Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Al-kīmiyā']

Lip chance=5%

Lip want=2%

Roy chance=10%

Roy want=1%

Layton prediction=5%

 

[wildvine47]

Lip

Likelihood: 12% - That extra 2% is for the myriad of references and nods she already has in-game. I see her being an assist trophy at best, but hey, it is Sakurai we're talking about here.

Want: 10% - Never been a favorite of mine, only reason I'd want her is so the aforementioned references have a character to refer to.

Roy

Likelihood: 67% - Yep, I can say this with a straight face. Roy has absolutely ridiculous amounts of fan support, being the #2 most wanted character in Japan, only trailing his Melee cut brother Mewtwo, whom most believe is all but confirmed at this point. Add this to the fact that he was just as far along development-wise as Mewtwo was for Brawl in the Forbidden 7, clearly indicating that if a certain blue hedgehog hadn't caused a delay that they both would've made the roster. Then, add that to the fact that Sakurai has stated that the two veterans he regrets cutting are Mewtwo and Roy, toss in a little bit of relevancy with Roy's DLC for Awakening being released alongside Marth and Ike, his fellow Smash lords, that he and Ike have a DLC versus mission in Awakening named Smash Bretheren, and cherry-on-top it all with him being confirmed for SMT x FE, and you've got one hell of a likely re-addition with a laundry list of positives, and very few negatives, something the Awakening reps all struggle with. Chrom has his generic-ness and lack of basically any support, Lucina (while she may have the popularity that being a FE waifu brings) is doomed to be more of a Marth clone than Roy was, due to any distinguishing features and the fact that she literally cosplays as Marth for about half the game, and Robin suffers from a severe case of not-a-lord-itis.

Want: 92% - While he's not part of my Platinum 100% Trio of Ridley, K. Rool and Goroh, he sits comfortably in the gold section with Mewtwo, Little Mac, Palutena, and others.

Layton Prediction: 13% - Sure he may enjoy a buddy-buddy relationship with Nintendo as of late, but his third party status leaves him in the dust compared to the far more important and more likely others in the category, like Sonic, Snake, and Pac-Man. Were he first party (and I cannot help but believe he eventually will be at some point in the future), rest assured he'd be a shoe-in.

Nominations
Adam Malkovich x 5

 

[jaytalks]

Lip's Likelihood: Uniqueness: She is very unique.​

Does the character's inclusion make people want to buy the game? Yes, but more so in Japan​

Balance and Fit: Her weapon is already in Smash. She would fit into Smash quite well.​

The Word of Sakurai: On Lip and Panel de Pon: "But personally, I think Panel De Pon is a great masterpiece. If only the people who don't know her would give her a chance."​

Lip would be a great retro add. Her game is unique. Sakurai appears to like her. Elements from her game have made an appearance in Smash. Her series is also a great nintendo staple and would be a great representation of puzzle games.​

But I'm not too sure she is a retro character. She feels like a retro character. But the ongoing nature of the Puzzle League series as well as her having a sequel with the Nintendo Puzzle Collection puts that into question. But I think smash would revive her character in the same way as a retro character. Her series has gotten OK inclusion in the past, with the Lip's Stick as an item since Melee. It has been spoken upon favorable by Sakurai. But the series as Panel de Pon has had no instances where it was released as Panel de Pon (with Lip) in the west. She got replaced by Yoshi in one game and taken out entirely in another. However, she is helped by the releases of the Puzzle League series world wide, unlike other forgotten franchises.So her Japan only status hurts her. Other characters have overcome it, it just depends if her other factors outweigh her negatives, like any other character. So:​

Lip: 25%: In terms of an FE attack, it's not the kind you like to make. It's one you shouldn't make unless you absolute need to and you are somehow guarded. You might need to be prepared to strike a few times with this one.​

Want: 100%: Great character. Great franchise. Really unique. Can represent puzzle games. What's not to like. I expect her to get a full Pit like redesign with her addition.​

Roy Rerate: He's already made into one game, so he has all the factors going for him technically.​

Word of Sakurai: He picked Roy over Leaf and his fire properties made him stand out. So he has an advantage over any FE characters between Leaf and Marth. But there's the fact he said We Don't Have Time to Bring All Characters Back to Smash Bros.​

Roy is where the power of popularity is tested. Well, Ridley also tests the power of popularity. He ranks second in cut returning veterans according to the shortie poll, and well amongst other characters who have yet to appear. But that is all he has going for him at this point. He was released in Japan Only title, the last title in the FE series before the series was released internationally. His game was released in 2002. A full decade ago. Since then, he has had one cameo in his game's prequel and no main appearances.​

I can't see Roy replacing Ike. Replacing Ike would just repeat the cycle of a cut FE veteran; adding another cut veteran in the place of the veteran you are getting rid of would not make any sense. Especially if it was due to fan demand. Ike would get the same type of fan demand in the next game, as he is currently ranked as one of the most played characters. Roy has had the same character design and release factors, but Ike made it into the game while Roy was cut. Other FE newcomers would not suffer from this cycle because they aren't a returning cut veteran. Ike would still be demanded but his successor would not have beat him out due to fans demanding a return.​

Villager being in Smash 4 does not help his chances as well. I think there's a difference between bringing back an unfinished design who didn't make it past the planning stages, and a cut veteran who already made it into one installment. And his popularity's effect depends on what you think the power of popularity can do. I don't know how Sakurai can measure who is the most popular. So I figure he just knows which characters are popular and in demand and which character aren't. As I've said multiple times, popularity just gets you to the door. Your other factors have to get you in the game (or vice versa). And if this week showed us anything...​

For Roy, it wasn't enough last time, and with no new main appearances, I have doubts it would work now, so:​

Roy's Rerate: 15% In terms of an FE attack, I would not take this attack. If an opponent came at with this type of attack and hit me, I would know it's because I planned everything out wrong. In terms of this, that would mean I gave too little weight to popularity.​

Roy's Rewant: 10% I would not mind him as DLC, because he's exactly the type of character DLC's made for. But there is a whole list of FE newcomers I would like to see before him.​

Layton Prediction: 16.11% Lots of lows and highs. Layton's big test is if he is an icon with a Nintendo history. Your rating will depend on your stance for that, as well as Sonic's, Snake's, and Pac-Man's chances.​

Nominations:​

Dixie Kong x5​

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Lip

Chance: 32% - Sakurai has dropped a lot of references of her and her series in the games, so he's obviously interested in her.

Want: 80% - Why not? She'd be very interesting and seems like the type character Sakurai would give a Pit-style redesign to.

Roy

Chance: 60% - He's veteran with Japanese popularity. I'd say he's got an above average chance

Want: 65% - I've got nothing against him, and I'm sure he could bring something back from his hiatus.

Professor Layton Prediction: 9% - People are starting to become wiser about the harsh 3rd Party character barrier.

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Two people I want in the game for once? WHOOOOA.

Lip
Chance: 30%
Maybe I'm optimistic for Lip, but her weapon's been appearing since Melee. For old school choices a lot of people have already made their mind up that Takamaru and/or Mach Rider will appear but I'm hoping Lip has more of a chance so that we don't have another blue haired swordsman(which is kind of a shaky grounds) and/or the spiritual predecessor to F Zero. Also because that's a bit too predictable.
Lip reps a franchise that Sakurai himself has praised, but the same can be said for Mach Rider which puts her in a slightly awkward position.
That being said I don't think I've given many newcomers a chance greater than 33%, so at least by my shaky standards Lip seems like she has a lot going for her.

Want: 70%
A female protagonist from a puzzle game? That's kinda cool. A female protagonist from a puzzle game who can make BLOCKS fall and crush her enemies? Now we're talking!

Roy
Chance: 75%
Roy's got huge amounts of popularity on his side, was planned for Brawl(one of the few universal complaints about Brawl was his and Mewtwo's removal) and should have been in Brawl in the first damn place. Roy's visually striking compared to the other popular Fire Emblem lords with swords, with the exception of Lyn, who is behind Roy in terms of popularity. IS has stated interest in remaking Roy's game so that it can have a proper international release, and let us not forget Roy was one of the two characters who got the majority of us westerners excited for Fire Emblem in the first place.
On the downside for Roy, he now has to compete with a slew of Awakening characters; Chrom, Lucina and Robin, but compared to all but Robin he at least stands out a little more visually.

If there were four places Roy would basically be assured. As popular as Awakening is, you're out of your mind if you think 2/4 characters would be from there. However, as four is highly unlikely(mostly due to Roy missing out on Brawl. I'm sure we'd be less concerned about Roster space if there was three FE characters last time) only time is going to tell if Roy makes it in. If there was DLC; Roy's chance would shoot up to 99%, as a Melee pack would be very likely.

Want: 100%
Rarely do I want a character as much as I want Roy.
I can assure you when I unlocked Marth I wasn't thinking "wow this guy looks interesting and cool, I can't wait to learn more about his series". No. Only when the less girly bishie looking Roy came along and used a ton of fire did I think that. Not knowing much about the series at the time, it struck me as odd that the series would be called Fire Emblem, yet Roy who was apparently not the main character was the one with any actual fire.
Point is Roy is just as responsible for getting people introduced to and psyched about Fire Emblem in the first place.

People tend to put him down by coming up with BS excuses like "he was a crappy clone". Guess what? Roy has so much potential to not be a crappy clone. He has projectile fire balls in his own game, and his sword can heal him. He could use fire to control the field more (think like Ness and Lucas' PK fire effects)...pretty much anything! Fire is flexible after all!

Roy won't replace Ike. Don't get your pants in a twist. Hell, I LIKE Ike, but why can't we have both? I'd personally prefer someone who wasn't based on the other two fire emblem characters from Brawl, as that seems redundant, but that's down to personal taste and I can understand why people would want their Awakening Rep in.

Proffessor Layton: Giving the puzzle master a 12%
If only he was first party!

Nominations:
X 5 Meowth

 

[Opossum]

Lip time!

Likelihood: 15%
I can see it, although I'll admit Takamaru's likelier as a retro character.

Want: 80%
She'd be cool.


And...Roy time again!

Likelihood: 65%
I find Chrom a bit more likely nowadays, but he's still got a fair shot.

Want: 90%
He is our boy, after all. Plus, vets are a plus.

Predicting a 19% for Layton

Nominating Falco x5

 

[djgeiger0620]

Lip

Chance - 5%

Want - 0% Sorry, would much rather have other characters.


Roy

Chance - 85%

Want - 50% - Since Roy was a Marth clone, and I'm not much for clones, I'm fairly indifferent. I'd rather have other FE characters that would have more of a different fighting style. This would never happen, but come on, wouldn't Hector be freaking awesome?! Brandishing his huge axe, sporting his awesome armor... Okay, okay, I'll get out of my fantasyland now.


Layton - I'm thinking 7%


Lloyd Irving x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lip:

Likelihood: 5%

Want: 5%

Roy:

Likelihood: 25%

Want: 50%

Layton Prediction: 8%

Nominations:
5x Falco

 

[djgeiger0620]

Okay... for those of you saying, "Oh, Skull Kid? Eh, didn't like him. But TINGLE! HE'S SO COOL!"

Short freaky little guy who wears green spandex (and holy crap, why spandex?! Why not something that, you know, "fits your body type" Tingle? WHY?!), and doesn't understand the concept that underwear goes UNDER the pants... not over.

He thinks he's a forest fairy, speaks about himself in third person, and comes up with his own magic words.

But hey, at least he's got a job! .....Working for his dad... in his mid 30's because he doesn't actually want to grow up and get a real job.


Um... Yes, much cooler than Skull Kid... Much cooler. Seriously though, I'm just giving the Tingle lovers a hard time.

 

[papagenos]

Lip
Likelihood: 15%

She has a chance though she is one of those shot in the dark characters... sakurai likes giving us those kind of characters but predicting WHO those will be is really difficult. Her game has been referenced in items and as kirbys rock transformation and sakurai likes her game series so she has that going for her... but she's in a pool of like 20 random characters sakurai has feigned interest in that he MIGHT give us as a curve ball character or a retro throw back... it's too hard to predict her chances so i'm not giving her much % though if she makes it in the game when I look back i'd say she had closer to like 45% chance because of the references and stuff but that would be with hindsight, at this point shes staying low on my list of likelihood because of her randomness and how many other "randoms" could take that spot.

Want: 85%

Tetris attack/pokemon puzzle league etc... is one of my all time favorite games and although i've never played the Japanese version with lip I love the series SO much that knowing she reps that game would make her an awesome character imo. I'd even go so far as to possibly main her since i'm waiting for a game that i feel a personal connection to (i've mained kirby since 64 but only cause i liked how he plays). basically i love zelda games but so does everyone else i know so link doesnt strike me as a "personal" character from a game I could claim as one i personally felt attached to. little mac if he gets in would have that quality since punch-out!! was an NES game i loved and was better then all my friends at, tetris attack was also like that so Lip would have that personal connection and for that reason it'd be awesome to have her playable. also a good moveset potential and rep for puzzle games which have no one else right now so it'd be cool to get her to fill that spot.

Roy
Likelihood: 75%

He's highly asked for especially among the Japanese community.

Want: 30%

he's cool. I don't mind him. my issue is that FE could be getting 4-5 reps if he returns AND we get a new rep and that just isn't what FE deserves imo especially considering all the other franchises that could get reps with that spot open. IF he's in we better just get marth,ike,roy to satisfy smash fans and leave FE fans with no new rep. if he gets in AND a new rep like chrom/luccina then i'd rather have Ike cut...but then guess what? in smash 5 Ike is the new "roy" everyone wants back and we once again have the issue of whoever the "flavor of the week" FE lord at the time trying to get in AND satisfying smash fans who want their old character back.

Basically if you want roy back I hope your willing to either cut Ike or not get a new FE rep... personally i'd rather see either all of the FE reps we've had make it in with no one new (marth,ike,roy) OR leave roy out, he's been cut, deal with it. and get marth, ike, some new FE rep.

Layton: 10%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

A chance to listen to Panel de Pon music while I'm writing a post; whoop!

Lip:
So, we're finally here. My apologies for any Puyo Puyo bias I display, but I do love that game, play a lot on Wi-Fi, and would totally play competitively if there were tournaments I could afford to get to. That said, PdP is a great game too, not as well balanced for comebacks, slower, less exciting, and less tactical... but it's hard to beat the best. The story is the standard fair, but as a Puyo fan I'm not too worried about it, as long as there's some cooky dialogue to put a smile on my face, which Puyo does better, but PdP's okay.

Ultimately PdP an attempt to make a contender for Puyo, and it was admirable, they made a good game, but the characters didn't have the memorability of the Madou Monogatari bunch, nor did the game hit the nail quite so squarely on the head.


Chance: 11%
The reasons I see for her inclusion as a playable character are mostly based around Arle Nadja, and let's be fair her chances are small. If Sega mentions thinking about her in Smash (probably flippantly, and even then unlikely), then I can see Sakurai feeling Lip needs player status so Arle could potentially come in in smash 5... but Japanese companies aren't well known for that sort of planning the next while making the current attitude (why do you think the finnish Nokia pushed the mobile phone industry for so long?).. Sakurai works differently, but I'm not sure enough, and that's assuming he thinks Arle's worth a slot, and that he's even thought about her, or thinks Lip needs to be in if Arle is. A list of negatives this big makes my rating seems a little high, but there are positives.
Sakurai likes Lip, and has said he wants more people to give her games a shot, so there is a small chance he'll add her anyway, however small said chance is. And if he believes there needs to be a puzzle game rep then she is one of the most likely choices (I don't think Yoshi counts for Yoshi cookie, and the other big chance is Dr Mario). That said, I think the likelyhood of these possibilities on their own are lower than Arle Nadja based ideas, which says a lot given how the Sonic team don't seem to know what to do with the Puyo franchise (after some great games no less; which is a shame).

Want: 48%
I can't quite give her the 50, because the main reason I'd like her in is to give Arle a (miniscule) chance, but she has her own assets, like the aforementioned music.. That said she doesn't have as much to base her moveset on as Arle with her Madou games under her belt. I'd like to see how she's done, and perhaps it could call for a revival of her place in the franchise (and a potential new Puyo game to compete), but I doubt it. Still a stage full of that music would be awesome.



Roy:
So this time has come again too. My opinions of the boy have changed since last time, but my opinions of his chances have not.

Chance: 12%
No change on last time, I still think his inclusion in the release roster would be dumb given the work to open the Smash series up to newer players with Brawl. He's old hat, and really only has one game to his belt; but he'd make a great DLC character to appease melee fans.

Want: 15%
Not so negative this time, I've become more interested in the potential play style, assuming of course he's retooled with a ranged fire attack. It'd be cool, but it's not enough to make me want him above Chrom/Lucina in the initial release. Still, him as a DLC character would be pretty cool.


Layton: 14%
He's not gonna score highly, but I think the variety of scores will balance out to higher than most are expecting..



Slime*5
(Puyo? More like Goo-yo! Slime the best low level enemy!)

 

[Erimir]

So, I was moving to a different apartment, hence my absence. It's late, so I'm not going to put a lot of effort into this.

Upon my return, I give you this for the Simon Belmont music section:
A massive 80 minute Castlevania medley of arrangements, featuring songs from every game in the series (some games get more than one song). Includes all of the songs currently included (Simon's Theme, Bloody Tears, Vampire Killer, Wicked Child, The Silence of Daylight, Praying Hands). Even includes the cartoony Kid Dracula spin-off games.

Anyway... I didn't do Porky or Skull Kid, but the short version is that I would've given Porky around 1% and Skull Kid less than 1%.

Lip

Popularity: She's not super popular in Japan, and she's basically unknown in the West. The Smash fans on here who comb Nintendo's history for obscure characters that are plausible additions are not representative.

Relevancy: A couple games a long time ago. But she has an item.

Design: Eh, can't be bothered to look into this. She's from a puzzle game and she has a wand.

Lip chances: 3%
She has some chance as a notable retro rep, but there are some better choices out there, and she'd be another Japan exclusive character that really isn't as interesting as Fire Emblem (altho obviously FE is no longer Japan exclusive) or Lucas.

Lip want: 10%
So much meh.

Roy chances: 43%
Don't feel like checking my old numbers and recalibrating my FE scores right now. I'm pretty sure I gave him around this amount before. My feeling is that Roy is the most likely FE character, followed by Chrom, then Lucina, Lyn and Robin. He's highly wanted in both the West and Japan.

Roy want: 35%
Don't remember what I gave him before. Anyway, no FE character gets that much want from me, but I'd rather see Roy return than get Chrom.

Prof Layton prediction: 14%

Nominations:
5x Mike Jones

 

[YoshiandToad]

...and holy crap, why spandex?! Why not something that, you know, "fits your body type" Tingle? WHY?!

Not that I particularly disagree on the rest of your post but I have to ask:

What fits better on anyone's body than spandex? It's form fitting!

 

[Deleted member]

Lip ~ 1%
Want: 70%

Roy ~ 70%

Want: 100%

Much more to say later.

 

[FalKoopa]

Okay... for those of you saying, "Oh, Skull Kid? Eh, didn't like him. But TINGLE! HE'S SO COOL!"

Short freaky little guy who wears green spandex (and holy crap, why spandex?! Why not something that, you know, "fits your body type" Tingle? WHY?!), and doesn't understand the concept that underwear goes UNDER the pants... not over.

He thinks he's a forest fairy, speaks about himself in third person, and comes up with his own magic words.

But hey, at least he's got a job! .....Working for his dad... in his mid 30's because he doesn't actually want to grow up and get a real job.


Um... Yes, much cooler than Skull Kid... Much cooler. Seriously though, I'm just giving the Tingle lovers a hard time.

I'm inclined to treat this post as spam, dear good sir.

 

[Ephecus]

Lip

Chance: 2 %
She's pretty obscure and I see her much more fitting as an assist trophy.

Want: 15 %
I just don't know what her moveset could be apart from using her Stick.

Roy

Chance: 50%
High demand but also great competition. It's between him, an Awakening rep, him and Ike and I don't think Brawl will have more than 3 FE-roster spots.

Want: 45%
Kinda generic. His flamesword was nice, but even luigified I don't think he will be as interesting as a character with a completely different moveset.

Layton Prediction: 13 %

Nominations: 5x Mr. Game and Watch

 

[SmashShadow]

Lip: 8%
She's just pretty obscure as well as her main weapon being in brawl already...

Want: 30% meh

Roy: 28%

Want: 85%

Layton: 10%

5x Impa

 

[Diddy Kong]

Lip:

Chance: 30%
If Sakurai is gonna add her in the series, now is the time. She'd be a good character to add from a Japanese only series that would be well received internationally. So that is definitely a good factor for her. Lip's Stick could be turned into her moveset, and cease to excist as an item after all.

Want: 40%
She's a nice addition, I guess. Lip's Stick alone got me quite hyped for the character's playstyle, and I easily think she's the best choice for a Japan-exclusive character that isn't from Fire Emblem (MUH SIGURD) or Takamaru. Though, for new series I prefer Isaac. And if she somehow counts for a retro addition, Mach Rider and the earlier mentoined Takamaru. If she's not a retro, add 20% to her want.

Roy :

Chance: 45%
A great contender for a 3rd Fire Emblem spot for sure. However, with Awakening's succes and the series officially being more recognised as one of Nintendo's bigger series globally, it seems sort of conflicting adding Roy. He's heavily wanted though. But Ike and most likely Chrom take priority over him.

Want: 69%
Still the sexiest possible addition to the Fire Emblem roster without gasping at straws. He's my choice for 3rd character, granted if Ike makes it back. Cool moveset potential with the Sword of Seals, which would make his inclusion more justied than 'just another sworduser' /'ANOTHER blue haired swordsman from Fire Emblem!?!?!?'. Only characters I want from Fire Emblem aren't too likely anyway. Which are: Ephraim, Sigurd, Hector and the slightly more likely Lyn.

Impa x 5

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

Lip chances: 1%
Want: 5%

Roy chances: 15%
Want: 30%

Layton: 12%

Nominations: Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Lip
Chance: 12.5%
She is a contender for a spot, but the reason she doesnt get as high is because she is fairly obscure. If there is a japanese only character this time around, she has a shot. She gets most of her chance because her lip stick has been in the last 2 games, so Sakurai knows about her
Want: 10%
Takamaru is a better japanese only character IMO.

Roy
Chance: 40%
I sort of think his time gas come and gone, but he is a veteran none the less. If FE gets 2 slots, its not going to be Roy. If FE gets 3 slots, he'll be in contention with Chrom, Lucina, etc. He is a veteran so that may help his chances.
Want: 30%
I would like to see other parts of FE represented, like a magic character, but I wouldnt be upset if he came back.

Layton: 17.4%

Noms:
Rayman x5

 

[SuperBrawler]

Lip

Chance 28%
Sakurai has dropped some references, but I would rather have Takamaru.

Want 30%
It would be pretty cool though

Roy

Chance 48% he's already been in Smash, but he has to compete against other FE reps

Want 100% Roy is my Boy, I'd also like to see Chrom though.

Layton prediction

13%

Noms
Meowthx5

 

[Deleted member]

Don't really have time to say much, but...

Lip:
+ Sakurai has mentioned Lip as a "masterpiece"
- Obscure and Japan-only. Seemsto be deliberately Japan-only on top of that.
- Mach Rider and Takamaru are much stronger competitions.

Changing my likelihood vote to 15% as I feel I was a bit unfair on her.

Roy:
+ Among the Top 5 most wanted characters in the West.
+ One of two of the most wanted characters in Japan alongside Mewtwo. Even Mega Man's demand there pales in comparison.
+ Sakurai has a tendency to return to previous characters he had to cut/rejected. If Villager could get in despite being rejected before, then Roy who was planned for Brawl and was in Melee certainly has a shot.
+ Roy is almost certainly going to be planned for this game. Virtually guarantee if Fire Emblem gets four slots (which honestly isn't all that unlikely).
- Almost certainly low priority. Wont return if there's a Brawl cut due to time constraints.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Lip chance - 20%

I could see her as a retro/wtf addition to the roster but I don't think her chances are that great.

Lip want - 65%

She looks interesting and it would be nice to see her.

Roy - 35%

I think there's too much fire emblem competition for roy to make it. He's still a smash veteran though, so that must count for something.

Want - 5%

Don't care much for him. I would rather have robin or anna.

Layton prediction - 2%

Mostly <1% predictions with one or two overly optimistic ones.


Noms-
Shulk x3
Isaac x2

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Lip

Likelihood: 14% - Sakurai said Panel de Pon was a masterpiece, and even though he said she's to obscure to show up, he has changed his mid before, so why not about her?

Want: 80% - Would be a very unique and interesting addition

Roy

Likelihood: 40% - Honestly, I think Chrom is much more likely to join SSB4 than Roy

Want: 60% - I used to enjoy playing as him in Melee

Layton Prediction: 6,8%

Nominations:
Primid x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Roy - 50%

I think that will be how people will predict...it'll split down the middle. Personally I feel there's so much fire emblem competition I wouldn't put much stock in his chances

You do realise that todays the day you vote on both Roy and Lip, right? Tomorrow is Layton. Renominated characters get voted for at the same time as a newly nominated character in order to not waste days.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Lip
Likelihood: 18% - Not too sure about her chances but it can't be too bad.
Want: 35% - I can't say I particularly want her, mainly because I'm not familiar with her games. However, I think she could add something interesting to Smash. Also, her song in Brawl is definitely one of my favorite tracks in the game. I'd have no objection if she made it in.

Roy
Likelihood: 24% - I honestly don't think it's happening despite how popular he is. He has a lot of competition too.
Want: 40% - Meh. I liked Roy better than Marth in Melee, but I'd rather just have Ike stay as he's definitely my favorite of the Smash FE characters so far. I'd be more open to Roy returning if he was de-cloned, but if he were to return again as a clone, I don't really want him back.

Layton: 9%

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Lip likelihood: 15%. I don't see it happening tbh
Want:20%. Why do you people keep nominating characters I know nothing about

**** you all

Seriously though, from what I've heard she could be a somewhat interesting character, but lack of familiarity with her makes me not too fussed about it

Roy chances: 40%. he's a Fire Emblem character. not to say anything against the series, but his inclusion would feel like he's taking the spotlight from more deserving characters - Fire Emblem's very nature means most characters are more flavours-of-the-week than anything else - they're good for one game, but I don't feel they should return for another, with the exception of Marth due to pretty much being the face of Fire Emblem.
Want: 0%. I preferred Marth in Melee, and never played Roy's game.

Layton: 10%

Ganon X5

 

[jaytalks]

Despite my low rating for him, Roy is still my boy in Melee, so I hate to see him lacking in themes compared to his FE counterparts.
Roy Music:
Winning Road
Shaman in the Dark
Melancholy
Ships and Homes (It's from FE7 but I forgot to give it to Lyn. Representing his cameo,)

 

[loganhogan]

Lip 25%, 60% Could happen but I don't see her too likely and she seems cool so I wouldn't complain.
Roy 30%, 30% Chrom is the terror that scares me into thinking other characters don't have much chance like him. Roy is okay but not my favorite selection.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lip
Chance: 19% - I'm pretty sure that the only reason people care about Lip is because of her item being prevalent in Smash. No one would know who she was otherwise.
Want: 25% - I know nothing about her.

Roy
Chance: 50% - He retains a loyal fan base.
Want: 30% - I'd much rather see Chrom.

Professor Layton Prediction: 4%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[Deleted member]

So for those saying that Roy has competition, well there's no denying that he has competition, but if we are going to be using too much competition as a mark against Roy, shouldn't this also apply to Chrom and Lucina as well?

I also don't think there's a huge amount of contenders for this game from Fire Emblem, at least not nearly as many as people are implying with these posts. The only ones with a shot of getting in are Roy, Chrom and Lucina. Everyone else has too much going against them to get in.

 

[farvin111]

Lip
Chance: 10%
Possible, but after 2 games with content from Lip's game but without her actually appearing (or does she?), I just don't think she's gonna make it into playable status.

Want: 20%
It would be cool I guess, but I wouldn't care if she doesn't make it in.

Roy
Chance: 25%
I'm sure Marth and Ike are gonna return, but if there's gonna be a 3rd rep (which I think there'll be), it would be a new FE character. However, Roy is definitely next on the waitlist if there's to be 4 reps.

Want: 75%
He's an awesome character.

Layton: 6.71%

x5 Chrom & Lucina

 

[AEMehr]

Oh my god we're talking Layton soon.

must
contain
excitement

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

So for those saying that Roy has competition, well there's no denying that he has competition, but if we are going to be using too much competition as a mark against Roy, shouldn't this also apply to Chrom and Lucina as well?

I also don't think there's a huge amount of contenders for this game from Fire Emblem, at least not nearly as many as people are implying with these posts. The only ones with a shot of getting in are Roy, Chrom and Lucina. Everyone else has too much going against them to get in.

Well, I wouldn't consider Robin or Anna out of the running. Robin's one of Awakening's three main characters (Arguably, the most important of the 3, story wise), and Anna is considered the mascot (Alongside Marth), and both would bring incredibly unique movesets, at least among the Fire Emblem candidates. They both have stuff against them, sure, but both have quite a lot for them as well. And I would consider massive competition a huge knock against Chrom and Lucina as well. Personally, I don't think I'd give any Fire Emblem candidate over, say 50% chance, max. It's not likely to get more than 3 slots, so giving the candidates a rating that together exceeds maybe 110% makes little sense to me, considering the extra 10% as the shot for a 4th slot. But that's just my view, really. *Shurgs*

 

[jaytalks]

So for those saying that Roy has competition, well there's no denying that he has competition, but if we are going to be using too much competition as a mark against Roy, shouldn't this also apply to Chrom and Lucina as well?

I also don't think there's a huge amount of contenders for this game from Fire Emblem, at least not nearly as many as people are implying with these posts. The only ones with a shot of getting in are Roy, Chrom and Lucina. Everyone else has too much going against them to get in.

I don't see why Robin isn't also on that list. Personalized appearances became possible with the Villager. I don't use this in my argument but just saying.

My guess would be that they are saying that his competition has more factors that work in their favor. It's not simply just that they are his competition.

 

[ChronoBound]

One thing people need to consider (especially for characters like Chrom or Lucina) is that Sakurai has gone on the record that he wants to select newcomers that are distinctive from characters that have already been in Smash Bros. Chrom/Lucina seem like pretty much the arch-typical lords. They don't really have qualities about them that distinguish themselves from the rest of the lords in the series, let alone other characters in Smash Bros.

Sakurai has already done this when selecting Roy (felt he contrasted himself more than other sword-wielding lords at the time), and Ike (felt that he would offer an entirely different style of swordsmen not seen in Smash Bros.).

I think if Sakurai were to go with an entirely new FE character, he would want to represent something about the series that has yet to be seen in Smash Bros. (namely something aside from someone who just primarily uses a sword, has a cape, and half of the time has blue-hair).

 

[Groose]

Sorry for the late update, guys. Got hit with a few unexpected errands. I'm working on the noms now. I'll let voting go for another ten-fifteen minutes before I end the day.

Lip's Chances: 15%
This is mostly based off of the fact that Sakurai is known to like the character... and that he enjoys reviving retros from the brink of death. It's quite possible that he'll choose her even if he previously noted that she wasn't a character that is widely liked.

Lip Want: 50%
I love "Retro" characters (Lip is close enough to one despite her more recent appearances), I love puzzle games, and she seems like a decent choice. A Puzzle League character like her could have a very, very interesting playstyle. I may not know her well, but I know and love her game series. She is on the "cutesy" side for me, but I'd still welcome her.

Roy's Chances: 20%
His greatest boon is his Japanese popularity. He is also helped out by the fact Sakurai planned him for Brawl. His Western following is also pretty solid... but this board has a tendency to exaggerate it. Pretty much the only ones who want Roy back are those who played Melee... yet Brawl and Awakening have introduced new fans and new wanted characters.

Roy's Want: 15%
*Activates Flame-shield* Never a huge Roy fan. I always preferred Marth in Melee, and just viewed Roy as his doppelganger. Also, I'm pretty tepid on Fire Emblem as a whole; it's my least favorite of Nintendo's "Core Series." If he gets in with an original moveset, great. Welcome to the gang. If he becomes a Marth-semi clone again... eh. A bit of a waste of time.

Professor Layton Prediction: 4.63%
He'll get more credit than Geno because he's actually appeared in multiple games... but he won't do as well as Belmont, who is a more "recognizable" character.

Slime x10.
I'm sick of watching Cheezey Bites stru-goo-l. These puns are harder than they look.

 

[ChronoBound]

I will put my ratings:

Lip: 33%
Want: 40% (Tetris Attack is my favorite puzzle game next to Wario's Woods)

Roy: 90% (if DLC happens for Smash 4), if no DLC then 66%. Really I am more worried about Roy being a victim of time constraints again if anything else.
Want: 95% (Ridley is the only character I want more, though I also want Mewtwo as much as Roy)

I will elaborate more on these ratings when I have the time.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't see why Robin isn't also on that list. Personalized appearances became possible with the Villager. I don't use this in my argument but just saying.

My guess would be that they are saying that his competition has more factors that work in their favor. It's not simply just that they are his competition.

I don't think Sakurai will seriously consider any non-lord characters for this game. Lords are generally the most important characters in the game and as such, this is where I see the pool of characters coming from. Sure Anna might emerge as a contender in future Smash game, but she needs to build her importance more before I could see her. Perhaps by SSB5 that'll happen, but for now, I only see lords being in contentions.

As for the latter, I could go on about how I feel Roy has the best chance out of the Fire Emblem contenders. I won't deny that he has competition, but I don't feel that they're so overwhelming that Roy won't return.

 

[Groose]

I don't think Sakurai will seriously consider any non-lord characters for this game. Lords are generally the most important characters in the game and as such, this is where I see the pool of characters coming from. Sure Anna might emerge as a contender in future Smash game, but she needs to build her importance more before I could see her. Perhaps by SSB5 that'll happen, but for now, I only see lords being in contentions.

As for the latter, I could go on about how I feel Roy has the best chance out of the Fire Emblem contenders. I won't deny that he has competition, but I don't feel that they're so overwhelming that Roy won't return.

I'd argue that the Avatar/Tactician is the single possible character who isn't a Lord. They could be chosen to represent a more magical-based approach, and they did play a large part in the most recent FE. I wouldn't consider them likely, but they do have a slight chance in my opinion.

Did I miss something? Is the day being updated later now, or is this just a temporary thing?

I switched my updates from 11 AM EST to 7 PM EST. I had a shift in my work schedule that pretty much made it impossible for me to update at 11 AM with any consistency. Still... I've been rather negligent in sticking to the 7 PM time. I'm working on it, but real life just keeps popping up.

I'm trying to make sure every day lasts at least 22 hours and goes for no more than 30. I'm working on it.

DAY OVER

GROOSING UP THE NEW DAY ​