Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

Erureido

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Impa

Chance: 20%

Her main advantage compared to most of the requested Zelda newcomers is that she is a reoccurring character throughout her series, and she has decent popularity to back her up. At the same time, her reoccurring nature also poses her main issue. Impa has had various designs and age differences throughout the years. While there have been cases where she was depicted as a young, capable warrior (Ocarina of Time, Skyward Sword, Hyrule Warriors), other games depict her as an old lady.

Want: 60%

Admittedly, my interest in her as a Smash fighter declined in the past year in favor of other Zelda characters, but I still think she'd be a cool addition, especially with the incorporate elements from her Hyrule Warriors moveset.

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Predictions

Reused art: 7.12%

No comment.

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Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 

Icedragonadam

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Impa

Chance: 25%

Want: 75%(if it's her HW version)

She's the only recurring legacy character not in Smash so she has a decent shot, however unlike the main trio she does end up not being that important. So it's hard to say. I'll be fine with her, if it's her HW version.

Reuse Art Prediction: 19.77%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 
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Impa

Chance: 20%
Recurring character in the Zelda franchise with decent support and a prominent role in HW, which has been pumping out new content and console releases since... 2014? That's a really long time now that I think about it. But, she faces stiff competition from the rest of the Zelda field, most notably Skull Kid and Midna imo. Sakurai also might feel that he doesn't need more Zelda characters, or that he's fine with just revamping/redesigning Link and Zelda to be more in line with BOTW. Another problem is that she can be old in some of her incarnations, most notably in BOTW, which we know is getting content in Smash 5. She's also not a member of the main trio, but I don't think that really matters.

Want: 60%
Think she'd be cool as an agile character who does lots of flips and stuff with a naginata and giant sword, assuming she's based off of HW.

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

Reusing Smash 4 Art prediction: 23.2%
 

Diddy Kong

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Chance: 60%

She's reoccuring, Link's first ally in Hyrule Warriors, Hyrule Warriors getting massive promotion ever since the beginning and will be on 3 systems, she has decent popularity, and Zelda hasn't had a newcomer since forever. She is held back only by her lack of relevant workable fighter potential due to her role in Breath of the Wild. She certainly deserves a notion, and I think it's likely they'll add her in one way or another, be it a Hyrule Warriors-inspired Impa, a semi-clone of Sheik, or a late clone addition of Sheik. A reveal of Skyward Sword HD is also quite possible, or a new title where she's a prominent ally of Link / Zelda yet again.

Impa has got stuff going for her. She shouldn't be neglected.

Want: 100%

Basically started the whole Impa 4 Smash movement, of course I want her badly.
 
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Impa

Chance: 55% - In terms of new Zelda reps, it's either her or nobody. Unlike all the other options people have presented, who will all be dead and dusted come next Smash, Impa is an evergreen candidate. She's been around since the first game on the NES, and you can bet your bottom dollar she'll stick around for the series' forseeable future. No useless dead Champions or mask-wearing midgets can claim that. She's got a boatload of moveset potential across all her appearances, recency and relevancy on lockdown, and an ever-increasing support base to bolster her popularity. Hyrule Warriors alone cemented her status as the most important character outside of the Triforce Three, and I don't see that slowing down anytime soon.

She's got a very variable design, but amongst those designs are plenty of workable ones However, BOTW is definitely going to influence the majority of this game's Zelda content, and it's unfortunately one of the many appearances of Grandma Impa, potentially her least workable incarnation thus far. However, in-game the old crone mentions being a "fierce warrior" herself when she was younger, so I'd bet quite a few dollars that there's concept art of a young Impa kicking around for BOTW. If Sheik could pull off the reused concept art shtick, Impa could very well do so herself. It's unfortunate they went with Grandma for BOTW though. As I mentioned yesterday, if we'd seen so much as a cutscene of Young Impa in BOTW, she'd be much much more likely. For now she's still the most likely candidate, but it's nowhere near a lock.

Want: 100% - Impa's one of my top 5 most wanted. I loved her appearance in SS as the mystical badass monk, and she's been a favorite of mine ever since. She's easily the most deserving Zelda rep not added yet, and she deserves more recognition for the long and storied role she's played in the franchise since the very beginning.

Predictions

Reused Art: 12.22% - This is a weird one, but will definitely be tied to whether or not people think this game is a port or not.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5
 

Diddy Kong

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I just wanna adress one thing.. People saying here Impa lost the boat by not getting into Smash in Smash 4, but fail to neglect that Dixie Kong and Wolf are in similar situations. And yet, they are often highly requested and suspected to be in / return.

Star Fox Zero should've logically made Wolf secure his spot on the roster, or at least DLC, but he didn't make it.
Tropical Freeze should've logically made Sakurai include Dixie Kong, especially with the huge outcry for a DKC newcomer- and her decent popularity on the ballot.. yet she didn't make it.

This doesn't rule out them, so it shouldn't rule out Impa either. All 3 characters are basically SECURED to have a future in their main franchise, and are therefore logical and 'safe' additions and from franchises that where around since the very first Smash Bros. infact. No reason to have a double standard with them here.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Impa

20% Chance

Impas greatest hurdle is her identity crisis. Is she the mentor or the guardian? We all know old lady Impa would not get in, but young Impa would. IMO it is this indecisiveness that hurts her chances.

80% Want

Second most Wanted Zelda newcomer and thrid most wanted zelda character.

Nominating Spyro x 5

DAY OVER, ALL THE CALCS INCOMING
 

TCT~Phantom

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Lucas
78.44% Chance
77.42% Want

His want score is super close to Wolf's which is neat. He is seen as likely overall, but a potential cut

The Wizard Lucas
0.11% Chance
9.93% Want

The potential memage of playing as him literally saved him from the bottom spot of both lists. At least Blue Bowser is no longer the least likely.

Greninja
90.11% Chance
77.98% Want

Seems like people do not see him on the chopping block. His want is not as high as I expected it to be though.

Mewtwo
91.43% Chance
93.05% Want

Mewtwo is now our second highest rated veteran in chance and highest in want. Wow.

Impa
26.94% Chance
49.08% Want

A strong performance, almost cracking 50% want. Good on Impa.

Autumn Breeze Autumn Breeze gets noms for Lucas. Mr. Nintendo Mr. Nintendo and @DaUsername get noms for the Wizard. @Cycrum gets noms for Greninja. Opossum Opossum gets noms for Mewtwo. Troykv Troykv gets the noms for Impa. You all get 5 noms.

Today we are rating Concept: Reused Veteran Art from Smash 4. Please rate in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Ganon tomorrow.
 

Icedragonadam

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Reusing Veteran Artwork

Chance: 5%

No I just don't see it happening. Especially if the graphics are going to have differences compared to Wii U(which is very likely). The artwork needs to match the graphic style of the game.

Want: 0%

Please no. I like seeing new character poses and comparing it to the last game.

Ganon Prediction: 20.76%

Nominate

Lloyd Irving x5
 
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Re Uesed Artwork

Chance- 5%
Maaaaaaaybe they would throw in some for E3 promotional purpouses, but I just cant see it happening in the game, even if the games a port.

Want- 0%
It would be pretty lame, for lack of better words.

Ganon- 24.38%

Funky Kong X 4
Thwomp X 1
 

Depressed Gengar

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Reused Artwork Chance: 5%
Only if the game's a port is this honestly possible, and let's be real here, it's very most likely not a port.

Want: 0%

Ganon Prediction: 20%

Nominations: Gengar X5

:094:
 

Opossum

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Reused Art
Chance: 5%
Literally only gonna happen if it's a port. The five percent is basically my feelings on the odds of it being a port.

Want: 0%
Lazy as hell.

Predicting a 12 for Ganon.
Nominating English Marth x10
 

Troykv

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Autumn Breeze Autumn Breeze gets noms for Lucas. Mr. Nintendo Mr. Nintendo and @DaUsername get noms for the Wizard. @Cycrum gets noms for Greninja. Opossum Opossum gets noms for Mewtwo. Troykv Troykv gets the noms for Impa. You all get 5 noms.

Today we are rating Concept: Reused Veteran Art from Smash 4. Please rate in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Ganon tomorrow.
Oh my goodness! I actually got the score right this time! :D

I again abstain because this depends comptelely in the Port vs No-Port argument.

________________________

Predictions:

Ganon: 21.4%

Nominaitons:

Tom Nook x6
KOS-MOS x4
 
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Reused Veteran Artwork

ABSTAIN

First time I'm completely abstaining from a ranking, but I really don't know what to make of this one, so just predicting and nominating today.

Ganon prediction: 16.29%

Nominations: Simon Belmont x4, Bomberman x1
 

Quetzal77

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Reused art
Chance: 0%
Not only is this game not a port, which is the only reason it would possibly happen, but Link already has a different design than in Smash 4.

Regarding Nintendo wanting to recycle art to be able to keep selling the same amiibo, I don't see why they would worry about that. If anything now they can sell 2 lines of Smash Bros amiibo since a lot of characters will likely get updated looks.

Want: 0%
While the art for Smash 4 was generally to my liking, I wanna see new art!

Ganon: 18.55%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5
 
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Reusing Art

Chance: 3%
It could happen if this started off as an enhanced port. But I doubt it did, and even then I think they would change up the art to make it clear that this is a new game. If we get a new amiibo line, then I think that would factor heavily into making sure that each character gets new artwork so Nintendo can make a quick buck.

Want: 0%
One of the few things we've rated that's actually gross to even think about.

Nominating KOS-MOS x10 (Lucas noms)

Pig Ganon prediction: 17.86%
 
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Concept: Reusing Character Art

EDIT: Chance - 0%

Between the time I made this post and updated it, we've seemingly gotten some confirmation that this is 100% a new game, due to a new rendering system being used.

I'm confident that we're not getting a port at this point. So, we're not getting any new art. I've still included my previous chance rating below though.

ORIGINAL: Chance - 1%

If it's a port, which is very, very unlikely at this point, we'll get reused character art. Otherwise, the fact that Link is already using his BotW art makes it unlikely that it'll be the case, even if it is a port.

Want - 0%

I honestly fail to see why anyone would want this. Seems like a huge waste of a day, honestly. I think Blue Bowser honestly might've been more of a compelling option for a day.

We really should start bringing back double days.

Nominations:
KOS-MOS x5
 
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-crump-

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Reused Smash4 Art

Chance: 1%
To parrot what has already said, the only way this happens is if this game is a straight port.

No way in hell is this game a straight port; Nintendo’s not stupid enough to put all their E3 focus onto a game that came out 4 years ago.

Want: 0%


Smash 4 had some terrible poses, and these ones take the cake. I can only hope these are much improved this time around.

Noms:
Tingle x5
 
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Scamper52596

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Reused Vet Art

Chance: 26%
I still feel that Smash for Switch might reuse a lot of elements from Smash for Wii U. Wouldn't surprise me at all if character portraits were one of those elements. If you purchase all the DLC in Smash for Wii U the character select screen gets arranged differently. It looks like it made room for even more characters to be added at some point if you get my idea. I do still think it's more likely we'll be seeing new character art because they've obviously had a few years to think about it. Just saying it's not out of the realm of possibility to see the old art.
I'll give the concept of reusing character art from the previous game a chance of 26%. Burning questions like these are why E3 can't come soon enough...

Want: 100%
I'm the proud owner of every Smash Bros. Amiibo to date. After years and a lot of money spent, I'd rather nothing tempt Nintendo to make a series 2 of the Smash Amiibo line. I wouldn't consider it good for my health, or even my wallet for that matter.

Prediction
Ganon: 14.8%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2
 

Lord-Zero

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Reused Character Art

Chance: 0.05%

- Unlikely. If they want money, they’ll do new art for the sake of a new Smash amiibo line.

Want: 0%

- Many of the poses were just terrible and many of the characters could use an update in their art.

Prediction

Ganon: 9.6%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x2
 
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Veteran Character Artworks Recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

It keeps the in-game CSPs consistent with Amiibo.

Nominations: Lip x5
 
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The Wizard Lucas
0.11% Chance
9.93% Want

The potential memage of playing as him literally saved him from the bottom spot of both lists. At least Blue Bowser is no longer the least likely.
I can’t fathom Blue Bowser being seen as more likely than anybody. But I digress

Reused art
Abstain
Not only do I not see the value in discussing this, I also don’t care.

Ganon prediction: 18%

Noms Mach RiderX5
 
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Reused art
Double zeroes
This is a new game, and this has never been done before.

Ganon Prediction: 14.47%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5
 

Sid-cada

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Reused Art

Chance - 0.5% - Could happen, but I think they wouldn't be that lazy.

Want - 30% - I dislike the idea, but I just can't bring myself to totally hate it.


Prediction

Ganon - 11.24% - Not seen as likely.


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5
 

Koopaul

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Reused Veteran Artwork

It's actually more likely than you think? Why? Amiibo.
Chance: 50%
You see if they want to relaunch their Smash amiibo line to coincide this game, they artwork would have to match the amiibos. Therefor the artwork would be the same. However, it is also very likely they will have a brand new set of Smash amiibos just for this game. If that's the case then they would use new artwork. Either way it entirely depends on what they want to do with the amiibos.

Want: 0%
I hate some of that artwork. DK and Diddy in particular look bad.

Predictions for Ganon
Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

Nominations
Barbara the bat ×3
Slime ×2
 

RandomAce

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Reused Artwork:

Chance: 10%

I can honestly see some characters resuing some of their art from Smash 4 that's only because of the amiibo line. You see if Nintendo were to create new artwork, then I guess the amiibo would have to be changed as well and ditch the old amiibo line up, this might boil up some fans who bought the amiibo since they have to buy the new amiibo to keep up with Smash 5.

But overall I really doubt it.

Want: 70%

The reason why I put it so high is because the artwork for all the characters in Smash 4 is the best in my opinion. All the characters look true to who they are and feel like the standard for future Smash games, so much so that I honestly can't see them doing better than that. This is also makes me worried since I don't want them to butcher up the artwork for the characters this time, I want the poses to be like Smash 4 and look vibrant and have awesome poses, and not something like Brawl where the realistic artstyle and the weird positions looked weird and awful (in my opinion).

Well that's it for me.

Prediction for Geno: 10%

Nominations:
x5 Lycanroc
 

Icedragonadam

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Hey so it's been unofficially revealed that Namco is also working on this game and when the game started development(August 2016).

994195612722577414 is not a valid tweet id

LinkedIn: https://jp.linkedin.com/in/tiago-sonobe-39281828

Can we Re-Rate Rex & Pyra and ARMs/Spring Man before E3?
 
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MasterWarlord

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Chance of Reused Art - 25%: This would be a 0% if this game wasn't reusing so many assets from the previous game, hopefully. The one issue that still makes this chance low is one of the very few pieces of information we have, that Link is using his BOTW design, means that he will at least will have new art. If Link has new art, odds are good most people will.

Reused Art Want - 50%: New renders would be nice, but I'd rather that time be spent on new characters. Either way, I don't have a strong opinion.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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Reused Character Artwork
Want: 50%
Chance: 50%

For the most part, I'm neutral towards this dilemma, but I will say that some character poses may have to be adjusted in the scenario that new amiibo sets are in development.
 

Opossum

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Chance of Reused Art - 25%: This would be a 0% if this game wasn't reusing so many assets from the previous game, hopefully. The one issue that still makes this chance low is one of the very few pieces of information we have, that Link is using his BOTW design, means that he will at least will have new art. If Link has new art, odds are good most people will.

Reused Art Want - 50%: New renders would be nice, but I'd rather that time be spent on new characters. Either way, I don't have a strong opinion.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
To be fair, the people making the renders and art wouldn't be the same people making the characters themselves. :p
 
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Sweet, more noms

Reused arts
Chance 1%
I think it's a new, new game means new arts. We already know Link is going to need new one. Although I could see Game & Watch being copied
Want 2%
I thought the Smash for render were gorgeous. But I want new stuff

Prediction Ganon: 15%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x10
 

TCT~Phantom

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Can we Re-Rate Rex & Pyra and ARMs/Spring Man before E3?
Unlikely. For one, you would need a massive effort to get them on the nominations list going forward.

If there is enough appeal for some rerates I can potentially slip in a rerate or two onto the schedule fro a double day.
 

Aetheri

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Reused Character Art

Chance: 1%
I doubt the artwork will be reused since a lot of characters are more than likely going to have updated designs going into this installment...Champion Link is already confirmed, Zelda will likely follow; Samus is more than likely going to take after Samus Returns, perhaps ZSS as well...as well as a few other characters will likely receive new revisions in their deisgns for this new game...

The Character art also provides a pretty important identity for the game as we can see between Melee, Brawl and Smash 4 how different they look from eachother...And looking at the tone of the Inklings trailer it seems to be taking a different mood than what we had in Smash 4 overall...Perhaps a theme that would fit between Brawl's more realistic side and Smash 4's more cartoony side...

Either way, it's not that hard to hire just one or more artists to come along and make new character art for all the characters, especially since this is likely a brand new game rather than just a straight port...to which I believe it is...

Want: 0%
I liked the character art for Smash 4, don't get me wrong...But pretty much the most exciting thing about seeing the veterans from previous games return is seeing how their looks have been updated...and it feels more dynamic to see them in different poses than what we've had before...makes everything seem a lot less static if you catch my drift...

Plus it comes across as being pretty darn lazy to just reuse all the artwork again...considering it wouldn't be too hard to have someone do new ones...

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Ganon-24.52%

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Dark Samus x5
 
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