Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

It's obivous you don't want isaac but that's no reason to give a character who has been pretty heavily requested a 0%.

I propose Elite Gaymer stops giving no differentiation between want and chance.

Like said by colder_then_ice it's my vote and I could do whatever I want. Seriously I can give Isaac a 0% and not really care. It doesn't matter if he's requested he's still nothing more then an assist like starfy.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Like said by colder_then_ice it's my vote and I could do whatever I want. Seriously I can give Isaac a 0% and not really care. It doesn't matter if he's requested he's still nothing more then an assist like starfy.

You'll eat your words if he gets confirmed. Listen to lonkonwolf, He knows what he's talking about.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

You'll eat your words if he gets confirmed. Listen to lonkonwolf, He knows what he's talking about.

by that you mean my little post yesterday or by my rating today?

oh and you forgot the e in lon'e'konwolf, i'm nitpicky

 

[Louie G.]

MUDDY MOLE:

Chance: 25%
I've been thinking about Muddy's chances ever since I first nominated him, and quite frankly they are better than I first thought. Mole Mania was released in the East AND West, unlike Takamaru and Lip, arguably his main competition. Also, we don't have a Game Boy retro yet, and to be honest I find Muddy WAY more interesting and plausible than Prince Sable. Sorry Blue. That being said, he isn't as well known or supported as Takamaru or Lip, but hey, Sakurai loves digging up long lost characters. (Get it? Digging? ) Not to mention his extremely unique digging mechanic. That kind of character would translate really well into Smash, and is something I expect sometime down the line. Hopefully with Muddy.

Want: 100%
Mole Mania is a great and charming game that I should really play more often. Muddy is possibly my most supported retro character due to his digging ability. Man, I REALLY want to see a digging character in Smash, and Muddy is the one that makes the most sense and is likely the one I would enjoy the most.

ISAAC:

Chance: 20%
Isaac has less of a chance than MUDDY MOLE? Yeah.
...
I'm kind of surprised too, but I like this number, so I'll explain.
Isaac is from a long dormant franchise that now has a new protagonist. Funny enough, they kind of kicked Isaac to the curb by making him grow up and saying that his adventures were basically prologues to Matthew's future endeavors. Although this is the case, if Sakurai decides that a Golden Sun character should be added it will in fact be Isaac. Now I think that Golden Sun should get more representation, but I think it may be too late for poor Isaac. Brawl was the perfect time to add Isaac: a popular character, Golden Sun being a new IP, moveset potential seeping out of him. Unfortunately Golden Sun is somewhat forgotten now, and Isaac's popularity has decreased and frankly there are better IPs to add at the moment. He's still got tons of potential though. Too bad he ended up an assist trophy, but if we see him again I feel like he will be reprising that role.

Want: 95%
Isaac would be a great addition to Smash Bros. Representation for a new series (to Smash Bros that is) and lots of moveset potential. I'd be very happy to see him.

Micaiah: 1.65%
Not an Awakening character, Roy, or Lyn. So that hurts her significantly.

Noms: 6 Mario Characters x5

Oh contraire, it is YOU who is being unfair. Rating Muddy a 3% to balance out the ratings, just so he doesn't beat out your precious Sable by too many points.
You may have gotten away with it if it weren't for this meddling kid.

 

[Morbi]

Isaac Chance: 33%
Isaac Want: 5%

I have gotten so lazy at this game.

 

[Gunla]

Muddy Mole
ABSTAIN
I'm abstaining from Muddy Mole. Out of respect for many users here, I've decided that I haven't done enough research and playing of the games he's in. I haven't really played much of his series, and without it, no way in hell I'm getting a good rating. Set a want for 25%- Neutral.

Issac, Not Binded.
Pros!
+Popular character from a well known series on GB and DS
+AT status is like the Colbert Bump of Smash Bros. It's helpful, but it's not a definite truth. Furthermore, it shows that Sakurai has acknowledged Issac before.
+Potentially Unique Moveset
Cons!
-Competition? Well, in terms of competition, there isn't really much. Many argue that Shulk and Issac are foes in the slot battles, but this isn't exactly true. Yes, they are comparable in terms, but in all honesty, it's comparing apples to oranges. Seriously, why are they suddenly comparable? While their blondness is suddenly a comparable trait, it's weird.

Overall... I think he has a very decent shot as one of the more likely newcomers. 40%.

Want: 50%- I'd like him, but I'm rather neutral.

Mica-NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
.85%. Please, dear god no, not more Fire Emblem...

Who gets my Nominations Today?
I dunno, with Ike X5-Once again, @ Groose , I'd rather it be possible we vote on Ike? Because he's close enough to shoo-in status at this point...

 

[YoshiandToad]

Like said by colder_then_ice it's my vote and I could do whatever I want. Seriously I can give Isaac a 0% and not really care. It doesn't matter if he's requested he's still nothing more then an assist like starfy.

0% away all you like for want, that is after all completely your choice. 100% away if you really like a character, that's your choice too.

0% away for chance and it won't be counted. No character truly has a 0% chance unless they're obscenely obscure and 3rd party. 0.1% however is acceptable if you think they're really doomed.

Unless the characters is a lock I'd advise against voting 100% in chance too, as it is highly unlikely to be counter either. Locks aren't generally voted on here anyway so 100% Chance scores don't happen(how can anyone be 100% certain a newcomer will come in without inside knowledge after all?)

Regardless of this post, and the aggressive postings of others, please enjoy the game!

 

[Louie G.]

I dunno, with Ike X5-Once again, @ Groose , I'd rather it be possible we vote on Ike? Because he's close enough to shoo-in status at this point...

It's not likely that Ike gets cut, but he sure ain't a shoo-in.

 

[Pacack]

I'm honestly kinda surprised to see Isaac scoring so high.

 

[Opossum]

Oh yeah, forgot about Isaac's revote.

Want: 30% Rather Neutral! :D

Chance: 20%
I honestly don't see him as too likely nowadays. Popularity's been waning, and what little he has left is pretty much exclusively Western (and not nearly to the extent of Mac or Ridley), and his series has been at a bit of a lowpoint, so to speak. Basically, if the first two didn't get Isaac in Brawl, I doubt Dark Dawn would do it for SSB4, considering Isaac's not nearly as major in it.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Mole: 7.5%
Want: 50%
Isaac: 25%
Want: 50%
Micaiah: 2.75%
YARNE OWAIN x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Oh contraire, it is YOU who is being unfair. Rating Muddy a 3% to balance out the ratings, just so he doesn't beat out your precious Sable by too many points.
You may have gotten away with it if it weren't for this meddling kid.

I knew this was going to happen.
Changed to a 15%. You got me.
Definitely not gonna do that again..

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

You'll eat your words if he gets confirmed. Listen to lonkonwolf, He knows what he's talking about.

I'm having a field day cause I know he won't be in. He has so much competition it's not even funny. His series is pretty much on life support. Newer gen kids don't even know who he is.
Chrome
Ridley
Palutena
Mii
PAC man
King k rool
Dixie kong
Some obscure retro
Lil Mac
Krystal
Mewtwo
Shulk

Ya I can't see issac getting in before any of these to be honest.

If he magically makes it in id be shocked but I honestly wouldn't care. He would most likely be my new punching bag anyways. So in the end we both win.

But then again he isn't really cared for in japan. So that's another bruise on his chances

 

[Pacack]

I'm having a field day cause I know he won't be in. He has so much competition it's not even funny. His series is pretty much on life support. Newer gen kids don't even know who he is.
Chrome
Ridley
Palutena
Mii
PAC man
King k rool
Dixie kong
Some obscure retro
Lil Mac
Krystal
Mewtwo
Shulk

Ya I can't see issac getting in before any of these to be honest.

If he magically makes it in id be shocked but I honestly wouldn't care. He would most likely be my new punching bag anyways. So in the end we both win.

But then again he isn't really cared for in japan. So that's another bruise on his chances

If that's how you feel, it's okay to give a low rating.

But a 0% rating is only used when the chances of the character are less than 0.001%

Just keep that in mind when you're rating in the future.

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

If that's how you feel, it's okay to give a low rating.

But a 0% rating is only used when the chances of the character are less than 0.001%

Just keep that in mind when you're rating in the future.

I gave him a 5% instead

 

[Pacack]

I gave him a 5% instead

That's okay, then.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I'm having a field day cause I know he won't be in. He has so much competition it's not even funny. His series is pretty much on life support. Newer gen kids don't even know who he is.


Ya I can't see issac getting in before any of these to be honest.

If he magically makes it in if be shocked but I honestly wouldn't care. He would most likely be my new punching bag anyways. So in the end we both win.

But then again he isn't really cared for in japan. So that's another bruise on his chances

Still, Sakurai DID acknowledge him in Brawl, so he has that going for him.

My rundown on those:
Chrome (Google Chrome? - Chrom, being a new character, has that going for him. But I don't think, in the end, he'll get much more than cameo/trophy status. Because Ike is more unique, and Marth is veteran, I doubt FE will even get three this time around. Sakurai's looking for uniqueness,and Chrom would be just another sword user.
Ridley - Sakurai has stated time and again, He's too big and while WE know that's not true (See: Olimar), he's not likely to get in because of this, and the likelihood of being PyroSphere's hazard.
Palutena - Sakurai is lucky, as Pit got a revival in Uprising. But, she is rather large herself, and she is one character who might be good in Smash.... or might end up being the Sandbag imitator.
Mii - This one I believe will make it in.
Pac-man - This one I believe will make it in.
King K. Rool - I'm not so sure on K. Rool, becuase I don't think he's popular in Japan, and because I think Rare might cause problems. Plus he's not been in anything for a while, Sakurai may think he's no longer important to the series.
Dixie Kong - I think she'll be in due to Tropical Freeze and cut from Brawl.
Some obscure retro - I'm just gonna say Takamaru has the best chance of these. He's popular in both sides of our world, and he's had multiple revivals.
Little Mac - In no way a shoo-in, but popular nonetheless. Also AN ASSIST IN BRAWL, which would boost Isaac as well.
Krystal - Yes, Sakurai LOVES Starfox, but I don't think it will get repped any further with the limited newcomer slots.
Mewtwo - I believe he will be in.
Shulk - I dunno about Shulk. I support him, but he's not too popular in Japan and has only had 1 game. Being made 2 years after Brawl and 3 before Smash 4 sticks him in the middle.

 

[Deleted member]

King K. Rool - I'm not so sure on K. Rool, becuase I don't think he's popular in Japan, and because I think Rare might cause problems. Plus he's not been in anything for a while, Sakurai may think he's no longer important to the series.

Shulk - I dunno about Shulk. I support him, but he's not too popular in Japan and has only had 1 game. Being made 2 years after Brawl and 3 before Smash 4 sticks him in the middle.

2 things:
1. King K. Rool isn't owned by Rare! He is a Nintendo owned character. If he wasn't, then he wouldn't have gotten in Mario Super Sluggers. While his lack of appearances in DKCR and Tropical Freeze is a detriment, he has the same amount of chance as Dixie Kong as a lot of people still want King K. Rool and the Kremlings to return.
2. According to Chrono, King K. Rool and Shulk are two characters that Japan wants. In fact, Shulk is their most wanted character from an un-reped series in Smash.

 

[BluePikmin11]

No Nintendo character should ever get a zero if it's the main character or major side character of the franchise or game. They are the very least eligible.

 

[Dinoman96]

Palutena - Sakurai is lucky, as Pit got a revival in Uprising. But, she is rather large herself, and she is one character who might be good in Smash.... or might end up being the Sandbag imitator.

Um...the times we see her in physical form in Uprising (And her appearences in SSE and the first two games) that's only a tad bit taller than Pit. She's only "big" when she makes a projection of herself (While Medusa and Hades actually are probably big).

 

[Capybara Gaming]

When is dat Groose gettin' loose?

C'mon, buddy!

 

[LoneKonWolf]

When is dat Groose gettin' loose?

C'mon, buddy!

I'll warn you in advance: this day will run until Wednesday. I'm incredibly busy this week, and am trying my best to update regularly. At worst, you may have to settle for every other day for a week or two. I'm also considering a time of day change for updates. Obviously it's not between 4-6 PM EST right now.

he's not coming out till Wednesday

 

[Capybara Gaming]

he's not coming out till Wednesday

'twas a sarcastic comment, mate.

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Muddy Mole:

Want: 10%
Chance: 5%

Issac:

Want: 35% I haven't played Golden Sun yet, but at the moment I'm more of a Shulk supporter.
Chance: 45%

Renominations:

Shulk X 5

 

[Groose]

As I mentioned before, I'm not updating today. I'm only here for about five minutes, and that is a pleasant surprise for me. Don't worry: I have something special planned for the day tomorrow.

Who gets my Nominations Today?
I dunno, with Ike X5-Once again, @ Groose , I'd rather it be possible we vote on Ike? Because he's close enough to shoo-in status at this point...

I'd argue against you on that one. Is he probable? Of course. Is he highly likely? Debatable. Is he a shoo-in? I'd give that a big no. I would hold a poll to see what the majority of the community thinks right now, but I can't on the new site, and it is my inkling that he wouldn't get the majority needed to add him to the banlist. I think Louie G. said it nicely:

It's not likely that Ike gets cut, but he sure ain't a shoo-in.

Also...

he's not coming out till Wednesday

Thanks for the help. I don't even have to answer any questions or anything because you guys do it all for me; the community is that good.

Still, Sakurai DID acknowledge him in Brawl, so he has that going for him.

My rundown on those:
Chrome (Google Chrome? - Chrom, being a new character, has that going for him. But I don't think, in the end, he'll get much more than cameo/trophy status. Because Ike is more unique, and Marth is veteran, I doubt FE will even get three this time around. Sakurai's looking for uniqueness,and Chrom would be just another sword user.
Ridley - Sakurai has stated time and again, He's too big and while WE know that's not true (See: Olimar), he's not likely to get in because of this, and the likelihood of being PyroSphere's hazard.
Palutena - Sakurai is lucky, as Pit got a revival in Uprising. But, she is rather large herself, and she is one character who might be good in Smash.... or might end up being the Sandbag imitator.
Mii - This one I believe will make it in.
Pac-man - This one I believe will make it in.
King K. Rool - I'm not so sure on K. Rool, becuase I don't think he's popular in Japan, and because I think Rare might cause problems. Plus he's not been in anything for a while, Sakurai may think he's no longer important to the series.
Dixie Kong - I think she'll be in due to Tropical Freeze and cut from Brawl.
Some obscure retro - I'm just gonna say Takamaru has the best chance of these. He's popular in both sides of our world, and he's had multiple revivals.
Little Mac - In no way a shoo-in, but popular nonetheless. Also AN ASSIST IN BRAWL, which would boost Isaac as well.
Krystal - Yes, Sakurai LOVES Starfox, but I don't think it will get repped any further with the limited newcomer slots.
Mewtwo - I believe he will be in.
Shulk - I dunno about Shulk. I support him, but he's not too popular in Japan and has only had 1 game. Being made 2 years after Brawl and 3 before Smash 4 sticks him in the middle.

Ridley: Sakurai mentioned once that he was a bit big, but the team could include them if they put in their best efforts. I don't take this as the most positive quote, but I certainly don't take it as deconfirmation based on size.

K. Rool: Rare has no power over him, thank the heavens. He has some thorns in his side and he's a toss-up at this point, but man do I want him in.

Retro: Takamaru is the frontrunner, but there are a number of dark horses who could pull it off. At least, that's what I think.

Shulk: People in Japan are a bit higher on him than what you seem to believe, at least by my own research. I bow to Chrono with regards to Japanese knowledge, but I haven't quite seen as much Shulk support as he has, though.

The others I pretty much agree with.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

As I mentioned before, I'm not updating today. I'm only here for about five minutes, and that is a pleasant surprise for me. Don't worry: I have something special planned for the day tomorrow.

um. . . what pleasant surprise? nothing big been happening here, or at least nothing that should be surprising you mate

Also...

Thanks for the help. I don't even have to answer any questions or anything because you guys do it all for me; the community is that good.

ah no problem mate, and yes this community is good, better than any online community I've been too
and trust me I've been to a lot

 

[Gunla]

I'd argue against you on that one. Is he probable? Of course. Is he highly likely? Debatable. Is he a shoo-in? I'd give that a big no. I would hold a poll to see what the majority of the community thinks right now, but I can't on the new site, and it is my inkling that he wouldn't get the majority needed to add him to the banlist.

Ehh... you do have a point. He's a veteran who I don't see getting cut, but there's the small chance he's cut or replaced, which to myself still fathoms me. I'll take your point and step down. My apologies.

 

[NickerBocker]

The only characters I would consider shoo-ins are necessary veterans, and I'm certain others would be inclined to agree. Cpt Falcon, Jiggs, Diddy, you get the idea.

 

[Pacack]

The only characters I would consider shoo-ins are necessary veterans, and I'm certain others would be inclined to agree. Cpt Falcon, Jiggs, Diddy, you get the idea.

Eh, Jiggs still has the (slight) possibility of being cut. She's like 95% going to happen, but I could see her getting cut.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Moleman: 0.45%
Probably not too well known/popular in Japan, definitely not too popular abroad.
Want: 5%
Who nominated this guy?

Isaac: 19%
Despite being a former AT, he's got competition from his own series (I THINK, I'm not too familiar with Golden Sun).
Want: 48%
I like other possible newcomers more than him, honestly.

Micaiah prediction: 1.24%

Nominate:
Marina x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Eh, Jiggs still has the (slight) possibility of being cut. She's like 95% going to happen, but I could see her getting cut.

My point was only veterans should acquire the status of shoo-in, and even then there are few exempt from the chopping block. I suppose Jiggs is debatable, but I think being a 3 time veteran speaks for itself.

 

[Glaciacott]

Who's the girl next door, living in the haunted mansion?
Don't need to learn her name 'cause she's an AT!

Ashley disconfirmed and makes it as an assist trophy. For reference, we gave her 5.85%

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Who's the girl next door, living in the haunted mansion?
Don't need to learn her name 'cause she's an AT!

Ashley disconfirmed and makes it as an assist trophy. For reference, we gave her 5.85%

well, at least we got something right then

 

[Glaciacott]

It's a nice change of pace after 30%-chance Starfy being Assist Trophy and Rosalina having had half that chance becoming playable.

 

[FalKoopa]

Poor Ashley.

This will pave the way for PSAs though.

 

[Shorts]

I feel like we have a better chance of seeing Cranky before King K Rool.

 

[XStarWarriorX]

Poor Ashley.

This will pave the way for PSAs though.

inb4 the wii u is unhackable.

 

[Shorts]

She would have been cool playable, but at least she's an AT.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ridley - Sakurai has stated time and again, He's too big and while WE know that's not true (See: Olimar), he's not likely to get in because of this, and the likelihood of being PyroSphere's hazard.

Sakurai never commented on his size. He said Ridley would be impossible, followed by saying that he'd be possible if they put their best effort into it, and then said he'd be a slow character. He never mentioned anything regarding his size at all.

 

[Deleted member]

Ashley didn't seem to have a chance with a 5.85% chance. Though, some of your are OK with this as she got a 27.43% want. Ouch though, this is the first major disconfirmation of the year… sorry, Ashley fans.

I'm just glad something related to Wario got confirmed.