Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Deleted member]

Zero and Robin have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Robin before, make sure to check what you said on his original day!

Zero
Chance: Zero Percent
Zero is popular, but there is something that tells me that he stands no chance. I feel as though that if were to get a second Mega Man character, it would be Proto Man since we are looking at Classic Mega Man rather than Mega Man X. If we were rating Proto Man, I would give him 1%. But Zero? I don't think he's happening.
Want: Zero Percent
To be honest, I'm a bit peeved that he got in over Mega Man in Marvel vs. Capcom 3. Him getting in Smash wouldn't make me happy.

Robin
Chance: 25%
13% higher than what I gave him during his original day and I barely explained crap.
When it comes to Fire Emblem characters, he seems to be a frontrunner in the series. He's the avatar of Fire Emblem: Awakening, which definitely helps in his favor as he is one of the main stars of a game that helped put Fire Emblem on the map in America. He could bring something brand new and unique to the series with all sorts of magic that he can use. So, that alone can make him unique and looking at the newcomers, that is what Sakurai is looking for. He can bring more uniqueness than Chrom or veteran Roy could, so he could be a more interesting choice.
It's just a bit hard for me to determine if he truly deserves to be above 50%. I'm thinking not. He still has to compete with veteran Ike, who is still rather popular by the fanbase, and Japan seems to want Chrom and Roy. Outside of Chrom and Roy, he also has to compete with Lucina, who is from the same game that Robin hails from and is also a rather popular character.
Overall, Robin is possible, but I would be a bit surprised if he got in this game. I find that 3 Fire Emblem characters to be inevitable.
Want: 0%
Look, I don't care for any Fire Emblem character other than Marth and Ike, and it's because those two are veterans (even though I don't care about veteran Roy!; wasn't a fan of him in Melee). Also, I didn't play Fire Emblem: Awakening and I am forcing myself not to until SSB4 gets released so that I won't develop a bias for a character in the game or grow attached to them to want them in Smash.
The only Fire Emblem characters I want in Smash are Owain, Tharja, and the Owain and Yarne Tag Team and I want those in for all the wrong reasons.

Muddy Mole Prediction: 6.41%
This could be interesting…

Nominations: Bomberman 5x
GROOSE! BOMBERMAN CURRENTLY HAS 45 NOMINATIONS, EXCLUDING THESE NOMINATIONS. I WON 5 EXTRA NOMINATIONS BEFORE AND GAVE THEM TO HIM AND BIGAXLE GAVE HIM 5 NOMINATIONS TOO.

Also, I got a concept that will get even lower in Chance and Want than Chancellor Cole's scores.
The concept? Oh boy… I am a bit evil…
SSB4 Micro-transactions

 

[Starcutter]

Zero: 5%
Want: 40%

Robin: 60% best new FE rep.
Want 60% best new FE rep.

Muddy mole 7.8%

Indie game character x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Zero: Zero.ZeroZero
Want: Zero.ZeroZero

Robin: 20%
Want: 25%
See new score below.

Muddy Mole: 1.22%

x5 Bowser Jr.

EDIT: More logical Robin rating.

I see the chances we get three fire emblem reps as 85%. I think that we will be seeing Ike again, but I will give him a 90%. That gives us a 95% chance of having a newcomer. Here are my percents of all Fire Emblem characters based on that.

Marth: 100%
Ike: 90%
Chrom: 30%
Robin: 22%
Roy: 20%
Lucina: 15%
Lyn: 3%
Other Past Lord: 2%
Anna: 2%
Other: 1%

I will change my chance for robin to 22% and my want to 60%

 

[XenothiumX]

Zero
Likelihood: 1%
I still stand by my policy of never giving a character a big fat goose egg in likelihood score. Notice how I avoided making some stupid pun.

Want: 5%
If Megaman got a second rep then it would be unfair to the other 3rd party reps. Sonic the hedgehog would then need a second rep and then before you know it... the roster is over saturated with 3rd party characters.

Robin
Likelihood: 18%

Pros:
+ The reveal of Arena Ferox as a stage strongly supports the appearance of an Awakening character
+ The Villager has shown us that Avatar characters can make play-ability in smash
+ The male costume swap for the Wii Fit Trainer opens up the idea of gender swaps for other characters
+ Robin can be more versatile in his/her moveset since he/she can use magic as well as swords and/or any other weapon of choice with a class change
+ Robin has a major role in FE Awakening

Cons:
- Competing with Chrom and I suppose Lucina as well for the spot
- Not featured on the cover of the game

With all that taken into consideration, Chrom is a major hindrance to his/her likelihood since I feel Chrom is the most likely rep Awakening will get, of course, 3 FE reps may be unlikely but, not yet out of the question.

Want: 60%
I'd be happy with anyone from Awakening since I love that game, however, I'd rather see Chrom or Lucina join the fight.

Muddy Mole
Prediction: 0.5%

Nominations:
Slippy x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Zero
Chance: 0% - Because Sakurai has very clearly been focusing on retro Megaman. We have little room for third parties, so why should Megaman get two.
Want: 2% - I know nothing about this guy.

Avatar
Chance: 23% - He/she is certainly in the realm of possibility, as he/she is an important character with some great moveset potential. My big issue with Avatar is that his/her identity is heavily built on customization (even more so than the AC villagers who all look nearly identical). Sure they can have a default appearance, but I feel that would only take away what made Avatar so beloved in the first place.
I know that I'm definitely in the minority now, but I feel that Chrom still has a much bigger chance.
Want: 70% - I'd would give him/her a perfect 100% if customization were possible, but that's not going to happen.

Muddy Mole prediction: 8.4%

Nominations: Dr. Mario stage x5

 

[Xenigma]

Zero - 0%
This one is pretty simple: knowing what we know about third party characters in Smash, there is absolutely no reason to believe Sakurai would even consider adding two characters from the same third party franchise. Zero as an assist trophy feels very plausible considering Grey Fox and Shadow's ATs back in Brawl, and might even happen as DLC given the enthusiastic response to Mega Man on disc, but playable on disc? No chance whatsoever.
Want - 50% - I'd be interested, although I would far prefer he be DLC. Zero's already got a history in fighting games and it would be neat to see it continue.

Robin - 20%
I'm thoroughly convinced that one of the three protagonists from Awakening will be playable, and if Chrom and Lucina are both worth 40% a piece, that makes Robin a clean 20%. The reason for the lower rating is fairly simple: despite having much more moveset potential, Robin doesn't have a distinct identity by nature of being a customized player character, and both Chrom and Lucina are simply more popular and easier to implement. There's a strong case to be made for Robin, but it's an uphill struggle against the game's pair of lords, so I have to keep his/her rating pretty reserved as a result.
Want - 50% - I much prefer Lucina, but considering how unique Robin could be, I'd be interested to see how he/she turns out.

Muddy Mole Prediction - 7.5%
Another "retro" rating, another day of a random character being overrated to some unpredictable degree.

Nominations
Sheik x5

 

[loganhogan]

Zero% chance and want for Zero.

Robin 60% chance. Robin is one of awakening's main characters, but like Rosalina offers more variety than Chrom.
want: 100% I would appreciate Robin a lot.

x5 Magnus

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Zero likelihood: 0%
Want: 20%

Robin likelihood: 40%
Want: 70%

Muddy Mole: 6%

Wrestler x5

 

[Rouge]

Zero:

Chance - 0% - UMvC3 has Zero, Sm4sh has Mega Man.
Want - 0% - And... Sm4sh has the lucky deal. Never got the Zero love.

Robin

Chance - 63% - which, in FE probability means that s/he will probably miss her attack Seriously though, I've already explained many times why I think that Robin will make it over Google Chrom. S/he's precisely the kind of character that Sakurai likes to add because it's kind of out of the box, yet completely justifiable and an easy choice to back with an original moveset. Moreover, Robin IS Intelligent System's favorite Awakening character and they actually do have a say in the process. Plus it's the player's unit, a character that has been very well-received and the most important character in Awakening. It just kind of adds up.

Want - 65% - It's funny that I find myself defending Robin's chances so much because I'm not a huge fan of the character! Two words: Mary Sue. That said, if it has to be between Robin or Chrom, the tactician is definitely the lesser evil. Much more compelling character and much more original moveset potential.

Muddy Mole prediction : 6.08%

Bowser Castle Stage x 5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Zero - 0%

Another major Mega Man character, but a more than one character from a third party is quie unlikely, due to the whole " has to be legendary" criteria. Due to Sega being all "buddy buddy" with Nintendo, I think if we get more than one character from a third party, it would most likely be a Sega character, a second Sonic character to be specific. Even then, a second Sonic character is still unlikely.

Want - 50%

Haven't played any Mega Man games (gasping crowd) so I'm indifferent to his inclusion.


Robin - 45%

Don't know much about Fire Emblem so I'm just taking a wild guess on this one.

Want - 50%

Indifferent again.

Muddy Mole Prediction - 10.4%

I suppose he could be one of the more interesting possible retros characters, I'm interested to see how the next day will play out.

Nominations: Dry Bowser x5.

 

[SmashShadow]

Zero: 0%
The capcom rep is already in and even more so, the X series Megaman isn't in Smash.
Want: 0%
One of my favorite characters but there are so many more deserving ones and I can easily live without him in Smash. And then, just think of the rabid Sonic fans. They'd turn this game into Sonic All-Stars plus a few Mario characters.

Robin: 18%
Want: 50% Meh.

Muddy Mole: 1.7%

 

[NickerBocker]

Zero
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 30%

It simply boils down to whether or not 3rd party companies can actually have 2 different characters. So far, we have not seen this happen, so i will remain skeptical, although it is not impossible. As far as Megaman characters go, he's probably the next best choice other than Dr. Wily himself. Compared to all of Capcom, however, it may be a different story.

Robin
Chance: 45%
Want: 100%

The way I see FE is there are 3 frontrunners all fighting for a potential character slot and while there are others that could be noted (Lyn, Macaiah, etc.,) they don't compare to these 3. Those characters are Chrom, due to being the newest Lord from the series and as a result is what is "hot" right now, Roy, for his veteran status and popularity in Japan, and Robin, who can claim the title for most potential to be unique and can also be seen as a main protagonist over Chrom in Awakening. All in all, I would rank them as such:

1. Chrom
2. Robin
3. Roy

Although I don't think their chances vary much (only about 10% between them,) Chrom is bland and very cookiecutter, but is the frontrunner, IMO. Roys popularity is due to him simply being left out of Brawl and IMO, no one would even look twice at him if it wasn't for his veteran status. That leaves Robin, who, as far as I'm concerned, is the best choice. His chance would be higher, however, if there wasn't so much competition and FE may not be getting a new character.

That being said, Robin would get me very excited for Smash, only behind the likes of King K. Rool. Awakening was an amazing experience for me, It had some of the best storytelling (not just in a videogame, I mean anywhere) I have experienced, and a large part of that was due to Robin and his character development. The game wouldn't be the same without him. He was my favorite character to use, as he wields powerful magic abilities as well as the potential to wield swords, providing something that FE has yet to show.

I hate to use the line "blue haired swordsman," but if we get yet another Lord such as Chrom, it will be pretty redundant, which is my main problem with most of the FE characters (especially the Lords.)

Muddy Mole: 5.7%

Nominations:
Vaati x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Zero - 0.5%
My Unit/Avatar/Robin - 13% - Chrom & Lucina aren't supporters.

predict - 3.5%

Black Mage x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Zero:
Likelihood: Zero%
I really doubt a 2nd Mega Man character is happening, seeing that Mega Man is still a newcomer to the Smash Bros franchise. Maybe when Smash 5 or 6 comes by, but now is definitely not the time.

Want: Zero%
I apologize for being harsh here, as I do not hate Zero as a character. I actually like his character design, but I don't want to see him in Smash at the moment.

Robin:
Likelihood: 15%
Slightly higher that what I gave him/her last time. The emphasis on uniqueness in newcomers' movesets has made me a bit more confident about his/her chances. But competition is where he/she falters badly.

Want: 65%
I'm his/her secret admirer.

Muddy Mole prediction: 2.9%

6 Mario characters x 5

 

[jaytalks]

Zero:
Chances:0%
No two characters from the same third party series.
Want: 100%
The original Mega Man X design, Zero is just too awesome of a character to not want in Smash. I was so excited when I found out Zero was a character in Tatsunoko vs Capcom. He's in my team usually in UMVC3. He also had the awesome Mega Man Zero series which got four installments. I would argue that series in someways exceeded the Mega Man core and Mega Man X series. I'm disappointed that I am the first 100% for the character. He is just two cool.

Want: Zero Percent
To be honest, I'm a bit peeved that he got in over Mega Man in Marvel vs. Capcom 3. Him getting in Smash wouldn't make me happy.

It's not his fault Capcom hates Mega Man. And that's why Mega Man didnt get into UMVC3. Which reminds me, this something I posted on Miiverse:

It's great to have Mega Man be in a company that loves the character. I hope Nintendo embraces all aspects of the characters, including the series' secondary protagonists. So if you are reading this Sakurai, I fully expect a Zero trophy and I would love a Zero assist trophy! This would be my number one pick for the Mega Man series assist trophy.

Robin:
Chances: 35%
I gave Chrom a 50% chance (including the possibility of a duo in that rating), so to be consistent here is my FE newcomer rankings:
Chrom 25%
Lucina 15%
Robin 20%
Chrom and Lucina: 10%
Chrom and Robin team up: 15%
Other 5%
No newcomer 10%

Robin has many thing go for him/her. The character provides a diverse moveset. Robin also is arguably the main character in Fire Emblem: Awakening based on the character's role in the story. Very unique design compared to the other FE newcomers (aka my default isnt blue hair).

The true main character status help Chrom, as with the possible pairing (I don't see a Lucina/Robin pairing making sense). But really, Sakurai has so many options to pursue with Fire Emblem (including none of the above!), so really, I feel like the should be a more of levelness to our ranking, especially in the wake of Chrom's dethroning.
Want:100%
There is a bias towards Lucina considering she is my favorite character in the entire series, but on pure playability, Robin would be my most wanted newcomers. I'm also a big advocate of more worthy female characters in Smash, so Robin would be a win/win for everyone should the character have both options of gender. Every time I think of the character's moveset, I inevitable come up with a new playstyle. And I'm a crappy game designer, so I cant even imagine what Sakurai would do for the character.

Muddy Mole: 4.79%
Micaiah x5

 

[Starbound]

Zero: 0% Chance / 0% Want
Not legendary.

Robin: 5% Chance / 0% Want
There's a lot of competition for a Fire Emblem slot. Robin really doesn't stick out from the competition of Roy, Chrom and Lucina at all. Sure you might think that "he'll never be a clone because majick!", but considering that every Fire Emblem character is just as much of a blank slate as their competitors, he's just as likely wind up being a unique character as he is to wind up being a clone. I know this sounds crazy. But Marth around as many animations as Roy does in the Fire Emblem games, and both have around as many as Ike does as well. Yet comparing Marth to Roy, you get a clone. Compare Marth to Ike and you get unique characters. And there's around the same amount of material (in-game animations) to work with for all three of these characters.

x5 Little Mac

 

[Pacack]

Thanks for everyone's votes yesterday for Daitoryo. Really nice knowing how everyone here felt about him, even if a lot of it was negative. Honestly, I was surprised by how high some of my supporters listed Daitoryo in chance (coughGaymercough), so I'm kinda glad we had some negatives to even it out. Besides, it wouldn't be any fun if he wasn't surprising.

Anyways, back to today:

Zero:

Chance: .6%
Second characters from the same third party are highly unlikely...that said, I don't remember the supposed "one character per franchise" rule ever being stated. Honestly, if Sakurai really wanted to, getting two characters from a third party in instead of one wouldn't really be that much more paperwork at all. But, of course, it's more likely that Sega would get that treatment since there are far more requests for a second Sonic character than there are for Zero. And, of course, Zero's just not to the point where he could be considered a "legendary" character. I mean, Tails and maybe Pheonix Wright are borderline, but Zero's not.

Yeah, I'm sorry, gotta give this low a score. It's possible, but it's not likely at all.

Want: 2%
I'd try him out and like his playstyle, but that's all he has going for him. Sorry, but no.


Robin:
Ooh, goodie. I was looking forward to this one.

Chance: 40%
I may sound slightly unreasonable here, but I'm more confident on Robin than I am about Chrom. Chrom has recentness, popularity, and importance to Awakening's story going for him. Robin has recentness, importance rivaling or surpassing Chrom's (I won't get into that because spoilers), and uniqueness. Ultimately, it comes down to whether popularity or uniqueness gets a character in, and, from what we've seen from Rosalina, it seems like uniqueness is more important this time around. With us also having both Wii Fit Trainer's genders clearing up that Robin's two genders aren't an issue, I'm more confident than I've been in awhile for Robin.

Want: 80%
I love magic users and sword users. Both sounds too good to be true. Sign me up. (I'd also be really happy because we didn't get triple blue-haired swordsmen)

Muddy Mole Prediction: 8.4%?
I honestly have no idea. This is a shot in the dark.

Nominations: Diskun x5

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

Zero: 0%
Want: 0%

Robin: 99% best new FE rep.
Want 100% best new FE rep.

No more boring A** blue haired swordsman! Ike and chrome are lame and bland! Roy is just a Marth clone and sucks. Seriously sakurai fire emblem is more then just lame dudes with swords smh

Muddy mole 100%

Tony(Earthbound/Mother 2) x5

 

[Pacack]

Zero: 0%
Want: 0%

Robin: 99% best new FE rep.
Want 100% best new FE rep.

No more boring A** blue haired swordsman! Ike and chrome are lame and bland! Roy is just a Marth clone and sucks. Seriously sakurai fire emblem is more then just lame dudes with swords smh

Muddy mole 100%

Tony(Earthbound/Mother 2) x5

Dude. Please.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Zero: 0/0%
Megaman is super retro in this game, and zero isn't.. We'll probably get some trophies for X, EXE, Zero and Legends but other than music I don't see anything else.

Fire emblem guy number 207:

Chance: 12.34%
Want: 0%
I honestly don't think I want Marth anymore, thank primarily to this game...


Muddy Mole: 3.6%
Because numbers, and the way people use them.

pokémon AT*5

 

[FalKoopa]

Zero: 0%
Want: 0%

Robin: 99% best new FE rep.
Want 100% best new FE rep.

No more boring A** blue haired swordsman! Ike and chrome are lame and bland! Roy is just a Marth clone and sucks. Seriously sakurai fire emblem is more then just lame dudes with swords smh

Muddy mole 100%

Tony(Earthbound/Mother 2) x5

If you're doing it on purpose, your votes will be ignored.

 

[Jubileus57]

Zero Chances: 0.001%
Zero Want: 0%

Robin Chances: 10%
Robin Want 5%: I don't care much about Fire Emblem characters. They are all the same to me...

Muddy Mole Prediction: 1.76%

Bayonetta x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Zero
0 Chance
0 Want

Nope

Robin 65% Chance

Truth be told, the more Chrom falters, the more Robin shines. The idea of unique characters taking prominence over less unique one bodes well for Robin, as Robin also has much more moveset potential, with the ability to use swords and MAGIC, not to mention anything else via reclassing. The showing off of WFT and HFT shows that characters that have a gender counterpart, like the PKMN Trainer, Villager, and Robin, will have their other gender in, knocking off one of the big criticisms last time. Robin also is the developer favorite from Intelligent Systems, so like how they suggested Roy and Ike for Melee and Brawl, they can suggest Robin. However, while I do see 3 FE characters, the competition is fierce. Though I think he is the most likely FE Awakening character, Chrom and Lucina are competition. And then there is the second most demanded character for SSB4 worldwide, Roy. So Robin does have competition, but I think Robin beats them out with the unique moveset potential and IS favoritism...

100% Want

My most wanted newcomer. In case Top 5 must be shown...
1. Robin
2. Shulk
3. Ridley
4. K Rool
5. Takumaru

I don't count Mewtwo as a newcomer, but if you did, put him at #3 and bump everything else down 1.

Nominating Ike x5

 

[Shotguner159]

Zero:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Robin:
Chance 20%
Sure, s/he could have a unique moveset, but here his/her customization works against her. Robin has two genders, three builds and voices per gender, 5 faces and hairstyles per build and 20 hair colours and each of the builds would have different attributes in terms of weight, height and speed, not to mention how IS has Robin hooded when using him/her in advertisements, if they use him/her at all, which wouldn't really work in Smash. Sakurai has shown he can make characters with no defined appearance work (Villager) and that he'll give characters with two genders the other one as an alternate costume (Wii Fit Trainer), but Robin would require far more than just a costume change for their appereance.
Want 0%
I like Robin, but I definitely don't want him/her in Smash.

Moreover, Robin IS Intelligent System's favorite Awakening character.

The developers interview makes it clear that Intelligent System's favourite Awakening character is Tharja, with all of the people in the interview saying her.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Zero:
Chance: 0.1%
He's far more likely going to be the Megaman Assist Trophy. I'd put money on it either being him, Protoman or Roll.

Want: 0%
I have no attachment to Megaman characters as a whole. They weren't a part of my childhood. Megaman gets a little respect from me due to the amount of people that love him, but I feel like if any 3rd party should get a secondary character it's the Sonic series. As long as it isn't Shadow.

Sorry Zero, it's nothing personal.

Now onto the meat of this RTC...

Robin:

Let's see...what did I say last time?

Robin:
Chance: 10%
I'm not sure why, but I feel like Robin being in will require two models each with multiple palette swaps, and two sets of voice recordings unless they pick a gender. Not entirely sure what they'd do with such a customizable character, but I guess s/he could be pretty much anything that Marth and Ike/Roy/Chrom aren't. However I still feel s/he's less likely than Chrom as a newcomer.

Want: 35%
I'm a big ol' Roy supporter so I'm a little bias. That being said, I'm sure Robin would be a far more interesting Fire Emblem rep than just another swordsman. I'm a little interested about what they'd do with such a flexible character too.

Okay, ignore past YoshiandToad. He was an idiot. I mean he presumed Toad, Bowser Jr and Waluigi had a better chance than Rosalina(& Luma) for goodness sake. What a fool!

What's changed then? Well; we've received what appears to be alternate gender costumes for Wii Fit Trainer, uniqueness seems to be the key ingredient to these newcomers which Robin beats everyone else at and since then I actually finished played Fire Emblem Awakening. You know what? THIS guy(or girl) is the goddamn protagonist not Chrom. Robin makes all the decisions, everything that happens is down to Robin essentially(with arguably a bit of plot happening due to Lucina), not Chrom.

Chance: 35%
That said, I still think Chrom is more likely due to his massive popularity and the seemingly unwritten rule that Lords with Swords have priority. Despite our downgrade he is still more likely to be picked than the more exciting Robin.

Robin has the uniqueness front down, being the only possible Fire Emblem representative to use magic, or showcase an aspect of the gameplay; specifically versatility. With the exception of the species specific classes of Taguel(hey Yarne!) and Manakete(Nowi and Tiki) Robin has the ability in game to become any class(gender does decide a few of them though) which gives them more variation in skillset than any other character in game, bar male Robin's daughter if you should marry Panne, Nowi or Tiki.

Chrom's best offering is he can use Lances as a secondary. Robin throws lightning bolts, fire blasts, create tornadoes and with a class change they too can use lances. If Sakurai really wants to use uniqueness as a defining feature, Robin must surely be the front runner for Fire Emblem.

Additional customization such as different builds and hair and voices are pointless, and whilst nice so you can recreate your in game Robin, are by no means a necessary. The two default Robins(one male, one female) are good enough without having to screw around with faces and height.

Want: 100%
I'll be honest here, I'm totally converted. People say your first lord is always special but frankly Chrom came off as an absolute idiot who never gets called out on it, whilst claiming it's okay for him to walk into obvious traps because he can just rely on Robin's smarts to get him and his army out of certain death situations. My first lord is certainly special if that's the way he thinks.

Moveset wise Robin has Chrom and Lucina beat in terms of sheer uniqueness with a mixture of swordsplay and magic. They'd add something we haven't seen yet, and really the only possible alternative character to this playstyle would be Isaac, whom like Chrom, I don't see as inevitable as I once did.

Spoilers ahead:

Spoiler

S/he also doubles as an antagonist, thus would be Fire Emblem's first antagonist, first female(optional), first magic user and first NON Lord character in one handy package. Not that it means anything, but Robin certainly allows us a lot of firsts. That's presuming they're not customizable and are the Vanilla Robin options otherwise we get even more firsts in the first customizable character(or joint first if Mii gets in).

For all these reasons I feel Robin is probably the best option overall that we can hope for in a Fire Emblem newcomer.

Don't get me wrong, I still like Roy for bringing FE to our attention to begin with, and he certainly has a shot, but Robin just offers more.

Muddy Mole prediction: 7%?
Takamaru, Lip and Duck Hunt Dog are going to kick it's ass most likely.

Nominations:
Isaac X 5

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Zero Likliness: 10%
Mega Man probably won't get 2 characters anyway, but if it did, Zero would be a likely choice; however, Mega Man is using his classic design in Smash 4, and Zero wouldn't fit with that. It would be like if you had Sonic and Classic Tails. If a second Mega Man rep got in, I would predict it to be Proto Man (though I think he will be an alt for Mega Man).

Zero Want: 45%
He would make an interesting character. Though if Zero got in, I would see him being an alt for Proto Man, while X is an alt for Mega Man.


Robin Prediction: 65%
Robin actually stands a decent chance. Sakurai is looking for unique characters, and if he wants a unique Awakening character, he should go with Robin, since he can technically use almost all things in the game.

Robin Want: 75%
Read above.


Nominations: Reggie X5 and the Luigi's Mansion series as a whole (E. Gadd and/or King Boo) X5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Zero - 0.0000000000000000001%
he is a third party character from the megaman series, he doesn't have a chance in hell (and no I am not making a zero pun)
want - 1%
someone has to break the lines of double zeros
Robin - 28.63%
he/she/something? has got a good line for her, arena fernox stage points towards a awakening character, is pretty popular, customizable even through genders, and can be a unique character that actually got a chance, sadly he/she isn't that big of a main character, which are usually seen as by Lucina and chrom, the only reason its this low, is because of all the competition that fire emblem brings, all along with the possibilities that it might not get a third slot
want - 70%
I never really found the idea of "blue haired swordsman" a problem, though magic gameplay is a welcome, also she/he/it is better than chrom
muddy mole - 7.18%
eh, I think he'll do so-so
nominations:
ikeX5

 

[Smasher 101]

Zero's chances: 0% - Mega Man won't get a second rep.
Want: 0% - I don't actually like Mega Man's games. I thought Mega Man himself was a good choice and I'm absolutely fine with having him, but I don't want a second character. Sorry.

Robin's chances: 10% - I still think Chrom's the frontrunner for an Awakening rep, but I find Robin and Lucina a bit more likely than I used to.
Want: 30% - My least favorite of the Awakening trio. I'm not actually too interested in the magic. Still like Robin though.

Muddy Mole prediction: 6.84%

With Muddy coming up tomorrow all of the characters that I was interested in rating will have had their day. From this point on I'm going to focus on rerates, concepts, and the like.

Let's start with Ike x5.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

With Muddy coming up tomorrow all of the characters that I was interested in rating will have had their day. From this point on I'm going to focus on rerates, concepts, and the like.

Let's start with Ike x5.

I thank you for your contribution to my cause

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Double Zeros for Zero.

Robin: 20% Ironic how my opinion has changed since the most underrated day. Underrated? Yes. Most underrated? No.
Want: 0%

edit: Mole gets 3.5%,
Yarne Owain x 5

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Zero

Chance: 10%
Want: 40% I'm indifferent. Mostly because I don't even know who he is.

Robin

Chance: 60%

The way I see it, Robin has a decent chance of getting in. As people have already said...

• She's unique, a magic and sword user.
• The possible move-sets for her are endless. See the support thread.
• Like WFT and the Villager, Robin can be either gender.
• She's one of, if not the main, protagonist of Awakening.
• She rates high in Japanese polls
• She's a tactician, a recurring custom-able feature in fire emblem games.

Want: 100%

I'm gaga for Robin. I want her as a playable character in Smash Bros. Her back story is bad-ass, and she isn't a blue haired swordsman! As much as I love Chrom, Marth, and Ike, she offers endless possibilities.

Shulk X 5

 

[Louie G.]

ZERO:

Chance: 0%
I'm being completely serious. As cool as it would be, I highly doubt that Capcom gets TWO characters. This goes for every third party character whose company is already represented. Although I would give Tails/Knuckles a little higher because Nintendo and Sega are buddy buddy and you never know, and Bomberman and Simon Belmont due to their long history with Nintendo and decent popularity.

Want: 90%
That being said Zero is a complete badass.

ROBIN:

Chance: 10%
I consider Robin to be one of the most overrated characters on the boards, along with fellow Fire Emblem character Roy. I highly doubt that Sakurai will go for another avatar character, as important to FE:A's story (s)he may be. Robin doesn't really have an established personality, nor is Robin being advertised anywhere for Awakening. While Chrom and Lucina are in Monster Hunter, Robin isn't even on the cover of Awakening. And one may argue that it's because you make Robin look they way you want, but I feel that if Robin did get in Smash, Sakurai would go for that white-haired look with/without the hood. It seems to be the established look for Robin. I just feel like Sakurai will go for an actual character rather than an avatar. Villager doesn't count, since he can basically represent his entire series. Robin cannot do that.

Want: 0%
That being said, the idea of Robin bores me to death. It's an avatar character with magic, big whoop-de-doo. If someone can convince me otherwise give it a shot, but I'm not excited about the idea one bit.

Muddy Mole Prediction: 10.45%
Because why not.

Noms: Halberd x5

 

[Gunla]

Zero the Hero!
Pros
+In the cases of competition, Zero has only Tron Bonne as true competition.
Cons
-We got one Megaman already. Do you EXPECT another one?
-The magical rule of 3rd Party One slot appears to be a thing.

Overall... You see, asking for a second is a little too much. If we got a second one, it'd likely be him. 3%.

Want: YOU DONT'T REALIZE HOW HAPPY I WOULD BE IF HE GOT IN. YOU DON'T EVEN REALIZE. I LOVE MEGAMAN WITH A BURNING PASSION AND STARTED WITH MEGAMAN ZERO. OH GOD, IT IS BEAUTIFUL. SERIOUSLY, THESE CAPS ARE JUSTIFIED FOR THIS COMPLETE BADASS.

I WOULD BE CRYING. I WOULD BE SO HAPPY. 5 STARS, A+, 4 STARS. 100.00%.

Robin- Not **** Grayson.
Pros
+Awakening Character. The game has been incredibly popular and is the newest entry. Note this isn't MUHRECENCY as of much because Chrom is the recency Lord arguement. Robin is something different.
+Diffferent Moveset: Not all FE Characters use Swords.
Cons
-Chrom, although he's too similar to Ike and Marth to really make a difference.
-Lyn. She's a Lord that's not only different than other choices, she's a Lord! And her hair is Green!

Overall... She has an actual shot. S/he's competiting with Chrom and Lyn, but otherwise that is it. 33%

Want: I want him/her or Lyndis. Seriously. Anything over Chrom. 50%

Muddy Mole
I can see it, I can see him being a character rated around... 6.5%.

Who gets my Nominations Today?
A multitude of People, with Ike X5- WAIT WHAT?! ARE WE REALLY GOING TO RATE HIM?!

 

[Alban712]

Zero - 0.5%
Unfortunely two 3rd parties of the same franchise is "overkill" and, even if we have this situation in this game, Sonic takes preference. But if Megaman series recieves another newcomer, he's the frontrunner.
Want - 30%
I like his design and character, but seems odd to appear in this game when Megaman just got revealed.

Robin - 35%
Has tough competition but brings uniqueness, customization and is a very important character from the best selling and most recent game.
Want - 70%
Between the awakening candidates, he/she is the best choice, considering uniqueness and design variation.

Muddy Mole Prediction - 8.6%

Nominations
Six Mario Characters x5

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Zero: 5% It would be higher if they used megaman X. And even so, a third party character is a special thing. I doubt they'd do it twice for one franchise.
want: 50% I like zero. I don't particularly want him in smash but if he was I'd be happy.

Robin:45% No doubt hes the best choice in my opinion. I think there's a chance that he/she will make it but it all depends on what goes through sakurai's mind. If hes goes with a more initial thought, its very possible that he'll simply take the cover lord and put chrom in the game despite there being a less obvious but better choice.
want:1000% Marry sue or not, I dig the whole tome, sword, strategy, hero thing.

I have a lot more to say about this subject, but I'm not going to repeat myself.

Noms
x5 clone newcomers

 

[Zeallyx]

Zero:
Chance: 0%
Explanation: Sakurai stated that one of his reasons for including/excluding characters was based on how iconic they are and as I see it Mega Man beat Zero.
Want: 0%
Explanation: Mega Man is more than enough imo.

Robin:
Chance: 49%
Explanation: Chrom seems to be the more popular and more iconic choice, but Robin is a closer second than some give him credit for as I see it
Want: 49%
Explanation: He'd be cool, certainly, but Chrom would be cooler imo.

 

[Wii Twerk Trainer]

If you're doing it on purpose, your votes will be ignored.

Why wouldn't mine count? I see people giving Zero a 0% on both chances and wants.

 

[NickerBocker]

Why wouldn't mine count? I see people giving Zero a 0% on both chances and wants.

I believe he was referring to your Robin post in which you attack Roy for being "lame-ass." Not to mention your prediction for Muddy Mole leads me to believe that you're either trolling or don't understand how this game works.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

0%: Zero
They call him that for a reason, you know.

Want: 30%
Honestly? I always liked X better.

Robin: 40%
Robin has two big advantages over Chrom and Lucina: One, he/she can use magic, and two, a similar player-created "avatar" appeared in the Japan-only FE12. Still, Robin isn't on the cover of Awakening, and arguably isn't as important as Chrom.

Want: 90%
I've said it many times already: Chrom is BORING, plain and simple.

Nominate:
No Namco character x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Zero
Chance - 0%
If any third party company got a second rep, it'd be Sega getting Tails. No one else deserves it. Besides, like someone else said, Mega Man's design is focused on the NES Mega Man, so if there's a second rep or AT, it'd probably be Proto Man.

Want - 0%
This is one of those characters that I could see were supposed to be big or cool, but could never bring myself to like. I can see why people would want to play as him, but I don't and then there's the principle of wanting Smash to remain mostly Nintendo.

Robin
Chance - 33%
I wrote a huge post on her last time, so I'll keep it brief and give her the same score. A third of a chance since I see an Awakening character happening and it's her, Chrom or Lucina.

Want - 100%
BY FAR, this is the definitive Fire Emblem character. It's like the addition of Pokemon Trainer for Pokemon -- it may not have been the thing most people would expect, but it makes sense. As a Fire Emblem fan, this is the character I want the most from that series and would be seriously disappointed if Sakurai doesn't take advantage of the possibilities.

Prediction
Muddy Mole - 5.7%
I don't know how kind people are going to be to him.

Nominations
x5 Magnus