iconic series than Yokai Watch, and on average sells roughly the same as Yokai Watch did, meaning that the Prof is the more viable choice of the two.

Want: 65%

I think puzzlers definitely deserve more representation, and Prof Layton is probably the representative of the genre with the most moveset potential, besides maybe Dillon.

Nominate: Balloon Fighter x3, Phoenix Wright x2

 

[ProfPeanut]

Professor Layton

Chances: 10%
Ah, the good professor himself, and yet another honorary Nintendo character that would've been in Smash by now under the right company name. Professor Layton stands for something tangibly unique in the world of video games - the gamification of a brainteaser book - and thanks to that niche saw a notable amount of success and fame as far as modern video game characters go. And given Level 5 and Nintendo's symbiotic relationship, Level-5 is certainly a forerunner as far as potential third-party sources go, substituting a long history with its modern-day successes.

Unfortunately, Professor Layton has one critical shortcoming: a distinguishably lacking amount of moveset potential.

As it turns out, when your entire game series involves you being uncompromisingly pacifist unless it's an anime action sequence, there's very little that's going to actually make sense for you to do in a fighting game. Not only is Layton's range of attacks limited to normal human things, but that range is also subtracted by the things that he wouldn't do because he's goddamn gentleman. And gentlemen do not punch people, or kick them into an infinite abyss, or swing at them with a metal pipe.

Want: 45%
I've loved the series enough to play every game that's starred the good man. Yet I can't really want Layton to be in Smash, because I don't like the idea of him turning away from his characteristics because he's in a fighting game of all places. In a situation where Layton must beat people up, his moveset would have to take concessions and do away with some of his gentleman personality to make that happen. You could do it, and no one could stop you, but there's almost no way you could do it without detracting from what makes Layton himself. Do it recklessly, and you'll take out a lot more of that than anymore means to see gone.

Of course, if Sakurai actually has enough of a crazy idea that he puts Layton into Smash, I'd main him in a heartbeat, no matter what the moveset was. I'd just avoid having to do that to Layton if it was up to me, unless I knew exactly how to make it work. (And I don't.)


Predictions
Waluigi: 33%

Nominations
Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) 5x

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Professor Layton

Chance: 18%

Level 5 is a decently big third party company and Layton is arguably their biggest character next to Jibanyan. But at least Professor Layton saw more success internationally.

Unless he fared well in the ballot, I can see him being added.

Want: 55%

I would like him, just that I would rather have Feenie instead. You know who I'm talking about.

Prediction: 28%

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Professor Layton
18.11% Chance
38.41% Want

The puzzle of Layton in Smash 5 has been solved. Layton has a chance, but people are not too optimistic. It appears he has fans, but they may not be on here. Maybe third party bitterness has affected peoples.

AwesomeAussie27 at the literal last second came in and posted, bringing layton up to a 38.41 want. Their chance score had a marginal effect that made it slightly lower, but I rounded up and it did not matter in the long run/


WALUIGI TIME, RATE WALUIGI. Also please predict for Chibi Robo tomorrow.

@a smart guy gets 5 extra noms today, they were the closest.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Waluigi

Chance: 35%

He's quite requested, but it's a matter of if we can get spinoff Mario characters this time around.

Want: 100%

Hell to the yes.

Prediction for Chibi Robo: 10%

Nomination: Sans x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Professor Layton want: 0% (5-10*)

His moveset doesn't excite me very much.

Nominations:

Neku x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Deleted member]

Waluigi

Chance: 5.5%

A popular character for sure, but Sakurai hasn't shown any desire to make him anything other than an assist.

Want: 85%

He'd be cool.

Prediction: Chibi-Robo - 12.4%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Professor Layton want: 0% (5-10*)

His moveset doesn't excite me very much.

Nominations:

FE spear user x5

Laytons day ended man, its WALUIGI time.

 

[Roberk]

Chance: 33%
A first-party character from the Mario series who has appeared in numerous games over the past 1-2 decades. Seems like a no-brainer, right? He's just, not that significant. At all. Barely any character development. He could represent the sports games though if Sakurai and Friends actually wanted those to be represented.

Want: 0%
He's so boring. He's that guy in the Mario Sports and Karts that I glance at and go: "oh yeah, the guy I know nothing about other than the fact that he's in every one of these games. Let me just pick literally anyone else because they've actually had an impact and are 'characters'" Look, maybe he'd be cool, but I just don't want this barebones husk of a "character" to be in Smash. I want to beat up Mario with Link while using a Ray Gun on a Pokemon Stage. I don't want to experience just some guy who just fills up the roster on Mario spin-off games. I legitimately want to be convinced that this guy can actually be significant enough for Smash, because to me right now it feels like he's not.

Prediction: 0.1%
Chibo-Robo is pretty much dead.

Noms: Pheonix Wright x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Waluigi:

Chance: 35%

Want: 0%
I really want to like this character, but there's too much missed potential. When he was introduced, I thought his character would grow beyond "Wario's spin-off partner." But alas, to this day, Waluigi is pretty much in that same spot. Waluigi really needs to either star in his own game, or branch out into another series like Warioware for instance. I'd love to see a Wario & Waluigi duo puzzle game or something.

Until then, I give Waluigi a 0%.

Nominations:
Snorlax x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Waluigi

Chance: 19%
How old Waluigi is. A consistent appearance in any spin-off Mario title, for want of a roster, he's technically the only one who could pull off using every imaginable prop from those games, because he's that off-kilter and desperate. In terms of representing the long history of spin-offs, there's no better vehicle for it than old Waaah.

This reasoning, of course, implies the significantly-forward presumption that Mario spin-off games (aside from Mario Kart) absolutely must be represented. This is something that has its own obstacles to clear, such as having a leg over the more-notable main Mario games that already have a gamut of potential newcomers to argue for. You could go for any of the other struggling Mario reps because there's just that few Mario slots to go around, or you could go give it to the guy who hasn't done anything of notability ever since he first picked up a tennis racket.

Want: 1%
The day Waluigi gets in is the day a Smash Bros. inclusion stops meaning anything. What does it say if anyone else gets in, if even Waluigi does? And if Waluigi gets in, what does that say about everyone else who doesn't get in? That they're worse and less deserving characters than the meme roster filler?

No.


Predictions
Chibi Robo: 11.5%

Nominations
Blue Bowser 5x

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Waluigi

Chance: 30%

In comparison to Daisy, he at least has a more unique body shape to work with. Despite his popularity, I am still unsure if we may get spinoff characters in Smash.

Want: 90%

He's a funny bloke that is ripe with potential for a crazy moveset. That's why he was made for Smash.

Prediction for Chibi Robo: 5%

Sadly little bot, sadly.

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Morbi]

Waluigi

Chance: 80%

Basically, he is the largest "feasible" Nintendo all-star remaining, period. The only real legitimate threat is Captain Toad, basically. Or Daisy if he wants to go the sports move-set route. It just depends on if he wants a pseudo-generic character to represent Toad as a whole or if he believes affirmative action is still necessary. Captain Toad has his game on the Switch, now, and overall people enjoy him. People seem to hate Daisy, at least within Smash circles. However, are they as powerful as a living meme? Nah.

Want: 100%

Waah! Waah! Waah! But seriously, he is my favorite Mario character, tied with Daisy.

 

[Sid-cada]

Waluigi

Chance - 25% - A big name Mario character that seems ripe for representing sports games, or just himself in general. Sadly, he's not in mainline games, which makes him more questionable of a choice. He's popular-ish, but I'm not convinced he's supper likely.

Want - 60% - I might laugh at a few of his moves, but I don't care much about him.


Predictions

Chibi-Robo - 3.45% - A dead franchise.


Nominations

Anna X5