Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ZTurtle]

EDIT: I wrote a big wall of text here that I think was kinda pointless and dumb so I deleted it. Mods can delete this if they see it (Am I doing that right?).

 

[papagenos]

Geno -
Chance: 85% Sakurai has said he'd be perfect for smash and that he wants him, Geno scored very high in the Brawl polling days and likely has kept his popularity as he was already a "dated" character back then and people still talk about Geno today so he almost certainly scored high on the ballot, he got a mii costume plus a splash headline thing like all the smash 4 newcomers, square got into smash late in development of the last game and I cant see getting square on board and not repping final fantasy first and foremost... now the doors open for Geno this time. it's literally now or never, but im very hopeful.
Want: 100% hes part of my username here, I've wanted him for over a decade now, little Mac/Banjo Kazooie/ and Geno have been my top three most wanted smash characters since forever and things have not changed.
Dillon -
Chances: 10% the assist trophy hasnt been shown yet but I just dont think his series is popular enough to become playable.
Want: 50% i dont personally want him very much but I'll admit he has a cool design and a western/cowboy/sheriff type character is missing in smash, he's the type of character I dont want much but I feel like if he somehow got in I'd learn to really like him as a smash character despite not having any connection to him myself.

 

[Deleted member]

Um... Holy ****. Did I just start a battle yesterday?
Re: Mario RPG
If being from a fondly remembered classic is the main reason for Geno's support, that just gives me more reasons to be against him.
Nostalgia is something I take issue with in the Smash fanbase. I've seen way too many people reject characters because it's not what they grew up with. And I mean... to each their own, but that is a really close-minded mentality right there.
I prefer a mix of old and new when it comes to the roster. It's the main reason I'm hoping the ballot isn't the only thing that's going to influence the roster.

 

[RouffWestie]

Geno

Chance: 5%

A fan favorite, now having official recognition in Smash. I'm not fully convinced he'll make it this time, the Mii Costume is what I feel he'll be stuck with.

Want: 10%

Potentially interesting moveset, that's it. He's already playable in Crusade, and carries over the timed-hit mechanics from SMRPG, which I kinda like, so I would just play that if I really wanted to.

I can't say anything has improved his situation. To be more specific, he's not widely recognized outside of the community, he's not made a recent appearance in a new game, he's only a side character, and he's not being pushed by Square. But he has popularity and Sakurai wants him; I just doubt that's enough when newcomers are being chosen. I'd be completely surprised if he got in.
----------
Dillon
Chance: 15%
A franchise with a clear future, which is taken into account when newcomers are chosen. However, he's not widely recognized, which may hurt his chances.
Want: 30%

 

[BluePikmin11]

Those were not the only reasons people are driven to support Geno though, Lampy.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Genuinely though: why weren't any of Geno Mallow and Boshi/Booster/your favourite smrpg NPC here playable in Mario Sports Mix or Mario Hoops 3 on 3 over ninja, black mage, moogle, white mage, cactur or Slime?

Seemed like the perfect time to reintroduce smrpg elements in a Mario game that Square were involved in. Utterly missed opportunity.

 

[Deleted member]

Those were not the only reasons people are driven to support Geno though, Lampy.

I know it's not the only reason, but it's a major part of it.
It doesn't even cover all of the other things I have against him.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Um... Holy ****. Did I just start a battle yesterday?
Re: Mario RPG
If being from a fondly remembered classic is the main reason for Geno's support, that just gives me more reasons to be against him.
Nostalgia is something I take issue with in the Smash fanbase. I've seen way too many people reject characters because it's not what they grew up with. And I mean... to each their own, but that is a really close-minded mentality right there.
I prefer a mix of old and new when it comes to the roster. It's the main reason I'm hoping the ballot isn't the only thing that's going to influence the roster.

Well, I’ll say Super Mario RPG is a fondly remembered classic that mostly holds up as most RPGs do. I don’t think it’s necessarily a lot of people being close minded towards newer characters, just a handful of classic characters made certain impressions on them to the point where they want to see them in Smash.

Chibi-Robo, Ashley, and Bandanna Dee are the modern examples of this for me at this point. Especially Chibi-Robo who is now the new forgotten Nintendo character it seems...

 

[Deleted member]

Well, I’ll say Super Mario RPG is a fondly remembered classic that mostly holds up as most RPGs do. I don’t think it’s necessarily a lot of people being close minded towards newer characters, just a handful of classic characters made certain impressions on them to the point where they want to see them in Smash.

Chibi-Robo, Ashley, and Bandanna Dee are the modern examples of this for me at this point. Especially Chibi-Robo who is now the new forgotten Nintendo character it seems...

I didn't mean to generalize, but it seems like a lot of Smash fans are extremely opposed to newer characters because they didn't grow up with them.
Said close-minded mentality is one of the many reasons why I plan on quitting Smash Speculation after Ultimate.

 

[Zema]

I didn't mean to generalize, but it seems like a lot of Smash fans are extremely opposed to newer characters because they didn't grow up with them.
Said close-minded mentality is one of the many reasons why I plan on quitting Smash Speculation after Ultimate.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I see a lot of people support characters from games they themselves have never played. Just look through the K.Rool or Geno or any support threads and you can easily find some "I never played the game, but I support this character" kind of posts.

I, myself, have made one in the K.Rool thread.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I didn't mean to generalize, but it seems like a lot of Smash fans are extremely opposed to newer characters because they didn't grow up with them.
Said close-minded mentality is one of the many reasons why I plan on quitting Smash Speculation after Ultimate.

That is possibly fair. If it’s any consolation, if the big classic fan requests get in, I think that future Smash speculation may be much better. I could be wrong at that, but I think a lot of people who are looking to be satisfied with the likes of Geno, King K Rool, and so on would probably be pretty content I imagine. Again, I could be wrong with regards to that, but I’d like to see some new characters get the spotlight as most requested newcomers.

 

[WaddleMatt]

I didn't mean to generalize, but it seems like a lot of Smash fans are extremely opposed to newer characters because they didn't grow up with them.
Said close-minded mentality is one of the many reasons why I plan on quitting Smash Speculation after Ultimate.

I also seem to have noticed this.

It's like how most people who don't want Bandana Dee haven't even touched a Kirby game yet insist 3 is enough or so. Back on topic, well, I haven't played SMRPG but that doesn't mean I don't like Geno, I just would prefer modern Mario characters.

 

[Troykv]

Um... Holy ****. Did I just start a battle yesterday?
Re: Mario RPG
If being from a fondly remembered classic is the main reason for Geno's support, that just gives me more reasons to be against him.
Nostalgia is something I take issue with in the Smash fanbase. I've seen way too many people reject characters because it's not what they grew up with. And I mean... to each their own, but that is a really close-minded mentality right there.
I prefer a mix of old and new when it comes to the roster. It's the main reason I'm hoping the ballot isn't the only thing that's going to influence the roster.

I only would have issue with new characters if they are too new (the character is the most blunt way of advertising) for being actually concived in a decent way.

I guess some people also dislike that the people that wants certain new characters are bandwagonners that just are searching the most likely thing to appear in Smash.

How I lack attachment to most of the characters... I'm actually Okay with even the newer franchises appearing in Smash.

Despite most of my wanted characters being at least 10 years old (Micaiah4Smash BTW)

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Geno:

Chance: 10%
If this were Melee or Brawl, I would have rated him higher, but even by the time of Smash 4, his chances were pushing it. A whole generation of gamers have come up well after his one, and only, notable appearance, most of which don't even know he exists. While being obscure and left in the past doesn't hurt characters like Duck Hunt or Ice Climbers, we have to remember that they are the faces of their own series.
Geno, however, is not. He's a one-off character from a spin-off game owned by a third party company. Even when everything aligns and Square gets to make a Mario game, he gets overlooked and they even go so far as to include characters from outside the series over him. The Mario series gets the most characters, sure, but I'm willing to bet that those who want (Captain) Toad, Waluigi or even Daisy greatly outweigh the demand for Geno these days.
He's not impossible, but the only way he'll get in is if Sakurai throws a bone to the fans who wanted him in the past.
I'm not hating, it's just how I see things are going.

Want: 0%
Mario characters excite me so much less than any others these days. I'm gonna have to give a 0 to anyone from the series.


-----

Dillon
Chance: 10%
His series is growing, but I'm not sure how much people really want him.

Want: 50%
He's ok, but I can live without him.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Bandana Dee
51.83% Chance (Previously 56.64%)
62.02% Chance (Previously 71.11%)

A Decline on both fronts. While still seen as likely and wanted, these scores just don't seem as high. Guess with less spots a character like Dee has less charm.

Elma
45.13% Chance (Previously 42.60%)
47.43% Want (Previously 60.10%)

So...either Elma's fans did not turn out for today, or there is more pessimism towards her now. Could be the later since spots are kinda scarce.

Dixie Kong
64.73% Chance (Previously 57.51%)
65.25% Want (Previously 62.93%)

Noticeable increase due to echo fighter potential. Still seen as quite likely and wanted by the community.


Isaac
20.44% Chance (Previously 17.73%)
59.77% Want (Previously 58.60%)

A noticeable rise, but not by too much. Still seen as unlikely but a popular choice.

Paper Mario

27.02% Chance ( Previously 32.74%)
46.42% Want (Previously 44.52%)

A slight rise in want but a small decrease in chance. Guess slots are scares hurting him,

Celica

13.71% Chance (Previously 37.93%)
43.34% Want ( Previously 37.31%)

A noticeable rise in want but her chance scores wee gutted due to a combo of project plan and less spots.

Shovel Knight
9.59% Chance (Previously 22.88%)
36.41% Want (Previously 45.94% )

Wow. A decline for sure. The love for Nindies has dried up here where competition is fierce.

Shantae
7.31% Chance (Previously 14.71% )
30.89% Chance (Previously 43.94% )

See Shovel Knight.

I will get the remaining scores done tomorrow.

Geno and Dillon are up. After them we got Steve and Chibi Robo. Rate Geno and Dillon and predict Steve and Chibi Robo.

That Bandana Dee one is really surprising. I honestly think a Kirby character is even more likely after E3...poor guy :/

 

[Troykv]

BTW TCT~Phantom

When you will update the scores at the first page? Are you waiting to the final day of the rerates?

 

[ProfPeanut]

This seems to have flown under the 4 pages of Geno discourse we just had. Wow, I have not seen this much talk about a character until now.

Geno
A translator at Square Enix who other people vouched for basically disconfirmed the Imgur leak by saying that certain characters aren't in. Which is widely accepted as Geno & Sora. Besides I'm one of the few that preferred Mallow over him.

So anyway, source on this? This is the first time I've heard of such a thing.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I don’t think that many characters deserve spots over others when it comes to new vs old. I think interesting and unique characters should have a shot of getting in regardless. I think Geno is unique looking and could have a fun move set. Bandanna Dee is the spear us we desperately need in Smash (again Fire Emblem doesn’t seem to be giving us one any time soon anyway and that’s the only competition). I support Marx as a character cause he looks absolutely insane when he’s going all out, not because he’s relevant to Super Star.

Though I’m starting to see where the bigger issues with the community are coming from if the old vs new is that large of a rift in some places, or people supporting older characters are opposing new ones entirely.

The one thing is I don’t think one should take priority over the other. I don’t think newer characters should inheretly take priority to older less notable ones, and classic fan picks shouldn’t take priority over newer ones either. I’m a believer in interesting character potential should be the key and a balance of both is only good for Smash. Fan service picks and “relevant” picks don’t have to be mutually exclusive ideaologies when it comes to roster honestly.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Dillon

Chance: 15% (<-27%)
His situation hasn't really changed, personally. While a missing Assist Trophy can be called a clue, I'm disinclined to cite them as any real evidence until we see further confirmations/deconfirmations.

While he's still got the appearance and thematics to make a decent fighter, his series hasn't really moved forward since his debut. Given how many other B-list Nintendo characters there are, with longer and more critically-acclaimed entries than him, that continue to go unrepresented, I'm not too hopeful about his chances myself.

Want: 15% (<20%)
The design itself is okay, and his probable playstyle of combining claws with rollouts is, well, okay as well. I'd just rather that the actual gameplay of his games stood out more, because it'd be a lot easier then to think of it as a series worth representing. All that I recall the most from Dillon's Rolling Western is the endless grind of bashing Grocks in and rolling out across the stages over and over and over. I think we can choose better games than this to favour.


Nominations:
Ninten x5

 

[LokiTheFlameshied]

Henry Fleming
Want: 75%
Chance: 30%

His chances are low, but 1% is a bit too low.
Still, Codename S.T.E.A.M is a very recent recent IP, but it didn't do well. Which is a shame, because it actually has interesting gameplay. Think Fire Emblem with smaller maps and more emphasis on placement and management.(seeing as there are way more enemies than you. It'd be interesting to see the steam come into play. Do I think he'll get in? No. Is it far-fetched for him too, I wouldn't say that. Do I want him? Yeah.

 

[LokiTheFlameshied]

Dillon:
Want: 60%
He's alright. His new game looks pretty good. Plus having a Cowboy Armadillo sounds interesting enough to be added.
Chance: 30%
That said, I remember a lack of caring when his new game was shown off. Which is too bad. He lends himself well to Smash and I love seeing representation from franchises not in the game already, but he's not really cared about by Nintendo fans. He does have a chance, just not a big one. Plus...He is a Rolling character. We have that already.

Geno:
Want: 10%
Okay, I'm not gonna sugar-coat this, I do not care even a little bit about Geno. I did not like Super Mario RPG. It was a dull game to me and Geno was just another part of the tedium. His design is fine. He's a possessed puppet; which is cool I guess. But altogether, I just can't drudge up the ability to care about Geno. The points I gave him are just because I saw the brawl mod, beyond that, he's pretty low on my list.
Chance: 90%
In stark contrast, he has a huge chance to get in. Not only is he highly requested, but Sakurai has discussed interest in adding the character. He even had a Mii costume. He will more than likely get in. While I don't particularly see the appeal, I'm not blind to his popularity.

Nomination:
Demille x5

 

[CometX-ing]

I didn't mean to generalize, but it seems like a lot of Smash fans are extremely opposed to newer characters because they didn't grow up with them.
Said close-minded mentality is one of the many reasons why I plan on quitting Smash Speculation after Ultimate.

That's a general side affect of people just wanting who they care more about to be playable. Older people are going to want older characters who they themselves look back upon fondly, when you get older games are a lot less mystifying and characters who kids growing up today would fall in love with most likely won't do the same for you. That's not to say adults can't still grow to like certain modern day characters, but they won't ever be able to match a character from a game they spent hours playing and loving as a kid. I guess the best way to put it is that it's all just a matter of nostalgia that leads people to prioritize their childhood over what is in truth the childhood of the younger generation. Unfortunately that also leads to elitism for some people in which they look down on those who would request newer characters.

 

[Souldin]

For all of you who replied to my previous question regarding what new-to-SSB series you think is most likely to get a newcomer in SSBU; thank you very much. I appreciated reading your differing opinions, and whilst I still myself rate Dillon's Rolling Western series chances higher, I appreciate the well thought out insight you commented with. If you wish to discuss this topic further with me or in general, I posted the same question in the Newcomer Speculation thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/newcomer-speculation-discussion.453424/page-33#post-22166866

Splatoon sold nearly 5 million copies on a measly 13 million install base, Splatoon was a massive hit. Dillon's games barely made much of a splash on a much bigger install base. I don't really think he's comparable to the Inklings.

If another series is getting in I have a good feeling it's Rhythm Heaven.

Sales wise is certainly one differing factor; that I'll admit. The avenues I was comparing to with Splatoon though was how it was a new Nintendo IP of the last gen, and contrasting to Splatoon in a beneficial way to it, one that could be representative of the 3DS whereas Splatoon is representative of a new IP on the Wii U. Given the Switch is a hybrid system, I feel it would make sense for a handheld focused IP to get representation at the same time as a Console based IP such as Splatoon, though of course Dillon's Rolling Western does have competition in that regard.

As you yourself go on to mention; Rhythm Heaven, which is a primarily handheld focused series. Whilst I'm still betting on Dillon's Rolling Western, particularly of the newer ones, the fact that Rhythm Heaven is a multiple game series still alive and well in the last generation does give it a highly considerable chance. Thank you for your answer!

Rhythm Heaven, I think is likely, considering it was planned to get a playable rep in Smash 4, whoever that was originally supposed to be. Beyond that and Splatoon, though, I doubt we'll see any more first-party series get a character for the first time, at least not until DLC starts up, at which point the ARMS content will inevitably come flooding in.

Rhythm Heaven seems to be the popular one to consider; understandably so though. I don't put too much stock in the planning thing, as I don't remember it ever being confirmed outside of strong rumours, but I could see that happening.

Interesting that you think we will only get 2 new Nintendo series represented. I honestly expect a 3rd, maybe even a 4th if no new 3rd party series is added; I don't see this SSB going without a retro/older series newcomer (hoping for Lip myself, but Balloon Fighter and Excite Biker seem likely choices).

Yeah, ARMS seems a prime candidate for DLC; though maybe we will get a stage in the base content. Thank you for your answer!

Golden Sun is the next new series getting a character in Smash. As for Dillon basically, I do believe he would have a great shot if this Smash was selecting characters in a similar manner as the last game since he usually checks the common criteria we use but with a greater emphasis on popularity and Dillon still being relatively minor, I don't think he'll make it. I'd love to be wrong about him though.

Oooh; very confident reply. Why do you think Golden Sun is more likely? I've heard Isaac was a popular vote in the ballot, but there's no way of truly telling how well he did, and I feel that there might be some tough competition for him from handheld series which got new games in the last gen (I've always been curious about trying out Golden Sun though; if only I had more room on my Wii U).

You mention Dillon being less likely because of popularity, which I do admit his series and character aren't hugely well known, but it seems strange to judge the newcomers being popularity based when we so far have had only two newcomers (oh, 3 if you count the Echo, but they are a bit of a strange case). Inkling were pretty guaranteed to get in for multiple reasons, whilst it seems too soon to use Rildey's inclusion as a basis for how newcomers are being decided this time around. Thanks for the supportive words and for answering my question; it's very much appreciated.

Since Ultimate seems to be all about fanservice, it’ll probably be an older franchise with more popularity, like Golden Sun, Panel de Pon or Advance Wars. Maybe a retro or a WTF pick, but people seem iffy on whether we’ll get one of those this time around.

I'm unsure as to how this SSB is any more about Fanservice than before, after all we have only had 2-3 newcomers revealed so far, but if it were to get Lip playable then I would love to believe that to be the case. Interesting that you brought up Advance Wars; first person to do so, but it would lovely to see the series get a revival (along with Puzzle League... preferably starring the Panel De Pon cast).

Whilst I'm unsure if we will get a WTF pick, if we do happen to get one, my bets are on either Vince from Art Academy or a Style Savvy rep. Thank you for the answer; it's most appreciated.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Holy crap I did not think Geno would be as controversial as this especially now. Expect calcs tomorrow.

Dilon
2% Chance
50% Want

Simply put, he does not have the pop that makes me feel that he would be looked at as a character. His series is not particularly big. He is kind of just.. there. I know his AT is missing but he does not have the huge fanbase of say Ashley Isaac or even Skull Kid. Sorry to his fans, but I do feel indifferent on him. I mean if he is in ill take him his games are ok, but I am not clamoring for him.

Geno
45% Chance

Spots for the base game are scarse, but I feel in a gmae that looks like fanservice is the MO, Geno stands actually a good shot. The fact that no nwe third party was announced at E3 is weird for me, but I guess that it means that aside from a miracle there are few shots for a company not involved in Smash Bros right now to hop in on this train. Geno has that and a very vocal fanbase going for him. Sakurai also agknowledges that Geno is cool and popular. THat helps.

100% Want

I just think Geno has a cool element to him. The fact he is a possessed dall from space serving a higher authority is really cool for me. Hopefully we one day see him make a return ot the mario rpg series. I would love a Mario RPG rep, be it Paper Mario or him.

Noms Smash Run x 10

Today we got Steve and Chibi Robo. Tomorrow we got Banjo Kazooie and Andy. Predict the later, rate the former.

 

[Deleted member]

Steve want: 5%
I can see his merits and I would definitely understand why he's added, but I'd rather not have him. Simply put, I just don't want 12 year old kids raiding this forum, en masse.

Chibi-Robo want: 60%
Would actually be a pretty fun character to play as if SSF2 is anything to go by. He's nowhere near one of my top wants (I've played very little of the Photo Finder demo and bought Zip Lash, didn't like either), but I'd welcome him in open arms. Plus I do feel pretty bad for his series' current state.

Leon Kennedy x5
Tails x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Steve
Chance 4%

The one and only straw is vergeben but he said it's Morley minecraft is either stage or assist trophy related

Want 50% would be pretty cool

Chibi robo
Chance 2%
It would be 0 but the only reason it's 2% is being that chibi could become the "WTF character" I mean look at Wii fit trainer she was dead 0% before smash 4

Want 70%

I would love this

Nomination

Mach rider 5x

 

[Runic_SSB]

Steve

Chance: 0%
Every third-party franchise/company has some sort of connection with Nintendo. Sega and Nintendo's rivalry was legendary, Mega Man and Final Fantasy have many games released on Nintendo consoles, Smash Bros. wouldn't even exist without Street Fighter, Konami has a long and storied relationship with Nintendo, Namco has released over 100 games on Nintendo consoles and developed quite a few games for Nintendo properties (including, obviously, Smash 4), and even Bayonetta has some sort of exclusivity deal with Nintendo (though she didn't need it to get in because of the ballot). What is Steve's connection to Nintendo? His game got ported to the Wii U and Switch years after every other console already got it. That's it. Also, if Steve was going to be picked for Smash, it would've been in Smash 4 when the Wii U port was coming out. There's absolutely no reason to even entertain the thought. Steve Eggman from Sonic Boom has a better chance.

Want: 0%
I never liked Minecraft. Not because of its "cringy" fanbase (they're literally just children having fun, it's not like they're grown men in their 30's going out of their way to be douchebags ), but because 1. it's just not my thing and 2. voxels make me want to vomit. Plus I'd be reeeeeally pissed if the dude from Minecraft gets in over Sora or Travis.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%
On one hand, he's had a pretty good history and his last game wasn't too long ago. On the other hand, it was a huge flop and his series is most likely dead.

Want: 50%
I've never played a Chibi-Robo game, but he's so cute and he's been through a lot. Seriously, Nintendo? He is a good boy and he deserves better than to have his entire future ride on the sales of a really sub-par platformer spin-off. I hope Sakurai gives him the spotlight he deserves so Nintendo will think twice about retiring him.

Andy prediction: 7.5%

Banjo-Kazooie prediction: 12.5%

Nominations:
Raiden x10

 

[Klimax]

Steve
Chances: 0%
I guess we'll have a trophy, but there's no way we have this guy as newcomer.

Want: 0%
I don't hate Minecraft, i had some fun on this game back in the days with friends, but Steve doesn't feel like a star. I'm pretty sure that many people don't even know that his name's Steve. I'm sure many people refer to him as "the minecraft guy". + his design wouldn't fit in my opinion and there's better Microsoft characters in my opinion.


Chibi-Robo
Chances: 5%
I don't see it happening, this is sad because he could be fun, but i can't imagine it. He's not really popular anymore.

Want: 65%
He looks funny and i think he could be unique. I love WTF characters, so yeah, why not. I would like to see him.

 

[Souldin]

I am still unsure why so many are assuming that the newcomer selection is going to be more dependant on popularity and fan-service; SSB always tries to one-up it's fan-service with each game and I think it's bit too early to state that popularity is specifically how newcomers are being selected when only 3 have been revealed so far.

Steve (Minecraft series I assume, unless this is a different Steve I'm unaware of)
Chance: 10%

I think, despite what has been said, that a Microsoft 3rd party is very unlikely. To think that, in the ludicrously rare case that they would have a Microsoft character added, that they'd skip over a Rare character is near incomprehensible. That said, Minecraft is hugely popular and has been on Nintendo systems in more recent times despite it's Microsoft owned status; there is a younger audience that would probably be drawn in from his inclusion in smash. Perhaps my bias is affecting my rating, which is rather low, but I tend to rate all 3rd parties lowly.​

Want: 0%

I didn't think I could get a 0% want, but out of all the possible 3rd party inclusions, this suggestion seems to bother me the most. Perhaps it's because I dislike Minecraft and see no appeal in Steve, but it's not like I hate it. I mean... I don't like 3rd party inclusions to begin with (I'd be more accepting of them if they were guest fighters, but they appear to be sticking around after each game), but Steve getting in over many of the other potential 3rd party inclusions, and whilst Bomberman is just an Assist Trophy... something really irks me about that. I wouldn't say I'd be angry, just... overwhelmingly disappointed.​

Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo series)
Chance: 42%

Chibi-Robo doesn't look to have a future... but he did gain two games on the 3DS, has had multiple games in his series and an Amiibo. Whilst his games haven't sold spectacularly, I feel people are much more aware of him, a benefit of the Nintendo Directs as well as game appearances. This tiny fighter has plenty of games to draw inspiration for a move-set from and honestly, a smash appearance might be what he truly needs to get his games more attention (that and sticking to a consistence style of game).​

Want: 62%

I'm always a fan of new-to-SSB Nintendo series gaining playable representation and Chibi-Robo is no exception. SSB would be the perfect way to thrust him into the limelight, give a second... or fifth or so chance. I can see quite a bit of chaos having another teeny-tiny fighter join in alongside Olimar and Pichu, and I feel there is some real potential in his move-set; be it household apparatus from his debut game or the mechanics and attacks demonstrated in Zip-Lash. Heck, people seem to be wanting a whip fighter with Simon Belmont; why not Chibi-Robo instead!​

​

Edit: Ooops; almost forgot the nominations.
Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist
x1 Tingle (The Legend of Zelda)
x2 Kamek (Mario) ... who I'd say is incorrectly labelled as a Mario series character here, but that's worth discussing in the rating itself.
x2 Lip (Panel de Pon)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Chibi Robo
Chance: 10%
Yeah, not looking great. His series has been stated to be officially dead, which doesn’t bode well. His last games haven’t been acclaimed either. Hell, with all his popularity and relative importance he didn’t even get an AT!
Want: 100%
The little guy needs Smash and Smash needs him.

Oh boy, Steve
Chance: 5%
It technically exists, but for a game so focused on its own fandom, to try and appeal to a different fandom and likely piss off the existing one seems contrary to the mission statement.
Want: 0%

Nominations: Leon KennedyX5
Ayumi TachibanaX5

it seems strange to judge the newcomers being popularity based when we so far have had only two newcomers (oh, 3 if you count the Echo, but they are a bit of a strange case). Inkling were pretty guaranteed to get in for multiple reasons, whilst it seems too soon to use Rildey's inclusion as a basis for how newcomers are being decided this time around.

I'm unsure as to how this SSB is any more about Fanservice than before, after all we have only had 2-3 newcomers revealed so far

People seem to forget there’s more to the game than just newcomers. Every single veteran is back, and that’s been a huge selling point. The game is called Ultimate. The mechanics of the game were very much focused on during E3. Heck, they had to clarify that while most of the stages will be back, it won’t be all of them. Every single aspect of the game seems geared towards the idea of being a Smash game for Smash fans. Snake, Wolf and the Ice Climbers being back is as much fanservice as Ridley or Daisy.

 

[Opossum]

Steve
Chance: 50%, be it base game or DLC.
Most likely third party barring Simon. An icon who would provide a play style no one else could. Plus Nintendo and Microsoft are buddies now.

Want: 50%
No personal attachment, I like having iconic characters in though.


Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5%
Sakurai said characters should have a future...Chibi doesn't. Like, Nintendo pretty much came out and said as such.

Want: 50%
He's cute. That being said I'm mostly indifferent as there are others I'd want before him.

Nominating Reinhardt Trophy x10

 

[Impa4Smash]

Steve

Chances 60%
As more time goes on, the more I think Steve might actually make it into Smash. I always thought Banjo would be the Microsoft rep (if they got one), but maybe Microsoft wants Steve, and maybe Sakurai sees a good move set potential in him. Plus, he's very relevant right now.

Want 10%
I'm not super stoked about him getting in, but it would almost be worth it just to get a huge WTF character in the game. Plus his lack of emotion/expression would be hilarious, and I always like a good troll character.


Chibi-Robo

Chances 30%
Probably not too good, but man, he deserves it. His franchise isn't the biggest, but he did have a game semi-recently, and his gamecube game was a classic.

Want 80%
Not in my top 10, but I would welcome him with open arms. And definitely play as him a bit.

 

[Deleted member]

Steve
Chance: 15%
Want: abstain

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 20%
Want: abstain


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Banjo Kazooie prediction: 23.63%
Andy prediction: 9.13%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Steve

Chance: 30%

With Minecraft being the seond most succesfull game of all time and Sakurai having played the game, I can defintely see him atleast being considered.

A big thing holding him back is that compared to the Smash Bros cast he'd look very different in a not so good way. In Minecraft he has little animations. When he moves in Minecraft his limbs just kinda swing around like a pendulum and I also don't think he has a jumping animation, his body just kinda gets pulled upwards for a sec. In Smash he'd look janky and stiff, without the charm like
.

I recall Sakurai saying in order for a character to become a fighter he has to invision them ''dancing around in his head.'' I don't know if that could happen for Steve.

Oh yeah, and he's from a western company, tho that might actually be the minor issue in this case.

Want: 1%

Never played Minecraft and even if I did I still would have no interest in him. He has no personallity, thoughts of his own or even any facial animations. He is less of a ''character'' and more of a ''thing you controll.'' I'm also not a fan of how out of place he could look in Smash.

Remains unchanged.
Chibi Robo
Chance: 35%
Chibi Robo is one of the few mid-tier Nintendo franchises that doesn't have a character yet. Zip Lash was also released a few months before the project plan was finished. If Sakurai doesn't care about that game selling poorly and having mediocre reception you could argue the timing being in Chibi's favour.

Andy: 5.62%
Banjo&Kazooie: 19.16%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

I've been looking forward to this ever since missing the original day for Steve

Steve: 50%

The only reason this isn't MUCH higher is because Minecraft doesn't really need a character to be represented well in Smash. A stage, a creeper assist trophy, an Ender Dragon boss fight, maybe a few item blocks, it almost fits the series better! But Steve is still being severely underestimated as a contender for Super Smash Brothers Ultimate.

This is a character that ticks off every single one of Sakurai's credentials for a Smash Brothers fighter, AND for a third party character, and does the latter better than every single other potential candidate.

So let's go over them, shall we:

1: Third party characters can't be anyone, they have to carry gaming history with them.

Minecraft is the 2nd best selling video game of all time. Just to put that into a bit of perspective, that's more sales, as a SINGLE GAME, then the ENTIRETY of the Legend of Zelda franchise. Minecraft, and by extension Steve, has had more influence on the gaming community then most other characters in Smash Brothers put together. Everybody knows what Minecraft is, random people on the street know what Minecraft is, your grandmother has probably played Minecraft! Getting Minecraft onto a console is one of the biggest achievements for a company, as it's guaranteed to up the sales of the console for the sheer fact that it is Minecraft.

Representing Minecraft in Smash doesn't just make sense for Sakurai's desire to "celebrate gaming" Smash Brothers, its such huge deal that it's a fantastic business move. Showing kids that "Hey, your favorite video game is now in Smash Brothers! Isn't that cool?" would singlehandedly sell copies of Smash Brothers. The sheer marketability alone makes Minecraft in Smash an appealing prospect for Nintendo, one that they would be fools to pass up.

2: Both companies need to want the character in Smash

I've seen people claim that Nintendo wouldn't want Minecraft content in Smash Brothers because of Microsoft. Which is stupid. I'm sorry, but there is no other way of putting it. Now, putting the aside the fact that Minecraft has already appeared on SEVERAL of Nintendo's consoles, and is currently CROSS PLATFORM with Microsoft's consoles, meaning the entire argument was invalidated since BEFORE Smash Ultimate was even teased, WHY WOULD NINTENDO AND MICROSOFT NOT WANT THIS?! There is no scenario where this doesn't benefit both companies tremendously. You bring back Minecraft into the spotlight for the umpteenth time, and you cause the younger generation to flock to this new system where they can play the game they love on the go.

3. The character must have a clear moveset

Steve has so much to pull from. You could have a moveset based around self-improvement, zoning away opponent as you set down a crafting bench to make weapons, armor, and items. You could have a moveset based around building, changing up the landscape of the stage to screw over your opponents. You can throw in durability aspects to his weapons, have him throw TNT, set down spawners to summon mobs, brew randomized potions to cause all sorts of chaos, there is so much you can do with this character!

4. The character must display a distinct personality

Here is why this is 50%, and not 90%. While Steve is recognizeable, has oodles of potential to draw from, and comes from a game that Sakurai is known to like... he doesn't have a personality. He is a blank slate, a simple avatar to insert the player into the game. He barely has any animations, although that's easily fixed by implementing the ones they use in the Minecraft Story Mode games. I don't think this is a dealbreaker for Steve, as that problem didn't stop the Mii's from getting in (Admittedly to a lesser extent in their case), and maybe Sakurai just gives Steve some kind of contemplative, artistic personality to fit the theme of creation in Minecraft, who knows? But this is why I could see Minecraft appearing in other, non character related forms in favor of Steve as a playable character.

Want: 100%

It's funny, before Smash speculation this would have been so much lower. I'm not terribly fond of Minecraft, I always gravitated more towards Terraria for the sandbox experience, and there's not much about Steve's potential moveset that really inspires me. But seeing the visceral response to Minecraft in Smash, SOLELY for the fact that it would attract younger players to the game... just... really? Were none of you mocked for your interests as a child? For playing Pokemon, for watching anime, for reading comics, etc? Were you never shunned by older generations for simply LIKING something? I sure was, and it was one of the worst feelings in the world. That's what some of you are doing right now.

This is coming from somebody who despises kids. They're obnoxious, overdramatic smelly creatures that I rarely have the patience to deal with. But that doesn't mean their interests don't matter. Kids are going to play Smash Brothers no matter what happens, they are going to participate on these forums no matter what happens, they're going to drive you crazy NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS. Why not give them something to be happy about?

And at the very least, it'll be fun to stomp them into the pavement online

 

[Zema]

Steve
Chance: 1%
I wish this chance were lower. I really do. Unfortunately, I'm afraid there is a chance for Steve to make it into Smash Bros. However, I think Smash is fairly safe from Steve because of Sakurai's bias against western characters. Not only that, but Steve is a third party character, has very poor moveset potential and has a truly clashing art-style.

Want: 0%
Part of me wants him in because of the absolute rage meltdown I would see throughout the internet. So in a sense, I want him in only ironically. Otherwise, no. Keep Steve far, far away from Smash. He's a bad character. Maybe as an assist trophy. Maybe. Hopefully not.

 

[CometX-ing]

Steve & Chibi Robo
Chances: 30% & Abstain
Steve only gets this high because of the how popular his game is. But that is really it, and popularity isn't the sole factor in getting into Smash Brothers.

Being that he is owned by Microsoft he has other characters to worry about. For one you have Banjo and Kazooie who are far and away the most requested Microsoft owned characters for Smash. And given that people have been vocal enough about them to even get Xbox's CEO to notice it's not like they don't know a bunch of people want them.

And secondly he has, and I know that this will probably sound crazy to most, but he also has Master Chief to compete with. Notice how the first characters that each third party company included were more or less the face of their company. Sega :Sonic, Capcom: Mega Man, Namco: Pac-man, Square: Cloud, Konami: Snake (though I'm not to sure on this one).

If MS get in on this, then I say it's far more likely they will include the indisputable mascot of Xbox over Steve. Halo was once a massively popular series, and is one of the most important series in gaming. The original trilogy received massive praise and has had an influence on multiplayer gaming. And it's not like you could say that he wouldn't fit because this is literally the exact same game in which we have Solid Snake and Bayonetta. He doesn't even have to use his own regular guns (even though Halo guns look about as realistic as Bayonetta's guns), Halo has an assortment of weapons to choose from on the less realistic side like Energy Swords, Needlers and Plasma Grenades. Steve could get in as a secondary character similar to Ryu and arguably Bayonetta, but still, Banjo is more likely to fill that role if not Master Chief himself.

If anything from Minecraft gets in I expect it to be either a stage, trophy, assist trophy or Mii Costume (should they return). The latter three are especially likely given we know a series doesn't even have to have a playable character to get any of those. Honestly, Steve or a Creeper fit the role of assist trophy pretty well.

I have nothing to say on Chibi Robo because I don't know a thing about him.

Want: 0% and Abstain
Yeah, I don't even hate Minecraft, I played it a bunch when I was in high School but in terms of Microsoft representatives alone I just don't want Steve in. Especially not when there are Microsoft series that I like far more, characters who could honesty do more interesting stuff than Steve.

Once again I have nothing to say about Chibi Robo.
Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Steve

Chance - 40%

Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Minecraft is a huge series with a ton of worldwide appeal, clocking in at a whopping total of 144 million sales. He's had multiple games released on Nintendo platforms, receives a ton of attention in Japan, which is something nearly every western 3rd party character can't claim, and has even received attention from Sakurai himself, to the point where he actually bought the game twice, once on the Nintendo Switch, and another time on an unspecified console, due to how interesting he found the game to be:
The character of Steve himself is also no slouch. He's constantly featured across merchandising for the franchise, such as plush dolls, figurines, action figures, LEGO, you name it. Plus in Japan, he seems to be a relatively popular character request for a newcomer this time around, which once again, is something nearly unheard of for western 3rd parties.

Really, I'd say the only things holding him back is how he's a Microsoft owned character and how he isn't as iconic as the game itself or something like a Creeper. The first doesn't seem to be much of a problem considering both Microsoft's statements on Smash Bros., and the fact that the Wii U, Nintendo 3DS, and Switch versions of Minecraft exist in the first place, but you never know. The second could very well be a potential dealbreaker, but I'm not Sakurai. Steve is still very prominently featured across merchandising, but alas.

He's been a prominent and successful figure on Nintendo consoles, especially within Japan, is an extremely iconic character across the globe, and has received a good amount of attention from Sakurai himself. People are sleeping on him hardcore, simply because they don't want him in Smash.

Alongside all of that, there's of course the recent collaboration with Microsoft themselves, showing that they're more than capable of collaborating when it comes to Minecraft.

Another factor, is of course, my score for Steve remains so high simply because I'd be disappointed as hell with Steve, and I have a history of being disappointed with Smash newcomers.

Want - 0%

For the love of all that is holy in this world, just put in Banjo instead.

Chibi-Robo

Chance - 5%

He had a game come out around the time as planning, and he's always been somewhat popular in the Smash community, but his franchise is now considered dead, after Zip-Lash flopped.

Want - 20%

He's cute, but I'd rather have other characters.

 

[Troykv]

Chibi Robo:

Chibi Robo

Chance: 20%

I'm not even sure what to think about him because he's franchise isn't in a good position... but... He has the strange luck of being one of these characters that got games in the barren 2014-2016 age where Smash Switch will take inspiration... So yeah, not exactly likely, but has the timing luck in his side this time... Also, Chibi Robo look like the kind of character that Sakurai would love to do a moveset.

Want: 50%

I'm pretty neutral with thim.

Chibi Robo is still in this weird limbo of being in a good position timing wise but lacking... prowess for Nintendo.

Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

I'll still abstain with Steve BTW.

______________________________

Predictions:

Banjo Kazooie: 17.7%
Andy: 17.4%

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another day, another batch of rerates...

Olimar-Sized Robot

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Another first party character who is known only to these boards and the three other people who've played the game. There is nothing unique about him other than the fact that he's small (wait, isn't size a reason to deconfirm a character, or is that only when they're too big?) and he can use a cord as a whip...when Sm4sh got rid of all of the tether-only recoveries, and with a bunch of whip users who, while third party, are much more well known outside of this community (Ivy, Simon Belmont). So in essence, he's really got nothing special. His series is also on the ropes with few caring much, and we've also got characters from dead series as well, and look how well Lucas got a Mother revival going. During Sm4sh speculation, he looked like in good shape, but I think he depends a lot on the ballot now, and as unknown as he is to the general public...

We've already got one robot character in the game, and from the time it was confirmed I've been rolling my eyes. There is nothing that makes me even somewhat warm up to the character since it literally isn't a character, it's a piece of hardware - all of ROB's characterization came from the story mode. At least the chibi guy has some personality it could build from a few games outside of Smash, but still...

In essence, there are so many characters out there I'd rather have than this little thing. There are so many characters better representative of Nintendo than this thing.

Prediction for Shovel Knight: 24.7%
Nom: anything from Skyrim x5

...yeah, I think I was a bit generous last time. His series is dead. D.E.A.D. The only thing he has going for him is the fanbase, and that's not as big as a lot of people want to believe. I can't dismiss him fully, but we don't need more robots in Smash.

New Chance: 10%

Blockhead

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

If there's any game that can be described as a phenomenon, it's this one.

Minecraft may have started out indie, but it's really one of the biggest games nowadays, and has filled YouTube with countless hours of Let's Play videos from younger kids trying to get rich and famous. Minecraft merchandise can be found in every toy store, and everyone and their dog knows about the game in general. It'd be tough to find a game that is more well-known than this nowadays.

But Steve?

The player character of Minecraft is little more than an avatar, and is also fully customizable. He's best known for existing and walking around, and using his pickaxe to dig stuff up. And that's about it. Most of the popularity of Minecraft is based on what can be done in game, from building to destroying, not necessarily on the playable character.

Moveset potential may exist - Sakurai is definitely creative enough, and he does use a pickaxe and other weapons in game - but Steve's character is specifically designed as a blank slate and as such he has little personality to go off of. He'd basically be another Villager - a generic avatar who can pull anything out of hammerspace, but be nothing else.

Minecraft also has a decent anti faction to have popped up simply because the generic Minecraft player tends young and self-important. It definitely suffers from cries of "that's for babies" from the more edgy gamers who dislike the game for not being Call of Duty.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Steve as a playable character. I dislike the artstyle of Minecraft, and Villager never interested me as a blank slate that much, which can also be ascribed to Steve. However, that's not to say I don't think Minecraft shouldn't be repped at all - If Smash wants to be a celebration of groundbreaking third parties in addition to Nintendo, Minecraft no doubt has a place. I'd just prefer it not to be a playable character.

Considering that Minecraft is based around exploration and building, a Minecraft stage could be incredibly cool. I could also see using Creepers as enemies on that stage or in a new SmashRun mode. Not every bit of representation needs to be with a playable character.

Prediction for Excitebiker: 7.4%
Prediction for more Xenos: 24.6%
Nom: Transformations x5

And this one I underrated.

I hate the artstyle with a passion, but that's not to say it's not a phenomenon. Still, I'd prefer not to have to see a walking pixel in Smash.

There are loads of ways Minecraft could make int into Smash, now that Bomberman has shown that a third party can get a role as an NPC. Considering Minecraft's entire raison d'etre is sandbox/building, it would make a perfect stage. Also, if we've got Smash Run returning, those Creepers (which are arguably more well known than Steve) would be great enemies or even assists.

But I really don't need block boy in Smash.

New Chance: 40%

However, both wants stay at 0%. Meh.

Nom: Tails x10