That's one of the shortcomings of statistics, Erimir. They're very useful things, and I'm very glad that you're putting them to use here, but they can't account for EVERYTHING. Metroid hasn't sold particularly great, but it has some things up its sleeve that kind of throw off your calculations. First of all, it's a critically acclaimed series. Super Metroid and Metroid Prime are pretty regular customers on "Top 50 Games of All Time" lists; other games in the series are also noted for quality. While critical acclaim isn't anywhere near as important as sales, it does need to be considered.
Well, I... kinda... explicitly said that I didn't agree with them. So I didn't say they accounted for everything. I agree that Metroid has more influence than its sales might lead you to believe. I pretty much went with what I would've said without the model on that one.
Also if I get bored some day, I might add critical reception to the model, see if it helps any
That might give an idea how true that is. Of course, old game ratings are a bit spotty, and there are re-release ratings... probably more work than it's worth.
Now, please don't take me for a Metroid fanboy; I'm anything but that. When I was a lad, I played and vaguely enjoyed the first two Prime games, but I didn't consider them anything special (I obviously have to go back and play them again now that I'm older). Metroid Fusion and Super Metroid were great games, as was the original, but they're FAR from my favorites of all time. Noneteheless, I see the cultural impact of the series and I note that another character is fitting; I think Ridley would be amazing to play as, so I'm supporting him.
Well, based on that it's likely that I like Metroid more than you. I gave Ridley a pretty good chance, based on his popularity and Metroid's importance. Sakurai's prior statements unfortunately hurt and Ridley
would be difficult to implement. So I'm not as bullish as some. But I don't need my model to tell me Dark Samus is unlikely, I just like including its predictions to add more information, not to slavishly follow it.
Anyway...
Dr Mario
Popularity: Ummmm... Well, Dr. Mario is a well-known and I think well-liked game. I like it anyway. It's got two great tunes (which have already appeared in Smash).
Relevancy: Well, Dr. Mario has tended to appear on most Nintendo consoles. The Virtual Console and eShop/WiiWare has made it unnecessary to even do much. But Dr. Mario is kinda like Tetris... omnipresent, but not generally making a splash.
Design: He's a clone. They could add some more medical themed stuff, but there's not a whole lot there.
Alternate costumes: This really hurts, because Dr. Mario is a perfect choice for this. He's just Mario in a doctor outfit, so it's not short-shrifting a character to make him a costume. Re-skin the fireballs as pills, change the sound effects... and voilà!
Dr Mario chances: 1%
Only if Sakurai gets in a rush to add more characters. Otherwise, if they considered him, it'd be pretty hard not to just look at the male Wii Fit Trainer and say... he'd make a great alt costume. Being a veteran and part of the Forbidden 7 keeps him from being a zero.
Dr Mario want: 10%
As a character. 100% as an alternate costume.
There's also the fact that it's twice as successful as both Golden Sun and Sin and Punishment, both of which get extremely optimistic support from people, and more successful than Punch-Out, Starfy (another Japanese-centric character), and Custom Robo (whose Ray received tons of support regardless of relative obscurity), although I admit Punch-Out wins in terms of sheer iconic status.
Citations needed.
My calculations show:
Punch-Out ~4.3 million (possibly more, sales figures for the SNES game are hard to find) in sales
Rhythm Heaven: >4.2 million
Golden Sun ~3 million
Starfy 2.1 million
Custom Robo >1.3 million
Sin & Punishment ~0.5 million
Seems unlikely that it's twice as many sales as Golden Sun, and it's way more than twice as many as Sin & Punishment and the way you ordered those comparisons makes it look like you think Custom Robo and Starfy have more sales than Golden Sun.
In an era after Villager and Wii Fit Trainer, saying that the series doesn't lend itself to a fighter sells Sakurai and his team short
I think people are overinterpreting the inclusion of those two.
They're also among Nintendo's best-selling series. Animal Crossing has 4-6 times the sales, Wii Fit about twice that of AC. Villager was not be
disqualified by AC not lending itself to a fighter - that doesn't mean that he wasn't hurt by it. It seems likely to me that if AC only had 4 million in sales, the chances of Villager surmounting that problem would've been a lot lower. Wii Fit Trainer is even more strange a choice, of course, but the difference between her and Rhythm Heaven characters? Everyone knows Wii Fit. She's a "WTF" character but that "WTF" most definitely does not stand for "
Who the ****?".
Rhythm Heaven character chance: 8.5%
So the thing is that Rhythm Heaven doesn't have amazing sales. They're good enough to get a character if it were more conventional, of course. But combine that with the unconventional aspects, and I think we have a low chance. Promoting Rhythm Heaven through a stage?
Absolutely. Promoting the series doesn't require giving it a character slot.
One problem is that it's not a combat-based series, which hurts a bit. And it's also not well-known in the West, which hurts too. It doesn't have an obvious mascot, which hurts a little bit (since it makes a "who the ****?" reaction more likely). And creating a character that's fun to play as that incorporates rhythm in a game where the music will have nothing to do with the Rhythm Heaven character seems a much harder task to me than others think. And to be honest, the characters just don't look that interesting to me. The crude line drawing style for Karate Joe might work in Rhythm Heaven, I'm not sure it's as appealing outside of it. Despite the lower sales, an Elite Beat Agent would make a much more appealing character, and probably has better move set potential as well.
Rhythm Heaven want: 5%
I'd much rather series with interesting characters get new reps. Rhythm Heaven would be great for a new stage though.
Knuckles: 0.5%
I dunno why anyone would think this would happen, but someone will. Sneak peek of my scores: 0_0
Nominations:
5x Young Link
