Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[skylanders fan]

Ayumi
chance
well she would have a unique moveset but with a limited release range of her game and not as big as chacter like say Takumari I think she will set this one out
10%

want
i could see a fun moveset just wish she had more than that to bakc her up
50%

nominating
labo man x10

 

[AlphaSSB]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 1% - Once considered for Melee, but rejected due to various reasons. And to our knowledge, may have not been considered a second time. Highly doubt we'll ever see her in Smash, but there's always a chance.

Want: 0% - No interest.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x10

 

[Opossum]

Double Zeroes for Ayumi. She has everything wrong that Takamaru had that prevented him from being playable, and he eventually got an international release and had notable fan demand...she has neither of those. Add in being a generic anime schoolgirl (bleh) and I don't want her at all.

Reinhardt trophy x10

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Ayumi

Chance: 1%
Sakurai's statement about Takamaru and obscure Japan-only characters isn't exclusive to just him. I really don't see him bring in anyone that never made it out of Japan, especially those from years long ago.

Want: 0%
She just doesn't interest me and I really can't see her doing anything that would translate to Smash Bros.

 

[RileyXY1]

Ayumi
Chance: 0%
Obscure, Japan only character

Want: 0%
Isn't really interesting

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 1%
I was gonna rate it 0%, but since she's a first party character, I'd give her a tiny 1%. Like everyone said, she's too obscure to be considered in Smash, even if Sakurai did say that she was considered back in Melee.

Want: 0%
Not familiar with the series overall and I really don't want her in Smash at all. I just don't see the potential for her to be a fighter.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x10

 

[NeonBurrito]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance - 0%

She was considered for Melee. That's it.

If Takamaru couldn't get in due to being Japanese only, and then couldn't get in again, despite a western release, a game in Nintendo Land, and a spike in popularity, I don't really know how a Japanese only character with none of that can get in.

Want - 10%

I've always wanted a generic schoolgirl in Smash, not even kidding. However, with limited newcomer space, I'd really prefer to see a lot of people over her, including retros.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10

 

[Idon]

Ayumi
Chance: 5%
Low. Has no modern relevance, a niche fanbase, Japan only, very little to draw from. Her only claim to fame is in a Melee trophy
Want: 0%
Don't care for her nor her games. Even in investigative detective games, ace attorney is king

SMT rep x10

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ayumi

Chance: 0.01%.
Want: ABSTAINED

Yeah not happening. If Takemaru couldn't make it in due to his obscurity, neither can her who is in a worse position.

Those two who? Prediction: 0.77%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x10

 

[CometX-ing]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chances: 15%
Honestly, she has very little if any chance of getting in, she was considered for Melee, but that was a long time ago. I also think people put too much stock in characters that Sakurai considered in the past, minds change and I would say that is likley the case with Ayumi as well. She hasn't been in a game in years, so she lacks relevance, plus if Takamaru got shafted for being a relative unknown outside of Japan then the same is very likely to happen to her.

Want: 50%
I don't have any attachment to the series, but as a purely wtf character I wouldn't mind her. I like seeing unconventinal characters in Smash like Wii Fit Trainer, and considering that she doesn't really have any magical powers (from what I know) it would be interesting to see how Sakurai would make her work.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[Kotor]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

"Who the **** are you?"

Yeah no. People are bringing up Melee because she was considered. Good for her, but you what? That was 18 years ago. It might've made sense to consider her then because she apparently had a new game that was released in 1997. But that was it for her. No new games released since that consideration from Melee. She simply fell into obscurity.

Nominations
Rowlet x10

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 1%

Well it is true that she's in the same boat as Sukapon sadly. Sakurai will probbaly not hav retros this time or ever think or revisiting her. They are focusing on fanservice and popularity for Ultimate this time.

Want: 100%

Trust me, the second game is a masterpiece and one of the best I've played in a long time. Shame that the other two never got translations, or the whole series wasn't localized for that matter.

School girl? Tastes are subjective and may I remind you we had the likes of Phoenix Wright in Ultimate Marvekl vs Cacpom 3? Picture her playing the same way. I'm all for some wacky pics or just giving Famicom Detective Club the Respect it deserves.

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I was hoping not to do this. But you all left me no choice, but to start doing these tedious defense posts again. I bet some of you are regretting this already.

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 4%

I am in the camp that expects her as an Asssist Triphy at this rate. Sadly Ultimate had to go the fan service route this time and not strict with established Smash tradition. But oh well.

She would have a better chance when Nintendo revives their damn franchises.

Want: 100%

I also enjoyed FDC and can say it’s one of the best mystery games I’ve ever played. Had me at the edge of my seat more than any Ace Attorney game ever could (Sorry for not having good taste I guess and not being a fanboy). Ayumi herself is a great character and I feel for her the whole time. Even when she couldn’t avenge what happened to Yoko. This is what happens when people expand their horizons and give an underrated game a try.

Her design is the least of her problems, her being a schoolgirl alone helps her stand out. She’s no different from the Villager and Wii Fit Trainer honestly. So I don’t get what’s with the criticism of a harmless design. This reminds me of the Wii Fit Trainer hate of the past. The moveset is not an issue other. I can see her being a “collect and upgrade” character like the abfirmentioned Phoenix Wright. I don’t see why Ace Attorney or Professor Layton fans think she’s a pot risk threat to them, all three could make it and play differently than each other. It’s alright to have an opinion, but what we all need to be is open minded too.


Nomination: Incineroar x5

 

[Misery Brick]

Ayumi Tachbana
Chance: 15%
Ayumi is an interesting case as she has been considered for Smash largely before, and would definitely have potential for a unique and unconventional moveset that Sakurai has shown in giving priority to. (Like in the case with Robin compared with Chrom.) However, she does face the fact that Sakurai is against bringing in characters that are Japanese exclusive characters, such as Takamaru, given they don't have international appeal.
There is, however, some instances where this didn't apply as such with Fire Emblem's localized release on the GBA and with Marth and Roy's inclusion years before the West's introduction to them. Promotion or not, it still didn't coincide with the West as we never officially received The Binding Blade. Not even to mention Lucas with Mother 3.
Anyway, Famicom Detective Club is considered a classic in Japan, Sakurai's own interest in her/the series and his recent mention of her, and would bring a completely new genre to Smash with horror/detective games, so I do think she definitely has a leg up over other retro characters. But her lack of popularity and international familiarity is what's keeping her at bay.

Want: 95%
I honestly want her to be included in this game as the "Everyone is Here!" mentality is very prevalent, and Sakurai is very much treating this as the ultimate iteration, so I feel it's fitting that she'd get in as a retro rep. Ayumi could also bring in elements of her own game which would allow for a very interesting moveset that makes her stand out from the rest of the cast alongside a different tone like Marth and Roy did back in Melee.
Also the possibility of seeing a Japanese school girl beat down someone like Ridley or any other brutal characters would be an amazing sight to see.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

In terms of possible retro choices, I cannot see Ayumi being the most popular retro ballot choice in both the West and Japan for me to see her seriously considered. If any retro was seriously popular at the time of the ballot, it would be Lip. I only noticed the rise of Ayumi's support after Smash Switch was announced, not hearing anything of Ayumi's support prior to the rise. I do not see her being chosen as the next retro.

------

x10 Hanafuda character

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance: 0% - Being briefly considered nearly two decades ago isn’t that noteworthy. Ayumi hasn’t been seen in years and with Takamaru being an AT, it’s hard to imangine any Japan exclusive characters make it in.
Want: 0%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[Starbound]

Double zero.

If Takamaru can't make it in as the Japan-only retro, there's no way this even more obscure character has any chance. I don't really think we'll be getting a retro character either.

Nomz: x10 Nihilego

 

[Sid-cada]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance - 0% - Takamaru had more going for him, but was exuded due to not being reconizable among the world audiance. She has less and the same problem. Why?

Want - 0% - If I had to chose a character from a visual novel Nintendo made, I want Shin Onigashima. Donbe and Hikari would be far more interesting compared to her.


Predicitons

Parabo & Satebo - 0.34% - I don't see this happening.


Nominations

Nihilego X10

 

[DivineWrath45]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 0%
If Takamaru was deconfirmed, then there's no way that this character would even make it at all. She's from a really obscure game and wasn't released outside Japan so that lowers her chances even more.

Want: 0%
She's great and all, but there are other characters that need to be on the priority list. Plus, if we're really going to have a visual novel character, I would rather have Phoenix Wright or Saber (which is my nominee) to represent the genre.

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x10

 

[Gerrothorax]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 0%
Obscure Japanese only character who hasn't had a game in over two decades. She's not happening.

Want: 100%
That being said I'd love her inclusion. She'd be such a strange and interesting fighter in the same vain as R.O.B. or Wii Fit Trainer. Plus, it would be neat to have a schoolgirl fight characters like Ridley and Ganondorf.

Nominations:
Brinstar Depths x10

 

[Erureido]

Double abstaining for today. Not familiar with the character enough to give a rating.

------

Predictions

Parabo and Satebo (Satellawalker): 0.15%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10

 

[perfectchaos83]

Chance: 10%

She's a Japan fan Favorite, but that's about it. She was considered for Melee and appeared in Mario Maker. Overall, I don't see it happening in a logical sense, so her best shot is simply to be a shocking addition because no one expects her. IMO, that's her best and really only shot and one I think warrants consideration.

Want: 50%

I'm very curious to see how a potential moveset for her works and I'd very much want some sort of VN/Mystery game representation.

 

[『SwingingStar』]

Ayumi Tachibana​

Chance: 15%
She was considered once, which already puts her ahead of quite a few. She's also got a Mario Maker skin, which must count for something, I guess? Beyond that, her series was produced by Gunpei Yokoi, so that ship has kind of sailed. There's the virtual console, I guess, so her game is available to her intended audience. As far as I know, Ayumi can do nothing in a fight, so she would require a Fox or Falcon level original moveset, which makes her a bit less likely.

Want: 75%

All of ya'll going "who?" like it's a bad thing are a bit too close minded, people bothered to translate her game, looking things up is trivial, in this age of information. More importantly, nobodies and weirdos are the best part of fighting games!

She's pretty anime, that's true, but she's not a fantasy character, so that makes her different. It's not like contemporary characters are over-represented in smash, anyways. Snake, Ness, and Lucas are the closest to modern day people in the game, a straight up 90's schoolgirl would be so out there, it'd be great! We already lost the chance to see her Wavedashing with the Space Animals back in 2001, that's a tragedy that should not repeat itself.

As an aside, is it even a good idea to take an slot-oriented mindset into account when rating these?

Nominations:

• Terry Bogard x5
• Ray x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance 0%
In a Smash game so heavily focused on pleasing fans and delivering the iconic characters people want, I see little room for such an unknown character

Want 0%
While the game seems cool and I'd be interested in experiencing it to get to know the character, I still have no interest in seeing her in this game. I really would rather Smash Ultimate focus on significant icons of gaming, and in that sense I could see the likes of Professor Layton or even Ace Attorney himself being more reasonable additions with similar gimmicks in their movesets.

Nominations
Viridi x10

 

[Quetzal77]

Ayumi
Chance: 0%
Too obscure and not in a retro way. Not really exciting.

Want: 0%
I think I remember a trophy of her in Melee. No other knowledge of her.

Nominations: Medusa x 5

 

[DaUsername]

Sakurai's Waifu
Chance: 1%
She probably won't be in Ultimate for the same reasons she wasn't in Melee. Anything is possible, though.
Want: N/A

Parabo and/or Satebo prediction: 0.1%
Noms: All-star versus x10

 

[Souldin]

Ayumi Tachibana? As in from Famicon Detective Club? Gosh, finally someone worth talking about; it's been an onslaught of 3rd parties on here recently. I only wish I had more time to do some research for the character, but heck, here goes.

Ayumi Tachibana (Detective Club series)
Chances: 41%

Now you might be thinking that for a rather obscure character, that 41% is an awfully high chance rating but I do have my reasons. Despite not being the main character of the first two games, she was the main heroine and would later go on to lead the 3rd game in the Detective Club series, as well as being seen as the face of the series due to the protagonist of the first two games being nameless. The Detective Club series is Japan-only, which is a hindrance to it, but it also serves as unique representation of two Japan-exclusive Nintendo systems; the Famicom Disk System and the BS Satelliview. She comes from a genre of game unrepresented in SSB, wherein a move-set can be derived from based on it (I would be more specific, but again, lack of time to research... though I shall try to edit this in later if I can), and was supposedly considered for Super Smash Bros back in the days of Melee. It's also not much, but she also does have a trophy in Melee.​

Want: 49%

I have other characters I'd prefer in the same veins as Ayumi, such as Ashley from Another Code or Hikari & Donbe from Shin Onigashima, however I am always a fan of new Nintendo series being represented through playable roles. I am also a fan of more styles and genres of Nintendo games being represented as well as more obscure series and characters getting the spotlight; their always so exciting to me.​

​

Again, whilst I haven't had the chance to research the specifics, the detective theme and genre of game feels like it'd be open to some nice move-set possibilities. If I've enough time before the end of the day, I may do a little research and edit in a few ideas.​

Nominations: x3 Fatal Frame Protagonist
x2 Kamek (Mario)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ayumi

10% Chance

Simply put the retro spot is up for grabs and being considered in the past is a boon. Granted, her lack of us relevancy is a big hurdle. However, I could still see her. However, Mach rider, Excitebiker, and Lip are more likely imo.

75% Want

Would rather have Mach, Excite, or Lip. While her moveset might be fun, she does not have a bike. I want my retro bike girl or guy to wreck people.

Nominating Ninten x 10

Day over, rate Parabo and Satebo and predict fe heroes summoner.

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x10

 

[CometX-ing]

Literally and Who

Chances: Abstain
I have 0 idea who these are.

Want: Abstain
See the above

Nominations:
Primarina x10

 

[Sari]

Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 1%
Very obscure and as a result can't really qualify as a retro character like Duck Hunt or R.O.B. (both of which are incredibly well-known to the general public).

Want: Abstain
Never heard of them until today.

FE Heroes summoner prediction: 1.36%

Nominations: Terry Bogard x10

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Parabo and Satebo

Double abstain. I feel like even Goku has a better chance then this duo.

Prediction:
Fe summoner- 25%
Nominations:
Zero x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yikes, these poor souls are about to get owned.

I’m going to abstain from chance, but I’m hovering between a 0%, a ‘technically anything is possible’ 1%, and a pity 2%.

Want: 50%
I would love Satellaview to be represented in some way, but to be honest I hadn’t considered these two before today. Should probably pop-up in their thread, see what possible movesets people have made. Wait, do they even have a thread? TCT~Phantom usually bumps threads on their day, and I’m not seeing it, so I assume it doesn’t exist.

Abstaining from predicting the Fire Emblem Summoner, but this’ll be an interesting day.

Nominations: NintenX5
Ryu HayabusaX5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Abstain. I literally don't know who these are.

Style Savvy character x10

 

[DaUsername]

Litera-

Literally and Who

Darn.
Chance: 0%
They have nothing going for them. They're almost completely unknown outside of Japan, haven't made any appearances anywhere in nearly two decades, and the amount of people that actually want them in Smash can be counted on my hand.
Even Diskun has a better chance.
Want: 0%
I'd rather have actual characters.

FE prediction: 12%, for some reason.
Noms: All-star versus x9, Diskun x1

 

[VexTheHex]

Parabo and Satebo
Chance - 0%
Maybe if Sakurai really wants to throw in a curve ball. But nah, they're obscure and don't really even look like Smash material. Hadn't head of them and searching them in Google brought me to their support page... that's not a good sign for them.
Want - 0%
Don't know them and don't really care to. Their designs feel very childish and lackluster.

Nominations 10x Incineroar

 

[Deleted member]

Parabo and Satebo
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

​

Noms:
Female announcer x10

FE Heroes summoner prediction: 2.03%

 

[NintenRob]

My precious duo

Chance 3%
The idea behingthem is that they'd be the new retro. So far we have Game & Watch, Light Gun and R.O.B.. The Satellaview was Nintendo's first online experience I believe. Also for the first time in ever as far as I know, they acknowledged the service in Mario Odyssey with Mario getting a costume based on a suit he wore in a commercial for it. So it's not completely forgotten. However they are extremely obscure. I'm starting to think if we get one, it'll be Diskun

Want 90%
This is just a choice that reeks of history and creativity. I just hope they get something, show everyone the forgotten piece of history

Nominate Daroach x10

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Can we get some recognizable characters in here?

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I feel like we're not going to get characters that are super obscure. The last one even got a trophy in Melee, the best these two have...is a Mario Odyssey costume that wasn't them, it was Mario from a commercial?

Ancient, obscure, Japan-exclusive...need I go on.



And as for ZOMG MY RETRO...

I'm not banking on a retro this round. Smash Ultimate has barely announced anything new, yet just everyone returning shattered every expectation we'd had. I won't even take a new Pokémon as guaranteed anymore.

Besides, "Sakurai has never not added a retro" is as fanrule-y as "Ridley is too big to be playable!" "We can't get Ryu because Capcom already has a rep!" "Snake will never be back because Konami imploded!" "Daisy wouldn't make sense as a Peach clone!"

I don't know if there are too many viable retros anymore - many concepts could easily work as stages (Excitebike track, etc), or as a combination of another character (DHD referenced all of the zapper games, not just Duck Hunt). Most of the "we should have XYZ retro in Smash" is a way for people to say "I want a revival of series XYZ since that's what happened with Kid Icarus!" And based on the graph posted...

...it's actually the newer characters that are underrepresented.

I think we're coming at things all working in the first place: Yes Marth/Roy were put into Melee despite being unknown in the west. Yes the ICs really didn't have much going for them at the time they were chosen over the other retros.

But things may have changed in the past 17 years. We've seen our fanrules get dashed over and over recently, so why are we clinging to this? What is our evidence that Sakurai's rules haven't also changed? Maybe "they're not well known worldwide" wasn't an issue seventeen years ago, but that's exactly why Takamaru was out four years ago.

We can't even use actions in Melee to support anything now.

The only things we know for fact about this game is that it has a huge veteran roster, so there's going to be a lot more competition for a slot than before. How much is Sakurai willing to go with "I have to make a moveset from scratch since I don't have much to work with for a character most players won't recognize" versus "Here's a character with a declared fanbase and plenty to work with."

Nom: FoD x10

 

[BlueMagician]

Parabou and Satebou

Chance: 0%
As Nintendo hasn't even put Satellaview excusives on the Virtual Console, I don't have much confidence for the mascots. Actually, when Nintendo does mention the Satellaview these days, the mascots aren't really mentioned. Mario Odyssey threw the Satellaview a bone, so at least there's a recent reference. People remember the Satellaview, though... but not a lot of people had it due to various circumstances. The mascots are obscure even to the Japanese, because those who did have it mainly remember Satellaview for the other stuff - events, radio, free games, the RPG menu...


Want: 0%
Satellaview is cool and all, but the mascots barely do anything. They're mainly just there to send and receive data, be menu icons and stuff. I want Nintendo to give us Satellaview's legacy, make it available to us, but I'm not so interested in the two mascots. And I'd be happy to see Satellaview representation in Smash, too, I just don't need a fighter.

Nominations:
Viridi x 10

Prediction
FE Heroes Summoner: 1.5%