Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Hippopotasauce]

well this is the rate their chance thread,
maybe if we ask Groose, he can make it happen,
or we can just rate the character as an alternate costume, instead of rating them as an actual character, whatever works

I think that's what concepts are for.

 

[Deleted member]

Ugh, if only there was an Alternate Costume chances rating as well, because then the Doctor would have a better diagnosis.

I think that a concept for specific characters to be an alternate costume is good enough. I bet if an Alternate Costume Chances thread was made, that thread would be locked for being exactly like this one.

 

[Gunla]

I think that a concept for specific characters to be an alternate costume is good enough. I bet if an Alternate Costume Chances thread was made, that thread would be locked for being exactly like this one.

And now I'm going to start, starting tomorrow, voting for the Extensive Alternate Costumes Concept.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Dr. Mario
As an alternate costume
Chance 80%
If were getting alternate costumes, he's a borderline guarantee.
Want 60%

As a playable character
Chance 0.5%
Alternate costumes murdered his chances, and I'd be very surprised if he was his own character.
Want 1%
Waste of a slot.

Rhythm Heaven Character
Chance 18%
I don't know much about Rhythm Heaven, but being a relatively popular misc. series, I can definitely see it getting a rep. I'm just not counting on it.
Want 50%
Indifferent.

Knuckles Prediction 3.4%

Nominations
Excitebiker x10

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Mario
As an alternate costume
Chance 80%

But we're rating him as a character on the roster.

 

[farvin111]

Dr. Mario
Chance: 3%. His time is up.
Want: 10%

Rhythm Heaven rep
Chance: 5%. It's popular in Japan, I give it that, but it's just not a character-oriented series.
Want: 75%. I really think it'd be cool to have one.

Knuckles: 2.13%

x5 Scrooge McDuck

 

[PK_Wonder]

What I really want to see is a Rate the Stage's Chances thread. I wouldn't mind that being the same thread as this, and having stage nominations compete with character ones (with different rankings of course). Stages could be specific and either new or old (i.e. Bowser's Castle, Duck Hunt, Gangplank Galleon, Poke Floats 2, Elemental Lighthouse, Tourian, Luigi's Mansion, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, etc.) or conceptual (Rhythm Heaven stage, Xenoblade Chronicles stage, etc.)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

What I really want to see is a Rate the Stage's Chances thread. I wouldn't mind that being the same thread as this, and having stage nominations compete with character ones (with different rankings of course). Stages could be specific and either new or old (i.e. Bowser's Castle, Duck Hunt, Gangplank Galleon, Poke Floats 2, Elemental Lighthouse, Tourian, Luigi's Mansion, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, etc.) or conceptual (Rhythm Heaven stage, Xenoblade Chronicles stage, etc.)

I was thinking of making just such a thread, twice, one for 3DS and one for Wii U this week . (my current work project airs tomorrow, so I've been too busy to do it just yet). I'll probably start writing up the threads tuesday to go live on wednesday.

Unless ofcourse Groose wants to start it in this thread, in which case I'll make like a beatle and let it be.


EDIT: consensus below seems to believe this is a bad idea, so I'll leave the thought; sorry to PaulKagebin...

 

[Deleted member]

What I really want to see is a Rate the Stage's Chances thread. I wouldn't mind that being the same thread as this, and having stage nominations compete with character ones (with different rankings of course). Stages could be specific and either new or old (i.e. Bowser's Castle, Duck Hunt, Gangplank Galleon, Poke Floats 2, Elemental Lighthouse, Tourian, Luigi's Mansion, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, etc.) or conceptual (Rhythm Heaven stage, Xenoblade Chronicles stage, etc.)

I think that we should rate a stage as well as concepts and characters. That would be really neat to be honest. We can rate possible new stages as well as old stages.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

This thread is in the character discussion section of the boards meaning that the stage discussion would be off topic from the board, and therefore liable to lock.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

What I really want to see is a Rate the Stage's Chances thread. I wouldn't mind that being the same thread as this, and having stage nominations compete with character ones (with different rankings of course). Stages could be specific and either new or old (i.e. Bowser's Castle, Duck Hunt, Gangplank Galleon, Poke Floats 2, Elemental Lighthouse, Tourian, Luigi's Mansion, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, etc.) or conceptual (Rhythm Heaven stage, Xenoblade Chronicles stage, etc.)

I think the problem with this is that stages are far less controversial of a topic and it just wouldn't be as interesting.

A better idea would be to make some kind of topic where stage concepts are nominated, and then posters on the forum discuss what exactly the layout would be like, stage hazards and all that.
You can make it a contest type thing where you vote on which player-created stage layout looks the most fun/balanced/etc.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Has the Groose turned lazy now?

 

[Gunla]

Groose doesn't usually update sundays. While he did note he might, I'd expect it to be late.

 

[Deleted member]

So… did anyone get Super Mario 3D World? I did and I absolutely love the game!

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm going to buy it eventually, probably around Christmas.

 

[Toxicroaker]

So… did anyone get Super Mario 3D World? I did and I absolutely love the game!

Got it, played it, and love it.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

got it, been busy, still not finished Sonic Lost Worlds...

Ratchet and Clank Nexus comes next, then I'll get onto the 3D worlds (for platformers)... probably some time in January after we get the last of the new year ads rolling... Oh, and I've got to try and fit being part of the A Hat In Time alpha in there somewhere too... sometimes I hate Christmas.

 

[Golden Icarus]

So… did anyone get Super Mario 3D World? I did and I absolutely love the game!

I'll probably get it after I get Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, and Wind Waker HD...and a Wii U.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

So… did anyone get Super Mario 3D World? I did and I absolutely love the game!

Got to the final world, got all green stars, golden flags, all that jazz.
Love the game, it's pretty great, I like it better than Galaxy in fact.

"Ya gotta beat every level with all five characters"

 

[Deleted member]

Got to the final world, got all green stars, golden flags, all that jazz.
Love the game, it's pretty great, I like it better than Galaxy in fact.

"Ya gotta beat every level with all five characters"

"Ya gotta beat every level with all five characters"

"Ya gotta beat every level with all five characters"

"Ya gotta beat every level with all five characters"

Y-you're joking, right? Just to access the last world? Well… this is gonna take a long time.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Y-you're joking, right? Just to access the last world? Well… this is gonna take a long time.

No, the last world is unlocked just by getting all the stars/stamps/flags.
I'm not sure what you unlock for beating every level five times over, but it reveals that you have to do so when you beat the second to last world.

 

[Deleted member]

No, the last world is unlocked just by getting all the stars/stamps/flags.
I'm not sure what you unlock for beating every level five times over, but it reveals that you have to do so when you beat the second to last world.

Alright. But, there is a final world. (I checked on MarioWiki) I might beat every level with every character for completion's sake to get whatever super-secret, but it just seems like a lot of work.

If anyone has already done this, please PM me because I would like to know what happens when I beat every level with every character.

EDIT: I searched up what happens. It's not worth the effort.

 

[Seraphim.]

Wow I need to get a Wii U, I'm missing out on everything....

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Wow I need to get a Wii U, I'm missing out on everything....

yep, yes you are . . . .. . . along with me
also looks like the Groose is loose, woohoo!

 

[Groose]

Terribly sorry, folks. I'll update tomorrow, probably in the morning hours. I'll address all concerns, questions, etc. then. I've had a nice few days clearing my head, and I'm looking forward to picking things up as normal tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Terribly sorry, folks. I'll update tomorrow, probably in the morning hours. I'll address all concerns, questions, etc. then. I've had a nice few days clearing my head, and I'm looking forward to picking things up as normal tomorrow.

Alright! I'm glad to see that you enjoyed your time off!
By the way, I made a post earlier before that features every single day thus far while you were away. I hope that it will be of use to you. I will be glad to continually update it as we progress further into the game as long as it's linked in the original post.
Here.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Terribly sorry, folks. I'll update tomorrow, probably in the morning hours. I'll address all concerns, questions, etc. then. I've had a nice few days clearing my head, and I'm looking forward to picking things up as normal tomorrow.

oh, okay mate, take whatever time you need

 

[DarkKry4]

Dr. Mario

Chance - 20%
Want - 0%

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

Knuckles - 2.5%

x5 Tiny Kong

 

[Groose]

I absolutely love this game. But, do you know the worst part about this thread? Let's say you want to know how well a character did on their day, but you have trouble finding their day. It's a pain, right? Or how about finding that post that you made about a character that is currently getting re-rated? Also a pain. So, with major patience, I have compiled the beginning of every single day thus far. From the first day on the old thread with nominating characters to what we are rating now here.

Spoiler

DAY 1 Nominations
DAY 1 Villager, Mega Man, and Wii Fit Trainer
DAY 2 Palutena
DAY 3 Ridley
DAY 4 Issac
DAY 5 King K. Rool
DAY 6 Shulk
DAY 7 Dixie Kong
DAY 8 Pac-Man
DAY 9 Toon Link
DAY 10 Mewtwo
DAY 11 Krystal
DAY 12 Little Mac
DAY 13 Bowser Jr.
DAY 14 Paper Mario
DAY 15 Lucina
DAY 16 Roy
DAY 17 Mii
DAY 18 Owain
DAY 19 Takamaru
DAY 20 Lucario
DAY 21 Ice Climbers
DAY 22 Bandana Dee
DAY 23 Jigglypuff
DAY 24 Lyn
DAY 25 Chrom
DAY 26 Toad
DAY 27 Tingle
DAY 28 Sandbag
DAY 29 Ike
DAY 30 Toon Zelda/Tetra
DAY 31 Dillon
DAY 32 Waluigi
DAY 33 Pokemon Trainer Red and New Pokemon Trainer
DAY 34 Geno
DAY 35 R.O.B.
DAY 36 Ganondorf
DAY 37 Zoroark
DAY 38 Simon Belmont
DAY 39 Masked Man
DAY 40 Vaati
DAY 41 Saki
DAY 42 Medusa
DAY 43 Starfy
DAY 44 Karate Joe AND Ridley
DAY 45 Samurai Goroh
DAY 46 Lucas
DAY 47 Robin
DAY 48 Sonic the Hedgehog
DAY 49 Genesect
DAY 50 Chibi-Robo
DAY 51 Porky
DAY 52 Skull Kid
DAY 53 Lip AND Roy
DAY 54 Professor Layton
DAY 55 Falco
DAY 56 Bomberman
DAY 57 Kamek
DAY 58 Slime
DAY 59 Solid Snake
DAY 60 Mr. Game & Watch
DAY 61 Impa AND Bowser Jr.
DAY 62 Meowth
DAY 63 Duck Hunt Dog
DAY 64 Ghirahim
DAY 65 Rayman AND Dixie Kong
DAY 66 Ashley
DAY 67 Sylveon
DAY 68 Anthony Higgs
DAY 69 Mach Rider
DAY 70 Lloyd Irving
DAY 71 Mike Jones
DAY 72 Primid
DAY 73 Cloud Strife
DAY 74 Black Shadow
DAY 75 Chrom & Lucina
DAY 76 Anna
DAY 77 Wolf AND Lucario
DAY 78 Tom Nook AND Toad
DAY 79 Ephraim
DAY 80 Wonder Red AND Ridley
DAY 81 Sukapon AND Little Mac
DAY 82 Andy
DAY 83 Phoenix Wright
DAY 84 Mask Link (With Deku, Goron, and Zora Masks)
DAY 85 Chancellor Cole
DAY 86 Tharja
DAY 87 Neku & Shiki AND 4 Donkey Kong Characters
DAY 88 Rhythm Monkey AND No Brawl Cuts
DAY 89 Fawful AND King K. Rool
DAY 90 Sheik AND Toon Zelda/Tetra
DAY 91 Victini
DAY 92 Yarne
DAY 93 Donbe & Hikari
DAY 94 Daisy
DAY 95 Captain Rainbow
DAY 96 Ray
DAY 97 Omastar AND Palutena
DAY 98 Dr. Kawashima
DAY 99 Rosalina AND Bandana Dee
DAY 100 Captain Syrup AND Waluigi
DAY 101 Pauline AND Paper Mario
DAY 102 Dark Samus
DAY 103 Dr. Mario AND A Rhythm Heaven Character

Unless there are issues with character space, I will also keep updating this post as we get into more and more days. If you think that this would be a smart idea, I will be glad to do it. This post just needs to be linked on the original post, however.
I mostly did this because I love this game, for stupid chuckles seeing characters that did poorly, looking back old posts for re-rates, and for convenience to find out how well a character did on their day.
If there are any issues, let me know!

As soon as I'm physically able to do so (more on that in my next post), I will make this it's own tab in the OP and will keep it up to date. I had a similar idea awhile back, but I was far too lazy to pull it off; I thank you for your dedication. You're going down in the OP... Still trying to think of a title for you. Again, when I am able to edit it, you will be there.

Doctor Mario's Chances: 5%
Never count the Doctor out. He made it into Melee and was in the coding for Brawl. You may think he isn't worthy, but the developers do. His two enemies are these: time constraints and alternate costumes. The first is a powerful obstacle. The Doc lacks enough uniqueness and draw to be anything other than a last-minute addition, and time constraints did him in in Brawl; chances are they'd do it again. More concerning, however, is alternate costumes; Doctor Mario is the perfect candidate. The only reason they would choose to add him is if they wanted to make the roster look bigger; chances are, he'd just be an alternate costume.

Doc Mario Want: 15%
Nostalgia, mostly. I always thought he was the most badass character in Melee. Also, he could have differences based on his games, which I love; sadly, he'd be more of a carbon clone.

Rhythm Heaven Character: 25%
The greatest obstacle? No obvious choice. No charActer is truly synonymous with the franchise; also, the fanbases don't align very nicely. I think we'll see a stage, but you kinda need an All-Star to be in an All-Star fighting game.

Rhythm Heaven Want: 25%
Interesting, but I'm not sure I'm biting. It's a great series, but nothing screams "I WANT TO PLAY AS THAT GUY!" like with other franchises.

This thread is in the character discussion section of the boards meaning that the stage discussion would be off topic from the board, and therefore liable to lock.

Ugh, don't bore me with details. If we decide to do stages, we decide to do stages. The moderators here are great guys and I'm sure they'd work with is a little bit to at least move the thread to a better location. Also, we wouldn't do exclusively stages, so there would be a bit of an emphasis on characters, too.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

As soon as I'm physically able to do so (more on that in my next post), I will make this it's own tab in the OP and will keep it up to date. I had a similar idea awhile back, but I was far too lazy to pull it off; I thank you for your dedication. You're going down in the OP... Still trying to think of a title for you. Again, when I am able to edit it, you will be there.

how about the organizer?
. . .
no?. . .
. . .
. . . okay . . .

 

[Groose]

So, I'm going to preface the day with a rather brief rant and an apology. I was unable to account for your nominations today. I normally hate making excuses, but I think I have a valid one. I had a operation and that's why I've missed the last couple of days. I'd love to go on the good 'ol PC and update the day as normal, but I can't walk there; I'm still trapped in bed for the most part. I found the hard way that updating the day is difficult to do from a mobile device; doing the nominations is simply impossible. As such, I'm just running off of the current nominations for now. I'll probably try later to incorporate all of your existing votes, but I can make no promises.

Anywho, I'm terribly sorry about that. Give me a few days and I should be back and ready to handle things to my normal capacity. I'll run a poll about stages and stuff after I can get back on my feet, update the music section, and incorporate Brawler610's new section. As of now, however, just bare with me as we run things kinda loosely.

So, without further ado...

Dr. Mario (Super Mario)
7.10% chance
18.01% want

Normally, veterans are revered in this game; unfortunately for the Doc, he's the exception to this rule. Both of his scores are well on the bottom of the Veteran's ladder... Ouch. Maybe someday in the future we'll rate his chance as an alternate costume, eh?

Rhythm Heaven Character
14.29% chance
37.98% want

Poor Rhythm Heaven. It pops up time and time again in this game, but it's results are never better than mediocre. Interestingly enough, its shot at a character is only slightly larger than the shot ofKarate Joe, according to you; could Joe demand a rerate?

Today we'll be rating Knuckles. Fortunately, there aren't a lot of knuckleheads on this board, so we should get an accurate rating. Please rate Knuckles in chance and want.

WARNING! Challenged Re-approaching! Lucina is up again today. Please rate Lucina's chance of getting her own character slot in both chance and want. Has the reveal of Marth hurt her odds? Yes, I'm aware she isn't quite to 100 nominations yet, but I figured I'd toss her up as an apology about my recent service here. This day may also be extended; I wanted to give you some meat to rate, y'know?

Tomorrow we'll be rating Aeron, a protagonist of the game Pandora's Tower. Will Operation Rainfall help him make the cut? Please predict how Aeron will dare in tomorrow's game. I'm not sure who won the extra nominations and I apologize as this part of the game may be down for a few days.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Knuckles Chance: 1.5% Seems like a possibility, but not needed.
Knuckles Want: 35% I don't really care what happens with the Sonic series.
Lucina chance: 17.5% She has a neat chance, but only as one of the last minute semi-clones.
Lucina Want: 45%
Aeron Prediction: 6.57% I have no clue about the game.
Nominations:
x5 Nintendog

 

[LoneKonWolf]

So, I'm going to preface the day with a rather brief rant and an apology. I was unable to account for your nominations today. I normally hate making excuses, but I think I have a valid one. I had a operation and that's why I've missed the last couple of days. I'd love to go on the good 'ol PC and update the day as normal, but I can't walk there; I'm still trapped in bed for the most part. I found the hard way that updating the day is difficult to do from a mobile device; doing the nominations is simply impossible. As such, I'm just running off of the current nominations for now. I'll probably try later to incorporate all of your existing votes, but I can make no promises.

Anywho, I'm terribly sorry about that. Give me a few days and I should be back and ready to handle things to my normal capacity. I'll run a poll about stages and stuff after I can get back on my feet, update the music section, and incorporate Brawler610's new section. As of now, however, just bare with me as we run things kinda loosely.

ah no worries mate, what happens, happens.
there just nothing that can be done . . .
. . .
but though it does look like you could use some help there mate, . . . want me to help?
I can't update the OP, but I can keep a track of things until you get back to optimal condition mate,
like count up the nominations, and do the who wins the extra nominations and what not, and even do the even the scores mate.
i'm offering, but if you don't want to accept mate that is up to you, but till then . . .

 

[Groose]

I can handle the scores without a problem. If you wish to help with the nominations, however, that's be great. I'm not sure how exactly you'd manage to do them and keep them in sync swith me, but I'd be indebted to your help. Maybe try PMing them to me or something?

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I can handle the scores without a problem. If you wish to help with the nominations, however, that's be great. I'm not sure how exactly you'd manage to do them and keep them in sync swith me, but I'd be indebted to your help. Maybe try PMing them to me or something?

okay mate, sounds good, let me get through with last day, and I'll send them to you,
oh, and don't feel indebted or anything, I'm just an average helping out community member

 

[FalKoopa]

Groose, you forgot to nominate Tingle.

And the poll is gone, as you asked.

Anyways,
Knuckles:
Likelihood: 0%
Even if Sonic were to get multiple characters, Tails and Eggman are more important to the series. And we're not getting 4 Sonic reps anytime soon.

Want: 0%
I don't hate him, but him getting in over Snake, Pac-Man, or even Bomberman would make me question the direction of the game.

Lucina:
Likelihood: 5%
Both Chrom and Robin seem more likely to me. And we're not getting more than one character from Awakening, methinks.

Want: 0%
Not interested. Roy, Robin, Anna, Lyn are above her in my FE want list.

Tingle x 5

 

[FalKoopa]

@Lonekonwolf
if you are planning to count the nominations, send them to me. I'll edit them in.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Knuckles - 0.33%
lets be realistic here, sonic is already in, Sega won't get another rep, and you want the THIRD hero in? over someone like tails or dr. eggman? as pointless as adding another sonic character already is, its just be worst adding knuckles in there
want - 10%
I did like playing as him before, but that doesn't mean I want him in
Lucina - 0.215
if your name isn't marth, roy, ike, lyn, or chrom, you basically have no chance, along with alt. costumes being confirmed, ya she is screwed
want - 50%
was indifferent, still am today
Areon - 5.14%
who? I have no idea who he is, lets go on the internet and look around. . . .
Nominations:
dark pitX1
RoyX4
attention everyone! I have the winner of the prediction for Docter. Mario!
the winer for the prediction is . . . . Cheezybites! congratulations mate, you have 5 extra nominations at your disposal .

@Lonekonwolf
if you are planning to count the nominations, send them to me. I'll edit them in.

okay mate, I'll send them to ya right now

 

[loganhogan]

Knuckles
chance 0% maybe if this were a crossover, but as a second Sonic character still can't see Knuckles happening.
want 0%

Lucina
chance 25% She does not seem as likely as Chrom but there's still a chance.
want 100% I like Lucina.

x5 Tiny Kong

 

[Seraphim.]

Knuckels

Chance: 7% It could happen, but he would have to go against Tails.
Want:75%

Lucina:
Chance: 25%
Want:100% Out of all the Awakening choices she's my favorite I would love for her to be playable as well as Roy, sadly it looks like we will be forced to get Chrom or Robin if Awakening does get a character.

Aeron: 7%

Chrom x5