Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Gam3rALO]

Masked Man
Chance: 3%
I see it very unlikely for a new Mother series rep.
Want: 1%
There are hundreds of characters that deserve a spot a lot more than him.

Prediction for Vaati: 9%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[Primid]

MASKED MAN

Likelihood: 12% In my eyes, the Mother series is worthy of another rep. But in the grand scheme of things, I'm fairly certain it isn't going to happen. The series only has 3 games which is extremely small compared to many of the other franchises. I love Masked Man and the Mother series, but he has a lot to compete with.

Want: 95% If the Masked Man got in, I'd probably start doing victory laps around my living room and jump up and down on my furniture, rejoicing! He's my favorite character from the Mother universe since I can relate to him (I'm a twin like Claus is and we have similar personalities). Plus, he's got moveset potential, one that differentiates greatly from that of Ness and Lucas (He has an arm cannon, a lightning sword and he's a PSI user...what's not to love?) I'm pretty sure his chances are slim so I won't be too displeased if I don't see him on the roster.

Nominations:
Porky x3
Chibi-Robo x2

 

[Erimir]

Really? I thought the goal was just to have fun. Why not bother? It takes no effort to spill up a number; even I've admitted that in "The Probable Character Roster" - Anyone can do it.

Well, I think anyone who's spent time on this board should realize that "having fun" means different things to different people. In my case, I think this is more fun when you try to reason things out and keep in mind the limitations. I like debating things, so it's not really a dichotomy between "fun" and keeping in mind that numbers represent things.

So I like to reason about it. Like the fact that since Sakurai has stated he's not focused on just adding more characters means that 50+ roster is very unlikely, and it's possible it won't even make it to 45. That means slots are limited and not every series can get a new character. That he's trying to balance out the series means that a well-represented series (relative to its popularity, sales and fan familiarity) like Mother won't likely be getting new characters before underrepresented ones. That he wants to add new series including retro means the slots for existing series are limited. That he thought about cutting Ness in favor of Lucas, implying that Sakurai isn't completely sure Mother deserved two reps in the first place!

Yeah, 65% is abit high, I'll agree on that, but it's not anywhere near fanbias, especially since we all have different ways for doing ratings.

I looked at your argument, and it boils down to "it would complete the series" and that you think Sakurai likes Mother. Ignoring the fact that many series have no representation and that far more important series (Donkey Kong being the obvious one here) are not completed either.

None of which adds up to a decent chance, much less significantly more likely than not.

But whatever, you can think he's pretty likely, it's you who will be disappointed when the roster is revealed.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

But whatever, you can think he's pretty likely, it's you who will be disappointed when the roster is revealed.

lol no; I won't really care. I care for actual working online and features among other things. Despite my two threads here and me talking a lot in the character prediction thread, I've cared about roster less and less come every Smash game. Working online and fresh new features that keep it differentiating from the others are from me.

This is pointless to continue and I could really care less, so I'll just drop it from here.

 

[Sebz]

Masked Man~ 15%
Might seem a little high, but I feel that there are many ways for him to make it. One: Sakurai decides to add another Mother rep, from which he seems the most likely IMO. Two: Ness is cut as intended in Brawl, and we are left with a Lucas and Masked Man match up.

Want~ 70%
He seems to have the most interesting design out of all the Mother characters and having both a sword and an arm cannon would lend itself to a great moveset.
Also, having him fighting Mega Man makes to much sense.

Vaati~15%
He has low chances, but not nearly as low as other people have posted (I think).

Noms~
Mach Riderx5

 

[Glaciacott]

Darth Claus
Chances - 3%
I really really really don't see it happening. He's a meaningful character with solid potential, but in the greater context of things his impact as a Nintendo character is just very small. Personally, I'm one of the few here that believe Mother should get a new rep. Nintendo noticed just how much people clamored for Earthbound and they went through and did it, so now more than ever the series is on the rise in terms of attention and Nintendo is aware of this.
But, IF we do get a Mother rep, I'd rather it'd be Porky. He just means more to the series. I'd continue the argument, but I'd rather wait until Porky's day arrives ... eventually.

Want - 5%
He seems cool and all that, but him being in the game means Porky won't be. So no, don't want him.

Vaati predictions
11% - I think people found him more likely for Brawl, but now there'll be more interest in no new Zelda reps or stuff from Skyward Sword.

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[shinhed-echi]

MASKED MAN:

Chance: 10%
You can never say never about overrepresenting a series like Sakurai does.
But I think MM is very unlikely. For starters... another sword. Yeah I know he has a lot of other moves too, but we got NEW games with swordsmen that can also do a lot more than slash their way to victory.
Not to mention Mother 3 is still Japan exclusive... Sakurai might want to either tone that down, or at least pick another Japan only series this time.
Plus his name would be Masked Man? Doesn't really ring a Playable Character bell. (Plus he's a kid, not a man, lol)

Want: 0%
I really really liked Mother 3, but this is really pushing it. Masked Man, AKA

Spoiler

Claus

can be easily accessed by a palette swap on Lucas. I know this kind of enters a Mario-Wario terrain, hence why I put this reason under WANT, because I am fine with you know who as an alternate color scheme for Lucas.


Saki x5

 

[SchAlternate]

You know, I wonder why people still try to keep Masked Man's identity a secret, since basically the entire internet has already spoiled it many years ago.

 

[Ephecus]

Masked Man

Chance: 2 %
Mother is already more than just well off for only having 3 games in it's series. Giving it a 3rd rep while the Yoshi-series doesn't even have a second one would be pretty unfair.
Want: 30 %
Falling more into the spectrum of "I'd rather have somebody else".

Vaati Prediction: 7.5 %
Some people are overly optimistic here.

Nominations:
5x Medusa

 

[NickerBocker]

Masked Man: 5%
I dont see it happening. Mother has enough characters as is, and their series is done (at least for now.)

Want: 0%
Im pretty unfamiliar with him, and just not interested.

Vaati: 6.2%
Although I hope hes included, There are other characters that are just as or more viable, so his chance will be low.

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Oh boy, Oh boy, Masked Man time...
Prediction:45%
Might be a little biased, but he's tied in first with the next mother rep, Porky and Ninten are the ones tied with him.

Want:100%
Has an Awesome Design, great moveset potential- I mean he has cyborg wings, a sword, arm cannon, and of course PSI, his abilties and looks make him a bad***.

Vaati: 5%
A series considered complete, and not even in the top five newcomer reps of the series, I think. Not that likely.

 

[Yams]

Masked Man:
Likelihood: 10% No eatherbound new reps needed
Want: 35% I'd rather have other characters

Vaati: 17%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Masked Man chances: 5%. I don't see the MOTHER series getting another rep
Want: 60%. Don't particularly care much, but he could be pretty interesting, assuming they didn't pull a Star Fox again *coughlandmastercough*

Vaati prediction: 20%. I actually think he's more likely than most other potential Zelda newcomers, but he isn't really a popular choice from my perception (Although I could be dead wrong about that)

Skull Kid X5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Masked Man

Likelihood: 10% - Another Mother character would be a little too much

Want: 65% - Would be a cool addition

Vaati: 23%

Primid x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Masked Man:

Chance: 0.1%
Mother has three games, and two representatives; as ratios go that's pretty excellent. I love the Mother franchise, but it's not going three for three.

Want: 5%
The thing about the masked man was what he meant to the plot, the reason he was so memorable and it was such an important boss fight was because of the plot up to that point. In smash they won't have time to do that, and he'll feel cheapened. That said he's got some interesting move set potential (though not the most exciting to me), so as a character he'd be passable, but as masked man he'd be disappointing.


Vaati: 6%
He's a boss, or maybe assist trophy at best; some will vote for him though.

Slime*5
(Just realised Slime's higher than Lloyd; Who'da gunk it?)

*I don't want to use u-slurp-er yet, but I think I'm gonna have to start soon*

 

[FZ64]

Masked Man:

Chance 5-10%-another MOTHER rep seems rather unlikely :/

Want: 80% er my avatar should be enough but I liked his back story and his design, and he has a move pool to not be another Ness clone.

The wind mage Vaati 25%

 

[Forde]

Masked Man

Chance: 5% I really don't see another Mother series rep being introduced, as cool as it might be.

Want: 5% There are a lot of different characters from other Nintendo series that I would prefer to see be newcomers.

Vaati Prediction 35%

Nominations

Cloud Strife x5

 

[Xenigma]

Kinda funny that the first news we've had that might affect a rerate comes from Pokemon X/Y, not from SSB4 itself. New Lucario evolution is kinda a big deal, though I'm just impressed that every single one they revealed happens to be for a Pokemon I'm already a big fan of.

Masked Man - 0%
Considering I've never even played Mother 3, I considered skipping this round, but I'm going to be bold and stick with my gut. Simply put, considering there's only three games, the last game being from 2006, the last game to leave Japan was released in 1995 (!), and that the series has generally unimpressive sales, it's pretty amazing the Mother series has 2 reps already, including one from Mother 3. It's a credit to the fans of those games that they've gotten that much while other, arguably more successful franchises have nothing (Punch-Out!!, Golden Sun, Wars, etc). However, being a cult favorite can only get you so far, and unless Sakurai is an absurdly biased Mother fan, I can't see the franchise getting a third character while so many great candidates still exist for franchises that either haven't been in Smash yet or are otherwise more deserving of additional representation. In a future Smash, given an international revival of the franchise and a return of Masked Man? Sure, why not. Right now? Not a chance.
Want - 0% - He could be the coolest character in the world, but I can't help but feel a third Mother character would be a complete waste of a slot.

Vaati Prediction - 7.5%
He's going to get some awful ratings, but considering he's a recurring Zelda villain, a rarity in and of itself, he should have fans.

Nominations
Sonic x5

 

[Sid-cada]

The Masked Man

Chance - 0.5% - Very tiny chances. If we were to get a Mother Representative, I can almost guarantee you than Porky will get it instead. Any Mother newcomer at all has a slim chance of occurring. He doesn't stand a chance.

Want - 38% - He does have some interesting abilities, but not enough for me to pull him out of rather having other characters.


Vaati Prediction - 11% - It's been almost a decade sense we last saw him. Sadly, he might not have what it takes.

Nominations
Lucas X2
Lip X3

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Masked Man

Chance: 14% - The Mother series seems complete but if it did get another character, it'd likely be him or Kumatora.

Want: 55% - Eh, for no other reason than because Masked Man sounds like an epic robot master for Mega Man to fight... YOU GOT LIGHTNING SABER!!

Vaati Prediction: 23% - One of the more hot topics among Zelda characters in the past, but lost his edge now.

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Masked Man:
Prediction: 6%
Masked Man was an antagonist in one game, and is very unlikely to appear in any other game ever again except for cameo appearances.

Want: 20%
I've never played Mother 3, but the idea of Lucas with a lightsaber is interesting.

Vaati: 6%

Nominate:
I kind of screwed up the other day when I nominated "Kunio-Kun/Ryan (River City Ransom)". Kunio is called Alex in the English release of that game. Ryan was the other playable character, a guy by the name of Riki. That being said,

Kunio-Kun/Alex x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Masked Man

Likeliness: 18%
While the MM is one of the most likely Mother rep, I don't really see Mother getting a 3rd rep. It could happen but I consider it fairly unlikely.

Want: 70%
I've never played a Mother game but I'm a huge fan of the MM. He just oozes uniqueness and playability. Seriously, take Metaknight and combine him with Samus mixed in with some really cool moves and abilities. BOOM!!!

Vaati: 13.5%

Nomz: Nightmare x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

5% Mother probably isn't getting a new rep especially since some of us doubt that freakin' LUCAS will return and he does have competition
Want: 20% I wouldn't hate him but I haven't really played Mother 3 and sadly I probably never will (he's from mother 3 right? ) So yeah whatever

Vaati: 9.4%

Mr. Game and Watch x5

 

[Groose]

Sorry about the music section guys, I had a busy day today. I'm on it now, but it still may be awhile; I'm a stranger in the world of Mother and I'm trying to teach myself the tunes.

Tomorrow's music section, though... *cue evil laughter*

Kinda funny that the first news we've had that might affect a rerate comes from Pokemon X/Y, not from SSB4 itself. New Lucario evolution is kinda a big deal, though I'm just impressed that every single one they revealed happens to be for a Pokemon I'm already a big fan of.

Yeah, this is highly ironic. Personally, I'm a huge fan of all of the Pokemon who got Mega formes, but the only Mega formes I actually like are Absol's and Mewtwo's. Lucario's isn't bad... but I love his normal forme so much that his new one can't compare.

I'd actually argue that Luigi's early reveal may boost the chances of the potential Mario newcomers if we were to rerate them. I'd personally be comfortable giving Bowser Jr. and Toad 5% boosts from my previous scores.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Sorry about the music section guys, I had a busy day today. I'm on it now, but it still may be awhile; I'm a stranger in the world of Mother and I'm trying to teach myself the tunes.

Tomorrow's music section, though... *cue evil laughter*
Me too my bowser jr and toad votes get an addition 5%




Yeah, this is highly ironic. Personally, I'm a huge fan of all of the Pokemon who got Mega formes, but the only Mega formes I actually like are Absol's and Mewtwo's. Lucario's isn't bad... but I love his normal forme so much that his new one can't compare.

I'd actually argue that Luigi's early reveal may boost the chances of the potential Mario newcomers if we were to rerate them. I'd personally be comfortable giving Bowser Jr. and Toad 5% boosts from my previous scores.

 

[Groose]

...

...
...?

Masked Man Chances: 10%
Sakurai really enjoys the Mother series. It's not really a secret. Look at Lucas and his role in the SSE, look at Ness making the first Smash, look at some of the references in Kid Icarus: Uprising.

I doubt Sakurai's love of the Mother series will be enough to get them a THIRD representative... but stranger things have happened. And the Masked Man may be the most likely candidate. Last I checked, Sakurai saw Porky as boss material (this may have changed) and one cannot grasp the true form of Giygas. I suppose Porky and Ninten are his biggest competition, but I see the Masked Man as the most likely candidate for an unlikely spot.

Masked Man Want: 5%
[collapse=SPOILERS BEWARE] Claus is a good palette swap. I'd rather have Porky or no Mother newcomer at all. [/collapse]

Vaati's Prediction: 14.23%
I'm surprised we're rating him before Ghirahim. Vaati has had three games... but I thought people viewed him as old news?

Medusa x5
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the light. And she'll be my favorite music section to make this side of the Zelda franchise.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Masked Man
Chance- 10%- I'm nearly positive Mother/Earthbound will get another rep.
Want- 5%- I've never played Mother/Earthbound So I have no idea who he is, but he looks pretty bland.

Vatti Prediction- 15%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2

 

[SchAlternate]

Kinda funny that the first news we've had that might affect a rerate comes from Pokemon X/Y, not from SSB4 itself. New Lucario evolution is kinda a big deal, though I'm just impressed that every single one they revealed happens to be for a Pokemon I'm already a big fan of.

Wait, hold on! WHAT THE HECK LUCARIO CAN EVOLVE NOW WHAT THE HECK AHHHH!!! HOW DID I NOT NOTICE!!!!

 

[Groose]

Wait, hold on! WHAT THE HECK LUCARIO CAN EVOLVE NOW WHAT THE HECK AHHHH!!! HOW DID I NOT NOTICE!!!!

It's only been out for less than 12 hours. Relax, you're not far behind the times.

Check out a Pokemon gaming site for the pic. I know serebii.net has them up on their homepage.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

It's only been out for less than 12 hours. Relax, you're not far behind the times.

Check out a Pokemon gaming site for the pic. I know serebii.net has them up on their homepage.

will this mega form be allowed for a nomination? not going to nominate him just wondering.

 

[cephalopod17]

Masked Man Prediction: 5%
Mother/Earthbound dose not need a new rep according to some and it could be Ninten or Porky

Masked Man Want: 10%
Not a big Mother/Earthbound fan, but he seems cool

Vaati Prediction: 14%

Nominations:
Medusa x2
Louie (Pikmin) x3

 

[MargnetMan23]

It's only been out for less than 12 hours. Relax, you're not far behind the times.

Check out a Pokemon gaming site for the pic. I know serebii.net has them up on their homepage.

Also on that topic... Mega Evolutions ****ing suck -_-

 

[colder_than_ice]

Masked Man
Chance: 4% - There isn't much room for a third Mother rep, especially seeing as how the franchise has been (as of now) retired.
Want: 14% - I don't like Vader jr.

Vaati prediction: 9%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5.

 

[jaytalks]

Cool cool.
Masked Man Chances: 10%. I don't think the Masked Man is even the best choice for a Mother Rep, as the Mother series could use one of their other playable characters (perhaps a female) for the third rep. But if they want to make another character who uses Ness or Lucas a as a basis, Masked Man would be the way to go. But I find it very doubtful Mother will get another rep over series like Donkey Kong, Fire Emblem, and Kid Icarus, especially when it already has two reps from its two major games (sorry Mother 1 fans)/

Want: 25% I loved the ending for Mother 3 (via youtube). I would have played the heck out of the game if it game to the US on the GBA. But that never came to pass. So he ranks rather low on my want list, especially since I think Mother is already rather well represented.

Vaati: 8.32%

Nominations:
I've been voting for Karate Joe recently, but I want to see Saki pull ahead of Starfy so:
Saki Amamiya x10

 

[Starcutter]

Masked Man: 5%

Want: 70%

Vaati: 10.6%

Noms:
Kamek x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Masked man: 3%
Want:7%

Vaati: 12%

Chancellor Cole

 

[Silverjay323]

Masked Man

Chance: 13.4% Honestly, Ninten and Porky are more likely

Want: 30% I was emotionally tied to Masked Man's fate at the end of Mother 3, and seeing him in Smash would almost "hurt me" so to speak. Or maybe I'm just weird.

Vaati: 22.4% Just can't see this happening really.

Nominations: Ninten x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I've been voting for Karate Joe recently, but I want to see Saki pull ahead of Starfy so:

I knew something was up with the Karate Joe nominations.

 

[nessokman]

Masked man chances:~15% He'd make an awesome moveset, making a light villain with multiple jumps. Ranged arm cannon and psi blasts, and sword smashes. His final smash could be to summon the pigmasks army! But I digress.I would be fine with losing Lucas in favor of him

Want:1,000,000,000,000% mother 3 is my all time favorite game. The most emotionally charged ending I've seen in a long time.

Vaati: 10%

Nominations:medusa X5

 

[TheDivineDeity]

Masked Man

Chances of returning: -1000% (or just 0%, as in no chance in Hell)
Wanting the return: -1000% (or just 0%, as in no chance in Hell)

The Earthbound series is complete as it is. No need for unpopular, irrelevant, and unnecessary characters (sorry, Earthbound fans)...