Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Smasher 101]

Lip's chances: 15% - There are more likely Retro reps.
Want: 60% - Sure.

Roy's chances: 25% - Eh...I doubt more than three FE reps, and I think Chrom has the best chance for the third slot. Roy is the second most likely, however.
Want: 50% - I liked using him in Melee, but I don't really care if he comes back or not.

Layton prediction: 22%

Falco x5 (Almost there!)

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 15%
Want: 45%

Roy:
Likelihood: 14%
Want: 4%

Layton: 9%

Falco x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Lip: 10% IDK
Want: 50% SHRUG!

Roy: 18%... Wait is that what I gave him last time? Yeah, I'm pretty sure. Seriously I don't even get what the fuss about him is about. WE NEED OUR REDHEADED MARTH CLONE BACK HE HAD FIRE POWER!!!!!! Just like... A lot of characters actually.
Want: 10% Meh.

Layton: 17% Can someone tell me his moveset potential? XD I won't change my prediction but who still

Mr. Game and Watch x2 (we'll rate Falco before him... I can live with that. Mr. Game and Watch isn't going any where any ways...) Wonder Red x1 Omastar x1 And... I feel bad for Tharja I'll give her one nom and won't do so again most likely so... Tharja x1

 

[Deleted member]

Lip
Chances: 5%
She doesn't have a big enough chance in my opinion and she is a very obscure character. In case you don't know, she was the star of her own game of Panel de Pon which was never released stateside if I am correct. Wait, Tetris Attack was released stateside and it was based off of Panel de Pon, but stars Yoshi as well as several other Mario characters instead of Lip and the characters in her game. There hasn't been anything too notable from Lip other than "Lip's Stick" being an item in Melee and Brawl and she was in Captain Rainbow which also has Little Mac and Takamaru in the game. Speaking of those two, she, like them, are considered retro characters (Little Mac did have a game on the Wii recently so... I guess he isn't so retro anymore?), but I've seen more demand and more popularity for Little Mac and Takamaru than Lip. She had gained some recognition from Sakurai from the already mentioned Lip's Stick being in Melee and Brawl and having her theme be remixed for Brawl as well as some Stickers from her game, but I don't think that he would want to put her on the roster.
Want: 5%
I don't hate her, but I rather have Little Mac and Takamaru than Lip.

Roy
Chances: 30%
Being a part of the infamous Forbidden 7, Roy was supposed to be in Brawl alongside Marth and Ike. If this was the Brawl era, I would give him higher chances. However, his ship has sailed and now he faces much more competition. With Marth being pretty much a lock and Ike being very safe, Roy suffers from competition from the more recent Fire Emblem characters such as Chrom and Lucina. He does have DLC for Awakening, so I guess this does help him slightly. He also has more demand than any character from Awakening which is pretty remarkable. He can easily be decloned and have an original moveset, so I don't find the cloning issue to particularly hurt his chances. Overall, with competition from other Fire Emblem characters, Roy would have to be pretty lucky to make it on the roster again for SSB4, though Sakurai can be a bit unpredictable.
Want: 45%
If this was the Brawl era, I would have rated my Want percentage a bit higher. When I saw that he wasn't in Brawl, I was admittedly disappointed. But now, I am not even sure if I want to see him in another SSB game. I don't hate the character like most do, but I would have some slight disappointment if he got in instead of a more potential character.

Professor Layton Prediction: 8.7%
He's third party right? While he has ties with Nintendo, he suffers from some competition.

Nominations:
Bowser Jr. 4x
Captain Rainbow 1x (he is from his own game in Japan called "Captain Rainbow" made by Skip Ltd.; since we are talking about Lip, I guess I feel obligated to give him a nomination)

EDIT: I changed my rating for Roy and edited my stance on his chances.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Lip (I don't know much about this character so I won't leave an explanation)
Chance: 5%

Want: 5%

Roy
Chance 50%
I can see him coming back but I think there will be Chrom or Lucina or another current FE rep.

Want: 99.9%
My main in melee!!!! He is awesome!

Prediction of Layton: 11.5%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[Groose]

Wow you guys are underrating Professor Layton, despite all the sources between Sakurai and Level 5.

I'm one of the biggest fans of Professor Layton... and I don't see him getting in Smash. Still... I'm going to inflate his want score as best I can.

 

[ChronoBound]

I think many people tend to undersell Roy's chances. Sakurai likes revisiting characters he was unable to finish, and Sakurai has already shown this tendency with Smash 4 (Villager). I think its going to become clearer that Sakurai wants to implement his "unfinished business" when Mewtwo is confirmed in October (I think only other plausible contenders for a possible veteran confirmation in October are Sonic or some sort of Pokemon veteran).

Roy's biggest problem is probably time constraints. However, even if Roy gets knocked out of the roster again for it like with Brawl, there is potentially the option for DLC this time.

I don't think this helps him too much when I've seen Chrom and Lucina get more demand and have decent popularity compared to Roy.

You do know that the demand for Roy is stronger than ANY FE13 character in both Japan and the West right?

 

[SchAlternate]

Oh my god. My most wanted newcomer for Smash 4 and my favorite playable character in the same day!? Am... am I dreaming!?

Welp, here goes nothing!

Lip
Likelihood: 37% - Given how popular the Puzzle League series is and how much moveset potential a character hailing from a puzzle game (that isn't Dr. Mario ) would offer, I see no reason why Lip shouldn't deserve to make an appearance. However, the poor girl suffers one major disadvantage: she only appear in two games in the series and they were both only released in Japan. Because of it, barely anyone outside of Japan knows about here. Still, she's sometimes seen as the mascot of one of the best puzzle series of all time, and she's even been referenced a few times in Smash Bros. (Her weapon, the Lip's Stick, appears as an item since Melee, and her theme plays in Brawl)
Want: 100% - I've always desired to see a character that could represent the puzzle genre (aside from Dr. Mario, who I liked to play as better than Mario anyway), since it offers so much potential and uniqueness, and Lip seems to be the character that seems to be more fit to take that spot.

Roy
Likelihood: 64% - The only real competition he's got is Chrom, and even he's not that likely. Really, if we're getting a third FE character (which is somewhat likely to happen), more likely than not, it's going to be Roy.
Want: 100% - ROY'S OUR BOY! ROY'S OUR BOY! ROY'S OU- *cough cough* *ahem* Sorry.

Professor Layton
Prediction: 18% - Speaking of puzzle game representatives! Though, Layton is somewhat of a third party, and unlike Lip, I can't really see him as a playable fighter (unless some amazingly elaborated moveset chart proves me otherwise).

Nominations
Meowth x5

 

[Groose]

Captain Rainbow 1x (he is from his own game in Japan called "Captain Rainbow" made by Skip Ltd.; since we are talking about Lip, I guess I feel obligated to give him a nomination)

I know who he is and I'm shocked at how he hasn't received much love among Smash fans.

You do know that the demand for Roy is stronger than ANY FE13 character in both Japan and the West right?

In Japan, yes. In the West... maybe. It really depends on where you look. A lot of people are really lukewarm about Roy's return. If Awakening had spawned a single, obvious choice instead of the "trio" (Chrom, Lucina, Robin), an Awakening rep would probably be even more popular. Fans of the game are divided among themselves.

 

[jaytalks]

I think many people tend to undersell Roy's chances. Sakurai likes revisiting characters he was unable to finish, and Sakurai has already shown this tendency with Smash 4 (Villager). I think its going to become clearer that Sakurai wants to implement his "unfinished business" when Mewtwo is confirmed in October (I think only other plausible contenders for a possible veteran confirmation in October are Sonic or some sort of Pokemon veteran).

Roy's biggest problem is probably time constraints. However, even if Roy gets knocked out of the roster again for it like with Brawl, there is potentially the option for DLC this time.




You do know that the demand for Roy is stronger than ANY FE13 character in both Japan and the West right?

Villager isn't a character the team wasn't able to finish. It's a character they took off the table during the planning stages due to the fact he/she wasn't suited for battle in Brawl.

I was done with my Lip analysis and I forgot about Roy. D'oh!

 

[Deleted member]

You do know that the demand for Roy is stronger than ANY FE13 character in both Japan and the West right?

I have taken note of that and I have edited my post.

 

[ChronoBound]

Villager isn't a character the team wasn't able to finish. It's a character they took off the table during the planning stages due to the fact he/she wasn't suited for battle in Brawl.

It was a previous character idea he had (like with Lucas with Melee). There have been plenty of characters where he has had to drop a character due to time constraints and gone back to add them in for a future installment (Bowser, Mewtwo, King Dedede, and according to some sources, Wolf).

 

[Glaciacott]

Lip
Chances 6%
Frankly, I just don't see it happening, even after watching videos and studying the original game. Even if we're talking about expanding to series without representation, I just see other series taking that priority long before Panel de Pon. That said, I would love a stage based on it. (even though I'd love a Meteos stage much more, particularly because of it's music).

Yes, I've waited for an excuse to share that music.

Want 50%
I'm pretty indifferent. If she made it in I imagine she's need one of the more unique movesets we could have, so as a result I could envision using her and liking her. But for now, meh.

Roy
Chances 13%
I feel like I'm being benevolent here. As I've said before, Fire Emblem doesn't need a lot of reps, but people have a want for a lot of its characters. At most, I'd want Marth and Robin, and I suppose Ike to avoid cutting a unique character. But to stack on top of that a character that from the beginning was a clone? I don't see Sakurai eager to do that especially with his whole desire to be unique.
"But Glaciacott, Roy has fire, he could totally be unique" Well, yea, and same goes for Young Link. Do we really want to declonify characters that would just swell representation for series that 1) could bring newer characters with more refreshing movesets and 2) are already well represented in the first place?

Want 0%
I don't care for Roy. I'll play him in Melee, but don't want him to come back at the expense of more interesting Fire Emblem characters. Just ... no, give us Robin instead. Or even Chrom and Lucina. F*ck it, I'll even take Tharja.

Prediction
Professor Layton - 21%
Such a wild card for me. It's a series that easily sells systems, helps define Nintendo handheld hardware, and is just really really fun. But!! The third party status of Layton is what will inspire doubt in many, myself included. This is one tough cookie ...

Nominations
x5 Ashley

 

[Sid-cada]

Lip

Chance - 45% - I think that if we get another retro character besides Takamaru, whether it be alongside or instead of him, Lip is the most likely choice. I mean, Sakurai himself said that Panel de Pon was a "masterpiece," only saying that she would not make it do to being "too obscure." With each passing installment, there has been more references to the series, and being "too obscure" has been holding less weight with the inclusion of Fire Emblem, Game & Watch, and Ice Climbers in Melee, and Lucas' inclusion in Brawl.

Want - 80% - One of my most wanted retro characters, and the fact that she could be considered retro itself somewhat saddens me. Why did it have to fall into obscurity? She seems like she would be so fun to play as.


Roy

Chance - 75% - Awakening seems to have given him stiff completion, but he still has a chance due to sheer popularity.

Want - 85% - After playing Awakening, I can honestly say that I want an Awakening representative less than what I did before. Yes, I have been enjoying the game (trying to protect Tiki in her recruitment is so difficult!), but the two most likely choices just plain seem too cliché and unoriginal to interest me. I mean, Stahl, a character with being ridiculously normal and average is a main trait, manages to interest me than Chrom! Lucina still strikes me as too similar to Marth. I will accept Robin, but only if I have to. As of now, Roy is my favorite character to add for Fire Emblem.


Professor Layton Prediction - 10% - At this point, I think any third party will be crushed, though I do see him as more likely.

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[PreciseMotion]

Lip:

Chance: 15%

Want: 0%

Roy:

Chance: 65%

Want: 40%

Nomination:
King Boo x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Lip: 10%
Want: 50%

Roy: 65% Chrom is his only real competition imo, and Roy still has massive popularity
Want: 100%

Layton: 10%
Nominate:
Lyn x 4
Yarne x 1

 

[SchAlternate]

Chance: 15%

Want: 0%

Nomination:
King Boo x5

Did you notice there are two characters to vote on? You might like to specify who you're referring at...

 

[Forde]

Lip:

Chances 10%

Want 10%

Roy:

Chances 75% If Ike is going to return, then Roy's only competition is from Chrom/Lucina.

Want 100% Roy was one of my mains in Melee, absolutely love FE6, would love to see him return. And after all, ROY'S OUR BOY.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Xenigma]

Lip - 2%
I don't remember the exact quote, but as memory serves Sakurai has said that, while he likes Lip, he doesn't think she is well known enough to be in Smash. Maybe his opinion has changed since then, but the sentiment is pretty well justified: she has starred in two games, both Japan only, and only has minor cameos beyond that such as in Captain Rainbow. That's a weak resume compared to many other contenders for Smash from unrepped series, and unless Nintendo has plans to revive Panel de Pon internationally, I can't imagine she has a good chance of making the cut. Still, considering her item and music have made it into Smash before, maybe she at least gets to be an assist trophy this time? It's a bit odd she missed that bar in Brawl, but I think with certain characters like Little Mac and Isaac becoming playable, she should be able to make it that far.
Want - 20% - Curious character, but she's not exactly a Nintendo all-star.

Roy - 30%
I don't remember what I said before about Roy or how I rated him, and I don't feel like dredging up the post, so I'll be brief: he's got a decent chance given fan demand from nostalgic Melee players, but I think there is a much stronger chance he misses the mark with both Marth and Ike returning and Chrom or Lucina appearing to rep the wildly successful Awakening. Was a very sensible cut post-Melee and seems likely to stay cut for SSB4.
Want - 10% - That's ten points of nostalgia. Really, I'd much rather have Chrom, Lucina, or some other more interesting Fire Emblem character.

Professor Layton Prediction - 5%
Third Party, and isn't nearly as Smash-worthy as the three third party reps we've had. I can't foresee too many fans as a result.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Lip
chances 3%: In terms of retro characters, i think it will be takamaru and little mac (hes still retro right??). Duck hunt dog would be awesome to.
Want 1%: I am not familiar with her at all

Roy
Chances 45%: I think it will be chrom and not roy, and i really doubt fire emblem will have more than 2 reps
Want 25%: he was one of my mains in melee, but he was a clone.

Layton 9%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Lip: 15%
An interesting retro choice but I just can't see her happening.

Want: 30%
Too cutsie for my taste.

Roy: 75%
His only competition is Chrom. But have even chances in my opinion. Just depends on what Sakurai goes for.

Want: 100%
No cuts. And I would love to have our Roy back.

Layton Prediction: 6%
Not much of a shot...

Nominations:
Snake x3
Mr. Game & Watch
Falco

 

[PK_Wonder]

Lip - 30%
Roy - 9%

predict - 23%

Wonder Red x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

no one else wants to nominate Sylveon. oh well
I will have to wait 5-6 days or so then

 

[Yams]

Lip
Likelihood: 7% I don't see her getting in over Takamaru, Little Mac, Muddy Mole, Sukapon, Sheriff, or the Duck Hunt Dog. I think all of them are much stronger choices, and Lip isn't a very popular character.
Want: 0% I'd prefer any of the above.

Roy
Likelihood: 5% I don't see him in over Ike OR Chrom.
Want: 50% Roy should only return if he's decloned.

Professor Layton: 2%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Lip
Likelihood: 8%
The same number I gave Porky. Very unlikely, and really obscure. The Panel de Pon series does continue to feature her in tiny amounts. Her biggest obstacle, imo, is Nintendo's reluctance to bring her to the West. Why do they keep removing her?

Want: 55%
Her music in Brawl is great, and she's cute. :3

Roy
Likelihood: 65% A decent chance of being playable. He remains a popular choice, and was intended to be playable in Brawl.

Want: 99%
1% less than what I gave him last time. Maybe because I'm looking forward to fresher faces (not from Fire Emblem, but other series). He's still my top pick for the next FE rep after Marth and Ike.

Prof. Layton prediction: 13%
Giving him the unlucky number. Any 3rd party newcomer not named Pac-Man just seems plain unlikely at this point.

Nominations: Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[PreciseMotion]

Did you notice there are two characters to vote on? You might like to specify who you're referring at...

Sorry. Lip. I'll edit it.

 

[Salty the SLUG]

Lip
Chances: 5%
Want: 10%
A cool character that not many have heard of. Her item is in the game (Lip's stick), so that might show that Nintendo has not forgotten about her. Additionally, the Smash roster needs more Female reps.
Roy
Chances: 25%
Want: 25%
I loved playing as Roy, but when he was removed in Brawl, I didn't care much for his departure. Nintendo knows people want him back, but the issue with Roy is that Roy was a clone character of Marth AND he's another sword character.

Nominations:
Boswer Jr. X5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Lip chance: 5%
Not well known enough.

Lip want: 0%
If Lip was included then Lip's Stick (one of my top ten favourite items) would probably be excluded in the next game.

Roy chance: 15.98%
He had his chance and there's too many Fire Emblem characters to compete with.

Roy want: 50%
Indifference

Layton prediction 8.99%
Don't see much fighting potential.

Anthony Higgs x5

Did I miss something? Is the day being updated later now, or is this just a temporary thing?

 

[Starcutter]

Lip: 15%

want: 10% too japan for america... yoshi instead.

Roy: 64%

Want: 50%

Layton: 14.8%

noms:
Kamek xMAX (ALMOST THERE, COME ON GUYS HELP!)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

want: 10% too japan for america... yoshi instead.

I never knew that a Green dinosaur was all that Japanese...

 

[Starcutter]

I never knew that a Green dinosaur was all that Japanese...

...you did know what I was referring to right?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

...you did know what I was referring to right?

The fact that they are cutesy?

Or that they were both technically in the same game just different areas?

 

[Starcutter]

The fact that they are cutesy?

Or that they were both technically in the same game just different areas?

the second one.

I didn't get the first post you did. am I just stupid or something?

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Lip: 8%
The biggest evidence towards her inclusion is the appearance of both her Stick and her theme in Brawl, which doesn't really say much. After all, Takamaru got even less representation in that game.

Want: 5%
I like her theme, I guess. Other than that, I am uninterested in Lip.

Roy: 2%
He was removed from Brawl for a reason, guys.

Want: 4%
He's not MY boy.

Prof. Layton prediction: 9.5%

Nominations:
Goemon x2
Prince of Sable x2
Neku Sakuraba (without Shiki) (The World Ends With You) x1

 

[Deleted member]

The fact that they are cutesy?

Or that they were both technically in the same game just different areas?

Yoshi starred in a game called "Tetris Attack" which is pretty much like Panel de Pon. Tetris Attack came to the US as opposed to Panel de Pon.

I know who he is and I'm shocked at how he hasn't received much love among Smash fans.

Same. The game is pretty dang obscure and is pretty much the opposite of what SSB is. It's... rather interesting and after seeing a whole playthrough, I would be interested in playing the game. I might give him one nomination a day despite the fact that I know that he will do pretty poorly.

 

[Starbound]

Lip: 15%
Being Japanese only is her biggest downfall, and I'd probably give her somewhere in the 30s if she was international.

Want: 65%
Something unique and different whoo!

Roy: 60%
If the Japanese are vocal that they think that Brawl's roster+Mewtwo and Roy is enough, then I don't see why Sakurai can't listen to them about it.

Want: 70%
If it can't be Lucina, I'd rather have Roy than Chrom.

5x nomz Mach Rider

 

[Wonks]

Roy

Chance: 10%
I was initially thinking lower, but who knows? He's got a Smash following, Fire Emblem is gaining in popularity, and Sakurai might just throw him in (he is a clone, after all).

Want: 15%
One of my friends mained Roy, so I'd like to have him back for his sake. Conversely, my other friend detests Roy with a passion unbridled. Personally...eh, I can count on one hand the number of times I played as him.


Nomination: Captain Rainbow x2

 

[Jedisupersonic]

(he is a clone, after all).

Luigi was, Falco was, Ganondorf was, They all changed why can't Roy if he returns? That kind of thinking is poisonous.

 

[Fastblade5035]

Lip

Chance: 7%

Want: 2%

Roy (who is NOT MY ****ING BOY)

Chance: 25%
Has competition, don't remember what I gave him before but this feels right. Chrom is just too much trouble for Roy.

Want: 0%
Damnit, now all the Roy fanboys and girls are coming out.

Layton: 10%
He's not in a league of his own, but he's probably near the top of the one he's in.

Noms;
Ephraim x5

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Lip
Chance: 10% Yeah, she's been a part of the series for a while, in a way, but she's pretty obscure. It seems there are more likely retro reps.
Want: 50% I'm indifferent. She could be very cool though, but I'm really unfamiliar with her.

Roy
Chance: 5% Sorry Roy fans. He only shows up on one side of the Pacific, has to compete with Awakening's trio, is another sword wielder, and was cut from Brawl. If he's even considered, he'll be even lower priority than probably all of the Brawl cast, and losing at least some of them is nearly certain. The only way I see him showing up is for Fire Emblem's (Very unlikely) fourth slot or as DLC. And for simplicity's sake, I'm only considering on-disc. All in all, I almost feel like my rating is generous.
Want: 10% Ugh, give me a non sword wielder. Fire Emblem has so much more than swords.

Predict Layton: 9.34% Any third party needs to be a special case.

Nominate Mona x5