Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Chauzu]

Roy

Likeliness: 40%

My gut again. His chance is the enormous reactions that followed his removal from Brawl, and the fact that he's already been in a Smash game (thus moveset not being such a big question). However, he has been dropped before. My limited FE knowledge tells me he's hardly that relevant nowadays either. Also, we have maybe 3 chars competing for 2 (?) places - Ike, Roy and Chrom. Quite a few questions, but the 40% feels right to me.

Want: 10%

Really, I'd just like to keep Marth and get 1-2 new FE reps and then repeat this procedure in every future Smash games. And then add some old classics as DLC.

Mii

Prediction: 67%

Nominations

Takamaru x3
Scrooge McDuck
Phoenix Wright

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Roy: Popular, but hasn't had a major role in 10 years, and probably won't get a 3rd spot for a FE rep over Chrom or Lucina. 12%
Want: 65%
Mii: 55%
Nominations
Lyn x 1
Lucas x 3
Lucario x 1

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Roy likelyhood: 30% He has veteran status, but I don't see him as high on the list as Chrom or Lucina.
Want: 60% I'd like to see him return, I always liked Roy more than Marth in Melee. But...I'd rather see Ike return more than Roy.
Mii: 50% Not too sure about this one, I read somewhere that they might cause some problems with like "online bullying" or something, but then again they're in a lot of other games and are a part of Nintendo's history...

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Roy

Likeliness: 52.6

I think that Roy has a decent chance of appearing but I think we will either get Chrom or Roy, not both unless Ike is removed. While I don't have the source, I do remember something going around that Sakurai asked Intelligent Systems which character that would suggest; in which they said Ike. He was the most popular lord at the time so there is a good chance they will put forth Chrom if asked. I kind of doubt they would put forth Roy and Roy would be more of a decision by Sakurai rather than IS.

He is one of the most requested characters/veterans in Japan and is almost equal to Mewtwo.

Want: 22%
I liked Roy in SSBM and I would like to see him return but its not a priority for me.

Mii
Prediction: 49.5%

Nomz:

Nightmare x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Roy - 40%

He definitely has a chance but I feel that when he missed out on brawl it might mean he will have even less priority this time around.

Want - 8%

I don't have much want or desire for Roy. I would rather a female or spell casting fire emblem rep.

Mii prediction - 50%

I honestly don't know how this one will go, so I'm staying neutral.

Nominations:
Chibi Robo X3
Robin X2 (Fire Emblem)

 

[foolssigma]

Roy: 35% I feel like he will not return since he did not for Brawl, though I find Mewtwo much more likely.
Want: 50% I'm very indifferent to Roy. I'd rather have Chrom or avatar though

Mii: 64%

Nominations: I'm having more trouble picking who to nominate than anything else now lol
Bandana/Waddle Dee x 5 just cause I like DeDeDe so much

 

[Groose]

i misread the rules and results everything. i think ive messed up both scores so I will probably remove myself from this game entirely. I assure you that there was no attempt to misrepresent the scores anything. i didnt decode the posts or anything, and I use the same sig. im a member of gamefaqs so i vote on things as well. I apologize for ruining this game for anyone else.

Nah, you don't have to do that. You seem pretty honest for the most part; if you continue voting on one site only, you can continue playing. However, I if I catch you doing it again, especially now that you know the rules, you're perma-banned, no exceptions.

I know I'm being pretty lenient here, but a note to others: don't abuse my tolerance. Now that we've had this issue once and discussed it openly, I will be less tolerant to anyone who tries to pull the same charade.

Since this is only the first time something like this has happened, I'm just trying to dispel whatever confusion may arise. I'd suggest everyone take another peek at the rules; they're fairly straightforward.

As a side note, Roy seems to be stirring up the absolute best from our discussing minds!

 

[PlayerOneTyler]

Roy

Likeliness: 5% He's pretty irrelevant now compared to other Fire Emblem reps.
Want: 10% I guess I wouldn't mind him returning, but I really don't care for him, and I think there are better characters to take his place.
Mii: 70.4%
Nominations: Ice Climbersx3, Pokemon Trainer x2

 

[PK_Wonder]

There's no doubt in him leaving.

We all think he's good as confirmed.

Sorry for the confusion, that's what I'm saying, he's not in this the list from the OP of characters we don't need to bother voting on.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Roy: 8%
want: 45%

Mii Prediction: 54%

Nominations: x5 waddle dee

 

[Smashiny]

Roy 5 % , he's pretty irrelevant and even Ike's chances are slim, there probably will be a new FE - representative... (I'd love Anna as a new rep but that's probably not gonna happen :/...)
Want 1 %, really don't care for him :/

Mii: 65 %

Nominations:
5 x Waddle Dee

 

[TumblrFamous]

Oh boy, here we go.

Roy Prediction: 55%
He's popular, has a fire sword, and he's a veteran they tried to bring back. That's really it. I feel like characters such as Lynn or Chrom have more priority over him.

Want: 75%
He's not a character I would want to see in, but I'd be thrilled if they decided to bring him back. He was pretty fun to play as.

Mii: 53%
This is going to be all over the place. This is a wild guess.

As for my nominations:
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Opossum]

Roy's Our Boy!

Likelihood: 82%

Yeah, I'm going there. Fan demand, awesome new redesign, planned for Brawl, and T3H PH1R3!

Want: 95%
Fire swords are cool.

Predicting a 34.6% for Mii

Nominating Ice Climbers x5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Roy

Chance: 25%

Sorry to the fans of the Flare Boy, but he's not as likely as some would like to believe. Maybe once we've seen Ike and a (more than likely) newcomer from Awakening he stands a better chance. Roy might be requested a lot, but he'll likely only get in if we get 4 Fire Emblem Lords playable. Ike will get in before him, no doubt. As Ike's moveset, popularity and importance are all greater than Roy's. 3 FE characters are likely, but it's highly unlikely it's gonna be Roy.

Want: 70%

I actually like him better than Chrom and all other FE newcomers. He'd make a great Luigified Marth clone, and in terms of FE characters: the more, the merrier. I'd never pick him before Ike though.

Mii: I predict it'll get 65%. but I hate the Mii, and want it to be 1%

Nominations:

Diddy Kong

 

[BlitznBurst]

Likelihood: 90%
Want: 50%
Mii prediction: 50%

Waddle Dee x5

 

[Groose]

Son of a gun...

I hate compiling votes on a late night.

Don't worry; it's fixed now. You're doing a much better job then that first day when I handled the noms, though. I had like half a dozen mistakes.

Sorry for the confusion, that's what I'm saying, he's not in this the list from the OP of characters we don't need to bother voting on.

I may have accidentally deleted him while making edits to the OP. I'm addressing the issue now; thank you for bringing it to my attention.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Roy Likelihood: 40% I know popularity is far from the only thing that matters, but he is so requested it is hard for me to not think he has a good chance. At the same time though, Sakurai might suspect (and probably rightly so) that most cuts he could make at this point would gain similar popularity for inclusion in the next game, and well Sakurai seems to know that some cuts will be necessary this time. Then again Roy was part of the forbidden 7. Maybe Sakurai really regrets his exclusion. This could go either way, but I think not getting in is slightly more likely because he missed the boat once already.

Roy Want: 50% Honestly... Idk. It depends on how well he is decloned. I have been meaning to give the fire emblem games a try, but haven't gotten around to it yet, so he isn't that iconic to me, but at the same time, his inclusion in Melee did give me a certain fondness for it. If he makes it I imagine he'd be fairly significantly redesigned. I'd have to see the new design to give a more accurate want rating.

Mii: Ah the last and possibly least wanted of the "leaked" characters. I imagine he will do better than Pac-Man but worse than Little Mac so I averaged there scores and arrived at 70% almost on the dot so I'm going with 70%.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Groose]

Roy's Likelihood: 20% Yeah, I just don't see it happening. He's really popular HERE, among hard-core Melee fans, but he isn't nearly as popular anywhere else. Many people only view him as a Marth clone. More importantly, he faces steep competition from Awakening. Even if the campaign for bringing back Melee veterans does succeed, it will most likely only work for Mewtwo, who is by far the most popular character in this category.

Roy Want: 15% *Activates Protective Shield* I've just never understood his popularity. I never really used him in Melee---I always preferred Marth and viewed Roy as a cheap clone. Additionally, I have never played his game, and I know that the vast majority of Smash players also haven't. Personally, I'd rather we got an Awakening character for out third Fire Emblem rep.

Mii Prediction: 68% We've seen before that a great deal of people believe the "leak." Miis are also incredibly important to Nintendo's history by this point---that's a fact that no one will dare try and deny. Even so, Mii will receive hate for being too casual and overlapping with the Wii Fit Trainer.

Nominate Tingle x5! Kooloo-Limpah power, baby!

I want to take this moment to apologize to the fans of this game: we have already begun and are about to continue on a stretch where we will rate a slew of Fire Emblem characters. Owain, Chrom, and Lyn will probably all appear within the next week; Tharja might slip in as well. I can't do anything to help add variety; you are the ones who are making the nominations. The reason we are receiving so many Fire Emblem characters now is that they were completely absent during the first two weeks of the game, during which time many accumulated a large amount of votes. I ask for your patience during this timespan.

 

[FalKoopa]

I want to take this moment to apologize to the fans of this game: we have already begun and are about to continue on a stretch where we will rate a slew of Fire Emblem characters. Owain, Chrom, and Lyn will probably all appear within the next week; Tharja might slip in as well. I can't do anything to help add variety; you are the ones who are making the nominations. The reason we are receiving so many Fire Emblem characters now is that they were completely absent during the first two weeks of the game, during which time many accumulated a large amount of votes. I ask for your patience during this timespan.

It's a good time to be a Fire Emblem fan, gentlemen.

 

[Reznor]

Roy likelihood: 30%
even with people asking for him i'm not sure we will get him

Roy want: 0%
if I thought he wouldn't be a clone I wouldn't care if he got in or not but I think they will make him a clone

Mii Prediction: 70%
nintendo pushes a lot of Mii stuff I wouldn't be surprised if we got to play as Mii

Nominations:
Waluigi x5

I want to take this moment to apologize to the fans of this game: we have already begun and are about to continue on a stretch where we will rate a slew of Fire Emblem characters. Owain, Chrom, and Lyn will probably all appear within the next week; Tharja might slip in as well. I can't do anything to help add variety; you are the ones who are making the nominations. The reason we are receiving so many Fire Emblem characters now is that they were completely absent during the first two weeks of the game, during which time many accumulated a large amount of votes. I ask for your patience during this timespan.

wish i played more than 1 FE game now

 

[BluePikmin11]

Roy chances: 40% It's obvious, it's going to be Chrom next for an FE character.
Roy want: 40%
Mii Prediction: 67.9% It's obvious that theres going to be some haters.

Nominations:
Tom Nook x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Roy's likelihood: 10% - He was intended to be in Brawl from what I remember. But he must have been a low priority character. And to be perfectly honest, he isn't too popular outside of Smash. And really, the only thing that I think can bring him back is if he gets a new moveset.

How much would I want to use Roy? 20%. I do like Roy a lot more than Marth myself. But I understand that Marth is the original hero of his series. So I would only want to see Roy make a comeback if he is made more unique like Luigi or Wolf.

Mii Prediction: 70%. Quite a few people do think that the leak holds some weight to it. And I actually understand that quite a bit. But I won't believe it until I see it. I think some others see it that way too.

I nominate Ganondorf 5 times again. Because why not.

 

[SpaceJell0]

Roy Prediction: lolno 0% He was a clone that was better than Marth, people wanting him back is just insulting Sakurai's development skills

Roy Want: 0% He was kinda bland and I never used him, New FE characters have more personality

Mii: 70% Iconic Status=Mii

Nominations: Starfy x5

 

[Opossum]

Roy Prediction: lolno 0% He was a clone that was better than Marth, people wanting him back is just insulting Sakurai's development skills

Roy Want: 0% He was kinda bland and I never used him, New FE characters have more personality

Mii: 70% Iconic Status=Mii

I don't even...

 

[SpaceJell0]

I don't even...

Perhaps I worded that wrong, I don't think better is the word, I think maybe more close up, in your face, fiery action. A clone that was more gimmicky is better.

 

[TheCreator]

Roy.
Prediction 48%
Want 29%

Mii 67%

3x Tingle
2x Dillon

 

[Gam3rALO]

Looks like this week will be meh for me because I never played FE.
Roy!
25%
The fact he is a vet gives him the tiny boost. But he is only showing little support. There are more relevant characters like Chrom, lyn, etc.
Want: 77%
I LOVED him in melee and he was my main. I would really like it If he came back! I loved the flame sword. I believe is move set is better than Ike. Why? Roy has a flaming sword and not a normal one like Marth and Ike. If Roy got Ike's move set with is flaming sword hat would be very cool for me!
Prediction for Mii: 65%
People still don't support this even after the leak which I believe is true.
Nomination
Takamaru x5

 

[Opossum]

Perhaps I worded that wrong, I don't think better is the word, I think maybe more close up, in your face, fiery action. A clone that was more gimmicky is better.

Even then, though, Marth was the superior of the two. And even then, wanting Roy back doesn't "insult Sakurai's development skills." People just want him back, and based on the demand, especially in Japan, Sakurai is likely to listen to them.

 

[SpaceJell0]

Even then, though, Marth was the superior of the two. And even then, wanting Roy back doesn't "insult Sakurai's development skills." People just want him back, and based on the demand, especially in Japan, Sakurai is likely to listen to them.

We have been fan demand be turned down before, and the fan demand seems to be the only thing Roy has going for him. Anyways let's not turn this game into an argument, its just a personal opinion thread after all

 

[Opossum]

We have been fan demand be turned down before, and the fan demand seems to be the only thing Roy has going for him. Anyways let's not turn this game into an argument, its just a personal opinion thread after all

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to turn this into a heated argument, haha. Just a friendly debate.

And on that one point you mentioned, yes, fan demanded characters have been excluded in past games, but this time there's a lot less competition. Over all, there are far less demanded characters than there were pre-Brawl, so I personally feel that fan demand will hold much more importance this time around.

 

[Reznor]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to turn this into a heated argument, haha. Just a friendly debate.

And on that one point you mentioned, yes, fan demanded characters have been excluded in past games, but this time there's a lot less competition. Over all, there are far less demanded characters than there were pre-Brawl, so I personally feel that fan demand will hold much more importance this time around.

I have to agree with you fan demand is probably more important this time around i'm pretty sure thats why we have Megaman

 

[Groose]

It's a good time to be a Fire Emblem fan, gentlemen.

That it is. I just felt I had to throw a little warning out there; some people may be frustrated over it.

I must confess that Fire Emblem is a series I have to give more of a chance; I have played the Sacred Stones, but that's all. I have been meaning to get to Awakening, but I doubt that will happen for a little while.

>looks at these scores

ohey, roy's doing pretty much as expected over here

>looks at gamefaqs

wow so many 1s

Funny how on Gamefaqs, they all think we're crazy here for rating him so high.

One observation about Gamefaqs: They're all about relevancy. Awakening is more 'relevant' than Roy, so naturally they expect the characters to be heavily drawn from there (outside of Marth, of course).

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Roy: 15%
want: 5%

Mii prediction: 70%

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Likelyhood: 10%. he was taken out of Melee for a reason

Want: 20%: i would be much more open if he wasnt a clone, but clones can waste roster spaces

mii: 80%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Shorts]

Roy: 38% He's just... I don't know. Not Chrom?

Want: 11%

Mii: 48%

x6 Tharja
x4 Zoroark

 

[Groose]

Roy: 38% He's just... I don't know. Not Chrom?

Want: 11%

Mii: 48%

x3 Tharja
x2 Zoroark

I believe you still have five extra noms from a few days ago. Would you like to use them?

 

[Shorts]

Uhm, sure. just double the votes for those two.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Roy
Chances-20%- He has lots of competition. Assuming Marth is a lock, the Chrom, Ike, Lucina, Lyn, etc. IMO, Fire Emblem will get Marth and Chrom, maybe Ike if Sakurai thinks Fire Emblem is deserving of 3 characters. Every other Fire Emblem character is extremely unlikely, but of those extremely unlikely characters Roy has the highest chance.
Want-40%- I don't want him, but if he does get in I wouldn't mind.

Predictions
Mii-68%

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You people realize he can be uncloned right?

 

[MargnetMan23]

You people realize he can be uncloned right?

He can but my personal question is why bother? What he was sort of cool in melee? >.> In spite of his demand I think there are many characters that are much more deserving