Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Capybara Gaming]

Zero Chance: 1% a.k.a. a bit more than zero!
It's not even a lock that he'd be the choice for a second Mega Man character, although he is the most likely. He's not legendary, and spots are limited. Besides, I think Sonic would get a second guy before him. Although... I don not subscribe to the "no two third-parties from the same company" rule.

Zero Want: 25%
I don't have too much attachment for him, and he would be a character from an existing series taking up a precious roster spot. But... he's a complete badass. How could I say no?

Robin Chance: 17.5%
Been there, done that. His/her uniqueness is his standout trait, putting him/her between Lucina and Chrom in chance. Even so, he/she suffers because Chrom and Lucina are more central to the image of the game.

By thew way... if he/she makes the cut, I'm guessing he/she will be called Tactician.

Robin Want: 75%
Maybe Chrom and/or Lucina would be unique. Even if they are, they probably wouldn't be too interesting, too different from what we already have. I like his/her design and see the potential for better gameplay. I fear getting a boring swordsman, and this is the surest way out of that situation, so I'll take it. Please note that if I ever play Awakening, my opinion will likely change; as of now, I assess these three characters based off of potential merit.

Muddy Mole Prediction: 7.89%
I'm noticing a trend: when people surge up the nominations list, they tend to have a lot of supporters to come in and boost their chances.

Dr. Mario Stage x5

DAY OVER

RETURN OF DA GROOSENATOR​

Eagerly Awaiting full results. Just like every day I do this, I eagerly await. I love this thread!

 

[Groose]

Zero (Mega Man)
1.29% chance
26.33% want
Well, Zero has higher than zero. And even though he did poorly, that fact alone probably made his day worthwhile.

Robin (Fire Emblem)
32.61% chance (previously 15.10% chance)
56.00% want (previously 38.90%)
WOW! Chrom got both his score slashed in his day, but Robin only went up. Robin may still be 12% behind Chrom on the chance charts, but he/she is now over 20% higher in want. So, who's next? Ike? Lucina? Yarne/Owain Team?

Today we're rating the long-awaited Muddy Mole, from the Game Boy classic Mole Mania. Please rate Muddy Mole in chance and want today. We're also having yet another rerate, this time of Rank 10 Isaac. Will this day see yet another great topple out of the top ten? Or will Isaac hold strong? Please rate Isaac in chance and want.

Tomorrow we're going to rate... Micaiah, of... you guessed it! Fire Emblem! Please predict how Micaiah will fare in tomorrow's game. TCT~Phantom wins the extra nominations today.

I'll warn you in advance: this day will run until Wednesday. I'm incredibly busy this week, and am trying my best to update regularly. At worst, you may have to settle for every other day for a week or two. I'm also considering a time of day change for updates. Obviously it's not between 4-6 PM EST right now.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Muddy Mole:
Chance: 6%. I don't see him happening, unfortunately.
Want: 100% - I would LOVE to see him as a retro.

Isaac:
Chance: 45% - I actually think he has a better chance being a new series, and one that was repped as an assist in Brawl.
Want: 100% - Wanted him since Brawl. Seems too cool.

Micaiah - 2.7. She's just not that relevant anymore. And I'm being generous again.

Noms:
Sora x3
Alexandra Roivas x1
Harry x1

WOOT FINALLY GOT FIRST POST OF DAY!

 

[colder_than_ice]

Muddy Mole
Chance: 13% - I do think he has great potential as a retro character, however it should be noted that Mole Mania didn't even get a sticker in Brawl. His chances are going to depend on whether Sakurai even acknowledges him as a possibility.
Want: 23% - I don't like him. His design reminds me too much of the dreaded Monty Moles.

Isaac
Chance: 39% - That's 20% lower than my original rating. Golden Sun has really started to fall behind other Nintendo RPGs as Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Xeno, Paper Mario, and Mario & Luigi are all dominating the market. Golden Sun is sadly left behind. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the more likely newcomers.
Want: 78% - That's 10% higher than my original rating. Seriously who wouldn't want Isaac?

Micaiah: 7.4%

Nominations: Dr. Mario stage x5

 

[Starcutter]

Mud mania: 15%
Want: 10% don't know what he does, but he also looks funny.

Isaac 60% not high not low.
Want: 100% all my yes

Noms
Stork x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Muddy Mole

Chance - 9.75% - I'd call this a good chance for a random retro. He's already revived some mention by Sakurai, joking that "he may already be in" one of the previous games. While it's not very conclusive proof of anything, it at least shows he is somewhat familiar with the character, which can be said to be better off than most retros. He's still relatively unique, though I'm inclined to believe that lack of a strong impression compared to many other retros brings him down quite a bit.

Want - 73% - I'd say somewhere around Dee's want. Muddy's got enough to stand out from a crowed, but other characters are a higher priority to me.


Issac (Wow, we haven't rated him sense day 4! Good thing I have had 100% attendance sense day one, I think...)

Chance - 45% - Admittedly, my thoughts on him have somewhat soured over time. I'd be more optimistic if his franchise ended on a more pleasant note, or if another game was coming out, but as of now I'm not sure if has what it takes. Fortunately, he still seems plenty unique enough that I'm not willing to discount him completely.

Want - 78% - A bit higher than last time. Due to the specialty in earth and plant magic (I'm sorry, Venus Psynergy), it becomes a bit easier to make a move set for him compared to The Tactician. He's what I wish he was, instead of just generic magic.


Micaiah prediction - 2.5% - Yeah, she doesn't quite seem to have what it takes to play with the big boys of Fire Emblem. I'm fairly certain Lyn and Anna look down upon her, even. She won't be doing well, that's for certain.

Nominations
Scrooge McDuck X5

 

[Deleted member]

Muddy Mole and Issac have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Issac before, look at what you said on his day!
Muddy Mole
Chance: 5%
I'll give him some benefit of being a popular character that was on the Game Boy. However, I just find that Takamaru just ruins his chances as he seems to be the most likely retro rep. Though, Sakurai can always go out of left field and include him over Takamaru.
Want: 80%
Why not? He would be a unique and fun addition.

Isaac
Chance: 35%
I have to say that this guy was overrated; Isaac, Ridley, Palutena, Snake, and Nintendog were overrated in my eyes.
Isaac is from the popular Golden Sun series… but it seems as though that series isn't being touched upon at all. After the last release in 2008, we haven't heard of Golden Sun get any mention at all. Camelot has also seemed to move on from Golden Sun and is now focusing on the Mario Gold and Tennis games.
If this was pre-Brawl, I would have given him 50% and not call him overrated. But… I think that an issue that Isaac has isn't a great fall, but rather someone who has risen, Shulk from Xenoblade. Shulk is like the modern day Isaac, but he has more going for him it seems with fan demand worldwide, a game that was demanded to come to the US, and even Sakurai acknowledging the game by posting a pic of the Monado on his Twitter. (for references sake, when we rate Shulk, I'm giving him around 65%-75%)
While these things are against Isaac's favor, there are things going for him. First off, he would represent an unrepresented part of Nintendo with the RPG genre. Second, I believe that Golden Sun is still a rather popular series. I am unsure about his fan demand in Japan (apparently Chrono says that the characters Japan wants that are from an un-reped series are Shulk and… Starfy), but he still has a considerable amount; if he didn't, then he wouldn't be an Assist Trophy. Finally, he has uniqueness. He can use sword attacks and all sorts of magic at his disposal to set him apart from the usual sword users in Smash.
Overall, Isaac hasn't fallen, but I think that Shulk has risen above him. Seeing as how Starfy became an Assist Trophy again and not having a stage to suggest that he could be in the game as a playable character (like Little Mac), I think that Isaac will most likely return as an Assist Trophy. I can just feel it happening.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, maybe Shulk and Isaac are not battling for a spot. They can easily co-exist on the roster, but I feel like that Shulk has a giant step up over Isaac.
Want: 50%
Indifference.
Isaac would be cool, but I want Shulk. BEHOLD THE POWER OF THE MONADO!

Mic- Fire Emblem Character #500 Prediction: 1.30%
Ugh…

Nominations: Bomberman 5x

One of the top ten posts on this thread. Reminds me of my "F-Zero is dead" post, but is 100% more epic!


Ja, I'll hotfix that. He should have about 55., actually, if memory serves.

Thanks! I was WAITING for Zero's day to do this! Also, thanks for fixing the Bomberman situation!
EDIT: Also, it's an honor that you said that post is one of the top ten of this thread!

 

[Opossum]

Muddy time! Woo!

Chance: I'll give him a generous 9.5% Retros are hard to pick, but I feel Muddy stands a chance if and only if Sakurai picks the retro like he did in Melee with the Ice Climbers: through pure gameplay potential.

Want: 100%
A digging mechanic, traps, semi-terraforming with a giant iron wrecking ball, cabbages, and a mole who killed the sun?

 

[XenothiumX]

Muddy Mole
Likelihood: 2%

Want: 5%

Issac
Likelihood: 35%
An assist trophy character whom I think presents great playable character material. Golden Sun did receive a new game on the DS after Brawl so that make the series relevant. I suppose another character could be chosen instead of Issac to represent Golden Sun, however, he was the main character in the first game and possibly the most recognizable character since he was the assist trophy in Brawl.

Want: 65%
I'm not too big on sword characters, however, Isaac does bring other abilities to the table. I certainly hope that they at least include more songs from Golden Sun.

Micaiah
Prediction: 3.2%

Nominations:
Slippy Toad x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Muddy Mole
Chances - 5%
It's kind of a long-shot, but as one of those classic Miyamoto characters it's possible he'd appear, even though the chances are not tremendously high. And with Sakurai looking at handheld games for 3DS stages, maybe he'll notice this series a bit more than he would otherwise.

Want - 80%
This would be a fantastic character in terms of moveset potential. I'm not a huge fan of his design, and even then I have to admit it'd fit in really well and make for a great character. Would definitely be happy with his inclusion.

Isaac
Chances - 18%
This is one of those characters I feel are grossly overestimated. The fact is that we don't really hear that much about Golden Sun recently, and when there are so many other series that have the attention and the sales and the character potential, I can't justify Isaac having such a gigantic chance. Maybe if Sakurai looks at pre-Brawl popularity he'll see Isaac having so much support ... I don't know, I'd really like to believe there's a universe in which a Golden Sun character is more likely, but I have to be realistic and give him a lower score than the character deserves given the time out of the spotlight.

Want - 75%
Isaac is not one of my top choices but it's one of those characters who make sense in the game, and it'd be nice to see him. I also feel his moveset could be reasonably unique. Perhaps it's the fact that other people want him more that make my want score lower, or the fact that everyone pretty much expecting him has made me a bit paranoid of wanting him that much. Since it's fairly possible he doesn't happen.

Prediction
Micaiah - 3.6%
... so I see the goal is to rate every Fire Emblem character ... @_@

Nominations
x5 Magnus

 

[Lukingordex]

Muddy Mole
Chances - 0%
.-.

Want - 2%
Maybe not the worst addition ever.

Isac
Chances - 5%
There's like 385705801985109 other options that would probably be more interesting for nintendo to put on smash as playable tham him.

Want - 30%
He's cool, but I also would like to see other characters instead.

 

[NickerBocker]

Muddy Mole
Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

Retros are a difficult situation. There are plenty of choices who all have a fairly good chance, but I have a feeling that Takamaru is the front runner when it comes to retros, due to his inclusion as a NintendoLand attraction. I wouldn't be against Muddy Mole's inclusion, but there aren't really any retros that excite me, with the exception of ExciteBiker (see what I did there?) I'm rating at a cool 50% because we are most likely getting a retro and I have grown to accept it, whoever it may be in the end. I'm rather indifferent.

Isaac
Chance: 30%
Want: 80%

My personal belief is that Isaac and Shulk are in competition for a newcomer slot, both being major JRPG characters. One being from a series that shows no evidence of coming back, the other a fresh face who is quite popular. There are other JRPG characters that have a chance as well, such as Paper Mario, but they collectively share a small chance. I would rate Isaac and Shulk very similar, because we are at a point where you can see one on the way out and the other coming in. If it was earlier, i would have given Isaac a higher rating, but as time passes with no sign of a GS game, his chances will only go down.

All that negativity, and i have to say that i am quite excited to see either Shulk or Isaac in this game. I havent played a whole Golden Sun game, but i can say that he could be pretty unique as both a caster and swordplay type character.

Micaiah: 2.4%

Nominations:
Ridley x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Muddy Mole Likelihood: 3.5%
Want: 45%

Isaac likelihood: 35%
Want: 80%

Micaiah: 6.85%

Wrestler x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Muddy Mole
25% Chance
As a retro, he stands out for his Handheld roots and his ties to Miyamota, as well as being a puzzle character. As a retro, I would put him behind only Takumaru and Mach Rider. However, Retros are hard to pinpoint save Takumaru, so he has that against him. I would say he is my 3rd choice as a retro, beating Lip and losing to Takumaru and the mach rider.
80% Want
Mole Mania is great. It honestly is an unsung classic, and for 4 bucks, it should be on your 3ds. Muddy promotes the game, and we could see a great tunnelling character.

Isaac
45% Chance
I feel Isaac has enough popularity and importance to get in. In terms of misc characters, only Shulk and Little Mac beat him out. However, with those two outprioritizing him, it is iffier to see 5 new Misc characters (villager, WFT, mac, shulk, and Isaac). However, it still is probable, and would be appreciated as a tribute to the GBA.
90% want
Oh hell yes. My 6th most wanted character atm, and one I really hope will be in to revive Golden Sun.

Noms go to a Mach Rider rerate, and if my math is right, that means x 10 to him.

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

Muddy Mole Likelihood: 10.5%
Want: 80%

Isaac likelihood: 0%
Want: 0%

Micaiah: 26.85%

Tony(earthbound) x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Muddy Mole Likelihood: 10.5%
Want: 80%

Isaac likelihood: 0%
Want: 0%

Micaiah: 26.85%

Tony(earthbound) x5

You don't seem to be getting it. No Nintendo character has a 0% chance aside from Confirmed not to exist characters.

 

[Pacack]

Muddy Mole:

Chance: 3%
I think he's possible, but I'd be surprised to see him over Takamaru or Lip.

Want: 11%
I'd also much rather have Takamaru or Lip (or Sukapon). I'd warm up to him eventually, but I just prefer the other retro candidates more.

Isaac:

Chance: 9.4%
I think people are really overestimating Isaac here. With our limited roster slots, he's not at all as likely as some people believe. He still has nearly a 1/10 chance of appearing though, simply due to his uniqueness.

Want: 25%
I like magic and swords, so I'd probably enjoy playing as him. However, I have no attachment to the character and I don't particularly find his design interesting.

Tharja Prediction: 1.15%
I expect her to do slightly worse than she did before.

Nominations: Diskun x5

 

[jaytalks]

Muddy Mole:
Chances: 20%
Gotta put in the miyamoto factor!
Want: 0%
Lots of zeroes from me recently eh? I'm indifferent, so it's a zero.

Isaac:
Chances: 49%
The strongest AT aside from Little Mac in terms of becoming a rep. What he's got against him: a lackluster selling sequel (which still outsold many other second entires like S&P).
Want:100%
Isaac is awesome. Cool moveset options. And would be a positive for the GS series moving forward.

Micaiah: 1.89%
Here we have an FE newcomer that offers the most unique moveset aside from maybe a pair up option, a representative from the previous video game generation (you've probably heard me harp about this), someone who wouldnt have been considered in Brawl (remember, Brawl was supposed to come out the same year as Micaiah's game, and even then that would not have been enough time for Sakurai). But she is so lowly regarded. Why?

Nominations
X5 Hanafuda Character

 

[Knight Dude]

Muddy Mole

Chances: 45%: I'm putting his chances at a solid 45, thing is it's hard to say which retros are the most likely. Everyone points to Takamaru, likely because he has the easiest moveset to imagine of the group. But Sakurai and the devs seem to be going for less conventional characters this time, so what's obvious to us may not be interesting to the people making the game. The Mole has one interesting gimmick no one else in Smash has touched on. That's going underground to fight, which is a cool enough idea to be worth mentioning. Though I suppose a few other Nintendo characters could swipe this gimmick from under his feet, Like Dillon.

Want: 55%: I'm mostly indifferent to this guy. Though I can't say I would hate it if he was included. I guess I would like Dillon more.

Isaac

Chances: 68%: I chose to put Isaac's chances a little higher for two reasons mostly. The first being that he was an Assist character in Brawl, I feel that a few of these characters have a chance to become fully playable, as Sakurai and the devs seemed interested enough in them to consider how their abilities work. I suppose that doesn't mean they have to be included. I just feel that one or two of them might be reconsidered as full on fighters. The second reason I put his chances a little higher is that he's from a primarily handheld series, with multiple entries. With Smash 4 having a handheld version, I feel as if some series can get quite a bit of representation on the 3DS. He also has a lot to offer in terms of moveset, mostly with all of his magic. And to top it all off, we haven't had an Earth/Rock based fighter either.

Want: 99%: I think that Isaac has a lot to offer in Smash as a fully playable character, with the reasons above. But I also happen to find Golden Sun a rather interesting series. So it would be even cooler to have it represented properly in Smash, characters, stages and the like. Doesn't hurt that he looks pretty cool too.

Tharja Prediction: 1.19%: I'm thinking this is another lowball character. Which makes sense, with all of the Fire Emblem characters, very few have any good chances.

Nominations: Dark Samus x5. Not a likely character. But someone I think is worth talking about nonetheless. Perhaps some people would at least like the idea of Dark Samus being playable.

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

You don't seem to be getting it. No Nintendo character has a 0% chance aside from Confirmed not to exist characters.

It's my rate not yours you aignt my momma. People gave Hanufuda and other Nintendo characters 0% so go complain to them as well.

 

[loganhogan]

Muddy Mole: As a retro character could be, but i'm not too familiar with the character so I can't be for it.
20%
Want 0%

Isaac: He's popular and that's about it, he could get lucky like Marth did in Melee but could easily be the Ninten of Golden Sun. Unlike Fire Emblem, Golden Sun didn't stay active very long. Besides he's in danger if Sakurai is porting over the assist trophies he's at risk to remain as one.
5%
Want 5% I like magic users but I have no attachment to the character, I'm biased and prefer Robin Embarrass.

x5 Funky Kong

 

[SchAlternate]

It's my rate not yours you aignt my momma. People gave Hanufuda and other Nintendo characters 0% so go complain to them as well.

Characters that receive such ratings are either too obscure, too unimportant or too pointless/redundant to have a chance of getting in, so a near zero rating is pretty much a fair score.

Not to say you don't have the right to express your opinion, but if you truly think that Isaac, or anyone whom people have considered him as a likely contestant for legitimate reasons, is truly on the same level of unlikeliness as Zero, then you'd better have a good argument to back it up; otherwise hell would collapse on you.

Remember! When giving a score in want, consider all the attributes of a character, determinate whether they affect its chances positively or negatively, and, most importantly, try to avoid getting biased as much as possible; leave that to the want score.

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

Characters that receive such ratings are either too obscure, too unimportant or too pointless/redundant to have a chance of getting in, so a near zero rating is pretty much a fair score.

Not to say you don't have the right to express your opinion, but if you truly think that Isaac, or anyone whom people have considered him as a likely contestant for legitimate reasons, is truly on the same level of unlikeliness as Zero, then you'd better have a good argument to back it up; otherwise hell would collapse on you.

Remember! When giving a score in want, consider all the attributes of a character, determinate whether they affect its chances positively or negatively, and, most importantly, try to avoid getting biased as much as possible; leave that to the want score.

Fine I guess I'll give Isaac a 5% INsted. I honestly can't see him happening. Too much competition he has.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Muddy Mole
Chance: 5%
I see the name being thrown around a lot, but I think other more recognisable retro choices would get in before him including Takamaru, Lip, Mach Rider, Duck Hunt Dog and even the semi de-confirmed Balloon Fighter. Still, there's a chance as Sakurai has mentioned him before...as well as nearly all the other characters above.

Want: 10%
I'm not really invested in this retro. The digging mechanic would be cool, but I'd much rather see it used on new and upcoming Nintendo Star; Dillon.

Like Rosalina, he'd actually probably be the worst choice for me, due to my excessive neutral feelings about it. Being neutral for this game is, in a way, worse than being outright hated. At least with the latter you can go and kick the newcomer in the face. Thus I am more invested in Takamaru.

Isaac:
Chance: 41%
Okay...Isaac has a lot going for him. Unique abilities, a new(to Smash) franchise, and has substantial popularity in the west. He was also recognised enough to be included in Brawl as an Assist Trophy.

But it is the latter point which is also a downside. Starfy was also an Assist Trophy, a character with unique abilities, a new franchise and substantial popularity in the east, which tends to be favoured over the west for Nintendo newcomers. Where is Starfy now? Assist Trophy again.

This coupled with Toad's return to being a ****ing meatshield again makes me believe that Sakurai isn't going to change his mind on a lot of those who have previous roles in Smash this time round.

Yes, Charizard has managed to become playable after being a Pokeball Pokemon but this is generally the exception to the rule.

Still out of all the Assist Trophies who COULD become playables I feel like Isaac and Goroh(if F-Zero ever gets a second character) have the best shots of making the leap from Assist to Playable.

Also against him is Golden Sun's dwindling popularity in Japan. I don't see him not being the protagonist of the third game as a problem though, as Olimar, Marth and the Earthbound kids have proven this doesn't necessarily mean replacement with the latest model.

Want: 100%
Isaac is one of the few characters I support passively, but am completely behind. I feel like he could offer some interesting abilities and if uniqueness is a factor, Isaac could be exactly the sort of character we need.

He's also one of the characters I support for someone else more than myself. With Toad seemingly out, Ike not guaranteed to come back and Pichu almost guaranteed not to be back, Isaac is the last hope for my sister to get a character in she wants to play. Aside from Robin anyway.

I have always thought that Golden Sun needed more representation than just an Assist Trophy however. At one point the games were huge deals and it's quite depressing to see the series fade in to obscurity like F-Zero.

Micaiah prediction: 2%
Roy, Awakening and Ike himself stomp all over her despite her chance to be utterly unique.

Nominations:
Bomberman X 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Muddy Mole - 4%
Isaac - 50%

predict - 2.5%

I'll help Keybladeguy and nominate Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness) x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Muddy Mole:
Likelohood: 3%
I like to think that all the possible retros are in a large rat-race to get selected for Smash 4. So, no one really stands out in the group, expect for Takamaru and that too by just a little bit.

Want: 30%
Not really interested.

Isaac:
Likelihood: 60%
I quote my previous post, on day 4.

Isaac:
Likeliness: 70%
If Sakurai is using pre-Brawl era popularity, then he has chance. Probably one of the few ATs who can make the jump into playable status.

Want: 95%
My second most wanted character, only behind Lyn.

Nothing has changed since then, except that Rosalina's confirmation has everyone clamouring for uniqueness.

Though I do think I was a bit too confident about his chances. Still, he offers a lot of unique abilities that set him apart from other characters and comes from one of the best games of the GBA era, and his popularity was acknowledged with him appearing as an Assist Trophy in Brawl.

Want: 100%
I've played both the GBA games, and they are really great games. Isaac is one of my most wanted newcomers in this game. Very few other characters would get me pumped for this game like him, so all of my yes. Besides, I want to see N3ON fall off her chair.

Micaiah prediction: 2%
Probably the least popular FE lord here, despite her uniqueness as a mage.

6 Mario characters x 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Muddy Mole:

Chance: 6%
Good potential moveset, but not a high chance of series resurrection... An odd choice for retro, but a possible one.

Want: 0%
Lip or Takamaru would revive better series for the modern age, and that matters more to me.


Isaac:
JRPG reps you say? Ness and Lucas say hi. As does Marth. And because I feel he's decently likely Slime.

Isaac has to get in on his own merits, and his popularity is western, and even then fairly small. His inclusion would come from uniqueness... So:

Chance: 38%
He's a magic user, and has competition in that regard, but he has a significant niche in earth magic and spellswording, the problem is it's only just enough to overcome the popularity issrue... And he's second party, and quite probably from a dead series... He is however boosted by the 3DS focusing on handheld releases though.

I can't put him higher than slime, because he just doesn't have the clout of the big boys of JRPGs. I don't think Shulk does either really, but JP popularity trumps western... They don't compete mind, because there's plenty of space for JRPG characters.

Want: 100%
He'd be cool, enough to me to have made a movement for him. Further, Nintendo are putting more of a squeeze on Sony for the king of JRPGs, so they should push it, especially with no JRPG characters in PSASBR.


Fire Emblem character:

Chance: 8%
The most notable FE mage, but with competition from her brother... Not likely.


Pokémon AT.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

MUDDY MOLE

Chance: 5% - He could happen as a retro, but you know, competition begs otherwise.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

ISAAC

Chance: 60% - He isn't too likely but it is possible that Sakurai has taken note of his popularity ( mostly in the US) since Brawl.

Want: 95% - Last time I gave him an 80 which is a strange score to give my second most wanted character. But really, he has alot of potential. I mean if he gets in, then my wishlist is complete!

Micaiah Prediction: 3% - I'm not expecting big things from her.

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Muddy Mole Chance:5%
Want:50%

Isaac Chance:60%-him being in as a playable character or as an AT would both be plausible scenarios
Want:100%-He is one of my most wanted characters.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Muddy Mole Chance: I think he has a good chance of being the next retro, Mole Mania is a great game and his digging mechanic has something going for him as the Gameboy retro. But seeing these 45%, 20%s, 25%, for the sake of balance, I'm going give Muddy a.. 15%
Want: 50% I'm pretty indifferent, I just like Sable better than him.

Isaac Chance: 15%
Isaac Want: 50%

Micaiah Prediction 2.6%

Nominations:
x5 Harry

Nominations
X5 Hanafuda Character

Remind me to nominate this later.

 

[Alban712]

Muddy Mole Likelihood: 4%
Far better retro options and with a limited newcomer spots in this game, a retro is not even a guarantee

Want: 0%
Lip and Takamaru are far more interesting

Isaac likelihood: 38%
AT Status, Western Popularity and potential for uniqueness can really save you when your series from a 2 party company is in decline?

Want: 100%
I Love Golden Sun (mostly the GBA games) and would love his inclusion

Micaiah: 2.85%

6 Mario Characters x 5

 

[Rouge]

Muddy Mole:
Chance 5%
Want 5%

Isaac
Chance 19%
Want: 25%

Micaiah prediction: 3.65% - Surprised we still haven't done Micaiah.

Bowser's Castle Stage x 3
Shulk x 2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

It's my rate not yours you aignt my momma. People gave Hanufuda and other Nintendo characters 0% so go complain to them as well.

It's obivous you don't want isaac but that's no reason to give a character who has been pretty heavily requested a 0%.

I propose Elite Gaymer stops giving no differentiation between want and chance.

 

[Smasher 101]

Muddy Mole's chances: 5% - Sakurai at least knows about him, though I'm still doubtful he'd get in over Takamaru, Mach Rider, Lip, and the like.
Want: 50% - Indifferent. Like with Ray I was just interested in seeing how his day went.

Isaac's chances: 35% - In my eyes it's very likely that one at least one Assist Trophy will get an upgrade to playable status, but Little Mac is much more likely to get that spot. A second one's a bit more iffy. Shulk may also hurt him.
Want: 90% - I'd like Golden Sun to get a rep. I'd take him over Shulk too.

Micaiah prediction: 2.02%

Ike x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

It's obivous you don't want isaac but that's no reason to give a character who has been pretty heavily requested a 0%.

I propose Elite Gaymer stops giving no differentiation between want and chance.

He already changed his rating to 5%, which is the same rating Lucinhass gave him. Any character can be a potential zero in someone's eyes. Can we please try to keep this forum peaceful without starting any potential arguments.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

muddy mole - 10.55%
he has a better chance than a run off the old mill mole, I believe sakurai has commented on him, so that at the very least makes him recognized, and just imagining what he can do gives him an obvious uniqueness, though he's probably behind lip and Takamaru for retro reps
want - 90%
he is also my second favorite retro choice, the burrowing mechanic could make some solid gameplay, being a tricky and unpredictable aspect of him, that would be hard to master, but could easy tide the battle
Isaac - 18.25%
out of the blond head trio (saki, Isaac, and shulk) he has the middle chance, along with shulk taking the lead and saki getting the back, he has uniqueness going for him with swordplay and magic combine and seems to have a lot of cult popularity, but yet his series are in a major decline, one that would most likely never come back, and if that continues than his hope of getting in would slowly decrease every day, he could make it in he could not, I just don't think he's likely much
want - 55%
never really got into golden sun to know what the habba is about, he seems interesting, but I got others I want
fire emblem prediction number (inset generic number) - 0.95%
i'm expecting a majority of people to vote below 1%
nominations:
ikeX5

 

[Xenigma]

Muddy Mole - 2.5%
Yet another "retro" character that gets surprising support by virtue of being a retro. I'm willing to give this particular one the benefit of the doubt since at the minimum his game was released internationally, so it's a lot more likely to be a character that players will recognize and possibly even be excited to see resurrected. I just can't help but look at him and his limited gameplay and think he's pretty much perfect Assist Trophy material, so it seems overwhelmingly more likely that that happens instead.
Want - 0% - Maybe interesting in a future installment, but for now, too many other characters I'd much rather see take a slot.


Isaac - 70%
Honestly, not much has changed since the last rating way back on day four, so I'll go ahead and quote my old post:

I'm probably overshooting here (again, I'm obviously biased), but I've got faith in Isaac's chances. He's appeared in three games now, with a potential fourth to finish Dark Dawn's story eventually being made. He's got a ton of unique moves to pull from thanks to Psynergy and summons, and a magic-wielding swordsman has yet to appear in Smash (barring a potential Ganondorf re-make with a sword focus). He had a lot of support pre-Brawl and is still in the top ten for desired characters here in the West. He has already appeared as an Assist Trophy, so clearly Sakurai knows about him. Oh, and he's from an unrepresented series, which seems to improve your chances for SSB4 considering all three new characters so far are from unrepresented series. He's got some detractors, such as the series not being as popular as it was pre-Brawl, Matthew possibly taking his spot as a more recent protagonist, and Shulk fitting a similar archetype from an even more recent RPG. Still, it's my firm opinion that he has a lot more going in his favor than he has against him. Can only hope that Sakurai agrees.

What has changed is that we got a fourth newcomer, and while Rosalina isn't from a unrepped franchise, she is another incredibly unique character that seems to further emphasize Sakurai is looking for characters that are unlike anything else in Smash. That can only help Isaac, who perhaps has the most moveset potential of any of the top characters being requested for SSB4. He's not a lock for inclusion by any means, but unless E3 passes without Isaac news, I think there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about his chances.

Want - 100% - Still my most wanted newcomer by a mile. Would be an amazing inclusion both for Golden Sun fans and for Smash fans as a whole as he would no doubt be an incredibly unique character.

Micaiah Prediction - 1.5%
Judging by recent Fire Emblem ratings, Micaiah's going to have a lot of trouble.

Nominations
Sheik x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Mr Resetti Muddy Mole: 4%
Want: 5%

Isaac: 25%
Want: 75%

Micaiah: 2.51% (Sorry Sid-cada)

 

[Starbound]

Muddy Mole: 18% Chance / 65% Want
The biggest ace up his sleeve is that his game was international. Takamaru, Sable and Lip's games were Japan only. Plus, the digging mechanic would help him stand out as well. Plus for Brawl, Sakurai wanted to limit the number of Japan-only characters.

Isaac: 20% Chance / 50% Want

x5 Little Mac

 

[Chandeelure]

-Muddy Mole:
Chances:8%
Want:20%

-Isaac:
Chances:15%
Want:10%

-Micaiah prediction:1%

-Nomination:Lor Starcutter stage X5