Thereallucario
Smash Journeyman
Thanks for cautching that. I for got to add Non- to it. it will be edited at some point. Guess isaac got to my head.Snake wouldn't be a newcomer...
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Thanks for cautching that. I for got to add Non- to it. it will be edited at some point. Guess isaac got to my head.Snake wouldn't be a newcomer...
Wow, that Mewtwo chance is a bit... optimistic.King K. RoolSchedule:
60.49% chance (was 53.62%)
80.84% want (was 80.53%)
No monkey with a ponytail is capable of committing regicide; even though Dixie's chance score went up, K. Rool's managed to rise as well. Oddly, his want score remained virtually identical to what it was before.Unfortunately, that just isn't good enough; he's now exactly a tenth of a percent behind Shulk for the title of our most wanted newcomer.
And, as I was typing Mewtwo's section, we had a late rating come in from Arcanir. Just as I always include ratings made after I end the day but before I start the next one, I included his. The result? His want rose by a fifth of a percent, and he defeated Shulk. Sorry, Shulk, but the future of the title "Most Wanted" doesn't belong to you.
Mewtwo
75.56% chance (was 66.93%)
78.18% want (was 78.21%)
As with K. Rool, Mewtwo's chance score increased by nearly ten percent. As with K. Rool, Mewtwo's want score remained almost identical to what it was before. Seriously, it's scary how closely we were able to replicate our previous want scores. That's amazing from a statistical point of view... it's like cloning data.
Today it's time for Snake and Isaac. Yesterday I hinted that there was some reason I grouped the two of them together for today's rating. I was making stuff up as I went along--I have no idea why I grouped the two together! Anyway, please rate Isaac of Golden Sun and Solid Snake of Metal Gear in chance and want.
Tomorrow? It's time for some Super Mario discussion! Please predict how Doctor Mario and Bowser Jr. will fare! Also note that nominations are still on hold, and that Pichu has been replaced by Black Shadow on our schedule.
Day 279: Shulk, Chorus Kids, and Gematsu
Day 280: Dark Pit and RoyDay 281: Dixie Kong and Lucas
Day 282: K. Rool and Mewtwo
Day 283: Snake and Isaac
Day 284: Dr. Mario and Bowser Jr.
Day 285: Takamaru and Black Shadow
He was talking about Roy Campbell/ColonelSnake
Chance:
-Main Roster: 30%
-As DLC: 15%
I want to say we've seen all of SSB4's third party reps. The whole nature of a cross-company character is such a big deal that they'd say something...and yet Hideo Kojima has said he's heard nothing (although it could be a smokescreen). Nintendo and Konami have been on less friendly terms since Brawl's time, and the only Metal Gear Solid game that's made it to a Nintendo system since was a remake that didn't even feature the Snake in question. Besides, wasn't there talk of Kojima wanting to "retire" Snake as a character out of respect for his late Japanese voice actor?
Snake:
Chance: 77%
I’ve been planning this one for days. Many of these inspired by the lovable Snake thread:
[Collapse=Positives]
Praised as a “Superb addition” by Sakurai, the first third party character in Smash Bros, not overshadowed by Sonic to Sakurai, Sakurai hates cuts.
Goes without saying. He’s pretty important to Smash Bros. Nearly every interview that mentioned third-party before 2014 had Sakurai mention “Snake and Sonic”, so he’s not bias in one direction. Sakurai knows there’s a great fanbase for every character in Smash Bros, and I’m sure it would punish him to cut Snake, especially since his inclusion made a different audience want to play the game.
Metal Gear Solid 3D came out a few months before development started.
One of the best things he has going for him, and the perfect reason “He’s not on Nintendo” means nothing. Kid Icarus Uprising and Fire Emblem Awakening came out slightly before development started, and they’re getting a great bundle of love in this game. It’s definitely an ace for why Snake may return (or Big Boss will take his place), especially considering how much love that game got from Nintendo (You could shotgun Yoshi!). His current status with MGSV wouldn’t mean anything, unless they’ll axe him mid development for not watering it down for Wii U (like MGS4, rite?)
Sakurai’s 2012 tweet:
This tweet means, in early development phases, Metal Gear was on his mind. So he didn’t forget about Snake. Hey, I thought his Crush 40 tweet meant Sonic was returning, and I thought his Shulk tweet meant Shulk was joining, and look how that’s going!
Nobody saying “No”
This is another good point. Watch the Smash Bros talk at about 28:43 in the video:
And watch around 6:45 of this video:
Notice: These 2 have not said flat out “no”. “IDK” and “Um…we have not announced um…Solid Snake yet” were the responses. So his chances aren’t hurt by it at all, and we can give him brownie points for not getting killed off yet.
Also, that laughter was uncanny. I won’t bring that up into a factor, since maybe Kojima laughed at the random question, but I do think it’s the “hiding something” kind of laughter.
Choking animation:
This one is somewhat of a push, but if people bring up “sleep is in this game” in favor of Jigglypuff, then I shall bring this up:
See how Fox is grasping for his neck? It’s similar to the animation characters used while grabbed by Snake in Brawl. That was literally the only time that animation was ever used in Brawl, to my memory.
Now think, they brought tripping back and its primarily used by Diddy Kong, but also appears in some other ways such as the Tingle AT (I think)…this can be a case of recycling animations/mechanics for an item that are also used in a moveset.
Rayman trophy:
Okay, this is only worth a mention: If they went out to Ubisoft just for a Rayman trophy, why would they not go out to Konami for a popular fighter? Its only worth a mention since it can be nothing, but its pretty bad if they only went to Ubisoft for that but didn't do a thing with Konami.
[/collapse]
[collapse=Negatives]
…Or negative counters.
“He doesn’t fit.”
*Sigh* Smash Bros is a crossover. It’s never been about fitting in when choosing the roster; they make the character fit in. I will admit, his neck snapping was a little harsh for this type of game, but if they had that before, I doubt this would suddenly be a reason Sakurai won’t add him in again. Compared to some of the stuff he does in Metal Gear, the stuff he does in SSB isn’t that out of place either.
“He’s not on Nintendo.”
Read: Positives: Metal Gear Solid 3D.
“Kojima said idk.”
Actually, Trolljima said “(Uncanny asian laughter) idk!” As mentioned, Kojima could have just said flat out “No” if he knew he’s out, and couldn’t if he was in. Not to mention, a Sega developer and Namco developer said the exact same thing on Sonic and Pac-Man, so it really doesn’t hurt his chance.
“Shiek stole his grenades; Zero Suit Samus stole his Final Smash!”
I know. This is why I give up. It’s done. Snake will never return! They gave similar attacks to other fighters! Goodbye, Snake, you will never join again because of these copycat chicks.
“He hasn’t been revealed yet. They would have revealed him before Pac-Man if he was still in.”
Oh really? Really?! Watch, there will be a live stream, be it for an event or Nintendo Direct, where the world will explode with surprise as soon as they hear:
“Kept you waiting, huh?”
“He’s Third Party.”
And this is the only reason I can’t give him a higher score. Third Party isn’t as easy to get as others after all. However, I doubt it’ll be that much of a problem if Sakurai can get Rayman just for a trophy. Also, I believe the limit to 3 3rd party characters exist as much as the 2 FE character limit does: False crap made by the Smash community. There is no limit, at least low enough to squeeze a veteran in.
…In case you didn’t get it, there’s pretty much no real negative against him besides being third party. I suppose people can take the Kojima comment the other way though.[/collapse]
Want:
100% I don't say that just because his Brawl appearance got me into MGS, but because he deserves it completely. As the first third party character and the one who brings out the most variety to the table, the game just won't feel right without Snake, and it would surpass Brawl in every way to me if Snake returns.
-That whole biz with refusing to port MGS onto the Wii U hasn't aided his chance any either.
There's wrong stuff in there.Snake:
Chance: 70%. I would give a 100% rating, but it concerns me that he hasn't been shown yet. Nevertheless, Snake doesn't really have a reason to sit this one out. I'm sure Kojima and Sakurai are still pals or whatever, if that's a factor, which it probably is.
But Solid Snake is, honestly, in quite a similar situation to the one he was in before Brawl.
Consider this:
2007: Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater, exclusive to Nintendo Gamecube, and upcoming Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, exclusive to Playstation 3 and Xbox 360.
2013: Meta Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 3D, exclusive to Nintendo 3DS, and Metal Gear Solid 5: The Phantom Pain, exclusive to (surprise) Playstation 4 and Xbox One.
My point? Snake's games have always been multiplatform, and in both instances, he's had a game exclusive to non-Nintendo platforms.
So that point is probably null.
Probably should have added a disclaimer that I don't know all the details and I probably missed something.There's wrong stuff in there.
Metal Gear Solid 4 was exclusive to the Playstation 3. So Metal Gear Solid 5 going multiplatform but intentionally avoiding the Wii U does count as a punch to the crotch.
Also, I don't know why people consider a remake exclusive to be a big deal when the original found success on a different console.
Also, back in Brawl days Nintendo wasn't struggling with third party companies completely abandoning them in droves.
Also, back in Brawl days Nintendo didn't have the situation of Sony and Microsoft DIRECTLY aiming at their user base. (Which matters because presence in smash = promotion, and promoting Snake = selling more PS4s or XBones. No one in their right mind would consider that a reasonable business choice.)
Also, back in Brawl days, Nintendo was swimming in money from the Wii and didn't have to even bother using Smash and Mario Kart as a salvation charm. The marketing reality of Smash is completely different right now.
Also, back in Brawl days, Nintendo wasn't using Smash Bros as a hype wagon for all their games and third party reveals didn't come with huge Virtual Console promotion.
Also, back in Brawl days, there weren't three other third party characters for Snake to compete with.
Also, back in Brawl days Snake was revealed immediately with all the hype a third party should carry. Now we're talking about Snake chances less than two months from the game's release.
My point? The situation is not at all the same. It's very different.
Ok, I bit in that instance, but I'm not biting anymore. Snake arguments aren't my cup of tea and they send me to berserk mode like Dee does to others. I'll see you all after this is all done.
Golden Sun is smaller than Xenoblade and Advance Wars? WTF?! The series has sold far more than both of those other franchises. Yes, Advance Wars is very long-running. But the games have never sold well.Snake is a clone too,but not of Mew:
Chance: 50% Smiling Kojima, but I also think Sakurai thinks of the current 3 as enough.
Want: 75% He was a veteran and I want to see him back to mess with everybody again.
ISAAC. ISAAC? ISAAAAAAC!
Chance: 30%
While Sakurai searches for new series and his AT hasn't been seen, I just think roster space will kill him, since his serie is smaller than Advance Wars, Rhythm Heaven and Xenoblade (which got a whole Operation for it)
Want: 60% And that's pushing it.
But he has great fans and GS deserves a character for senority.
Back to tommorow:
Dr. Mario: 6.7%
Bowser Jr: 8%
Even then it's not very convincing. Golden Sun in 3 games made 3.7 by VGChartz, and Xenogears/saga/blade chronicles has only made a combined 5.03 across 7 games, 3 franchises and 4 publishers...The only way Golden Sun is smaller than Xenoblade is if you count the entire Xeno series, but Nintendo doesn't own them (as far as I'm aware), so they don't count.
Don't put stock in VGChartz, but thanks for that tidbit. Golden Sun, regardless of Dark Dawn, is plenty popular enough to get playable representation in over Xenoblade.Even then it's not very convincing. Golden Sun in 3 games made 3.7 by VGChartz, and Xenogears/saga/blade chronicles has only made a combined 5.03 across 7 games, 3 franchises and 4 publishers...
Whoops, should've done my research, thanks for the reminder.Golden Sun is smaller than Xenoblade and Advance Wars? WTF?! The series has sold far more than both of those other franchises. Yes, Advance Wars is very long-running. But the games have never sold well.
Xenoblade? That's TWO games (one isn't even out yet), and the first sold way less than both the first two Golden Sun games (yes I know Dark Dawn sold like ****). No, I'm not using VGChartz, this is actually the sales numbers listed on Wikipedia, and NPD didn't even track Xenoblade's sales at all.
The only one of those three that does beat Golden Sun is Rhythm Heaven. The only way Golden Sun is smaller than Xenoblade is if you count the entire Xeno series, but Nintendo doesn't own them (as far as I'm aware), so they don't count.
Not condemning your ranking or whatever, just getting the facts straight.
Again, "not condemning your ranking, just getting the facts straight." Its all good.Whoops, should've done my research, thanks for the reminder.
I won't change my score though, since I don't see Isaac chances near the 50/50
I don't blame Konami for not releasing MGS5 on Wii U cause Nintendo fans are like They Complain that the game not coming to the Wii U they don't buy it. look at all the Ubisoft games they sold like crap!!There's wrong stuff in there.
Metal Gear Solid 4 was exclusive to the Playstation 3. So Metal Gear Solid 5 going multiplatform but intentionally avoiding the Wii U does count as a punch to the crotch.
Also, I don't know why people consider a remake exclusive to be a big deal when the original found success on a different console.
Also, back in Brawl days Nintendo wasn't struggling with third party companies completely abandoning them in droves.
Also, back in Brawl days Nintendo didn't have the situation of Sony and Microsoft DIRECTLY aiming at their user base. (Which matters because presence in smash = promotion, and promoting Snake = selling more PS4s or XBones. No one in their right mind would consider that a reasonable business choice.)
Also, back in Brawl days, Nintendo was swimming in money from the Wii and didn't have to even bother using Smash and Mario Kart as a salvation charm. The marketing reality of Smash is completely different right now.
Also, back in Brawl days, Nintendo wasn't using Smash Bros as a hype wagon for all their games and third party reveals didn't come with huge Virtual Console promotion.
Also, back in Brawl days, there weren't three other third party characters for Snake to compete with.
Also, back in Brawl days Snake was revealed immediately with all the hype a third party should carry. Now we're talking about Snake chances less than two months from the game's release.
My point? The situation is not at all the same. It's very different.
Ok, I bit in that instance, but I'm not biting anymore. Snake arguments aren't my cup of tea and they send me to berserk mode like Dee does to others. I'll see you all after this is all done.
While Sakurai said that he hasn't planned to cut anyone, he also said that he doesn't have the time to bring every character in Smash back into SSB4. This mean that cuts are inevitable.
Kojima messing with others is definitely something that he is known for, but how about I play devil's advocate. Now, he smiled when he said this quote; this means that he knows something we don't and possibly that he could be in Smash. However, what if Kojima didn't expect a question like this during that livestream? What if he smiled at the irony or something? It's possible that he is going to give no hope to Snake returning to make his return more glorious, but he could possibly not be in the game.
Now, why is Snake at a low score?
Snake isn't that obvious to me as Sonic is. If 3rd parties are going to be a thing in future games, Sonic is practically guaranteed; Snake can't match to the hype, fandom, and demand Sonic has. Remember why Brawl was delayed? It was to put Sonic in the game. Snake was put in by personal request and wasn't demanded prior to E3 2006. Fans enjoyed his inclusion and are demanding for him to return; this helps in his favor. However, this barely changes the fact that he is in the most danger of getting cut.
Konami doesn't have the best relationship with Nintendo right now it seems like. They outright dismissed the Wii U and aren't putting any retail or digital games on the system. Oh wait... they are! But... they are old-school Castlevania games. Heck, a Castlevania game on the 3DS got an HD remake on the Xbox 360 and PS3... but not the Wii U. Same case with MGSV; every system is getting this game... except for the Wii U. Nintendo, on the other hand, are struggling right now with the Wii U. Snake would be a massive double-edged sword. While Snake will get mature fans to buy the Wii U, owners of the Wii U could potentially buy an Xbox or PlayStation to play MGSV, which would hurt Nintendo in the process. From a business standpoint, this is rather risky. While Sakurai can put in Snake on his own accord, I bet that there could be outside influences that are probably going to stand in and prevent his inclusion.
Lastly, we don't know how many 3rd party characters will get in. If there are 4, Snake will definitely get in. If there are 3, then he is absolutely screwed. Why? Because of Pac-Man. I bet that Pac-Man would be at a higher priority than Snake is. Namco is working on the game and I bet that they would like to get represented in Smash in some form and Pac-Man has a great amount of demand to him. Pac-Man is nearly inevitable at this point; he is most likely going to get in (90%), meaning Snake has to hope for 4 slots. Since Sakurai said that there won't be too many 3rd party characters, 3 seems like a safe bet.
Overall, I cannot see Snake get in Smash at all.
To add on, not seeing Snake in the Direct is very, very concerning. As such, I had to adjust my rating. With Ground Zeroes being released recently, you think that Sakurai would confirm him... but he didn't. Granted, it would make sense that he didn't because that would be promoting a game on rival consoles. It's important to note that the Special Flag item is in this game, which would most likely be Namco's equivalent to the Assist Trophy where Namco characters are summoned. This helps Pac-Man's case even more so as it shows that Namco would definitely receive higher priority than Konami (though, that fact was a given) (Pac-Man currently has a 93% from me). One minor thing to note is that Snake is no longer the Brawl veteran that is in the most danger of getting cut; Squirtle and Ivysaur are as Transformations are removed (Snake's 8% to Squirtle's and Ivysaur's 7%). Also, I am not lowering my score because Sheik is now using grenades.
EDIT: One more thing that I want to mention is that we have seen a recent trend with the newcomers. Characters like Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, and Rosalina are all uprising characters that have a future with Nintendo. The same can be said for revived newcomers like Palutena and the confirmed Little Mac as well as possible newcomers like Shulk and Chrom. These characters are not only popular, but they can promote their games on Nintendo consoles. This same thing is extended to Sonic; he was in Brawl, but he definitely has a future with Nintendo and he can help promote the Wii U. Snake doesn't really have a future with Nintendo and putting him in would promote a rival console, which wouldn't be good at all when the Wii U is in a troubled state.
I will give Snake one more chance. If he isn't revealed at E3 this year, I am considering him to be done and just give him a 1% chance.
Want: 0%Well, it looks like Sakurai has proven me wrong. When I said that last statement, I was sure that we would get a summer release. Now that the game has been delayed, August is now his last stand. If he isn't confirmed then, he's done.
I'm more skeptical on Snake because of how the Pac-Man reveal was handled and how Sakurai has been promoting it. Sakurai has been emphasizing the battle between Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man, four of gaming's biggest icons. The fact that they are doing this and Snake is absent? I'm highly questioning if he did make it in the game or not.
I might be proven wrong in the August Direct, so we'll see then.
MONADO, FLAME SHIELD ME!I just want to reiterate something. I don't hate Snake. I like Snake. He is a freaking awesome character and I absolutely love his moveset! I still play as him sometimes in Brawl! Regardless... I want to see him go. When it comes to 3rd party characters, my mindset is to have 2 permanent members on the roster, being Sonic and Mega Man, and maybe have 1 or 2 rotate in between (if Bomberman makes it in, make that 3 permanent members).
Now, there are a multitude of reasons why I don't want Snake in Smash:
1. In a game about Nintendo's All-Stars, he isn't one at all and he is more of a Sony character. I can heavily justify Sonic and Mega Man; they both absolutely deserve to be in Smash and they are like Nintendo characters despite not being owned by them. Pac-Man, I can't justify too much, but he still has a rich history with Nintendo. Snake barely has any connection with Nintendo and yet he got in. It makes me mad as it contradicts what this game is about.
2. Snake getting cut gives me a good reason to go back and play Brawl. I was mystified when Mewtwo was cut as he shouldn't have been. The others, however, were fairly predictable cuts. If I want to play as Dr. Mario, Young Link, Pichu, and Roy, it gives me a good reason to play Melee. Snake getting cut would give me more of a reason to still play Brawl.
3. Let's say that what Kojima says is true and that Snake is not in the game. If that is the case, then I definitely don't want him to return. In Brawl, Sonic's addition not only delayed the game, but it resulted in Mewtwo and Roy getting cut. When I found this out, I was upset, but I didn't mind it in the end because Sonic was a character that I was wanting, hoping, and expecting to get in Smash. If Snake gets in Smash, he may potentially delay the game and might cut veterans that shouldn't be cut or result in removing a newcomer that we would have been looking forward to. The payoff to bring him back is not worth it in the long run.
4. I have a dream. My dream is Bomberman getting in Smash and fighting against Luigi, Mario, and Sonic, my childhood heroes. If Snake got cut, the pathway for Bomberman getting in Smash slightly opens for him. I've waited for 15 years for him to get into Smash; I want this wait to end already. Why did you die on me, Hudson? ;-;
That is why I want Snake to get cut. It's critical for me that he is. I will sympathize with the Snake fans and mains, but I want him gone.