Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Simon: 2.5%
Want: 25%
Masked Man: 4.5%
Nominate
Ridley x 3
Lucas x 2

 

[Deleted member]

First off, although it was pretty obvious from the start, congrats to Luigi for making it in SSB4!
Simon Belmont
Prediction: 8%
There is some things going for Simon and many things working against Simon. While he is the most recognizable Belmont and has a good record of appearing on Nintendo consoles, he doesn't have that big of a chance in my eyes. He is a third party character which does indeed hurt his chances quite a bit. However, I think that Snake stands in his way. If Konami wanted to put in one of their characters again, it would most likely be Snake once again. I haven't seen anything notable in terms of support that could catch Sakurai's attention to help boost his possibilities.
Want: 20%
I don't hate him, but I don't particularly want him. However, since Pit and Mega Man are in it, there can be some weird enjoyment with him in it by having some Captain N battles.
Masked Man Prediction: 5.4%
I think that Ness and Lucas are just fine.
Nominations: Sonic 5x

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Simon Belmont:

Likelihood: 2% - Yeah... No. If any Konami rep it's just heaps easier to include Snake, not only because they can just work from his Brawl moveset and that they've been through the rights to that character once before, but because he'd also be better received, since he's a veteran and all, and Simon has a relative small fanbase.

Want: 5% - Meh, the whip would be kind of cool, but I don't think he'd make a good Smash character.

Masked Man Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
5x Ridley

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 2% - Seriously? I mean I know some people want their favorite or most nostalgic characters but I just don't see it happening. He's a 3rd party character that doesn't have a lot of support. I suppose if Sakurai went to Konami and said "I need a new Konami rep; Snake is too Sony now!" he'd have a chance. But without a personal request like Snake (and I think Sonic too) or super massive popularity like Sonic and Megaman getting in as third party is near impossible. His best bet would be a request from someone of the Castlevania staff because his popularity is not in the cards at the moment - or at all actually.

Want: 50% - I'm neutral on him to be honest. His inclusion would complete the Captain N trio and that would cool to see but that is honestly all I'd care about.

Masked Man Prediction: 32% - He's seen as Mother's most likely next character but that's not saying much.

Nominations:
Medusa x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

SIMON BELMONT:

CHANCE: 15%
First, Snake would have to leave, which is KIND of unlikely, but not impossible.
Second, Sakurai might have to consider if he should stick to Konami (or Konami contacting Sakurai, to add a Castlevania character)
Third they'd have to agree from among a whole universe of Castlevania characters.
Simon has a shot for being one if not the most popular, so his chances fare better than any other Castlevania character.
But it's all very complicated, I really doubt he has that much support.
(If Snake's not in, I definitely see Castlevania as the next in line for a Konami rep)


WANT: 100%
Why not? For starters, he's a middle-range fighter. And I LOVE this types of fighters.
2nd, he's unique. He's a freaking vampire slayer.
3rd, the atmosphere he brings with him, is a rare sight in SSB, unless we count that one Luigi's Mansion stage from Brawl. I find the tone of Castlevania series a bit similar to Metroid, so it wouldn't feel out of place (or AS out of place as Metal Gear)
And finally... Pit meets Mega Man meets Simon Belmont needs to happen for this Captain N fanboy.


Nominate
x3 Mike Jones
x2 Saki

 

[SpaceJell0]

Simon Belmont chances: 10% I highly doubt Konami will keep a spot on the roster this time around, and Simon would look out of place in the roster of Nintendoish characters

Simon Belmont want: 5% Never played Castlevania but I wouldn't like an out of place character like him in the roster over other, better contenders (and Snake fit in nicely! He at least has a personality and his look fit the art style of Brawl)

Masked Man Prediction: 15% He might not have much of a chance but his design looks cool as heck though :D

Nominations: x5 Starfy

 

[Ephecus]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 3 %
Third-Party status and another Konami-character already being in Smash really hinders him. Also a more personal point: He doesn't fit the artstyle of SSB4 in my opinion.
Want: 40 %
A whip makes an interesting weapon and his weaponsystem from Castlevania could be implemented easily into SSB4. However he would take space from Nintendo Allstars, which I'd rather have (Except if he'd remove Snake, I don't really care for Snake ).

Masked Man: 4.5 %
Another earthbound rep? I don't think so.

Nominations: Medusa x5

 

[Groose]

Simon Belmont chances: 10% I highly doubt Konami will keep a spot on the roster this time around, and Simon would look out of place in the roster of Nintendoish characters

Much like how Solid Snake is often associated with Sony, Simon is usually associated with Nintendo because of the early Castlevania games which peaked in popularity on Nintendo systems. He's less fitting than Mega Man is, but many wouldn't find him TOO strange.

 

[Starcutter]

Simon Belmont 35%

want: 67%

MM prediction: 6.7%

NOMS:
Kamek x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 5%
Want: 15%

Masked Man: 22%

Karate Joe x5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Much like how Solid Snake is often associated with Sony, Simon is usually associated with Nintendo because of the early Castlevania games which peaked in popularity on Nintendo systems. He's less fitting than Mega Man is, but many wouldn't find him TOO strange.

At the same time his games are kind of in a bad spot now so he could use some help from Nintendo. But I dunno the who owns him now does Nintendo own some rights to him? But you make a good point Groosenator

 

[Groose]

At the same time his games are kind of in a bad spot now so he could use some help from Nintendo. But I dunno the who owns him now does Nintendo own some rights to him? But you make a good point Groosenator

Konami owns him. This complicates matters, as Konami also owns veteran Solid Snake and popular third-party Bomberman.

Although there isn't any evidence either way, people are of the opinion that one is the maximum number for Konami characters.

 

[SpaceJell0]

Konami owns him. This complicates matters, as Konami also owns veteran Solid Snake and popular third-party Bomberman.

Although there isn't any evidence either way, people are of the opinion that one is the maximum number for Konami characters.

Snake's main problem is that Kojima kinda turned his back on Nintendo by not making MGSV available for Wii U so Konami's relations with Nintendo could be shaky, take that into consideration raters So....you cosplayed as Groose?

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

Simon Belmont likelihood: 5%
Simon Belmont Want: 50%

Masked Man Prediction: 20%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Simon Belmont: 5%
Already have a Konami rep, Snake.
Want: 50%
Indifferent

Masked Man-25%
Cool rep, but many would argue Mother doesn't need another rep...

 

[DukeofShorts]

Simon chances: 10%
Like I said yesterday, I didn't know who he was and I'm assuming there are other people who are like me

Simon want 40%
I didn't know who Snake was and I'm curious to know more.

Masked man prediction: 13.11%
Isn't he just an identical twin of Lucas and people don't like "clones."

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Sebz]

Simon~30%
With Metal Gear leaving Nintendo behind, I can easily see Snake leaving. Simon has the best chance after him, since Castlevania games keep coming out on handhelds, and the franchise has a looong history with thte big N.

Want~100%
Sooo much want. The moveset potential is amazing, with all his specials being derived from all types of Castlevania items and his regular attaacks involving his whip. Also: CASTLEVANIA MUSIC IN SMASH BROS

Masked Man~16%
I really don't see Mother getting another rep, but he would be pretty cool.

Noms:
Genesectx5

 

[NickerBocker]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 18%
A few things have to happen in order for this to work. If Snake doesn't get cut then he has almost no chance, as I dont think Sakurai will want more than 1 Konami character (although they have some awesome characters related to nintendo.) In the realm of Konami, you have Bomberman as well, which could be some stiff competition.

Want: 90%
This character is awesome and is one of my wanted newcomers from Konami (my most wanted is Goemon, but its not gonna happen.) The original castlevania games were some of the best and most challenging NES and SNES platformers at the time. Simon Belmont is closer to nintendo than Snake is, so lets hope it happens. Also, a male fighter with a whip that isnt barely wearing anything? Could be interesting to see a moveset.

Masked Man: 12.4%
Mother has reached saturation in SSB, and I feel it will be reflected in the score

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 0% - As cool as he is, I just don't see him making it under any circumstance. There is way to much competition for third parties.
Want: 46% - He's just an okay choice for me.

Masked Man prediction: 19%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Simon chances: 10%
Like I said yesterday, I didn't know who he was and I'm assuming there are other people who are like me

Simon want 40%
I didn't know who Snake was and I'm curious to know more.

Masked man prediction: 13.11%
Isn't he just an identical twin of Lucas and people don't like "clones."

Anthony Higgs x5

Masked Man's (SPOILER ALERT DUDE! well, not really, aka Claus) weapons and moves are different as seen in some of his boss fights

 

[PK_Wonder]

At the same time his games are kind of in a bad spot now so he could use some help from Nintendo. But I dunno the who owns him now does Nintendo own some rights to him? But you make a good point Groosenator

This is why I give Simon a solid 25% I think he is in a similar spot to Mega Man, and has a similar, rich history with the company, more than Snake ever did. I prefer Snake because I prefer the MGS series, but I think Simon is more deserving. After Sonic and Pac-Man and maybe Bayonetta and Professor Layton, he's probably the most likely third party remaining.

predict Masked Man/Claus gets a 5%

nominate Lip x5 (I don't want or care about her, but I think she'll score well)

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Simon Belmont prediction - 2%

I feel I'm being generous here. As others have said there are more obvious konami reps like snake or bomberman. Not sure he has a huge call to be in smash bros either.

Want - 5%

Not a fan of the games, he does use a whip which might be interesting but I'm still not interested in him.

Masked man - 8%

Nominations:

Chibi robo x2
Robin x2
Isaac x1

 

[Xenigma]

Simon Belmont - 0.5%

We've been told that any third party character would have be a special circumstance. Of the three known third party characters ever in Smash, one is Mario's most famous third party rival, one is possibly the biggest third party series born on Nintendo, and the third is a very famous character who got in thanks to his creator asking Sakurai personally for his inclusion. So, what about Simon? Castlevania is certainly a big series, one with a very long history with Nintendo, but would his inclusion be special enough? I don't think so. Here's what has to happen for his inclusion, nearly as I can tell:

- Snake would have to be out. Very plausible, but between his popularity and Kojima possibly lobbying for his inclusion again, its difficult to say what will happen.
- Konami would have to want a different character in Smash. Remember, Kojima is the one who asked for Snake's inclusion, not Konami. We don't know if they really care or not.
- Bomberman would have to be out. Between the two, I think it's fair to say Belmont loses out to Bomberman should they both be on the table.
- Sakurai would have to be willing to add another third party character. With Mega Man in, Sonic a highly plausible returner, and Pac-Man rumored to be in, he may not want any more.
- Nintendo would have to be okay with him content-wise. Higher-ups might take issue with Castlevania themes (vampires/zombies/etc) being in Smash via Belmont.
- Belmont would have to be the preferred Castlevania rep. There's the odd chance someone like Soma or another more modern character could appear.

All in all, it adds up to bad news for Simon. He's not so impossible to be worthy of a 0% rating, but he's awfully close, so I'm going to dip into decimals for once and give him half a percent. Not impossible, but I would be extremely surprised if it happened.

Want - 50% - I like Castlevania, and he would probably be a fun inclusion. I'm just not sure how I feel about the franchise being included over others.

Masked Man - 7.5%
I admittedly know little about the character, but I can't imagine most seeing a third Mother character as likely.

Nominations
Vaati x5

 

[Erimir]

Simon Belmont

Popularity: Well, Castlevania is not as popular as it used to be. But 2010's Lords of Shadow did very well, with the Xbox and PS3 versions combined selling over a million copies and becoming the best selling title in the series*. But Castlevania has never been a blockbuster series selling multiple millions per game (like Donkey Kong Country, for example). It's comparable to Mega Man with Mega Man 2 being the best selling with only 1.5 million in sales, but not as prolific or quite as high selling on average.

He's ranked only around 30 in the Smash boards poll. While that puts him ahead of some characters like Takamaru and it's not horrible, it's nowhere near the level of fan demand that would catch Sakurai's attention like Sonic or Mega Man did (and which is perhaps more important for 3rd parties).

*Symphony of the Night might be better selling if you incorporate re-releases and such, like on Xbox Live Arcade...

Relevancy: Simon Belmont would be getting in on the basis of his retro cred. He is an NES icon. He appeared on the NES in Castlevania, Castlevania II: Simon's Quest and on the SNES in Super Castlevania IV. He's also appeared on Nintendo consoles in Castlevania Judgment and Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate. He was notable enough to be included in the Captain N trio, although of course his physical appearance and personality there is nothing like the character from the games.

More importanty, while the Castlevania series is cross-platform, it has a strong connection to Nintendo. Castlevania has 34 console video games, and 22 have been released on Nintendo consoles. Of those, 19 have been Nintendo exclusive. Castlevania has a number of protagonists, but Simon being the original, being a whip-user and appearing in several games and mostly on Nintendo consoles would be the most natural choice for a representative.

Design: I'd assume they'd want to make his appearance more according to his simpler incarnations on the Nintendo (just like Mega Man), but with some influence from the more modern design (such as his hair color being red). He doesn't have to use the most anime'd up, gothic horror version of his appearance, particularly since Sakurai would likely want to emphasize his old school Nintendo connection.

He has great move set potential. His primary means of attack would be the whip, which would be definitely unique. The whip can attack in 8 directions and can be used as a tether recovery. There are also jump moves in some of the games which also could be used as recovery (although not used by him on the NES/SNES). He has the subweapons like the knife, axe, rebound stone and holy water which provide plenty of other options for specials. His Final Smash could take a number of forms, but a natural one would be to steal the Cross Item Crash move from Richter. He has plenty of potential and would be different from all the other characters.

Competition: Well, Snake is also from Konami. But the fact of the matter is that Snake doesn't really belong in a roster of Nintendo All-Stars. He only has 5 games on Nintendo, and 3 of them are remakes of games originally released on other platforms. And the vast majority of the sales are on other consoles. Not only that, but they continue to put Playstation as the most important console for Snake, with his newest game being a PS4 exclusive.

But Snake has already appeared, and he was included because Hideo Kojima asked for him to be. Even if Snake doesn't appear again, there's no guarantee that Konami would get any rep at all. If you ask me, for Nintendo there's really not much motivation to include Snake. How many sales did he drive for Smash Bros or the Wii? How does promoting a character who is a blockbuster and system seller for another platform help Nintendo? If you ask me, they shouldn't let Snake get in again unless there's a Nintendo exclusive (not a remake years after the original) to go with it. On the other hand, you could argue that the promotional effect is negligible either way (Smash fans are unlikely to buy Metal Gear games on the basis of his inclusion, Metal Gear fans are unlikely to buy Smash for that reason either), and Kojima's personal connection to Sakurai is enough to get him in again. Bomberman is also owned by Konami now, and also a plausible 3rd party to include (although I find his move set potential quite thin compared to Simon's).

On the promotional aspects though, Castlevania seems a better series to promote for Nintendo, as Konami will likely continue to put out Metroidvania games for Nintendo handhelds at least. If you went with a whip-user, Simon would easily be your choice, so Simon's primary Castlevania competition would be Alucard and Soma. Alucard and Soma both debuted on Nintendo consoles, but they don't use the whip, which is iconic for Castlevania. Soma is similar to Alucard in some ways, and not as iconic as Simon. So really it's mainly Alucard.

Legal issues: Like any unconfirmed 3rd party, Nintendo needs permission. Presumably with Sonic and Snake this would be easy to acquire. We don't know how easy it would be for Simon.

Simon Belmont chances: 2%
I think chances that Castlevania gets a rep are pretty low. While I think he has a strong Nintendo connection and is a very classic and iconic video game character, it's just not likely with his competition from Snake, Bomberman and other 3rd parties. If there was a Castlevania character, I think the vast majority of the time, they'd pick Simon, with Alucard being the pick the rest of the time and negligible amounts for the other possibilities.

Simon Belmont want: 100%
As I explained in detail, I think Simon has great move set potential, represents an iconic video game series and is the most fitting protagonist of that series. I think he'd be a great inclusion and that plenty of people would be happy to see him. I hadSimon's Quest as a kid, and it was one of my favorite NES games. But honestly, I like Symphony of the Night the best, and I enjoy the GBA/DS games more than any of the games starring Simon. So Alucard is my favorite Castlevania protagonist. However, Castlevania means whips, and Simon Belmont is the most iconic wielder of the whip and the most worthy for his Nintendo connection. Alucard, as a sword user, would also be less unique. If somehow Alucard was in instead though, I'd be almost as happy about it.

But I recognize that, sadly, neither character is very likely.

Masked Man prediction: 4%
I don't think many people are expecting more Earthbound reps. The series seems to be over and is sadly treated poorly by Nintendo (I really wish they'd release Mother 1 and 3 in the US). People seem to be expecting an Earthbound cut more than an Earthbound newcomer. He doesn't have the greatest support either (lower than Simon's in the poll), but I assume a few supporters will push his chances up.

Nominations:
Mike Jones x3
Lucas x2

Also, I couldn't let this day go by without posting this:

Simon Belmont want: 5% Never played Castlevania but I wouldn't like an out of place character like him in the roster over other, better contenders (and Snake fit in nicely! He at least has a personality and his look fit the art style of Brawl)

...what? Simon Belmont doesn't fit in with Nintendo, but Snake does? How the hell does that work? Fantasy/horror/mythology doesn't fit, but a spy/soldier who primarily uses guns in a realistic world does?

I'd note also that Simon Belmont and Pit actually have quite a bit of overlap in their enemies. In addition to more important things like Medusa and minotaurs, some minor enemies are very similar such as floating eyeballs and skulls and things like that.

Zoroark's Chances: 35%
The roster was decided about a year ago, right? Wasn't that exactly when Zoroark hit his peak in popularity?

I don't think that's right. They only started working on the game a year and a half ago. I couldn't find where I read or heard it, but he did say that they were done with gathering data about what the fans want a while ago. So fan requests now are pointless and they probably have decided all of the characters they might include (some of whom might not make it into the final game). If they're not on the roster of planned/strongly considered characters already, they probably have no chance of getting in. There also was a suggestion that they put an earlier deadline for themselves as to when to stop adding characters, so that they won't delay the game. Forget where I saw that as well.

My impression from interviews from around E3 is that the roster is not yet final. He definitely said that cuts are possible but also that none have been decided yet. But it's not entirely clear whether there are any new characters they're still considering whether to include nor is it clear at what point new characters lost their chance to be in.

- Bomberman would have to be out. Between the two, I think it's fair to say Belmont loses out to Bomberman should they both be on the table.

I'm not so sure that's true. Bomberman has significantly lower sales than Castlevania. He does fit the Smash Bros feel a bit better (he's more of a cute mascot character), but I think his move set would be less interesting (and have significant overlap with Snake, if he has proximity bombs, remote control bombs and timed bombs - i.e. Snake's down-smash, down-B and neutral-B). His Nintendo connection is similar, maybe a little better.

- Nintendo would have to be okay with him content-wise. Higher-ups might take issue with Castlevania themes (vampires/zombies/etc) being in Smash via Belmont.

As I pointed out above, he actually has significant overlap with Pit in terms of the types of enemies he faces. They don't need to include any gore or rotting zombies. Obviously they wouldn't have his attacks draw blood, so that's easily handled. He's certainly no more problematic than Snake - and they made the choice to shape Snake's move set around avoiding his usual guns. Simon's only problems there are perhaps the knife and his enemies. Snake and Sonic had no enemies appear in the game anyway, aside from as trophies. They have plenty of Castlevania enemies they could use for trophies that aren't problematic. So I don't think he'd have any problems on this account. His popularity, 3rd party status and competition and lack of a personal connection like Kojima are his real obstacles.

- Belmont would have to be the preferred Castlevania rep. There's the odd chance someone like Soma or another more modern character could appear.

I doubt it. Like with Mega Man, Sakurai would probably prefer the NES character. He also has better sales than other protagonists and uses the iconic Castlevania Vampire Killer whip.

 

[Sid-cada]

Simon Belmont

Chance - 0.1% - Snake basically took all of his chances away. If we were to get another Konami representative, it would be Simon, but Snake almost certainly has priority over him.

Want - 50% - Don't care, do not dislike him, just complete indifference.


Masked Man - 4.5% - Yeah, Mother's close to being fully represented, and has completion in the form of Porky Minch. He's doomed.

Nominations
Mr. Game & Watch X2
Starfy X2
Lip X1

 

[SchAlternate]

Simon Belmont
Likelihood: 20-ish% - If Snake leaves, Simon is the most likely replacement for him there is, with tons of move potential, a vast popularity and a long story with Nintendo, like Mega Man. The only thing that prevents him from being ranked any higher than 20%, though, is Snake himself. Snake pretty much has a humongous chance of returning, meaning poor ol' Simon has little to no chance of making it.
Want: 100% - Aside from Mega Man, who's already confirmed, Simon is my most wanted third-party character for Smash. At first, I didn't really cared for him, but ever since I played Castlevania IV, I just can't deny how much I want him to appear.

Masked Man
Prediction: 5% - Porky has a higher chance of appearing, and, probably because of me not playing Mother 3 (planning to, though), I myself don't think I'd be happy if he'd makes it. (BTW, THANKS INTERNET FOR ABSOLUTELY SPOILING HIS IDENTITY FOR ME, JEEZ)

Nominations
Lip (x4)
Meowth (x1)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Simon Belmont:

A lot of people are more skeptical than I am, and a lot of people see Bomberman (Dynablaster to me) as a more likely Konami candidate... but from Europe I can't see it. Dynablaster is a really obscure game where I'm from, so I dismissed it as that way elsewhere, in fact the only people I've ever heard talk about are let's players and people on gaming websites.. I guess the name confusion probably makes the difference perhaps. In comparison I've heard mention of Castlevania, references to it and seen people playing physical copies of Castlevania games far, far, far more regularly than Dynablaster or Bomberman.

I think looking at the boards I'm influenced by the bubble of culture I'm in, however I stated yesterday what I would give Simon, and I intend to stick to it until a re-vote.


Chance: 22%
Outside of competitive smash communities the reaction to snake's inclusion was mostly lukewarm, with the odd hipster heralding him as the change smash bros needed; however Nintendo fans tended to feel he didn't belong and most Sony fans thought it insulting that he didn't have any guns (seriously, why not give him a dart gun? I, and I'm sure most MGS players, prefer to use tranquilizers to kinetics anyway). I don't see his move set changing to fit Nintendo, or snake better, so outside the competitive community his inclusion will likely been uninspiring, or outright disappointing. As such Konami way wish to rectify this, and elect another character in his place, and I think the most likely character for this is Simon Belmont. He's a popular character with NES credibility who would suit the smash bros universe beautifully IMHO. So it then comes down to what I see happening on Konami's side.

I see it being pretty 50/50 if they even want to be in smash, and then another 50/50 if they stick with Snake. There is the chance they'll want someone else for smash, but other than (the in my experience more obscure) Bomberman, who wasn't even Konami to begin with, there's not much in the way of acceptable options. I give a 3% to other Konami reps, and the remaining 22% gets hitched onto Simon's perfectly formed, whip bearing, shoulders.


Want: 100%
I frikkin' love Castlevania, and think he'll fit fantastically in brawl. Heck, a Dracula's castle stage, and that music, would all fit in brawl. He's got great move setpotential and a whip based character would be awesome for a defensive, distance keeping, game play style.



Masked Man: 4.5%
I love Mother 3, I love the masked man, I love Strong One, but I think Lucas is enough for the game's representation.


Slime*5
(I need to start predicting these plop-erly!)

 

[Sebz]

Already chimed in with my predictions,but I gotta drop this to get everyone into the right vampire hunting mood:

 

[Yams]

Simon Belmont
Likelihood: 8% I'm pretty sure there won't be 2 Konami reps, and if Snake were to leave I'd think Bomberman would be next in line.
Want: 5% Never really cared for the character.

Masked Man: 10%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Simon Belmont

Likelihood: 5% - Can't really see it happening right now. We alredy have Snake to represent Konami, and I don't think it's very likely for him to be replaced by Simon

Want: 10% - No thanks

Masked Man Prediction: 7%

Nominations:
Primid x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 1%. He is a somewhat iconic character from the NES days, but unlike Mega Man the fame and fan desire is just not as great, and Konami already has Snake, who is himself possibly not coming back. Also, I feel people overestimate the chances of third parties. Sakurai stated just how massively special a character has to be if they're from another company, and really, the only one that surpasses Mega Man and Sonic both in terms of icon status is Pac Man.

Want: 0%. Never cared for Castlevania, and even the ones I did play and were interesting for a couple minutes didn't feature him. Maybe the character is actually cool, but I just don't know enough about him and what I hear or read isn't enough to make me care.

Masked Man Prediction:
8.5% - Some will rate him highly as the "most likely Mother rep if there is one", but most will fall under the belief that either Mother won't get a new rep, or (my case) that if it does get a new rep it should be Porky. On that note ...

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Already chimed in with my predictions,but I gotta drop this to get everyone into the right vampire hunting mood:

This makes me want Simon (and a Castlevania stage) in the game even more; and I gave him 100% want!!

 

[Primid]

Simon Belmont:

Likelihood: 5% Not very likely with Snake as the Konami rep. If Snake is cut, Bomberman and Simon would have to duke it out for that spot, and Bomberman would probably come out on top.
Want: 10% I've never played Castlevania, but his potential moveset makes him seem like he'd be a good Smash fighter. I just wouldn't want him to get in over some other, more obvious choices.

Masked Man prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Ghirahim x3
Chibi-Robo x2

 

[Gam3rALO]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 5%
Im not really sure who he is but.... He is third party and in the same company as Snake. Snake would easily be returning if Sakurai want a Konami rep.

Want: 1%
Haven't heard of him much and he doesn't seem interesting.
Snake should return!

Prediction for Masked Man: 24.44%

Nominations:
Sylveon x5

 

[jaytalks]

Simon Belmont chances: 15% If they decided to go with a retro feel for the game, Simon Belmont would fit a great deal better than Snake. In fact, in terms of Nintendo history, Simon Belmont has a much stronger connection to Nintendo than Snake. There isn't a cap on Konami characters, but I don't think Sakurai would show any perceived favoritism to one third party. However, he does have a better chance than most other third parties. If the appearances from Brawl turn out to be one time deals, I see that as slightly increasing his chances. The Castlevania series has always had a strong connection to Nintendo, while the Metal Gear series has not really had that strong of Nintendo presence in comparison to its connection with Sony.

Want:100%. I think he fits very well with the game, and I think his addition could fit well with other retro adds. Having Mario, Mega Man, Link, and Simon Belmont would be a dream come true for NES fans. And I really think Castlevania has had a strong connection with Nintendo consoles. I would prefer him over Snake.

Masked Man predictions: 5.67%
Nominations: Karate Joe x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Simon Belmon chances: 20%. If he were a Nintendo character, he would probably already be in Melee or Brawl, but despite being a popular character I don't feel he's notable enough for a third party appearance. Maybe in one or two games.

Want: 70%. I never played Castlevania much but I think he could make an interesting fighter.

Masked Man prediction: 10%.

Skull Kid X5

 

[Erimir]

Simon Belmont music section update!

Groose, I went to look at it, and I am disappoint. First of all, the song you listed as titled "Castlevania" is actually called "Vampire Killer". Secondly, no Castlevania music section can be complete without Bloody Tears, one of the most awesome video game tracks out there, and one of the most recurring in Castlevania. It made its debut in Simon's Quest, so it's also fitting.

Bloody Tears original version appearing in Castlevania II: Simon's Quest - Groose, you need to add this to the first post. Perhaps replacing Dracula Battle, which does not seem particularly standout as far as Castlevania music. The rest of these are just for fun, but this one really does need to be there. This poll of Western gamers gives it as the 3rd best video game track of all time http://www.hardcoregaming101.net/vgm/bestvgm2011.htm

Bloody Tears hard rock version performed on Perfect Selection: Dracula Battle (PS:DB), an official Castlevania music album of hard rock covers.
Bloody Hell - Blood Tears rock version from OC Remix, performed by Ailsean and Kaijin
Bloody Tears piano cover from some guy on YouTube

Theme of Simon from Perfect Selection: Dracula Battle II, truly kick-ass version

Vampire Killer rock version also performed on PS:DB

Wicked Child from Castlevania (the first one)
Wicked Orchestra - great remix from Scott Peeples

The Silence of Daylight town theme from Simon's Quest
Which I partly included just so I could link this remix by Digimatic: Simon's Town

Praying Hands from Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge for the Game Boy. Does not star Simon, and I've never played the game, but it's an impressively good Game Boy track
Ripe Seeds from Belmont's Revenge as well, plus it has a version on PS:DB

Also, the Symphony of the Night soundtrack by Michiru Yamane is just generally awesome, but that stars Alucard and is on the Playstation, so I won't link to Dracula's Castle, Tragic Prince or Wandering Ghosts or whatever.

This concludes way more information and links than anyone wanted about Castlevania music.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Simon Belmont
Likelihood: 6% Despite the fact that he's a popular character, he's still 3rd party. He's a very unlikely addition.
Want: 10% I've never played Castlevania, but he seems somewhat interesting. Ehh...but not enough to make me want him in Smash.

Masked Man: 10%

Nominations:
Since Masked Man's up next, I guess I'll do Lucas x5

 

[Forde]

Simon Belmont

Chances: 5%

Want 30% I do enjoy the castlevania games, especially Portrait of Ruin. I don't mind Simon being in, but I feel that there are better 3rd and 1st party characters that could get in.

Masked Man Prediction: 10%

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Groose]

I'd note also that Simon Belmont and Pit actually have quite a bit of overlap in their enemies. In addition to more important things like Medusa and minotaurs, some minor enemies are very similar such as floating eyeballs and skulls and things like that.

I never thought about it, but I do see the overlap there. Too bad a Brawl-like adventure mode is out of the question... a Pit and Simon team up against Medusa would have been pretty epic.

Already chimed in with my predictions,but I gotta drop this to get everyone into the right vampire hunting mood:

Added to the music section.

Simon Belmont music section update!

Groose, I went to look at it, and I am disappoint. First of all, the song you listed as titled "Castlevania" is actually called "Vampire Killer". Secondly, no Castlevania music section can be complete without Bloody Tears, one of the most awesome video game tracks out there, and one of the most recurring in Castlevania. It made its debut in Simon's Quest, so it's also fitting.

Bloody Tears original version appearing in Castlevania II: Simon's Quest - Groose, you need to add this to the first post. Perhaps replacing Dracula Battle, which does not seem particularly standout as far as Castlevania music. The rest of these are just for fun, but this one really does need to be there. This poll of Western gamers gives it as the 3rd best video game track of all time http://www.hardcoregaming101.net/vgm/bestvgm2011.htm

Bloody Tears hard rock version performed on Perfect Selection: Dracula Battle (PS:DB), an official Castlevania music album of hard rock covers.
Bloody Hell - Blood Tears rock version from OC Remix, performed by Ailsean and Kaijin
Bloody Tears piano cover from some guy on YouTube

Theme of Simon from Perfect Selection: Dracula Battle II, truly kick-*** version

Vampire Killer rock version also performed on PS:DB

Wicked Child from Castlevania (the first one)
Wicked Orchestra - great remix from Scott Peeples

The Silence of Daylight town theme from Simon's Quest
Which I partly included just so I could link this remix by Digimatic: Simon's Town

Praying Hands from Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge for the Game Boy. Does not star Simon, and I've never played the game, but it's an impressively good Game Boy track
Ripe Seeds from Belmont's Revenge as well, plus it has a version on PS:DB

Also, the Symphony of the Night soundtrack by Michiru Yamane is just generally awesome, but that stars Alucard and is on the Playstation, so I won't link to Dracula's Castle, Tragic Prince or Wandering Ghosts or whatever.

This concludes way more information and links than anyone wanted about Castlevania music.

In my defense, Castlevania was never my forte, and the ones I've played were the GBA/DS ones. I didn't want to include too much music from there, as Simon wasn't featured.

But hey, I'm open to suggestions, and I'm currently updating the OP with your suggestions.

EDIT: I incorporated at least one version of all of the music you listed. I thank you for making our archives grow and increasing my own mental database of music .

If I ever get around to making that "Special Thanks" spoiler tag on the OP like I've been meaning to, you're definitely going straight to the top of the list.

Simon Belmont:

A lot of people are more skeptical than I am, and a lot of people see Bomberman (Dynablaster to me) as a more likely Konami candidate... but from Europe I can't see it. Dynablaster is a really obscure game where I'm from, so I dismissed it as that way elsewhere, in fact the only people I've ever heard talk about are let's players and people on gaming websites.. I guess the name confusion probably makes the difference perhaps. In comparison I've heard mention of Castlevania, references to it and seen people playing physical copies of Castlevania games far, far, far more regularly than Dynablaster or Bomberman.

I think looking at the boards I'm influenced by the bubble of culture I'm in, however I stated yesterday what I would give Simon, and I intend to stick to it until a re-vote.

It's very interesting to hear how (un)popular Bomberman is in Europe. You kind of forget that this community spans the world; different areas of the community bring different things to the table. Even so, one region may not break a character. We've seen the likes of Lucas and the Fire Emblem characters.

I came onto the gaming scene during the N64 era, and I personally haven't ever played any of his games. Yes, I'm aware his games were big on the N64; even so, I just never picked one up. I remember seeing him in Nintendo Power and the like occasionally up until like the end of the Gamecube era, but I seem to recall that most of his games were remakes.

On the other hand, I've always seen and heard from Castlevania. It's always been in the spotlight. I played the GBA/DS games, but it was never my favorite series.

Eh, but I digress. I'll do my rating before I update the day per the usual.