Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Sid-cada]

Anthony Higgs

Chance - 0% - A one off character who must deal with might be the west's most wanted, and even besides him has superior competition. I don't think he has any sort of chance at all.

Want - 0% - I swear, if he gets in before even Dark Samus, I will rage.


Mach Rider Prediction - 17% - A retro with some support, though to be honest his outlook is kinda grim.

I miss a day and Anna passes Ephraim almost by 10 points.

Hey, I though you would post yesterday! You threw my calculations off. I'll still try and honor the deal, but it's going to be much harder to catch up.

Nominations
X5 Ephraim

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Chance: 5% The fact that I didn't remember who he was until today is my reason...
Want: 3%

Nomination:
X3 Dunban

 

[Toxicroaker]

Music Time! :D
King K. Rool: King K. Rool/Shipdeck (Brawl)
Vaati: The Legend of Zelda Main Theme (Brawl)
Waddle Dee: Butter Building and Squeak Squad Theme (Brawl)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AThGueayrJg&list=SPA2E3926DAFA8F80CJigglypuff: Route 209 (Brawl)Medusa: Reset Bomb Forest

 

[DukeofShorts]

How I feel when I see a bunch of low want scores

No but really Anthony's Chances are no more than 5.44%

Anthony Higgs want: 100%
He'll be fun to play as and is in my top five favourite supporting Nintendo characters along with Meta Knight, Impa, Groose, and Beetle. Although I did expect a greater want percentage. Oh well...

Mach Rider prediction: 7.5%
Never heard of him until he was high on the nominations chart but his game seems like fun.

Groose x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Anthony: 6% well if Sakurai feels the need to add a metroid character and can't add Ridley...
Want: 100% I DON'T KNOW **** ABOUT HIM BUT I WANT HIM

Mach Rider: 21% Ummm... Some rate low, some rate high. I will predict in da middle

Omastar x2
Bulborb x2
Wonder Red x1
Oh wait, extra noms. I believe I won my other noms from sand bag... Nice...
Omastar x4
Bulborb x3
Wonder Red x2
Tharja x1 =P

EDIT: Wait... Groose? Why did I win the extra noms? I believe I gave her a 5.4% and I saw someone else give Sylv a 3.75% which is only .15 off... Was your percentage off or did you secretly just want to give me noms?

 

[Glaciacott]

Anthony Higgs
Chance 2%
Because I'd be damned if I know what to expect from this. Sakurai seems to not mind Other M at all, but I really have no clue why he'd decide to ignore the fandom around Ridley to add in a catchphrase wonder.

Want 3%
Nope, not clicking on the videos. I REFUSE TO BE DRAWN IN BY HIS STYLE! Also, I kind of just like avoiding Other M as a whole.

Predictions
Mach Rider - 13.44%
Again, another wild card. One of those retro Nintendo characters Sakurai seems to like and I imagine people will latch onto that. Personally though, I imagine it'd be difficult to give him a new moveset while setting him apart. It'll be interesting to see what happens

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

Wait a minute ... Monkey has five more votes than I expected ... *checks*
YES!! Aqua Rock X, you're the best! CLIMB ON, LITTLE MONKEY!

 

[Yams]

Anthony Higgs: 1% He only gets that one percent because he is a Nintendo character. He is just a one time character. The only other Metroid rep should be Ridley and no one else. Anthony doesn't deserve a spot on the roster.
Want: 50% I could care less.

Mach Rider: 15%

Sukapon x5

 

[Erimir]

Groose - the song you have listed as called "Anthony Higgs" is not from Metroid at all. The guy who posted it was just trollin' by posting a Sonic song called "Remember Me?"

Use this instead:

I disagree, I kinda expected Sonic's return, but I held out thoughts that it would come later and have lower priority, and that Konami had a chance to reconcile for their dismissal of the Wii U... this is clearly not the case. I would now vote snake as low as 10% at this point, and Simon and Bomberman as straight up 0%. They don't support Nintendo, so they can't get anyone new, and Snake would be extremely hard to sell to the higher ups at Nintendo at this point... If the deal was made earlier then Konami would have revealed something for Wii U already, and all they do is openly insult it...

That might be, but I see Konami and Nintendo's relationship as separate from Sonic.

I don't see how Sonic returning has anything to do with that.

I have to agree. If Konami was going to release MGSV on the Wii U, then I would rate him a bit higher.

If being primarily on other consoles made Snake impossible for Smash, he never would've been allowed in in the first place. MGSV makes it worse, but not a lot worse than it already was, imo.

This is coming from someone who gave Snake a 1% want and doesn't think he belonged in Brawl in the first place.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Anthony Higgs want=0.5%

Mach Rider prediction=4.9%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Cheezey Bites]

That might be, but I see Konami and Nintendo's relationship as separate from Sonic.

I don't see how Sonic returning has anything to do with that.
If being primarily on other consoles made Snake impossible for Smash, he never would've been allowed in in the first place. MGSV makes it worse, but not a lot worse than it already was, imo.

This is coming from someone who gave Snake a 1% want and doesn't think he belonged in Brawl in the first place.

Sonic confirms that the 3rd party brawl vets where decided, and started, early, that's all. But given that Konami as a company hasn't released ANYTHING forWii U and has openly mocked it as not worth developing for... Back in brawl MGS wasn't on Wii, but other Konami games were so you could sell it to the share holders, now-a-days I doubt anyone would accept Sakurai making another deal with a friend without some sort of benefit to Nintendo.. clearly no such deal has been made since Konami are still not releasing anything for Wii U, and have a pitiful collection of 3DS titles that seems to have stopped too (of note the latest title Castlevania: Lords of Shadow Mirror of Fate is getting a HD remake for PS3 and Xbox, but not Wii U... and the only other title really worth noting being New Love Plus that hasn't sold as well as the original anyways).

It's not Sakurai I doubt at this point, it's Nintendo and Sora, neither of which should look upon Konami favorably, and would likely stop Sakurai from putting him in again. I also feel Konami would likely stand against his inclusion too given how they seem to want to distance themselves from Nintendo.

 

[Deleted member]

If being primarily on other consoles made Snake impossible for Smash, he never would've been allowed in in the first place. MGSV makes it worse, but not a lot worse than it already was, imo.

This is coming from someone who gave Snake a 1% want and doesn't think he belonged in Brawl in the first place.

That's true. As I see it now, I find it highly unlikely that he will return. The only chance I see that happening is if Sakurai really goes out of his way to include Snake (which he has done with Sonic in Brawl where he had to delay the game just to include him) and if Konami really wants him in SSB4. Seeing as how they are distancing themselves from the Wii U, I don't think this will happen.

I don't think he should have been in Brawl in the first place either. Again, I'm glad he got in because it opened the door for Sonic and Mega Man to get in. I find Simon Belmont (and Bomberman) to be better Konami reps as they have a better history with Nintendo.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Anthony Higgs 0.75%
He's a cool secondary one-time character, but the only Metroid characters with a worthwhile chance are Ridley and Dark Samus.

predict Mach Rider 8%

Victini x5

 

[djgeiger0620]

Anthony Higgs

Chance - 2%

Want - 0%

Mach Rider Prediction - 9.2%

Noms to Lloyd x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

likelihood - 2%.
want- 5%
prediction - 10%
wonder red x5

 

[Xenigma]

Groose, could you please add the new update schedule to the FAQ in the first post? Wanted to make sure the late update today wasn't due to the new schedule and one already has to dig back a few pages to find it. (In case anyone else cares, it's here.)

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Is it okay to post about Higgs now? It's technically past the update time. Oh well...

Anthony Higgs

Chance: 5% - I guess he's one of the more popular recent Metroid chars not named Samus, Ridley, Dark Samus, etc.

Want: 55% - So i herdz from a certain monkay taht Higgs got teh stylz!!! But seriously, I don't have a problem with him if he can add something new.

Mach Rider Prediction: 35% - Unanimously agreed to be the second most likely retro after Takamaru.

Nominations:
Victini x5

Edit: @Glaciacott: No problem. I just thought I could lend a helping hand.

 

[Groose]

Groose, could you please add the new update schedule to the FAQ in the first post? Wanted to make sure the late update today wasn't due to the new schedule and one already has to dig back a few pages to find it. (In case anyone else cares, it's here.)

Welp, I apologize. Just a few days after announcing the new update schedule... I get overtime and miss it. Oops. I'm in the process of updating things now... about five hours late. Oops. Oh, and it'll probably be the same deal tomorrow. Oops. I'll add that schedule to the OP, though; it is accurate for pretty much anytime I don't have overtime.

Insert Peppy Hare "SORRY GUYS" voice clip here.

Groose - the song you have listed as called "Anthony Higgs" is not from Metroid at all. The guy who posted it was just trollin' by posting a Sonic song called "Remember Me?"

Use this instead:

That might be, but I see Konami and Nintendo's relationship as separate from Sonic.

I don't see how Sonic returning has anything to do with that.
If being primarily on other consoles made Snake impossible for Smash, he never would've been allowed in in the first place. MGSV makes it worse, but not a lot worse than it already was, imo.

This is coming from someone who gave Snake a 1% want and doesn't think he belonged in Brawl in the first place.

Fixed. Thanks for pointing that out: I have never played Other M, so I was unaware that it wasn't the right one. Oddly, I don't recognize the song... what Sonic game was it in?

Anthony Higgs: 10%
I wouldn't even think to consider him... if it weren't for Sakurai-san. "Other M Samus! Other M animations! Other M stage! Other M for life!" Because he's from Other M... he gets a boost in my eyes.

Anthony Higgs Want: 40%
I never played Other M, but he seems like a pretty awesome character. However, he's not very important... and his inclusion would impede my second most-wanted newcomer's efforts.

Still, imagine this: "YOU'RE TOO SLOW!" "YOU GOT NO STYLE!" "YOU'RE TOO SLOW!" "YOU GOT NO STYLE!"

Mach Rider: 19.54%
This board favors Takamaru, but (s)he won't do nearly as poorly as Duck Hunt Dog.

Phoenix Wright x5
Just so I can do the music section for him... TAKE THAT!

 

[Groose]

Anthony Higgs (Metroid)
3.43% chance
13.64% want

YOU GOT NO STYLE! Anthony Higgs is now ranked dead last on the want list, behind the likes of SYLVEON, OWAIN, and SANDBAG! He finished fourth from last in want, too... ouch. Just not a good day for Anthony. You remembered him... but in a bad way.

Moving right on... today we will be rating the classic Mach Rider. Mach Rider has been referenced in Smash before... but does (s)he have what it takes to become playable? Please rate Mach Rider in chance and want.

Tomorrow's contestant is one they tell tales of... he is Llord Irving. Please predict how Lloyd will fare in tomorrow's game. Today's winner is Erimir; Spears in Smash Bros. is the true winner from yesterday, so he has extra nominations as well. I gave them to the wrong person yesterday by mistake... so Spears, you can thank Margnet Man for correcting me.

Also, I apologize for my late update. I had overtime. The same will probably apply tomorrow... but I should be back to the schedule by Friday!

 

[MargnetMan23]

Anthony Higgs (Metroid)
3.43% chance
13.64% want

YOU GOT NO STYLE! Anthony Higgs is now ranked dead last on the want list, behind the likes of SYLVEON, OWAIN, and SANDBAG! He finished fourth from last in want, too... ouch. Just not a good day for Anthony. You remembered him... but in a bad way.

Moving right on... today we will be rating the classic Mach Rider. Mach Rider has been referenced in Smash before... but does (s)he have what it takes to become playable? Please rate Mach Rider in chance and want.

Tomorrow's contestant is one they tell tales of... he is Llord Irving. Please predict how Lloyd will fare in tomorrow's game. Today's winner is Erimir; Spears in Smash Bros. is the true winner from yesterday, so he has extra nominations as well. I gave them to the wrong person yesterday by mistake... so Spears, you can thank Margnet Man for correcting me.

Also, I apologize for my late update. I had overtime. The same will probably apply tomorrow... but I should be back to the schedule by Friday!

You still counted my extra noms any way right? =P
Any ways...
Mach Rider: 18% If Sakurai wants to put him in and has ideas to put him in godamnit he will put him in!
Want: 30% indifferent.
Lloyd: 9%
Nomz: Omastar x2
Bulborb x2
Wonder Red x1

 

[Groose]

You still counted my extra noms any way right? =P

Of course. I appreciate you spotting me on that. Integrity is important in my book.

 

[Deleted member]

Well... I should have predicted Anthony even lower... meh. My predictions have been off as of recent. Hahaha.
Mach Rider
Chance: 13%
I can't really predict this guy. Although his game is referenced in the SSB games (he got his own trophy and music in Melee and I think a sticker in Brawl), I dunno if this truly gives him a big lead. He's a retro rep, but I haven't seen too much support for him as I do for Takamaru (who doesn't even have the biggest support in the world I think). I think it might be hard for Sakurai to implement him as a fighter to be honest, but then again he made characters like Captain Falcon, the Ice Climbers, and R.O.B. have their own unique movesets. So, I think 13% is probably the safest amount I can give. He doesn't have a ton of support and he might be hard to implement, but I think that Sakurai can do something with him. It's just going to be hard to imagine him fighting without his mach bike...
Want: 67%
And if his moveset turns out to be pretty cool, then by all means I would like him to be on the roster. I rather have Takamaru be the retro rep, but I wouldn't mind the Mach Rider.
Lloyd Prediction: 5.24%
With Namco helping out with the development of SSB4, I think we will inevitably see a Namco rep. I think the want percentage will be around Bomberman's.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

First off, thank you Margnet and Groose.

Mach Rider: 24.5%
He's a favorite of Sakurai's, and he's a retro Nintendo character, though he's just one of several retro protagonists that fit these criteria (i.e. Lip, Takamaru)

Want: 75%
He'd definitely be my pick for a retro character.

Lloyd Irving prediction: 9.5%

Nominate:
Klonoa x5
PLUS
Klonoa x5
Wahoo, mother******s

 

[Sid-cada]

Mach Rider

Chance - 20% - I'd say he has about average chances for a retro. To be honest, I lump Mach Rider, Muddy Mole, and various other retros together, as characters who do not have any significant advantages or disadvantages over one another. Sakurai has commented that he would be one of his favorite characters to include, but yet rejected him for "requiring ramps on every stage." I'd say that this is more a sign that he cannot see a moveset without being on a bike at all times, which is more difficult to make moves for.

Want - 60% - If a moveset could be made with him riding 24/7, that's just plain awesome. Otherwise, he has no interest from me.


Llord Irving Prediction - 3.7% - If he does significantly better than Anthony, I'd be shocked.

Nominations
Ephraim X3
Anna X1
Donbe and Hikari X1

 

[Xenigma]

Mach Rider - 5%
Were picking Smash Bros. candidates purely about picking the all-stars, I'm pretty sure Mach Rider would have zero chance, because he simply isn't one. However, conventional wisdom is that Sakurai likes adding a "retro" character each Smash, and based on trophy/music appearances from Mach Rider in the past, he's on Sakurai's radar. I wouldn't say he's likely by any stretch: there are still a handful of more visible retros out there, Wario already fills the motorcycle niche, and there's the off chance we don't get a retro (or at least not a NES-era retro) at all. Heck, a 1 in 20 rating might be a bit too generous. Still, he's got some potential to make the jump, which is more than most recent candidates here can say.
Want - 25% - I don't know much about him, but he seems like he has potential to be really neat if given the chance.

Lloyd Prediction - 8.5%
Because Namco, right?

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Mach Rider
Chance: 13% - He is not a very heavily requested character, and he has no move set potential to draw from his games.
Want: 2% - He is (in my opinion) one the most generic protagonists in Nintendo's history.

Lloyd prediction: 11%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Mach Rider's chances: 20%
Want: 80% - Would be my pick for a new retro rep.

Lloyd prediction: 6.73%

Andy x5

 

[Starbound]

Mach Rider:

Chances: 45%
Makes a lot of sense, especially if he's not on his bike.

Want: 95%
My favorite NES game ever.

Predicting 3.45% for Lloyd.

5x Toon Zelda/Tetra

 

[Zhadgon]

Mach Rider:

Chances: 27%
Retro Rep and Sakurai is looking for someone to bring back from the shadows.

Want: 80%
This character can provide new life to Nintendo consoles and can bring new fresh ideas to more games (anyone thinking that Retro should work in a spiritual successor).

Predicting: 55% for Lloyd

5 x Donbe and Hikari

.n_n.

 

[Erimir]

Mach Rider

Popularity and Relevance: Mach Rider would be a retro character, so these are less important.

Design: Well, in his game he's always on a motorcycle with a machine gun. And he's shown with a gun. This is fine for a couple special moves, but it doesn't really provide a full move set... But Sakurai is free to make stuff up to fill in the gaps. While Wario already has a motorcycle, Mach Rider would only share that one thing and his would probably work differently. Definitely one of the more unique choices, but not the easiest to envision.

Roster and Competition: There were two retro reps in each of the last two games. So he's competing against Takamaru, Lip, Duck Hunt Dog, etc. He might be competing against Little Mac as well, if Sakurai thinks of Punch-Out as still being a retro series, given that it was only recently revived.

Sakurai notes: Sakurai has said he likes the idea of being able to revive retro series like he did with Kid Icarus. Mach Rider would seem to be a pretty good candidate for that. Sakurai also said something about him once, so there's that.

Mach Rider chances: 15%
I don't really know how to rate him. He seems possible but not probable. Sakurai rejected him before, but he also likes him. And he's reconsidered some characters that he rejected in the past.

Mach Rider want: 50%
Mostly indifference.

Lloyd Irving prediction: 10%
I expect him to be crushed under Pac-Man's bootheel.

Nominations:
Mike Jones seems to be likely for after Lloyd, so...

Black Shadow x7
Wolf x3

 

[jaytalks]

Mach Rider
Likelihood: 25%
Based on the Mach Rider love in Smash, probably the next closest and most likely NES retro (after Takamaru). He was never not put in smash because of his bike (that was the Excitebiker). Lip isn't retro due to her series still alive and kicking in Japan. Little Mac stop being a retro when the Wii Punch Out came out. He is also helped by the fact that his game came out internationally. A great deal of the other NES retros can't make the same claim.
want: 80%
Seems like a cool character.

Lloyd prediction: 4.34%
Nominations:|
Phoenix Wright x 5
Played the 3DS demo. I agree with Groose.

 

[Glaciacott]

Mach Rider
Chances 13%?
I'm also quite unsure how to rate him/her. I guess it's possible, and it is true Sakurai has kept this retro game in mind for a while. But just how likely is really difficult to know.

Want 50%
Complete indifference. I leave my want at the mercy of what Sakurai would offer.

Prediction
Lloyd 7.35%
He's a fairly less absurd third party pick, but "Pac-Man or bust" reasoning will lower his score

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[Fastblade5035]

Bout time mah man Mach Rider got rated.

Mac Ryder

Chances; 15%
Gut feeling.

Want: 100%
My most wanted retro.

Lloyd: 3.2%

Noms;
Toon Ganondorf x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Mach Rider

Chance: 10%
Want: 15%

Lloyd: 7.8%

Nominations:
Anna x5

 

[FalKoopa]

The post-apocalypitic Mach Rider....
Likelihood: 16%
A small but decent chance. The second most likely retro after Takamaru, I believe. Sakurai has also talked about the game positively.

Want: 55%
Mostly indifferent. Knowing Sakurai, he would definitely give him a unique moveset and make him appealing, like all other retros.

Lloyd Irving prediction: 6%
He's firmly under the boot of Pac-Man and Snake, as far as 3rd parties go.

Fawful x 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Mach Rider - 18.5% A retro underdog and black knight!

predict Lloyd 6%

Victory for Victini x5!

 

[Yams]

Mach Rider
Likelihood: 15% I'd say he's less likely than Takamaru, Muddy Mole, and Duck Hunt Dog (though this one could be personal bias). He's not too far down the line, but I don't seem him getting in over the aforementioned characters. A few other notable problems is either you put him on the bike the whole time, and Sakurai has already said that this is what kept the Excite Biker out of Melee, or you give him a normal moveset with the bike as a special (most likely the side special). The side special Bike gimmick is already taken by Wario, so this would just seem strange. However, MegaMan has the Rush Coil and Sonic has the Spring which are two very similar attacks, so really who knows. It's up in the air, but I just don't see him getting in this installment.
Want: 75% I wouldn't be disappointed to see him, but I'd still prefer Takamaru, the Dog, and Muddy Mole.

Lloyd Irving: 1%

Sukapon x5

 

[Forde]

Mach Rider:

Want: 10% He's retro and such, but I really don't think he has a serious chance.

Chance: 5%

Lloyd Prediction: 25% I want him, but the chances are slim.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Mach Rider:

Likelihood: 17%

Want: 30% - Could be interesting.

Lloyd Prediction: 12%

Nominations:
5x Toad

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Mach Rider:

Chance: 8%
He's got a shot if Sakurai wants to surprise us all but I only see it if Wario gets his shoulder bash back, which is already fairly slim (but much wanted). He's a Retro who Sakurai has noted as a personal favourite, so he certainly has curve ball potential, but the better curve ball would be someone he didn't mention in an interview, and the more likely retros of that interview are Takamaru (he could easily translate into a 3D game, he's a samurai) or Lip (Puyo Puyo Tetris is trying to expand it's puzzly tendrils and addict inoccent tetris players, why can't Panel de Pon?)... I just don't see Mach Rider as a series that can come back, especially when F-Zero is still floundering without a game.

Want: 10%
Captain Falcon's already taken his moveset from Kamen Rider...


Lloyd Irving: 12%
I don't like the Tales games, I'm not the biggest fan of action battle in my RPGs (Megaman Battle Network aside), but other people seem to cream over them... He's certainly got fans given that he's even considered more important than Pac-Man for some reason, and in Japan he's probably even more popular than here (though I imagine less popular than Slime would be). His move set is apparently spelled out in his game as well.. which makes people think he's more likely for some reason... I just don't get it... So I'm gonna guess he'll do about as well as Layton for some reason.


Tails*2
Knuckles* 3

 

[Ephecus]

Mach Rider

Chance: 18 %
More likely than Duck Hunt Dog, more popular than Takamaru (at least in the US & Europe). I dont't think though that he really would wield a shotgun in Smash.

Want: 55 %
I have little to no connection to him, but I can see his Retro All-Star charme and he would be more deserving than most other Retro characters.

Lloyd Irving: 7.5 %

Nominations:
5x Daisy (Super Mario)