Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Sid-cada]

Lucina

Chance - 5% - If we get an Awakening charater, it is Chrom. Chrom has very, very low chances, in my opinion. She barely has a leg to stand on.

Want - 5% - Obvious Marth clone is obvious. What does she offer that is different that Marth?


Roy Prediction - 55% - FAQS will be absolutely merciless, and Smashbords will be cautiously optimistic. # of Smashbords > # of FAQS, so this seems reasonable.

Nominations
Lucario X5

 

[SmashShadow]

Lucina: 24%
She's possible but I see both Chrom and Roy as more likely. It doesn't help that she pretty much plays the role of Marth for half the game. Her moveset pitential isn't any better that Chrom or Roy's either. I doubt she's going to be paired with Chrom either unless maybe for a final smash.

Want: 60% I personally don't care if she's in or Chrom is. I like them both. Roy>both though.

Roy Prediction: 41%

3x Toad
2x Takamaru

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 56%
Want: 50%

Roy: 61%

Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven) x5

 

[Xenigma]

Lucina - 40%
There's no doubt Fire Emblem has a lot of potential representatives, so that naturally limits the chances of any particular one making the cut. What makes Lucina special? Fire Emblem: Awakening is the most popular Fire Emblem ever, and from an official popularity poll we know that Chrom and Lucina are the most popular male and female character in Japan, respectively. That bit of information pushes those two to the top of the consideration for a third Fire Emblem rep. In the face to face comparison, Chrom's got one real thing in his favor: he's the main lord of the game. Lucina, on the other hand, has become the face of the game post-release, appearing on the cover of the soundtrack and art book as Nintendo has pushed her importance over Chrom's now that players have had the time to see her reveal in-game. Then there's the simple idea of what they add to Smash: they both fight with the same style and both use Falchion and spears (they're father/daughter after all), but Lucina would be the first female Fire Emblem character, while Chrom would be just another male blue-haired lord. I'd like to think when Sakurai is comparing the two, Lucina ends up the superior choice. Considering one of the first stages we've been shown is Arena Ferox, the mission where you first fight a disguised Lucina in Awakening, it seems Sakurai may just agree.

Obviously there are no guarantees with Fire Emblem characters: aside from Marth, who should be very safe, we've already had Roy cut for Brawl, and Ike is generally not considered safe since he hasn't been in any games recently. That said, I think Fire Emblem ends up being pretty clear cut. Obviously, Marth gets his spot like he has since Melee. Ike survives to see a second game thanks to his enduring popularity and the fact that his character is still pushed in the games (one of Awakening's free DLC missions has you recruit a descendant of his that wields Ragnell). Awakening then gets a nod as the most important Fire Emblem yet, and as noted above, I think Lucina comes out on top for that spot. Finally, Roy's clone moveset won't be enough to get him on the disc, but if Sakurai's up for DLC, he seems a shoo-in for DLC given his popularity. Maybe I'm assuming too much, but it feels like Lucina's got a pretty good chance of making into SSB4. Here's hoping!

Want - 100% - She's not Isaac, but she's still an immensely exciting character should she make the cut, as I'd hope any Awakening fan would agree.

Roy Prediction - 62%
He'll have doubters, but he'll have quite a few fanboys who are convinced he's going to make his glorious return. He's going to end up with a rather inflated rating as a result, I think.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Starbound]

Lucina: 50%
If Sakurai does ask IS what Fire Emblem characters to put in again, I expect 50/50 Chrom vs Lucina.

Want: 95%
Love the character

Nomz: Sylveon x5

Predicting 38.49% for Roy

 

[Arcanir]

Chance-20%. A popular character but I don't think that's enough considering she's outdone in role by Chrom and Robin.

Want-60% She's a character I liked in Awakening and I wouldn't mind seeing her in the game.

 

[kikaru]

Lucina: 30% Chance.

Want: 70%. Fire Emblem want formula: 60% baseline for a third FE representative. +10% Lucina.

Roy: 66%

Nominations: 2x Lyndis, 3x Sylveon.

 

[TheCreator]

Lucina: 5% No chance over chrom.
Want: 2% I would be upset if she made it over Ike, Roy, or Chrom.

2x Tingle
3x Dillon

 

[NickerBocker]

Lucina chance: 10%
Theres alot of better choices to be made, and shes part of a long list for getting in. Roy will be rated higher because of stronger fanbase, and Chrom will be rated higher because of the recent game.

Want: 25%
I wouldnt really care if she made it in, but FE should bring in more diversity

Roy: 45%

Nominations:

Rayman x5

 

[---]

Lucina - 5%
Want - 50%
+ More popular than her competition
+ Fairly well received
- Is more or less a female version of Marth (especially when she wears her mask)
- Is under Chrom on the Lord totem pole in FE13
- Wields the same weapon and has a similar fighting style as Marth

I'd take her over Chrom any day, but she literally screams alternate costume with her "Marth" disguise.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'm shocked at how many people are giving Lucina moderately high scores.

You people think she's more likely than Chrom or Roy?

 

[PlayerOneTyler]

Lucina

Likeliness: 36.5% She's popular, but that's all she's got going for her. She's pretty similar to Marth, and Chrom would probably be the Awakening rep.

Want: 80% I really like her, but I really like Marth. I feel like she'll replace Marth if she's in, but I doubt that'll happen, since Marth is like the Fire Emblem icon.

Roy Prediction: 15.4%

Nomination: Toad x5

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 10% - This is me being generous. Lucina is a secondary character in Awakening, completely overshadowed by Chrom, the only character worth discussing chances-wise from FE13. She's such a total Marth clone that even in the game she features in, one of her two primary character traits (the other being major spoilers) is simply pretending to be Marth for about half the game. At absolute best, she'll be a trophy, maybe an Assist Trophy, or an Alt Costume for Marth. And even then, it's more likely, IMO, that Marth will simply take on the disguise she uses instead of having the character herself as an alt. The only reason we're even discussing her at this point is because she's just the latest in a line of Fire Emblem waifus that people latch on to because she's "kawaii desu help me husbando fight for my honor". The same thing happened with Lyn and Micaiah in previous games, and despite some people still desperately clinging to Lyn for god knows why, the phase will pass, just it mostly did for the two of them.

Want: 0%, 0.1%, or 1%, whichever is the smallest one that is allowed by the rules. She was literally created for the purpose of the Marth-looks-like-a-girl joke, and she's by far outprioritized by the only three FE characters that stand a chance at all, Chrom, Ike and Roy, all of whom will most likely make the roster at some point, if not by being on the initial list, then by being DLC. If this comes across as grumpy or grouchy, that's because it is. I'm pretty sick and tired of Fire Emblem waifu-ing going on every goddamn time speculation for Smash Bros. happens. There was enough of it with Lyn pre-Brawl and I figured her getting being an AT was generous as is, but it seems like it's still not died out. Ah well, only one-ish more year till it dies off for a while again.

Roy Prediction: 59% - Now here's a much better character choice. Popular for reasons other than "kawaii desu" and already has a Smash appearance under his belt to boot, plus a planned return for Brawl, and Sakurai expressing regret at cutting him. I'd be surprised at this point if he didn't show up, at the very least as DLC. However people consistently underestimate him, so I'm putting him lower than he ought to be.

Nominations
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[Erimir]

A note on the prediction game: Ideally, you should not assign extra nominations only to the people who predicted the same thing (with more for the first nominator). If person A predicts 60%, B predicts 60.1% and C predicts 59.9%, then B and C have prevented person A from having practically any chance of winning. Instead I think you should simply have a cut off point. You could do that whoever predicted the closest and predicted that score first gets 5 extra noms, and then whoever else gets within 1% gets 4 extra noms. If nobody was within 1%, simply increase the cut off to 2%, 3% and so forth and assign the same way. I realize that's more work, just pointing out that it's more fair to do it that way, imo.

Lucina

Popularity: As far as FE characters go, she seems to be below Roy and Chrom, but higher than the other possibilities.

Relevancy: She is one of the main characters in the most recent and highest selling FE game.

Design: She seems pretty similar to Marth in both moves and appearance. Of course, all the Fire Emblem characters seem pretty similar to me. They seem to have a thing where all their main characters have to wield a sword. This is a pretty common thing in RPGs, but it's not always true. If they stick to giving all FE characters Counter as their down B, that makes them even more boring.

I don't really know about what else differentiates the FE characters, but since she imitates Marth I assume she's less unique than Roy (fire-based attacks) and Ike, and probably less than Chrom as well.

Roster considerations: She'd add another female. She'd complement Marth by making him look more masculine, maybe. Except she'd also look fairly similar, which is not good.

However, while I think a third FE rep is quite possible, I highly doubt we'd see a fourth (I also wouldn't want there to be four of them. They'd be even worse than the spacies at that point.). Particularly a fourth standard sword wielder. Which leads into...

Competition: She's got competition from Roy, who is more desired by Smash fans, and Chrom, who is the main character from her game. They apparently don't plan on cutting anybody yet, so that means Ike will probably not be making room for more new FE reps.

Lucina chances: 5%
I'm not an FE expert, so I'm just going based off sentiment... Roy seems to be definitely the most popular among Smash fans, and still popular for FE itself. Chrom seems more popular than Lucina among Smash fans. She's also too similar to Marth (and she will not be replacing Marth). She is partially aided by being female and seems to be the most obvious choice after Roy and Chrom.

Lucina want: 30%
(50% is indifference) I don't really want more sword-wielding FE lords with down-B Counter in the first place. Her score would be lower but I gave her points for being female. The only FE reps I will give more than 50% are ones that seem substantially different in their move set potential.

Roy prediction: 54%
He's near the top for Smash fan wants, and he's decently popular among the FE crowd. Sakurai probably regrets cutting him. People will think he has a decent chance of returning, but that he still has a good chance of being passed over for a newcomer.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[jaytalks]

Taking myself out of the game. I apologize for my double post.
Lucina
Likelihood: 55%.
I would usually say half but I'm feeling good today. Lucina is not a Marth clone in her fighting style, outfit, or any other means. She has a two handed style that incorporates stabbing. Her outfit is a homage to the Marth's, but has a number of differences. Marth's redesign was made to look like her, because much like all the other lords as spotpass characters, he used her model rather than getting her own. Whenever given the chance, Nintendo and IS make her the face of the game (as she is on the cover of both the artbook and soundtrack). She also happens to be a strong badass female protagonist, which Smash sorely needs. All we have now is one of those (two versions), two damsel in distresses (most of the time), a sidekick who dies when the leader does, a female pokemon, and a manequin like training simulator.

And the smash series representation has never been strictly a popularity contest, so let's stop treating predictions as such.

Want: 100%.

I really enjoy the character in her game. She is my favorite lord in the FE series, and I have played all FE games released in the West. I think she can also bring a different style of fighting to the game. If you think Lucina is just a Marth clone, then I suggest you play Fire Emblem: Awakening. It's a great game, and she is one of the great characters from the game. Many of the people who have played Awakening appear to enjoy the character, so I suggest you play the game before judging a character's design, playstyle, and storyline.

Roy Prediction: 57.32%

Nominations: Waluigi x5

Note: Can we link this to the corresponding Gamefaqs thread?

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Lucina:

Chance: 78%
It may seem a bit high but I'm pretty sure there's going to be at least one FE:A rep, with a notable chance of two for the first time in FE Smash history, as such it's gotta be fairly high above 50%. Lucina gets a little higher than Chrom in my opinion for a few reasons, the first of which being her gender. It seems a little sexist but we've seen 3 male FE reps and suddenly we have a kick ass main character female rep who's in the most relevant and popular game at the time. She'd also be more easily recognisable next to Marth (Chrom's quite different, but not as much as long haired Lucina, despite the closer similarity in clothing). Then comes her poster girl image for the game since the release (art books, OST etc.) Now I don't know how Sakurai feels, but Lucina just seems the higher priority for FE:A to me.. Plus of course, "I challenge my fate!" would be the new "I fight for my friends", and sound a lot cooler.

Want: 100%
I want both Lucina and Chrom, but Lucina more.


Roy Prediction: 57.65%
I think a lot of people want him back, I am sadly not part of that crowd.


EDIT:
Nominations:
Slime (Dragon Quest) *4
Miku Hinasaki (Fatal Frame/Zero) *1

 

[Starbound]

You can remove any nominations for Olimar, since he's confirmed now.

http://www.smashbros.com/us/characters/pikmin.html

 

[FalKoopa]

Lucina:
Chance: 6%
Her chances are kind of non-existent, unfortunately. Chrom and Roy seem far more likely than her. And even Lyn is ahead of her on Shortie's poll.

Want: 40%
I haven't played Awakening yet, so I'm rather indifferent to her inclusion. While I have read about her on wikis and such (and spoiled myself, unfortunately), she doesn't pique my interest as a Smash Bros. character.

Roy prediction: 65%
I think I'm being overly optimistic. xD

Nominations:
Lyn x 5

Paper Mario fell a bit flat in the ratings yesterday.

I see what you did there.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lucina:

Likelihood: 15% - She's under the boot of both Chrom and Roy, and I'm doubting that FE will even get 4 characters, so her chances are minimal.

Want: 10% - Not really interested in the slightest.

Roy Prediction: 63%

Nominations:
5x Ike

Also, wow at GameFAQs actually voting more positively on Paper Mario than us, on every other character they've had the negative opinions.

 

[Ephecus]

Lucina
Chance: 20 %
The return of Marth and Ike is high likely and even Roy might make a comeback. That leaves FE for max. 1 (or 2 in case Roy won't come back, which is unlikely) extra slot, which can be either taken by Chrom, Lucina or Robin. Given that Chrom and Lucina are similar in appearance and fighting style one can not join in if the other is already in and Chrom seems more likely.

Want: 20 %
I actually prefer Lucina to Chrom because Chrom is a pretty generic lord. That said I cannot imagine that her own moveset would be that original or at least not semi-cloned of Marth.

Roy: 64 %
I am pretty sure he will return and it seems many think alike.

Nominations:
Jigglypuff x5

 

[TumblrFamous]

Lucina's chance: 34%
She is in the running with Roy and Chrom. She has the least likely chance out of the three, but its fair game.

Want: 60%
I'll be fine with her in, but I wont sob uncontrollably if she doesn't make it. I would live.

Roy: 56%
Some people REALLY want him back, some aren't keen on the idea.

Nominations:
Tetra/ Toon Zelda x5

Sidenote: yay! Olimar has been announced! More characters to come!

 

[Reznor]

Lucina
Chance- 30%
Chrom just seems more likely

want- 50%
I really don't care

Roy- 40%

Nominations:
Waluigi x5

 

[Opossum]

Lucina time.

Want: 35%
She's pretty cool. I won't lie. But I'd much rather have Marth, Ike, Roy, and Chrom before her.

Likelihood: 5%
The above four are far more likely, so I don't think it bodes well for her chances.

Predicting a 64% for Roy.

Nominating Ice Climbers x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Lucina: 5% Don't see her over Roy or Chrom
Want: 60% I prefer her to Chrom
Roy: 66%
Nominate:
Lucas x 2
Lucario x 1
Lyn x 2

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Lucina: 15% I feel she doesn't have as much of a chance compared to Roy and Chrom
Want: 10% I'd much rather see Ike or Roy return. Roy's our boy!

Roy: 60%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Xenigma]

I'm shocked at how many people are giving Lucina moderately high scores.

You people think she's more likely than Chrom or Roy?

Easily more than Roy, who is DLC material unless FE inexplicably gets four characters on disc. Chrom's trickier as the other frontrunner for a likely Awakening spot, but I like to think she gets the edge thanks to post-release popularity and simply adding more diversity to Smash than Chrom, who is super redundant to Marth and Ike. Seems to me she has a solid case for inclusion compared to other FE frontrunners, enough to merit a decent rating here.

 

[Alban712]

Lucina:
Likelihood: 25%
Want: 65%

Roy's prediction: 62,3%

Nominations:
Lucas x 5

 

[Nitro21]

Lucina:

Likelihood: 20% I don't see her getting in over Chrom.
Want: 40% She is alright not someone that I am dying to see in.

Roy: 50%

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Lucina: 15% Chance.

Want: 10%.

I haven't really play Awakenings yet, so I can't comment on her character's background. However, she would be a clone of Marth and that decreases her chances. If anything, I can see her as AT

Roy: 40%

Nominations: Lucario x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

Lucina: 15% Chance.

Want: 10%.

I haven't really play Awakenings yet, so I can't comment on her character's background. However, she would be a clone of Marth and that decreases her chances. If anything, I can see her as AT

Roy: 40%

Nominations: Lucario x5

The only thing about these arguments that annoys me is that Lucina is dismissed as a Marth clone. Because it is APPARENTLY physically impossible for Sakurai to make her unique XD

 

[BKupa666]

I want to preface this rating by retroactively shaming everyone who did not vote for Olimar to forego our judgment in Rate Their Chances (and preemptively shame those who did not vote Marth and Ganondorf, but that's for later). Ah well, there's not that much difference between, say, 92.23% and 100% anyways.

Lucina

Likehood - 10%
Olimar's reveal should remove any doubt that the faces of franchises will return and not be replaced by similar characters who can feasibly inherit their movesets. Not that I was really expecting it to occur between her and Marth anyways, since Marth is a two-game veteran and was shown on the Smash team's whiteboard drawing, but Alpha Olimar seals the deal here. Anyways, Roy outranks any Awakening newcomer in terms of fan demand, and Chrom is far and away the more expected of Awakening newcomers, having filled this role ever since he was first revealed in Japan and called 'Krom' here in the West.

Want - 5%
I actually enjoy Marth's moveset and find Lucina inoffensive, if dull. This has little to do with her character and everything to do with the slippery slope the fanbase will begin progressing down if she's confirmed. "LUCINA IS IN THE GAME...ONE FEMALE FIRE EMBLEM CHARACTER DOWN, TEN DOZEN LESS IMPORTANT ONES TO GO." I want to gag myself with a chainsaw just imagining such excruciating fanwankery.

Roy Prediction - 65.5%
The fans of every other Fire Emblem newcomer are likely to vote him down, whereas those who know how strongly he's demanded and how close he was to getting in Brawl will vote him more highly, balancing things out.

Nominate Ganondorf x5

 

[TheCreator]

Forgot my Roy prediction: 47%

 

[Groose]

The only thing about these arguments that annoys me is that Lucina is dismissed as a Marth clone. Because it is APPARENTLY physically impossible for Sakurai to make her unique XD

Lucina is often compared to Marth even in the canon. I believe she even has a Marth costume at one point. While she definitely has enough movepool to create a unique moveset, it would be easier to make her a Marth clone than to give her a new moveset.

 

[Chauzu]

I refrain from Lucina. I have too little info on the new FE and FE in general. Going to play Awakening later this summer I think though, would be my first game in the series.

Roy

Prediction: 57%

Nominations

Takamaru x3
Scrooge McDuck
Phoenix Wright

 

[Groose]

I refrain from Lucina. I have too little info on the new FE and FE in general. Going to play Awakening later this summer I think though, would be my first game in the series.

Roy

Prediction: 57%

Nominations

Takamaru x3
Scrooge McDuck
Phoenix Wright

I appreciate the honesty. It really makes things a bit more accurate if we all know what we're talking about. Even so, feel free to vote on Roy tomorrow; his main plus is his appearance in Melee.

Lucina: 5%
Want: 25%

Roy prediction: 36%

Nominations: x5 waddle deeeeeeeeeeeeeeee (like always... am I the ONLY one voting on him?)

Here, I believe so. However, there is another person on Gamefaqs calling for him, so that helps your cause.

Unlike me, who is the only Tingle voter here.

I want to preface this rating by retroactively shaming everyone who did not vote for Olimar to forego our judgment in Rate Their Chances (and preemptively shame those who did not vote Marth and Ganondorf, but that's for later). Ah well, there's not that much difference between, say, 92.23% and 100% anyways.

While there was no doubt in my mind that they would TRY to put him in, I was somewhat concerned about the issues they were having with the 3DS version. As such, I refrained from considering him absolutely, 100% obvious; he would have been in the 90% range had I decided on his likelihood.

Note: Can we link this to the corresponding Gamefaqs thread?

Done.

 

[Groose]

Lucina's Chances: 10% The Fire Emblem situation is a bit tricky right now. I predict that there will be three roster spots available; one is guaranteed for Marth. The second is probably reserved for Ike, but this isn't completely definite. The third spot is basically a competition of Chrom vs. Roy; while Roy has popularity, Chrom has relevancy and a lot of Awakening fans behind him.

In short, I just don't see much room for Lucina to maneuver here. Her best hope is getting in as a Marth clone; they are often compared in the canon and she does have a good deal of popularity. Even so, I just doubt this will happen.

Lucina Want: 20% I'm not a big Fire Emblem fan, and I don't think she really deserves it, especially if she becomes a clone. I'd rather see the return of Ike or Roy or even the likes of Chrom before Lucina. The one boost she has for me is that she seems to be a type of character I play as---agile, moderately powerful, decent but not overwhelming learning curve.

Roy's Prediction: 33% I just don't see people predicting him to do well. He has fans, but even they seem to be hesitant about his odds.

Nominate: Tingle x5! Kooloo-Limpah!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lucina Chances: 20% I honestly think Chrom could make it.

Lucina Want: 60% I hadn'yt finished FE:A to really understand her.

Roy Prediction: 55.5% I hope it's only Chrom as the newcomer.

Nominate: Tom Nook x5

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Lucina​

​

Likelihood = 50% - There's a Awakening stage in the game and she's very popular in her game. I think she would be a great addition along side with Chrom.​

​

Want = 100% - Unless this a Lucas dilemma, she can replace Marth. Which will make me a happy man. ​

​

Roy's Prediction = 50% - His chances are about the same as in Brawl( If not higher.).​

​

Nominate: Eirkia x5​

 

[Xenigma]

Lucina is often compared to Marth even in the canon. I believe she even has a Marth costume at one point. While she definitely has enough movepool to create a unique moveset, it would be easier to make her a Marth clone than to give her a new moveset.

Only to the degree she disguises herself as Marth in an attempt to minimize her impact during her time-traveling quest. It's not like anyone in the Awakening timeline could tell otherwise. In truth, she actually fights like Chrom, considering that he taught her his techniques and that she uses his exact same sword, and their support conversations imply she's a better fighter overall. Not that she couldn't be a Marth clone in Smash, but both Chrom and her could easily be made unique assuming Sakurai wants to avoid clones where able.

 

[3Bismyname]

Only to the degree she disguises herself as Marth in an attempt to minimize her impact during her time-traveling quest.
t

can i just say how dumb that sounds. like im not trying to be rude or anything but she travelled back in time and impersonated a guy who was supposed to be dead for what 1,000 years. in yet she wants to minimize her impact on the timeline? again im not trying to be rude it just makes such little sense if u think about it