Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TBone06]

I'll start with Dillon because it'll be short and sweet. I know very little about his series, but he looks like an interesting character. I'd give him maybe a 20% chance of being in, and a 25% want. I don't actively support him, but I would be happy for his fans if he was included. I do think he could be kind of cool.

Geno - Want 100%
Geno (look at DP) is obviously my number one most wanted character. I've wanted him in since Brawl, and even back when I was a wee lad in between 64 and Melee, he was on my CSS that I made. So I would love to see him in.

Chance - 50%
I really do think it's a coin flip. I second this comment above as well. If you give him 0%, I'm willing to bet that your decision is skewed on not liking him or frustration from his supporters. His popularity alone should warrant at least a chance. At the end of the day, his popularity is still pretty high. At the time of Brawl speculation, it wasn't nearly as long before he was in a game. But the fact he still has popularity, shows that there is demand for him. I wrote these points in the Geno Support Thread and I stand by them. Sure a lot of you will say it's inconclusive, but most speculation is. Every Geno supporter knows there are limitations on him, and I don't think anyone is seriously trying to argue him as a shoo in. For those who have felt personally offended or annoyed at Geno fans, obviously I can't apologize for everyone, but I know sometimes it's hard to root for someone who constantly gets dumped on. I know I never mean any harm, I'm just a 27 year old who wants to play a character that I first saw when I was 6. I think that's what's so special about the fact I support him. It brings me back to a time. I know he hasn't been in a game in a long time, I know there are other characters out there. But there is a lot of support for him, and honestly Sakurai speaking positively about him is something not every character has. Even Ridley who was frequently talked about in a negative sense got added. So I feel the mere fact that Sakurai acknowledged him is enough for a small chance.

- Geno getting a Mii Costume. At the point of Cloud's inclusion, there was no way that Square was going to get two characters as it was pretty late in the DLC run. It's also safe to say that there was no way Geno was going to get in before a Final Fantasy character. So the fact that he was included as a costume is huge in my opinion. Not only that, but like Geno Boost said, he was the only costume to get the splash screen. I think this is relevant. We already know that Inkling got the call up from costume to playable character, so I think it could happen again. I also feel the costume could potentially have been designed for Smash 4 with the plan to use it as a base in Smash 5, however that is just my opinion.
- It appears that Sakurai has shown he has used the Brawl polls/journal entries as a guideline to who he picks. Out of the 22 characters that were mentioned more than once, we have already seen nine of them confirmed as playable characters since Brawl and another six as AT's (although Isaac has not been confirmed as an AT this time around and I'd be very happy to see him added as a playable character as well). Since Ridley has been confirmed, Geno is the only one mentioned more than twice that hasn't been included in the game as either a playable character or AC. Again, I believe this is relevant. The list is shown below.
- Geno's maintained popularity, despite being playable in only one game. Many other characters that are in similar situations fade in popularity, but he still has a huge following.
- Sakurai has acknowledged the fact he wanted him in Brawl and Smash 4. Now that Square is clearly on board yet again, I don't think it's a stretch to add another Square character, especially since he originated from a Mario game.
- Sakurai including Ridley and Daisy (on top of every other playable character to date) shows he is doing what the fans are looking for. Aside from K. Rool, I don't think there is anyone who was on the same level as Ridley dating back to the Brawl era, who hasn't been included or deconfirmed.
- I also found the tweet by Nintendo of America very interesting as it was out of left field for them. Most people replied on that with Team Geno. Again, I think that shows the popularity is still there.

King Dedede(5) - CONFIRMED!
Diddy Kong(4) - CONFIRMED!
Geno(4)
Ike(4) - CONFIRMED!
Ridley(4) CONFIRMED!
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3) - CONFIRMED!
Krystal(3) AT
Takamaru(3) AT
Windwaker Link(3) CONFIRMED!
Animal Crossing MC(2) - CONFIRMED!
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2) AT
Jeff(2) AT
Kawasima(2) AT
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2) - CONFIRMED!
Mega Man(2) CONFIRMED!
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2) AT

 

[CometX-ing]

At this point, anyone who doesn’t understand the enduring popularity of Geno is just another underage who doesn’t respect their elders.

Or maybe people don't understand it because it just makes no sense? He's an anomaly, popular when he only had a single appearance years ago in a series that has long since moved on from him. Nintendo hasn't even made an attempt to acknowledge him, going so far as to straight up take out his cameo in the Super Star Saga Remake.

Sakurai also acknowledged Waluigi in Smash 4, a character who is not only very popular but also a first party from Nintendo's biggest franchise. If he can't get in, then how does a simple mii costume and splash screen mean he has to be at least 50. How does disagreeing with that make you underage?

You know who else got Splash Screens, Ice T, Abraham Lincoln and Elijah Wood, the idol group AKB48 even got a commercial, yet no one is saying they have a shot as real characters. Isaac, Lloyd, Heihachi and many others also got costumes, and yet I don't see any of their fans acting as uppity as you are.

Geno being a third party shoots his chances way down, because he now has to compete with other Square characters like Sora who are frankly more popular than him. There is plenty of reason to think his chances are low, and none of your point change them.

 

[SuperNintendoDisney]

I don't mean in the sense Sakurai can't see a way to make him function I mean he can't get the permission. When Geno becomes first party or Square becomes easier to work with then you've got a case.

In a world where Sonic, PAC-MAN, Mega Man, Snake, Cloud and Ryu are in the same game, you trying to tell me this?

You trying to tell me Square isn’t easier to work with when they allowed Cloud, of all people, to star in a Nintendo game? Cloud, the poster boy for Squares betrayal of Nintendo to Sony?

Cmon bro

Or maybe people don't understand it because it just makes no sense? He's an anomaly, popular when he only had a single appearance years ago in a series that has long since moved on from him. Nintendo hasn't even made an attempt to acknowledge him, going so far as to straight up take out his cameo in the Super Star Saga Remake.

Sakurai also acknowledged Waluigi in Smash 4, a character who is not only very popular but also a first party from Nintendo's biggest franchise. If he can't get in, then how does a simple mii costume and splash screen mean he has to be at least 50. How does disagreeing with that make you underage?

You know who else got Splash Screens, Ice T, Abraham Lincoln and Elijah Wood, the idol group AKB48 even got a commercial, yet no one is saying they have a shot as real characters. Isaac, Lloyd, Heihachi and many others also got costumes, and yet I don't see any of their fans acting as uppity as you are.

Geno being a third party shoots his chances way down, because he now has to compete with other Square characters like Sora who are frankly more popular than him. There is plenty of reason to think his chances are low, and none of your point change them.

So we are taking Ice T as a serious possibility?

You know why Waluigi didn’t get in? Sakurai didn’t want to add him.

You know who Sakurai wants to add? Yeah

Nothing you said is anything new, and you could replace “Geno” in your post with “Ridley” and you would sound similar to Ridley deniers a year ago

Cloud is also popular as hell and his game put JRPG on the map in the west. Geno is a character with one off appearance who neither company has acknowledge prior to or after Smash 4.

Ignoring the context of this reply, strawmanning, etc., the point is there are no legal issues or hurdles anymore to who Sakurai can use from Square with CLOUD STRIFE in the game

 

[CometX-ing]

In a world where Sonic, PAC-MAN, Mega Man, Snake, Cloud and Ryu are in the same game, you trying to tell me this?

You trying to tell me Square isn’t easier to work with when they allowed Cloud, of all people, to star in a Nintendo game? Cloud, the poster boy for Squares betrayal of Nintendo to Sony?

Cmon bro

Cloud is also popular as hell and his game put JRPG on the map in the west. Geno is a character with one off appearance who neither company has acknowledge prior to or after Smash 4.

 

[Honest Slug]

I don't mean in the sense Sakurai can't see a way to make him function I mean he can't get the permission. When Geno becomes first party or Square becomes easier to work with then you've got a case.

Same argument used against Snake.

They were able to get Cloud twice so I don't know how that goes against Geno's chances, if anything Square seems more on board than ever.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Geno Chance: 60%
Sakurai has acknowledged Geno's popularity and he has a working relationship with Square Enix so his chances have increased significantly.
Dillon Chance: 5%
With such a limited pool of newcomers Dillon is neither notable nor popular enough to get in.
Abstaining from want.
Nominations x5: Thwomp

 

[Organization XIII]

In a world where Sonic, PAC-MAN, Mega Man, Snake, Cloud and Ryu are in the same game, you trying to tell me this?

You trying to tell me Square isn’t easier to work with when they allowed Cloud, of all people, to star in a Nintendo game? Cloud, the poster boy for Squares betrayal of Nintendo to Sony?

Cmon bro

The same people who wouldn't let Nintendo have him for a 5 second cameo in the remake of Super Star Saga. The same people he negotiated with for 4 and only got a costume instead of Geno being fully playable. The same people Sakurai said himself are difficult to work with. Yeah, I feel completely justified and assured that Sakurai can't get Geno due to licensing issues. But hey, I'll gladly meet you in the middle and say if Square wasn't a hindrance his chances would be obscenely high.

 

[TBone06]

I don't mean in the sense Sakurai can't see a way to make him function I mean he can't get the permission. When Geno becomes first party or Square becomes easier to work with then you've got a case.


Yeah ignorance it's that 100% not that I came to different conclusion based on the evidence

But who is to say that they aren't working together? Them getting Cloud in the game, as well as the costume shows they are willing to play ball. If they didn't include him at all, then I can understand, maybe he's forgotten about. But the fact that this happened so late in the DLC run means they were probably running out of funds, and couldn't add too many more characters. If it was a choice between Cloud and Geno, Cloud will win every time, and no one will fault them for that. This time around they are working together from day one. I think that means there is a much stronger chance that limitations won't be as extreme as they will have more time and funds to go on. But the fact that Square is on board means that argument isn't really that strong. Of course we don't know what goes on behind closed doors, but Square is clearly open to working together on this game.

 

[Organization XIII]

Same argument used for Snake.

They were able to get Cloud twice so I don't know how that goes against Geno's chances, if anything Square seems more on board than ever.

Yeah, it's hard to believe the face of their biggest franchise is allowed in Smash and yet they leave out a character they never try to acknowledge and wouldn't even be in a small cameo for the Super Star Saga remake.

But who is to say that they aren't working together? Them getting Cloud in the game, as well as the costume shows they are willing to play ball. If they didn't include him at all, then I can understand, maybe he's forgotten about. But the fact that this happened so late in the DLC run means they were probably running out of funds, and couldn't add too many more characters. If it was a choice between Cloud and Geno, Cloud will win every time, and no one will fault them for that. This time around they are working together from day one. I think that means there is a much stronger chance that limitations won't be as extreme as they will have more time and funds to go on. But the fact that Square is on board means that argument isn't really that strong. Of course we don't know what goes on behind closed doors, but Square is clearly open to working together on this game.

I guess it's possible by then they were running out of budget for DLC but they would have to pay licensing fees for the costume as well so I don't know how logical it is to assume price was the reason he wasn't included.

 

[DaUsername]

Geno
Chance: N/A
This character is in such a unique situation that I'm not sure what to rate him.
Want: 70%
He's cool.

Dillon
Chance: N/A
Want: 30%
I'm not really a fan, but I wouldn't mind him being included.

Steve prediction: 10%
Chibi robo prediction: 15%
Noms: Smash Run x10

 

[Honest Slug]

Yeah, it's hard to believe the face of their biggest franchise is allowed in Smash and yet they leave out a character they never try to acknowledge and wouldn't even be in a small cameo for the Super Star Saga remake.

Do realize that was a remake made to be cheap with reusing the engine from Dream Team? Do you see the possibility that maybe they just didn't want to bother with it since it was such a small cameo? How do you know that they tried to get him and failed?

 

[TBone06]

Yeah, it's hard to believe the face of their biggest franchise is allowed in Smash and yet they leave out a character they never try to acknowledge and wouldn't even be in a small cameo for the Super Star Saga remake.


I guess it's possible by then they were running out of budget for DLC but they would have to pay licensing fees for the costume as well so I don't know how logical it is to assume price was the reason he wasn't included.

It's a combination of things though. I honestly feel timing was against them at this point. We weren't going to get Cloud and someone else when we still had the ballot character. I would imagine fees for a costume wouldn't be as much as making the full on character, but these are the types of things we can't really grasp unless we know exactly what the situation is, so it's speculation one side or another whether either of us are right or wrong.

 

[Ze Diglett]

The same people who wouldn't let Nintendo have him for a 5 second cameo in the remake of Super Star Saga. The same people he negotiated with for 4 and only got a costume instead of Geno being fully playable. The same people Sakurai said himself are difficult to work with. Yeah, I feel completely justified and assured that Sakurai can't get Geno due to licensing issues. But hey, I'll gladly meet you in the middle and say if Square wasn't a hindrance his chances would be obscenely high.

M&L:SS+BM was a budget title, so it's likely they didn't have room in the budget to pay royalties to Square Enix for a simple throwaway cameo that, let's be real, very few people honestly give a crap about. Smash 4, on the other hand, was likely a combination of budget constraints and time constraints on top of that since Smash 4's DLC season was nearing its end with Cloud and they wouldn't have had time to realistically add two new Square Enix reps, so given the choice of one of the two, Sakurai reasonably chose Cloud and saved Geno, the fan favorite, for a game where his inclusion would be more appropriate (like now, perhaps). Besides, do you honestly think Square Enix would have said "No, we won't let you use Geno as a unique fighter. We will, however, allow Geno to be a costume!" if Sakurai approached them with the idea? No, they would have either said yes and let him do with Geno as he pleased within reason, or more likely, they would have said no and put forth the offer of Cloud, their golden boy, instead. Sakurai likely knew this and cut out the middleman by just asking for Cloud and a Geno costume on the side if he was lucky. And they gave him both.

 

[CometX-ing]

Do realize that was a remake made to be cheap with reusing the engine from Dream Team? Do you see the possibility that maybe they just didn't want to bother with it since it was such a small cameo? How do you know that they tried to get him and failed?

They were apparently buddy buddy enough to get Cloud in Smash and Geno as a Mii Costume. You mean to tell me it could be anything close to difficult to get permission to use a character that Square doesn't even touch for a simple cameo to please his fans?

 

[colder_than_ice]

Geno
Chance: 30% - He's still very popular and Sakurai himself has expressed willingness to add him.
Want: 10% - I can't help but see him as too much of a one-hit-wonder. I just wish Nintendo and Square would work out some sort of deal to have him more Mario games, than having him in Smash would feel more natural.

Dillon
Chance: 5% - His series was never particularly popular but I suppose I can sort of imagine him as a Sonic echo.
Want: 0% - I've never been a big fan of cowboy motifs.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

I always got the impression that Cloud, as one of the latest DLC characters, was probably one of the last characters made. Given his lack of balance compared to the other characters, he and Bayonetta seem to have had the least amount of time for testing.

If Sakurai wants Geno, he'd have to approach Square. Potentially, Sakurai has always wanted both Geno and Cloud, but clearly Cloud is the bigger name, so if Square was the latest-joining company, they had to choose one to get Smash4's DLC out in a reasonable amount of time.

There's no confirmation for this, but seems reasonable given what we know of Sakurai and the dev cycle of Smash4. That's why it seems so illogical to me (and many others) when people say 'Geno hasn't gotten into Smash for 4 games, why would this time be any different?'

Because the situation is clearly different.

Not going to get into a relevancy debate, since Retro characters like Ice Climbers exist, but certainly Geno's status as a 'Retro' character won't ever change while newly-relevant characters will very steadily stop being newly-relevant. Honestly, I think for this reason, Sakurai is much more likely to choose characters from older series. They are 'Historically relevant'.

Geno:
Chance: 70%
Want: 90%

Dillon:
Chance: 40%
Want: 40%

Nom: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Opossum]

Kind of off-topic, but...

Oguma(2)

Man, it's so weird to me that Ogma placed on that poll. Like, even within Shadow Dragon itself there are at least four or five units besides Marth who would theoretically get in before Ogma. Then again Ogma's awesome, so they had good taste.
Dammit I want Ogma in Smash now.

 

[TBone06]

I always got the impression that Cloud, as one of the latest DLC characters, was probably one of the last characters made. Given his lack of balance compared to the other characters, he and Bayonetta seem to have had the least amount of time for testing.

If Sakurai wants Geno, he'd have to approach Square. Potentially, Sakurai has always wanted both Geno and Cloud, but clearly Cloud is the bigger name, so if Square was the latest-joining company, they had to choose one to get Smash4's DLC out in a reasonable amount of time.

There's no confirmation for this, but seems reasonable given what we know of Sakurai and the dev cycle of Smash4. That's why it seems so illogical to me (and many others) when people say 'Geno hasn't gotten into Smash for 4 games, why would this time be any different?'

Because the situation is clearly different.

Not going to get into a relevancy debate, since Retro characters like Ice Climbers exist, but certainly Geno's status as a 'Retro' character won't ever change while newly-relevant characters will very steadily stop being newly-relevant. Honestly, I think for this reason, Sakurai is much more likely to choose characters from older series. They are 'Historically relevant'.

Well put. In my eyes, IF the reason he wasn't put in Brawl or Smash 4 was because of issues with Square, the fact that they are on board now should eliminate that argument. Square is clearly willing to work together, which means from the start, he has a better shot than last game. Yes, there are still hurdles, but Geno has never had a fair shot from the get-go like he has for this game.

 

[Erureido]

I'm still not feeling I can give an accurate score for these characters, so I'm double abstaining again, as well as abstaining from predictions.

I have a feeling I won't be that active again until the Professor Layton re-rate, but we'll see.

------

Nominations:

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[Honest Slug]

They were apparently buddy buddy enough to get Cloud in Smash and Geno as a Mii Costume. You mean to tell me it could be anything close to difficult to get permission to use a character that Square doesn't even touch for a simple cameo to please his fans?

It was a cheap remake and Geno was an easy corner to cut.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Geno
Chance: 10%
- It’s tricky. Sakurai himself has mentioned that he wanted to put Geno in the past amd that’s how the Geno Mii Fighter costume came to be.
Want: 7%
- While I did love Super Mario RPG, Geno never caught my attention. I’d rather have Cecil, Kain, WoL or Bartz.

Dillon
Chance: 10%
- Well, he’s decently popular and he’s relevant.
Want: 3%
- I’d rather have a different character.

Nominations
Steve: 11%
Chibi Robo: 16.5%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[Organization XIII]

M&L:SS+BM was a budget title, so it's likely they didn't have room in the budget to pay royalties to Square Enix for a simple throwaway cameo that, let's be real, very few people honestly give a crap about. Smash 4, on the other hand, was likely a combination of budget constraints and time constraints on top of that since Smash 4's DLC season was nearing its end with Cloud and they wouldn't have had time to realistically add two new Square Enix reps, so given the choice of one of the two, Sakurai reasonably chose Cloud and saved Geno, the fan favorite, for a game where his inclusion would be more appropriate (like now, perhaps). Besides, do you honestly think Square Enix would have said "No, we won't let you use Geno as a unique fighter. We will, however, allow Geno to be a costume!" if Sakurai approached them with the idea? No, they would have either said yes and let him do with Geno as he pleased within reason, or more likely, they would have said no and put forth the offer of Cloud, their golden boy, instead. Sakurai likely knew this and cut out the middleman by just asking for Cloud and a Geno costume on the side if he was lucky. And they gave him both.

I absolutely do because Sakurai wants him and so he would have tried his best to get him playable and all he could manage was an outfit. There's no way that Square wouldn't have known every last detail of how a character they own was going to be used. That's unreasonable and they didn't sign off on him being playable. His chances don't look good to me this time either because of that.

It's a combination of things though. I honestly feel timing was against them at this point. We weren't going to get Cloud and someone else when we still had the ballot character. I would imagine fees for a costume wouldn't be as much as making the full on character, but these are the types of things we can't really grasp unless we know exactly what the situation is, so it's speculation one side or another whether either of us are right or wrong.

I mean you're right everything here is speculation so I freely admit I could be 100% wrong but see I feel like DLC had no period it had to end by Sakurai chose which characters to add he worked on them and then he geared up for the next Smash so if it was possible to work on Geno then he likely would have come along with Cloud. As for the fees I mean you're paying for using the character's likeness so I don't know if that means smaller parts would cost less but it's not unreasonable. Still, I don't think price is the biggest issue for Geno. If Cloud has far more content with him this time around then maybe his chances will improve in my eyes but for now, I think Geno still has a good amount of hurdles.

 

[CometX-ing]

It was a cheap remake and Geno was an easy corner to cut.

Once again, they were already buddy buddy with Square, so how hard would it be to get a cameo.

And if it's that difficult then why bother with a Mii Costume?

 

[A Distant Demon]

Once again, they were already buddy buddy with Square, so how hard would it be to get a cameo.

And if it's that difficult then why bother with a Mii Costume?

Why go through all of the hassle through licensing for a remake when you can just . . .not.

Being "buddy-buddy" doesnt change the fact that it's a lot of extra work. Espeically when comparing a miniscule cameo, to a much bigger piece of work. . .that is also being sold individually for profit.

 

[Ze Diglett]

I absolutely do because Sakurai wants him and so he would have tried his best to get him playable and all he could manage was an outfit. There's no way that Square wouldn't have known every last detail of how a character they own was going to be used. That's unreasonable and they didn't sign off on him being playable. His chances don't look good to me this time either because of that.

Do you honestly think that just because Sakurai wanted Geno, he would have sprung for him over the Cloud, literal-video-game-hall-of-famer Cloud, bringing-JRPGs-into-the-mainstream Cloud, closest-thing-Square-Enix-has-to-a-mascot Cloud? Simply put, no. Cloud was, and still is, too much of a big deal for anyone, even the most rabid of Geno fanboys, to pass up if they were in Sakurai's position. And give me one good reason Square Enix would object to Geno being a unique character, but regardless gave the green light to a Geno costume. Because forgive me, but I can't think of one.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Once again, they were already buddy buddy with Square, so how hard would it be to get a cameo.

And if it's that difficult then why bother with a Mii Costume?

Because that's not how licensing works. Even if Square WANTED to have Geno show up in the M&L remake, they still have to charge *something* for the right to use their character or they forfeit the ability to do something about people using their characters in the future. Sets bad precedent.

I don't think Smash4's issue with Geno was that Sakurai couldn't afford the rights to Geno's likeness. Clearly he got that since he made a Mii Fighter costume. The issue was most likely timing. Smash4 was nearly at the end of its *DLC* dev cycle by the time licensing with Square presumably occurred. It seems like there was simply no time to realize two fully new characters. Considering what we know about how much more work it is to make a fully new character rather than a costume, it's obvious that the main hurdle to Geno's inclusion has already been overcome: Licensing is done and all he needed was more Time.

 

[CometX-ing]

Why go through all of the hassle through licensing for a remake when you can just . . .not.

Being "buddy-buddy" doesnt change the fact that it's a lot of extra work. Espeically when comparing a miniscule cameo, to a much bigger piece of work. . .that is also being sold individually for profit.

Realistically, at the time that the remake was being developed, Nintendo was either already working with Square to get Cloud and the Geno costume in Smash or working with them to get Cloud back in Smash Ultimate. So they already were working together, it wouldn't be asking much to include a small cameo for a character who I will ones again remind you, Square has never used after his appearance in Super Mario RPG save for the costume. There is also the matter of the very existence of the cameo in the original game in the first place. Geno was always a Square character, so why go through the "hassle" then but not now? Regardless of whether or not you consider the original game to be a budget title the original cameo was so insignificant even then that if it was such a hassle they wouldn't have any reason to include it other than time consuming and expensive fan service. I also doubt it's a matter of their relationship, because literally giving them the rights to Cloud should tell you at was just as good then as it was years prior, if not more so.

 

[Organization XIII]

Do you honestly think that just because Sakurai wanted Geno, he would have sprung for him over the Cloud, literal-video-game-hall-of-famer Cloud, bringing-JRPGs-into-the-mainstream Cloud, closest-thing-Square-Enix-has-to-a-mascot Cloud? Simply put, no. Cloud was, and still is, too much of a big deal for anyone, even the most rabid of Geno fanboys, to pass up if they were in Sakurai's position. And give me one good reason Square Enix would object to Geno being a unique character, but regardless gave the green light to a Geno costume. Because forgive me, but I can't think of one.

What no not over Cloud alongside him. Who said anything about getting in over Cloud? A reason? Ok, how about the company would want a better company to receive the media attention of getting into Smash. I know you're going to bring up that "would a Mii costume bring attention too? So why let Geno have that and not a better character?" Easy no one cares about Mii outfits or ATs we all only care about actual characters and the companies know that. That's why Geno getting a costume was noteworthy for about 2 seconds and then most people stopped talking about it.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

So they already were working together, it wouldn't be asking much to include a small cameo

M&L Remake's development is not Smash5's development. Licensing Geno for one project does not mean that they have licensed him for the other. Nintendo would still have to pay licensing fees both times. Under no circumstances has Square ever 'given' another company the right to use their characters without some form of payment. They basically sacrifice all copyright claim on their characters if they do that. (I'm simplifying things a bit for brevity, because copyright law is weird, but yes, BASICALLY.)

You DO ask a good question about why Geno's cameo was in the original M&L game, though! From what I understand of the development period of M&L in Japan, there was a push to make the Mario & Luigi series (called literally Mario & Luigi RPG in Japan) the successor to the Mario RPG name since they were already planning to spin the Paper Mario series (originally called Mario RPG in Japan) into different genres. This is just speculation based on these facts, but putting in a small cameo of the most popular original character from the progenitor of the Mario RPG franchise seems like a good nod to its legacy.

With a remake after 6 more titles of a well-established Mario & Luigi RPG franchise, this 'passing of the torch' cameo is pretty redundant and certainly a significant cost in licensing fees for what amounts to a budget remake.

 

[Ze Diglett]

What no not over Cloud alongside him. Who said anything about getting in over Cloud? A reason? Ok, how about the company would want a better company to receive the media attention of getting into Smash. I know you're going to bring up that "would a Mii costume bring attention too? So why let Geno have that and not a better character?" Easy no one cares about Mii outfits or ATs we all only care about actual characters and the companies know that. That's why Geno getting a costume was noteworthy for about 2 seconds and then most people stopped talking about it.

Well, a lot of reasons have been listed in this thread as to why Square Enix couldn't have gotten two unique reps in the Smash 4 DLC season (including, but not necessarily limited to budgetary constraints, time constraints, and Smash 4's DLC team being smaller than its base game team), but if you don't wanna buy any of them them, then I'm not quite sure what to tell you.
As for Square Enix wanting to push other characters instead of Geno... okay, I guess, but who would they realistically have that they'd rather push than give the green light to a character that they know damn well is incredibly popular and would generate a lot of positive press on his own? Sora's just about the only one that comes to mind with KH3 on the horizon, and even he has a bunch of legal and logistical hoops that would need be jumped through for his inclusion, at least a hell of a lot more than Geno, which makes me hesitant to say he's more likely.

 

[Koopaul]

Dillon
Chance: 45%
Yeah I don't think he has a bad chance at all. The developers of Dillon actually seem interested in having him in Smash.
Want: 90%
Probably one of the coolest new characters Nintendo has made in the past couple of years.

Geno
Chance: 14%
With 3rd parties it's always a chore. Sakurai even stated how difficult it was to get all the 3rd Party characters back in Smash Ultimate. It kind of makes me feel like all his effort and focus on 3rd parties was to get all the old ones back and I'm not sure if he's willing to negotiate more new ones. However he has stated he wanted the guy in the past. Geno might be the most likely 3rd party newcomer if he's willing to do that.
Want: 10%
Geno is a cool character and I'm sure he's fun but man, if Sakurai is going negotiate a new 3rd Party I hope it will be something else.

Nominations:
Barbara x3
Slime x2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Geno
Chance: 25% - Sakurai has confirmed to have considered him before, and Square Enix is involved from the beginning this time around. Considering they seem to have no qualms with Nintendo utilizing the property (as he got a Mii costume) and his popularity amongst the Smash fanbase, I definitely can see him being chosen... however, with limited roster space and lack of relevance in the modern age, I could see him being passed on or even becoming an assist trophy. It's now or never for Geno, and his chances are the best they've ever been, but their are limits on newcomers this time around. Base roster or bust.
Want: 0% - I have no personal attachment to Geno or his game; it's a one-off RPG that hasn't been relevant in years and their are so, so many more deserving and marketable Mario characters left...

Dillon
Chance: 25% - He's got an interesting situation; he has some form of recent relevancy and tendency of Sakurai on representing the last generation of hardware gives Dillon some precedence for a Smash spot, and as a Nintendo character, there's no rights to secure. With that said, he doesn't bring all that much unique to the table based on his actual gameplay in his series; it's all stuff Sonic can already do, unless Sakurai really wants to play up the Tower Defense and cowboy elements.
Want: 45% - If nothing else, I want an actual cowboy playable in Smash. Not a Mii dressed like one, not a single move relating to them on Duck Hunt, a full character. Bring him on!

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Well, a lot of reasons have been listed in this thread as to why Square Enix couldn't have gotten two unique reps in the Smash 4 DLC season (including, but not necessarily limited to budgetary constraints, time constraints, and Smash 4's DLC team being smaller than its base game team), but if you don't wanna buy any of them them, then I'm not quite sure what to tell you.
As for Square Enix wanting to push other characters instead of Geno... okay, I guess, but who would they realistically have that they'd rather push than give the green light to a character that they know damn well is incredibly popular and would generate a lot of positive press on his own? Sora's just about the only one that comes to mind with KH3 on the horizon, and even he has a bunch of legal and logistical hoops that would need be jumped through for his inclusion, at least a hell of a lot more than Geno, which makes me hesitant to say he's more likely.

I mean Dragon Quest. It's huge in Japan and never quite taken off in the West. What better way to try and help foster a bigger audience worldwide than a game that makes everyone who appears in it 60 times more recognizable?

 

[Ze Diglett]

I mean Dragon Quest. It's huge in Japan and never quite taken off in the West. What better way to try and help foster a bigger audience worldwide than a game that makes everyone who appears in it 60 times more recognizable?

Eh, fair enough. At this point, I'm willing to just say "to each their own" on this one.

 

[ZTurtle]

With that said, he doesn't bring all that much unique to the table based on his actual gameplay in his series; it's all stuff Sonic can already do, unless Sakurai really wants to play up the Tower Defense and cowboy elements.

Being honest here, this is the argument against Dillon that bugs me the most. Could you please explain how exactly Sonic does everything that he can do? Because as someone who's played all three of games, I don't see how that's the case. I agree that he might not be super unique unless he brought in his tower defense elements, but don't think he would play like Sonic at all.

 

[Smasher 101]

Geno

Chance: 35%

His chances are higher than they've ever been. He's popular, Sakurai has noted him, and Square Enix is in from the start this time. If there is a focus on popular choices, now is the time to add him. I'm not going to rank him higher than this because his only major appearance was ages ago and there are other competitors for Mario and Square Enix that have more history, but being more notable doesn't always mean more likely and I have a feeling relevancy might not necessarily be as much of a factor this time. He absolutely has a chance, and I'd honestly lean towards calling him the most likely newcomer for both Mario and SE at this point.

Want: 1%

That said I'm not that interested and have no connection to him whatsoever. I see him as fairly unimportant both Mario and third-party wise, and there's others I'd rather see in both categories.

Dillon

Chance: 15%

His series is current and growing, and he's survived the assist trophy slaughter so far. But it's still a fairly small franchise and the most recent game probably doesn't help much, and I don't think he's as popular as other characters either. At this point I think he's likely going to repeat his assist role, but a promotion is certainly not impossible.

Want: 70%

He'd be a cool fighter, I think. He's not a high priority for me, but I'd welcome him.

Nominations: Tails x10

 

[DjinnandTonic]

I mean Dragon Quest. It's huge in Japan and never quite taken off in the West. What better way to try and help foster a bigger audience worldwide than a game that makes everyone who appears in it 60 times more recognizable?

Square Enix has a lot of different properties they might want in a crossover fighter that would garner lots of attention. Dragon Quest is a big one, but it lacks a stand out representative of the whole series. Erdick/Loto... maybe? Slime... maybe? It's notable that they chose Cloud for FF instead of something like Black Mage or Chocobo. The DQ brand doesn't have that same of kind of 'main character'. Its mascot is far more recognizable than any character in that series that has a name. I think this kind of indecision for an obvious rep might hurt DQ's chances at inclusion. (For all that I think DQ most definitely would be considered a gaming all-star for Square Enix and deserves a spot.)

However, in contrast, Geno's reason for inclusion isn't in question. He'd get in because he's popular, his game is a well-regarded classic that represents the era of Square/Nintendo's partnership, and because Sakurai himself likes him. This isn't to say Geno is a lock over a Dragon Quest rep or anything, but it is a hurdle for that series that Geno doesn't have.

 

[Organization XIII]

Square Enix has a lot of different properties they might want in a crossover fighter that would garner lots of attention. Dragon Quest is a big one, but it lacks a stand out representative of the whole series. Erdick/Loto... maybe? Slime... maybe? It's notable that they chose Cloud for FF instead of something like Black Mage or Chocobo. The DQ brand doesn't have that same of kind of 'main character'. Its mascot is far more recognizable than any character in that series that has a name. I think this kind of indecision for an obvious rep might hurt DQ's chances at inclusion. (For all that I think DQ most definitely would be considered a gaming all-star for Square Enix and deserves a spot.)

However, in contrast, Geno's reason for inclusion isn't in question. He'd get in because he's popular, his game is a well-regarded classic that represents the era of Square/Nintendo's partnership, and because Sakurai himself likes him. This isn't to say Geno is a lock over a Dragon Quest rep or anything, but it is a hurdle for that series that Geno doesn't have.

DQ was just an example and Geno's reason for inclusion was never under question. It is Sakurai's ability to secure him as playable that remains to be seen.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Being honest here, this is the argument against Dillon that bugs me the most. Could you please explain how exactly Sonic does everything that he can do? Because as someone who's played all three of games, I don't see how that's the case. I agree that he might not be super unique unless he brought in his tower defense elements, but don't think he would play like Sonic at all.

Allow me to reiterate; everything unique Dillon can do is done by other characters. Using his claws? Bowser does that plenty, Ridley does too. Spinning around in a ball real fast? Sonic's schtick. Heck, even if Sakurai took some creative liberties and really played up the cowboy thing with a revolver, Bayonetta, Inklings, and Mii Gunner kinda already do that stuff. I haven't admittedly played much of Dillon's Rolling Western, but from I have played he'd really not bring anything new to the table.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I just don’t buy the argument that if Sakurai wanted him in a Smash, he would have been included in Smash 4’s DLC plan. Smash 4 DLC felt odd anyway, but I’d say any amount of getting Square on board involved putting Cloud as a priority. Sakurai spoke about how long it took to make characters for DLC with his small team. I don’t think we have any proof of licensing issues or Square being unwilling to play ball (I think the Mii costume is more indicative of the opposite).

Plus I imagine Sakurai would have seen the outcry at Geno being a Mii costume and possibly used that to gauge his current popularity as well. That seems to be the full proof way to see how big the community of supporters is, by deconfirming their character and seeing the fallout on a more comical note. Less so Waluigi because I think a good portion of the out cry is less genuine than in most other cases.