I’ll be upfront on this: I’m very,
very biased, and as such it is quite possible I'm overrating his chances. That said, I think the following is a pretty fair analysis, so let’s get ranting!
Isaac
Chance - 25%
First off, let’s address the elephant in the room: Golden Sun is dead. I think it’s criminal that Camelot has been relegated to the Mario Tennis/Golf company, and it’s sadly likely that most of the people who truly want to make Golden Sun happen don’t even work there anymore, but there’s no getting around that now. I may hold out hope for new Golden Sun, new Advance Wars, new F-Zero, but clearly Nintendo isn’t worried about such series when their studios can be working on safe money-makers. If relevancy is all that matters in selecting a character, Isaac would be a 0% because, unless there is a game being made we don’t know about, he no longer has any.
But if you’re here, if you’ve actually thought about how anything is selected for Smash, you know that just isn’t true. Duck Hunt from Sm4sh is perhaps the most obvious example of relevancy not being the end-all criteria, but so is Lucas (a veteran, but one from a Japanese-only game from 2006), Roy (also a veteran from a Japanese-only game, this one from
2002), and Cloud (effectively a Playstation character whose only Nintendo appearances are Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts spin-offs), among others. We’ve even got evidence that Geno in particular was seriously considered for the roster (
source, courtesy of
@PushDustIn), and, barring his 2003 Superstar Saga cameo, he hasn’t been notable since
1996. Sure, relevancy helps, as is obvious from our first newcomer this time around, but it’s far from the end-all-be-all many reviewers seem to be suggesting.
What about his Assist Trophy being removed? This is definitely an important point, and one that can be taken two ways. One possibility is that he was flat-out cut, which can’t be denied when he’s in the company of other Brawl ATs like Ray, Resetti, and Jill (which I’d argue should all return, but that’s just me). More likely to me, though, is that he was a low-priority character and thus wasn’t on the list of ATs to be ported/recreated in the event he made the cut. It’s entirely possible he was on the maybe list and just didn’t clear the bar due to Robin or Shulk or whoever else, and considering we know Geno was in such consideration and didn’t make it, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that happened.
What about not being DLC, particularly a Mii costume? Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but frankly, I just don’t think he’s “DLC-worthy.” Any DLC characters have to be high demand enough to sell units, and that’s what we see from the seven that made it: three veterans, three third-parties, and the protagonist from expected hit Fire Emblem Fates. Meanwhile, Mii costumes were almost entirely from franchises already in the game (including Takamaru, who got an AT) and some additional third-party franchises like Tales and Monster Hunter. Frankly, Isaac just doesn’t fit those categories, and I wouldn’t expect him to be DLC in this game either.
What Isaac does have, rather importantly, is a vocal fanbase. Much like Geno, Ridley, and King K. Rool, he’s a character whom a passionate minority have been asking for for quite a while now. This is also where the ballot comes in: while we can’t be certain of the results, it seems fair to believe that Isaac did respectably well as he was one of the characters I saw with a particularly fervent fan push during the vote, along with some other Smash community favorites. If that vote actually meant anything, most of the newcomers should be pulled from there (barring games that didn’t exist then like ARMS) as the results are a direct signal of what fans are craving.
Indeed, my rating comes primarily from that assumption: the ballot matters, and Isaac is among the characters who most stands to benefit from that vote. Everything else follows pretty naturally from there: Golden Sun is an unrepresented franchise, Isaac has ridiculous move potential, he's got
one of the coolest possible Final Smashes out there, and in general he would fit in very, very well within Smash. His franchise may be dead in the water, yet a vocal fanbase persists, one that has ingrained itself at a minimum among the western Smash community. I still don’t think his inclusion is especially likely: I think the most likely scenario at 50% is that we just get his Assist Trophy back to appease ballot voters, while there’s a 25% chance I’m totally wrong and Golden Sun maybe doesn’t even make the soundtrack this time around. His best chance was absolutely Sm4sh, and failing there means he will probably never be a likely inclusion again. Still, I don’t believe it’s over yet, and Sakurai willing, I think the Golden Sun may yet rise.
Want - 100%
My most wanted character by far.
Nominations - Lucina x5
Bandana Dee Predictions - 37.75% Chance, 62.25% Want
I expect this to be a bit of a weird one. Ratings all over the board, both on chance and want. I have to admit, though, he probably deserves to do pretty well!
