Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[SmashShadow]

Lloyd: 0% "I'm not just going to have any character participate from other companies"
He is not Namco's most popular rep. Heck, he's not even in second or third place!
Want: 0% The anime was cool but as far as being a character in smash, nope. He's not iconic enough for the role and it would be a waste of a roster slot to give it to a character of such little importance much less a 3rd party.

Mike Jones: 4.7%

5x Wolf

 

[FalKoopa]

Lloyd Irving:
Likelihood: 3%
As I said yesterday, he's behind Pac-Man, Snake and arguably Prof. Layton on the 3rd party ladder.

Want: 25%
I used to support him, but I've other characters to support, sorry.

Mike Jones prediction: 3%
Let's see how this turns out.

Fawful x 5

 

[Erimir]

Lloyd Irving

Popularity: Well, he seems popular among Tales fans. But not as popular as Pac-Man among Smash fans, to say nothing about overall.

Relevancy: He does have a decent Nintendo connection, so he wouldn't be an outrageous choice from that aspect. But he's not a video game icon - he doesn't rise to the level of a Snake, much less a Pac-Man, Sonic or Mega Man.

Design: I'm sure this is fine.

Roster and Competition: Aside from other 3rd parties, the problem is that Namco isn't likely to get more than one character, and Pac-Man is far and away the obvious choice for a Namco rep. Pac-Man doesn't have the strong connection to Nintendo that Mega Man or Sonic does (Sonic being Mario's rival at first, and now becoming more closely associated with Nintendo over time), but he is the most famous characters in gaming (essentially tied with Mario, and beating icons like Sonic and Donkey Kong).

Legal/Marketing: Nintendo would have to have some grudge against Pac-Man to pick Lloyd over him. Pac-Man seems a much better fit for the "all-star" theme, and probably would be better for marketing. Most people know who Pac-Man is, and will find his inclusion cool. Most gamers don't know who Lloyd Irving is, I'd guess. And I can't imagine that Namco finds the marketing benefit of Lloyd to outweigh Pac-Man either.

Lloyd Irving chances: 0.5%
Simply put, he gets crushed by Pac-Man. The difference between them is like Super Mario vs. Marth.

Lloyd Irving want: 40%
I'm mostly indifferent. But he seems to step on the toes of Shulk and Isaac a little bit in the kind of move set he would have, and I'd rather have either of them. I've also warmed up to Pac-Man a little bit. I still find him boring, but I won't be annoyed by his inclusion.

Mike Jones prediction: 4%
Yeah, mostly forgotten Western only release isn't going to rate too high. I've been promoting him because I thought he was the most interesting retro character left to rate.

Nominations:
Black Shadow x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 3% - He has to compete with Pac-Man and a whole bunch of Tales characters.
Want: 68% - For what it's worth, he seems pretty cool.

Mike Jones prediction: 3%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Lloyd: 10% Of getting in, it has only one obstacle and is a BIG YELLOW CIRCLE.
Want: 99% One of the best characters of the GameCube era, competing with Baten Kaitos for the best JRPG that have exist in that console. For the people that don´t know who is Lloyd or have never hear about this character and the Tales Series, I recommend if you can, play one, believe me even if you are not a fan of JRPG or RPG in general, I think this series can make you change your mind (Tales of Symphonia is one of my Top Ten games in my life).

Mike Jones: 15%

5x Donbe and Hikari

.n_n.

 

[XenothiumX]

Lloyd Irving
Likelihood: 3%

Want: 10%

Mike Jones
Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lloyd Irving:
Chances: 1%
Lloyd has things going for him: popularity, the Tales series being highly rated, but that's about it.
Lloyd isn't a household name like Megaman, Sonic, Pac-Man or even Solid Snake. He's a relative unknown and from a marketing point of view a waste of a roster slot. He has his fans, but the tales fanbase alone won't be enough to boost him above that of Pac-Man. Hell, I'd say Bomberman has a better shot of getting in over Snake than Lloyd does of over Pac-Man.
Even if Pac-Man doesn't end up being the Namco rep, there's also Klonoa to deal with. But I'd say Klonoa's chances are only really as good as Lloyds.

Want: 1%
No thanks. I'd rather see the swordsmen from Brawl and Melee reappear before we commit to a third party one. Also Lloyd isn't really well known enough to be classified as a "Legendary" character. But hey, at least his main game was ON a Nintendo console which puts him above Cloud in my terms of want. Pac's just the more obvious, more unique, more famous choice.

Mike Jones: 3%
Before I came back here this summer I hadn't a clue who the hell this guy was, and being an American only release is going to affect his score I'm sure...

Nominations:
Captain Syrup X 5

 

[Xenigma]

Lloyd Irving - 0%
Let's be clear: if we get a Namco rep at all, it'll be Pac-Man. Like, Sakurai would have to be crazy or really dislike Pac-Man to not target him as the obvious Namco choice. Even if the leak proved false and Pac-Man was out of the picture, though, I have trouble seeing how Lloyd ends up on the roster. Tales may have a following, and the Gamecube's Symphonia may be beloved by series fans, but that doesn't automatically make Lloyd a Smash candidate. He's not an all-star, he's no special case, he's just one reasonably popular Namco character who happened to have his game on a Nintendo console. That's not about to earn you a spot in SSB4, not with the strict third party guidelines Sakurai has laid down.
Want - 0% - Honestly, Lloyd could be a great Smash character. However, the thought of him sneaking in over Pac-Man as some sort of obligatory Namco rep and probably knocking out Isaac in the process is nightmare fuel for me.

Mike Jones - 2%
I feel like this round is going to be ugly.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

100th page!! Not quite the milestone that day 100 would be but it's something!

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 5% - Doesn't look good for him unfortunately

Want: 80% - If we had to have another 3rd party not named Snake, I'd go with him. He's not Pacman iconic, but he could make an interesting character. I loved Tales of Symphonia and I'm not afraid to admit it!

Mike Jones Prediction: 1% - Only a few speak of his name.

Nominations:
Rhythm Monkey x5

 

[Ephecus]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 0.5 %
Lloyd is missing the "legendary"-status that Sakurai spoke of and the Tales-series isn't directly connected to a Nintendo-console so his chances are pretty grim.

Want: 25 %
I don't know much about Tales of Symphonia, but Lloyd looks pretty generic to me and he would take a spot from a possible more wanted newcomer (except if Pacman would take that spot.)

Mike J. Prediction: 7.77 %

Nominations: 5x Daisy (Super Mario)

 

[Forde]

Lloyd Irving
Chances: 5%

Want: 40% Definitely a cool character to see from Namco, but Pac-Man does unfortunately have a bigger name behind the company.

Mike Jones Prediction: 4% I honestly have no idea who he is.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Music for Lloyd: Fighting of the spirits, Fatalize, and Final Destination

 

[kikaru]

Chances: 2% Personally I believe the third party cast is perfectly fine with Sonic and MegaMan. The only addition I would like to see is the return of Snake in terms of third party characters as he has demonstrated his ability to fit into the cast quite well.

Want: 100% From a gameplay standpoint I know that Lloyd would be an incredibly fun character to play as with his ridiculous combo abilities and wide variety of artes.

Mike Jones: 1.99%

Nominations
Tiki x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lloyd:

Likelihood: 1% - If anymore 3rd parties, it'll only be Pac-Man.

Want: 5% - Meh.

Mike Jones: 4%

Nominations:
5x Toad

 

[djgeiger0620]

Lloyd:

Chances: 25%

I have my reasons for rating his chances higher than the majority of you have rated him. Unfortunately, today is an extremely busy day and I don't have the time. Maybe I'll post again later.

Want: 100%

Duh.


Mike Jones: 4.22%

Noms to Tails x5

 

[Groose]

Lloyd Irving: 3.33%​

Namco has no special treatment... so why would they get anyone other than their mascot? Popularity could do it, and Lloyd is pretty popular... but not quite enough for him to be a special case.

Lloyd Want: 20%
Never played his games, Pac-Man supporter, all that jazz.

Mike Jones: 8.63%
Eh... depends on how many of his lackeys show up.

Phoenix Wright x5
TAKE THAT!

DAY OVER

GROOSE IS LOOSE​

​

(and on time for once...)​

 

[Groose]

Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)
4.00% chance
28.34% want

Lloyd Irving had a rough day. He got annihilated in chance and even lost to his old rival Pac-Man in want by a decent margin. Still... not as bad as Anthony did a few days ago.

Today we will rate Mike Jooooooones, the American-born wonder. Will he have the power to rise into Japan? Please rate Mike Jones in chance and want.

Tomorrow we shall rate... another Smash character. God have mercy on him. Please predict how Sandbag Primid will perform in tomorrow's contest. I should note that DarkKry4 won the extra nominations today... and because he hit it dead on (becoming the third person to do so), he will win TEN extra nominations. Gratz!

 

[MargnetMan23]

Yay I missed a day =D
I like how dead on is considered impressive when Lloyd got a 4% chance exactly XD Either way...
Mike Jones he's from America and I do not see much to indicate he has much going for him at all...
2% unless I read some good arguments that make me want to boost my chances
Want: 30% indifferent. (30% is indifferent to me... *shrugs*)
Primid: .82% SMASH IS AN IMPORTANT FRANCHISE TO REPRESENT GODAMNIT SAKURAI GET ON IT! Realistically it is actually a very interesting idea but we're going to diss the idea and I doubt Sakurai would take it into serious consideration.
Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[BluePikmin11]

Mike Jones chance: 7% It's certainly possible, but only if Sakurai researches more about American Nintendo games.
Mike Jones want: 45% He would definitely be an awesome character to play as.
Primid Prediction: 0.75% You guys, SSE is gone now, now that theres no story mode. So it's very very unlikely Primid will be picked.
Nominations:
x5 Tom Nook

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Mike Jones: I'll just go with 0.75% for this one

Want: 5%
Star Tropics seems like a pretty interesting RPG...or was that Star Ocean? I can't remember. Still, I have no idea who he is exactly, so I'm rating him low to be safe.

Primidiction: 0.4%

Nominate:
Neku & Shiki x2
Captain Syrup x3

 

[colder_than_ice]

Mike Jones
Chance: 0% - Ironically, the rapper is probably better known in Japan than he is.
Want: 0% - He sticks bananas in his ears for crying out loud.

Primid: 1%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Deleted member]

EDIT: I changed my want percentage. Sorry Groose!


Mike Jones
Chance: 4%
I don't think having his game not be in Japan to be a hurting factor considering we got Marth, Roy, and Lucas in a SSB game. However, despite its popularity, StarTropics gets little to no references or mentions by Nintendo. Not only that, but he also suffers from competition from other retro reps, including Takamaru. I am also unsure about how much support Mike Jones has. There's... not much I can really say about him to be honest.
Want: 0%
I gave him a 50% before. But... now that I think about it, I would be a bit disappointed if he got in over someone else that I wanted. So... no. I don't want him. There's potential to be had, but I don't think it's worth it.
Primid Prediction: 0.72%
Yes, I am going to rate the Primid that low. If Sandbag was rated so lowly, then I can't imagine how well the Primid will preform.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Mike Jones: 2%
Want: 25%
Primid: 0.5%
Nominate:
Yarne x 3
Ridley x 2

 

[NickerBocker]

Mike jones

Chance: 4%
Want: 0%

Primid: 1.1%

Nominations:
Anna x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Mike Jones has a strong enough cult/retro following to warrant a 21% from moi.

predict: 0.5%

Victini x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Mike Jones' chances: 5%
Want: 50%

Primid prediction: 0.64%

Andy x5

 

[Morbi]

Mike Jones Chance: 100%

I don't really need to elaborate. He is the best.

Mike Jones Want: 100%

This is a spectacular Nintendo character. I didn't know much about him until I looked at his Wiki page. I want him really badly. I only knew about the rapper. However, upon further inspection... I did realize that he knows how to fight. His move-set would be fairly unique.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Jones_(boxer)

 

[Sid-cada]

Mike Jones

Chance - 0% - I'd say that it's 50/50 Sakurai could even know that he even exists. That does not bode well for his chances. Assuming Sakurai even knows of the character, I'm not to sure why he would go after him in the first place.

Want - 20% - Eh. Don't think he's quite interesting enough. I kind of get the feeling some folks want him as a character to represent western-only games, which doesn't sit well with me.


Primid Prediction - 1.8% - Smash Brothers originals never do well.

Nominations
Ephraim X5

 

[Glaciacott]

Mike Jones

Chance - 3.5%
Yea, don't see it happening. I even imagine some of his moves losing the unique edge due to Earthbound having similar weapons. Of course, this is all assuming I know wtf I'm talking about, which I'm not sure of anymore. Is this the same guy people would like to talk about for Brawl from that game that has Soda or something in it? I'm going to guess he is because that's just how much I care.

Want - 20%
I'm completely indifferent, but then when I reflected and asked myself "Myself, would it bother you to see Mike Jones in this game?" I was surprised to discover it actually bothers me a little.
And a surprising amount of that dislike stems from how generic the name is. Mario vs. Sonic vs. Mike Jones doesn't sound like an all-star fight, it sounds like a fanfic written by some guy called Mike Jones.

Prediction
Primid - 0.58%
This time it was a question of which decimal between 0 and 1 to choose. In that sense it was difficult. Probably will be harder once we get to the Yarnes and Omastars.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey

 

[Xenigma]

Mike Jones - 0%
Out of curiosity, I googled Mike Jones to learn more about the character, knowing little about him and having never played StarTropics. It took until page six of results to find a link to a brief Nintendo Wiki article about him. Beating him out included Mike Jones the rapper, Mike Jones the boxer, Mike Jones the jazz pianist, Mike Jones the football player, Mike Jones the baseball player, Mike Jones the graphic designer, Mike Jones the realtor, Mike Jones the lawyer, Mike Jones the aircraft salesman, Mike Jones the flooring salesman... I get that it's a generic name, but honestly, if that doesn't tell you how insignificant Mike Jones the Nintendo character is, I don't know what does.
Want - 0% - Could potentially be neat, but I don't really care about him, so I can't rightly say I want him over any number of other characters.

Primid Prediction - 0.6%
Judging by these predictions, it seems no one expects a generic Primid to become playable.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Mike Jones: I don't know who this is so...yea...
Chance: 2%

Want: 0%

Prediction for Primid: 0.64%

Nominations
Little Mac x5

 

[Starcutter]

Mike Jones - 0%
Out of curiosity, I googled Mike Jones to learn more about the character, knowing little about him and having never played StarTropics. It took until page six of results to find a link to a brief Nintendo Wiki article about him. Beating him out included Mike Jones the rapper, Mike Jones the boxer, Mike Jones the jazz pianist, Mike Jones the football player, Mike Jones the baseball player, Mike Jones the graphic designer, Mike Jones the realtor, Mike Jones the lawyer, Mike Jones the aircraft salesman, Mike Jones the flooring salesman... I get that it's a generic name, but honestly, if that doesn't tell you how insignificant Mike Jones the Nintendo character is, I don't know what does.

THAT'S your reason for rating him that bad? really?

Anyways:
Mike jones: 8% he has potential, but it's a character japan doesn't care about AT ALL.
Want: 30%

Primid: 0.39%

Nominations:
Lucario x4
Phoenix wright

 

[Deleted member]

Mario vs. Sonic vs. Mike Jones doesn't sound like an all-star fight, it sounds like a fanfic written by some guy called Mike Jones.

I dunno why, but this gave me a good chuckle.

 

[DarkKry4]

Mike Jones

Chance - 0%
Too far of a reach for him to even be considered.

Want - 0%
Would have been higher if it were the rapper. At least i know him.

Primid - 0.3%

x15 Pauline

 

[SchAlternate]

I have returned! Somewhat. Yeah. At least now I'm home and with a more stable internetz connection (and personal space).

Mike Jones the rapper the boxer the video game character
Likelihood: 2% - Not a chance in hell, unfortunately. Among all the obscure retros we've seen, I think he's the, if not one of the, most obscure of the bunch. While Sakurai would make a fine job at bringing him back to the light, I'm not even sure if even he knows who Mike is.
Want: 5% - Now, I don't hate him, I just don't really want to see him at the expense of other retros I'd like to see more (coughlipcough). I also find him a bit to generic for my tastes (unless he undergoes the Pit treatment), and, really, I think we've got enough characters whose moveset is based around spawning random objects from hammerspace (Mr G&W, Villager, possibly Ness).

What's his face
Prediction: 0.34% - Wait a minute, wasn't Primid at the very bottom of the nominations list!? God, was I gone for too long? Oh whatever. Tomorrow we will drown in zeroes. Speaking of which...

Nominations
Just for the lulz:
Zero (Mega Man) x3
Sukapon x2

x5 Pauline

In case you didn't notice, you won extra noms today.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Mike Jones: 0.1%... there's only 1 thing 2 say it's more than three words. Japan won't want a character that has not had a game in there ccccoooouuuuunnnnttttrrrryyyy.... yea... not... going... to... happen...
Want: 0.000000000000000000000000001% (0%)

Primid: 1.75%
Primid Music: Subspace Area, Danger Ahead, and Tabuu

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[DarkKry4]

In case you didn't notice, you won extra noms today.

i had no idea. whoops. thanks for that.

 

[FalKoopa]

Mike Jones:
Likelihood: 1%
His games haven't been released in Japan. If he's so unknown to Sakurai's target audience, I have a seeing him make the cut.

Want: 0.1%
There are tons of characters I'd rather have.

Primid prediction: 3%
I'm curious as to whether they will appear in Smash 4 at all. XD

Fawful x 5

 

[Starbound]

Likelihood: 0%
I don't even think Sakurai knows who he is.

Want: 0%
Mach Rider > Bubbles > Takamaru > every other retro

5x Toon Zelda/Tetra nomz

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Who the hell is Bubbles?

Mike Jones chance=0.1%

Mike Jones want=0%

Primid prediction=0.5%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki