Villains Trailer: 85%
On the one hand Metaknight can no longer be in it, but on the far far bigger other hand Ganondorf wasn't revealed today, so he can...
So why do I think this is so high? Well it's a simple matter of who's left that I think is in the game and hype/surprise worthy enough to be one of the last reveals:
Mewtwo
Sceptile
(Sceptile would be more an excuse to get Mewtwo a trailer as he could even be considered not a villain, though I think Sceptile's got a decent shot anyway)
Shulk
(Japan's number 1)
Marshall/Rhythm Heaven
(to shock and amaze everyone who hasn't been following the speculation trail as much as us)
Rayman
Slime
Snake
etc. (a third party, but at this stage Rayman probably is the biggest thanks to the PotD)
Reworked Ganondorf
Possible Black Shadow
(a lot of people want the former and Japan wants the latter, if it gets a trailer it's gotta be Black Shadow, but as a more likely general reveal (via Smash Direct) Ganondorf could be on his lonesome)
Ridley
K.Rool (or maybe dixie kong, but rally K.Rool would be the one to bring the hype)
Bowser Jr.
The last three are probably the biggest (US number 1, World number 1, and Mario franchise star power) for getting the hype up, and Ganon/Shadow or Mewtwo could all fit in a villains trailer too, as could a bunch of vets... Given that the majority of the potential big reveals are villains, there's not all that long before the game's release, and the final marketting push needs to be huge for a game that's been getting marketted constantly for a year and half now...
They've got to get massive momentum in those last two weeks, and just given the list of hype inducing characters I don't see another way they can get the momentum they need to get this out of the gate the way they need to.
Want: 50%
I'd personally prefer each character get their own Trailer and for them to have been more regular so people would have ridden the hype train all the way along... but I do understand the decision, and I too would leave some big hitters 'till the final Direct.
3rd party AT: 30%
I kind of think that's what Rayman is, but I'm not putting any stock in it... it would be a good way to hype up in the final Direct, but I just feel it won't happen
Want: 100%
I would love to be wrong though!
Seeing King Arthur or Caedeus (well, MH monster would do) make an outing from Capcom, NiGHTs or someone from Sega (if Arle Nadja, or even Amitie would be ATs that might possibly be more exciting than Slime being such), Layton, Rayman, Ryu Hayabusa, or obviously for me Slime if he isn't playable (next time!!)... god there are so many exciting options, it could be amazing!!
Music: 35.5%
I don't know how people rate music...
Tecmo Koei Link: 1.11%
Dragon Quest*5